2023 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2023 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadWVU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreWVU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:14 · Isaiah Hankins 32 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:55: Garrett Greene pass complete to Traylon Ray for 30 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK) — WVU win probability +3.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:57: Ketron Jackson Jr. 38 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Isaiah Hankins Kick) — BAY win probability +1.7 pts (now 46%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:45: Dominic Richardson 2 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick) — BAY win probability +5.1 pts (now 50%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
- FG · Q4 12:58: Isaiah Hankins 39 Yd Field Goal — WVU win probability +2.5 pts (now 54%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- TD · Q4 0:23: Jahiem White 29 Yd pass from Garrett Greene (Michael Hayes Kick) — WVU win probability +8.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 6 of 8WVU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 11:32WVU 4th & 7 at WVU 39, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 70.0% before the snapGo for it70.0%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.1%average punt
- Q1 7:19BAY 4th & 7 at BAY 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snapGo for it31.4%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.6%average punt
- Q1 3:34BAY 4th & 3 at BAY 36, down 7Close callPunted · 29.5% before the snapGo for it29.6%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.6%−0.1average punt
- Q2 14:10WVU 4th & 7 at BAY 20, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.9% before the snapGo for it70.5%−0.435% to convertField goalTheir call70.9%75% to makePunt67.9%−3.0average punt
- Q2 5:44WVU 4th & 5 at BAY 18, up 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.8% before the snapGo for it64.2%−0.340% to convertField goalTheir call64.5%79% to makePunt59.6%−4.9average punt
- Q2 1:46BAY 4th & 12 at WVU 26, down 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.9% before the snapGo for it36.2%−1.523% to convertField goalTheir call37.7%64% to makePunt32.7%−5.0average punt
- Q3 8:35WVU 4th & 9 at WVU 26, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.3% before the snapGo for it56.8%−2.430% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.2%average punt
- Q3 8:35BAY 4th & 1 at WVU 4, down 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call43.5%65% to convertField goal39.7%−3.893% to makePunt29.3%−14.3average punt
- Q3 3:47WVU 4th & 11 at WVU 45, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.7% before the snapGo for it55.7%−3.026% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.8%average punt
- Q3 0:00BAY 4th & 2 at WVU 47, down 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call46.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt43.4%−2.9average punt
- Q4 12:58BAY 4th & 3 at WVU 22, down 1Close callKicked a field goal · 45.7% before the snapGo for it45.7%52% to convertField goalTheir call45.2%−0.572% to makePunt30.1%−15.5average punt
- Q4 10:08WVU 4th & 6 at WVU 41, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.3% before the snapGo for it55.6%−2.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.8%average punt
- Q4 6:28BAY 4th & 14 at BAY 38, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snapGo for it36.0%−3.618% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.6%average punt
- Q4 4:20WVU 4th & 1 at WVU 45, up 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call65.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt58.7%−7.3average punt
- Q4 1:14BAY 4th & 8 at WVU 14, down 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.5% before the snapGo for it35.4%−28.331% to convertField goalTheir call63.7%84% to makePunt22.1%−41.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WVU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 5:55WVU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.8%97% to makeGo for two69.7%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWVUDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 3:2870% → 68%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+4
30.4%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Rodney Gallagher for 4 yds to the WVU 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+8
30.4%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Traylon Ray for 8 yds to the WVU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-9
30.4%
run for a loss of 9 yards to the WVU 29 fumbled, recovered by WVU Garrett Greene [NHSG] WVU rush up the middle for a loss of 9 yards, fumbled at WVU32 , recovered by WVU GREENE, Garrett at the WVU29, returned 0 yards to the WVU29 (JACKSON, Bryson).Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 29
+10
30.4%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Kole Taylor for 10 yds to the WVU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 4:1332% → 34%
Q1 7:19
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
33.5%
Palmer Williams punt for 49 yds , Preston Fox returns for no gain to the WVU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 3TD3 plays · 90 yds · 1:2466% → 70%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
30.3%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Traylon Ray for 30 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 2:2131% → 31%
WVUDrive 5FG11 plays · 64 yds · 4:2469% → 70%
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
30.2%
GREENE, Garrett pass deep to the right incomplete intended for RAY, Traylon thrown to the BAY0. PENALTY BAY Holding on JENKINS, Caden enforced 10 yards from the BAY33 to the BAY23 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
