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KU

Kansas 49 at Cincinnati 16

CIN
2023 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2023 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadKU aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreKU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:53 · Mason Fletcher punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Luke Grimm at the KU 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 46Home team on offense−2.0Pregame prior−17.5Score differential−0.7Garbage-time factor−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:26: Emory Jones pass complete to Ryan Montgomery for 11 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK) — CIN win probability +10.9 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 0:05: Jason Bean pass complete to Mason Fairchild for 26 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK) — KU win probability +11.3 pts (now 81%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:53: Devin Neal 30 Yd Run (Seth Keller Kick) — KU win probability +11.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:23: Dee Wiggins 7 Yd pass from Ryan Montgomery (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — CIN win probability +10.0 pts (now 19%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:39: Jason Bean 43 Yd Run (Seth Keller Kick) — KU win probability +9.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 7 of 8KU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 15:00CIN 4th & 1 at KU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    33.3%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    33.3%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:12CIN 4th & 2 at KU 31, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.4%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    36.2%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:29KU 4th & 7 at CIN 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:13CIN 4th & 12 at CIN 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:21KU 4th & 5 at CIN 40, down 3
    Close callPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    57.6%−0.6
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:53CIN 4th & 8 at CIN 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:57CIN 4th & 8 at KU 25, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    7.0%−6.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:21KU 4th & 6 at KU 29, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:21CIN 4th & 3 at KU 30, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    12.2%−1.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    10.6%−2.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:47CIN 4th & 25 at CIN 20, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−1.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:48CIN 4th & 9 at CIN 35, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:47KU 4th & 3 at CIN 6, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−<0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 1 of 2KU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q2 8:55KU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:31KU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:26CIN Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:05KU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:53KU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:23CIN Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    16.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    16.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:39KU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:52KU Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:47KU Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1FG
13 plays · 44 yds · 6:4824% → 29%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
24.4%
Corey Kiner run for 7 yds to the CIN 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
24.4%
Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the CIN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
24.4%
Emory Jones run for 9 yds to the CIN 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+5
24.4%
Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the KU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
24.4%
Emory Jones pass complete to Barry Jackson Jr. for 7 yds to the KU 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+1
24.4%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the KU 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+1
24.4%
Emory Jones run for 1 yd to the KU 40Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+1
24.4%
Emory Jones run for 1 yd to the KU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
24.4%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+2
28.1%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the KU 37Similar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+6
28.0%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 6 yds to the KU 31Similar
Q1 8:12
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+49
28.8%
Carter Brown 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 4:3771% → 68%
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
28.8%
Devin Neal run for a loss of 2 yards to the KU 20Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+6
28.8%
Devin Neal run for 6 yds to the KU 26Similar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+7
28.9%
Jason Bean pass complete to Luke Grimm for 7 yds to the KU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
28.6%
Jason Bean pass complete to Quentin Skinner for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
50
+2
28.1%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 2 yds to the CIN 48Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+7
28.1%
Jason Bean pass complete to Torry Locklin for 7 yds to the CIN 41Similar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 1
OPP 41
-6
28.1%
Jason Bean run for a loss of 6 yards to the CIN 47Similar
Q1 3:29
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
31.7%
Damon Greaves punt for 26 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:1632% → 33%
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
31.5%
Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the CIN 25Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+15
31.6%
Corey Kiner run for 15 yds to the CIN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
32.2%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the CIN 42Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+9
32.2%
Emory Jones run for 19 yds to the KU 39 Cincinnati Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the CIN 40Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
31.8%
Ryan Montgomery run for 3 yds to the CIN 43Similar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
31.7%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:29
4TH & 7
OWN 43
-5
31.4%
Cincinnati Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the CIN 38Similar
Q1 0:13
4TH & 12
OWN 38
0
32.9%
Mason Fletcher punt for 51 yds, downed at the KU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 49 yds · 2:3966% → 65%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+25
34.0%
Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 25 yds to the KU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
33.4%
run for 19 yds to the CIN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
32.4%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 46 Daniel Hishaw Jr. fumbled, recovered by KU Daniel Hishaw Jr. [SG] HISHAW, Daniel rush up the middle for a loss of 1 yard, HISHAW, Daniel fumbled at CIN49 forced by CORLEONE, Dontay, recovered by KAN HISHAW, Daniel at the CIN46, returned 0 yards to the CIN46, End of Play.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+6
32.6%
Devin Neal run for 6 yds to the CIN 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
32.5%
run for no gain to the CIN 40Similar
Q2 12:21
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
34.9%
Damon Greaves punt for 37 yds, downed at the CIN 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5INT
2 plays · 21 yds · 0:4835% → 36%
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+21
35.3%
Ryan Montgomery run for 21 yds to the CIN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
36.2%
Brady Lichtenberg pass intercepted Cobee Bryant return for no gain to the KU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 6TD
5 plays · 77 yds · 2:3864% → 70%
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+40
36.3%
Jason Bean pass complete to Luke Grimm for 40 yds to the CIN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
34.4%
Jason Bean pass complete to Quentin Skinner for 10 yds to the CIN 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
33.7%
run for 11 yds to the CIN 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
33.7%
Jason Bean run for 3 yds to the CIN 13Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+13
29.6%
Devin Neal run for 13 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0232% → 30%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.0%
Brady Lichtenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
31.9%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the CIN 27Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
31.2%
Brady Lichtenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:53
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
30.4%
Mason Fletcher punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Luke Grimm at the KU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 8TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 2:2270% → 77%
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
30.5%
Kansas Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the KU 27Similar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 17
OWN 27
+13
31.3%
Jason Bean pass complete to Quentin Skinner for 13 yds to the KU 40Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+38
29.6%
Devin Neal run for 38 yds to the CIN 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
28.9%
Devin Neal run for 7 yds to the CIN 15Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+15
22.7%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jared Casey for 15 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:0523% → 36%
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
23.3%
Emory Jones run for 9 yds to the CIN 34Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+15
24.1%
Ryan Montgomery run for 15 yds to the CIN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
24.7%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+8
24.4%
Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 8 yds to the KU 43Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+5
25.0%
Ryan Montgomery run for 5 yds to the KU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
25.0%
Corey Kiner run for 6 yds to the KU 32Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+2
26.0%
Emory Jones run for 2 yds to the KU 30Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+5
25.0%
Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the KU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
26.0%
Emory Jones pass complete to Ryan Montgomery for 9 yds to the KU 16Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+2
26.0%
Ryan Montgomery run for 2 yds to the KU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
25.0%
Emory Jones run for 3 yds to the KU 11Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 7
OPP 11
0
25.0%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+11
35.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Ryan Montgomery for 11 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 10TD
3 plays · 56 yds · 0:0570% → 81%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+30
30.0%
Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 30 yds to the CIN 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
18.7%
Jason Bean pass complete to Mason Fairchild for 26 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 18 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
22.2%
Corey Kiner run for 18 yds to the CIN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 12TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0778% → 90%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
22.3%
Jason Bean pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
22.4%
Jason Bean pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+19
22.9%
Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 19 yds to the KU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
21.2%
Devin Neal run for 1 yd to the KU 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+15
21.3%
BEAN, Jason pass deep to the left incomplete intended for SKINNER, Quentin broken up by CARROLL, Kalen at the CIN22. PENALTY CIN Pass Interference on CARROLL, Kalen enforced 15 yards to the CIN40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
21.2%
Devin Neal run for 1 yd to the CIN 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+9
21.2%
Jason Bean pass complete to Luke Grimm for 9 yds to the CIN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
21.1%
Jason Bean pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+30
10.1%
Devin Neal 30 Yd Run (Seth Keller Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13MISSED FG
13 plays · 50 yds · 5:5613% → 12%
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
12.5%
Emory Jones pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 9 yds to the CIN 34Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
13.1%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the CIN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
12.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 4 yds to the CIN 40Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
13.2%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+9
13.0%
Emory Jones run for 9 yds to the CIN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
13.6%
Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the KU 47Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+7
13.8%
Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 7 yds to the KU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
13.9%
Myles Montgomery run for 5 yds to the KU 35Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+8
13.4%
Myles Montgomery run for 8 yds to the KU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
13.4%
Myles Montgomery run for 2 yds to the KU 25Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 8
OPP 25
0
13.4%
Emory Jones pass complete to Chris Scott for no gain to the KU 25Similar
Q3 8:19
3RD & 8
OPP 25
0
12.8%
Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for no gain to the KU 25Similar
Q3 5:57
4TH & 8
OPP 25
+42
11.8%
Carter Brown 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3692% → 92%
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
8.2%
run for 6 yds to the KU 31Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
8.1%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the KU 29Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
8.3%
Jason Bean pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:21
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
7.7%
Damon Greaves punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the CIN 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15TD
13 plays · 67 yds · 5:5810% → 19%
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
10.3%
Emory Jones pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 10 yds to the CIN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
11.1%
Corey Kiner run for 9 yds to the KU 48Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+11
11.7%
Emory Jones pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 11 yds to the KU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
11.5%
Ryan Montgomery run for 2 yds to the KU 35Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+5
11.8%
Emory Jones run for 5 yds to the KU 30Similar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 3
OPP 30
0
11.8%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:21
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+4
11.3%
Emory Jones run for 4 yds to the KU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
12.1%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the KU 24Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+5
9.4%
Emory Jones run for 5 yds to the KU 19Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+12
8.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 12 yds to the KU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
9.4%
Cincinnati Penalty, False Start (Gavin Gerhardt) to the KU 12Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+5
9.2%
Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the KU 7Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
19.3%
Dee Wiggins 7 Yd pass from Ryan Montgomery (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 16TD
3 plays · 79 yds · 1:3787% → 97%
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
12.7%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 4 yds to the KU 25Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+32
12.6%
Jason Bean pass complete to Quentin Skinner for 32 yds to the CIN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
2.8%
Jason Bean 43 Yd Run (Seth Keller Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -15 yds · 0:525% → 4%
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
4.7%
Ryan Montgomery run for no gain to the CIN 35Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-15
4.6%
Cincinnati Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Michael McCalmont) to the CIN 20Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 25
OWN 20
0
4.5%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:39
3RD & 25
OWN 20
0
4.5%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:47
4TH & 25
OWN 20
0
4.3%
Mason Fletcher punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Luke Grimm at the KU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 18TD
2 plays · 59 yds · 0:5597% → 100%
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
2.7%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 1
50
+50
0.5%
Jason Bean 50 Yd Run (Seth Keller Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:040% → 0%
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-15
0.4%
Cincinnati Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Gavin Gerhardt) to the CIN 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
0.4%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 8 yds to the CIN 30Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 2
OWN 30
0
0.4%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+4
0.4%
Emory Jones run for 4 yds to the CIN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
0.4%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
0.4%
Emory Jones run for 1 yd to the CIN 35Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
0.4%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:48
4TH & 9
OWN 35
0
0.3%
Mason Fletcher punt for 26 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 20TD
11 plays · 61 yds · 7:01100% → 100%
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
0.3%
Dylan McDuffie run for 5 yds to the KU 44Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+4
0.3%
Dylan McDuffie run for 4 yds to the KU 48Similar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+5
0.3%
Dylan McDuffie run for 5 yds to the CIN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
0.3%
Sevion Morrison run for 5 yds to the CIN 42Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+16
0.3%
Sevion Morrison run for 16 yds to the CIN 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+16
0.2%
Dylan McDuffie run for 26 yds Kansas Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the CIN 18Similar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 2
OPP 18
+5
0.2%
Dylan McDuffie run for 5 yds to the CIN 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
0.2%
Dylan McDuffie run for 3 yds to the CIN 10Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+1
0.2%
Dylan McDuffie run for 1 yd to the CIN 9Similar
Q4 3:53
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+3
0.2%
Ben Easters run for 3 yds to the CIN 6Similar
Q4 0:47
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+6
0.1%
Dylan McDuffie 6 Yd Run (Owen Piepergerdes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21END OF 4TH QUARTER
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:470% → 0%
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
0.1%
Ryan Montgomery run for 1 yd to the CIN 26Similar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
0.1%
Emory Jones pass complete to Ryan Montgomery for 2 yds to the CIN 28Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
0.1%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:05
Jason Bean pass complete to Mason Fairchild for 26 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)
-11.3
TD · Q3 11:53
Devin Neal 30 Yd Run (Seth Keller Kick)
-11
TD · Q2 0:26
Emory Jones pass complete to Ryan Montgomery for 11 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)
+10.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com