29.7%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Rodney Gallagher for 3 yds to the BAY 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 6TD7 plays · 82 yds · 3:2764% → 66%
WVUDrive 7FG8 plays · 60 yds · 4:3263% → 63%
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+19
35.2%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Kole Taylor for 19 yds to the BAY 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8MISSED FG12 plays · 46 yds · 3:5839% → 41%
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+37
39.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Jake Roberts for 37 yds to the WVU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+8
41.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 8 yds to the WVU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-6
42.6%
Sawyer Robertson sacked by Jared Bartlett for a loss of 6 yards to the WVU 30Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 16
OPP 30
-10
43.6%
RICHARDSON, Dominic rush to the left for no gain to the WVU30 (LOCKHART, Mike). PENALTY BAY Holding on EBOSELE, Alvin enforced 10 yards from the WVU30 to the WVU40 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 26
OPP 40
+6
42.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 6 yds to the WVU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 9TD8 plays · 74 yds · 1:3161% → 66%
Q2 1:46
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+15
39.7%
GREENE, Garrett pass deep to the right incomplete intended for RAY, Traylon thrown to the BAY40. PENALTY BAY Pass Interference on REED, Chateau enforced 15 yards to the WVU43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+26
36.9%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Kole Taylor for 26 yds to the BAY 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+19
34.5%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Preston Fox for 19 yds to the BAY 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10END OF HALF1 play · 2 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11TD7 plays · 77 yds · 4:0341% → 46%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+18
40.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Richard Reese for 3 yds to the BAY 26 for a 1ST down West Virginia Penalty, Personal Foul (Ben Cutter) to the BAY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
43.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 1 yd to the BAY 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+1
42.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kelsey Johnson for 1 yd to the BAY 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+6
44.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Cameron Bonner for 6 yds to the WVU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
46.0%
Ketron Jackson Jr. 38 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Isaiah Hankins Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 2:2260% → 56%
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
40.3%
West Virginia Penalty, Offensive Holding (Wyatt Milum) to the WVU 19Similar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+9
42.0%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Kole Taylor for 9 yds to the WVU 26Similar
Q3 8:35
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
43.7%
Oliver Straw punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Josh Cameron at the BAY 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13TD6 plays · 51 yds · 2:5047% → 50%
WVUDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 1:5858% → 56%
Q3 5:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-10
41.8%
GREENE, Garrett pass to the right incomplete thrown to the WVU34; QB hurried by BOBBY, Devyn. PENALTY WVU Holding on NESTER, Doug enforced 10 yards from the WVU27 to the WVU17 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+29
42.7%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Preston Fox for 29 yds to the WVU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:47
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
44.2%
Oliver Straw punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Josh Cameron at the BAY 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15FG12 plays · 63 yds · 5:4944% → 46%
WVUDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 24 yds · 2:5058% → 57%
Q4 10:08
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
43.2%
Oliver Straw punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Josh Cameron at the BAY 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 3:4044% → 42%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+13
44.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 13 yds to the BAY 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
48.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 1 yd to the BAY 43Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 9
OWN 43
-5
44.7%
Sawyer Robertson sacked by Edward Vesterinen for a loss of 5 yards to the BAY 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 18DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0863% → 63%
Q4 6:28
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+10
40.4%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 10 yds to the WVU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19MISSED FG11 plays · 31 yds · 3:0653% → 49%
Q4 4:20
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+9
52.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Drake Dabney for 9 yds to the WVU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 20TD6 plays · 80 yds · 0:5171% → 88%
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
28.8%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 11 yds to the WVU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+23
28.1%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 23 yds to the BAY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+29
12.4%
Jahiem White 29 Yd pass from Garrett Greene (Michael Hayes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21END OF GAME5 plays · 20 yds · 0:1132% → 26%
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-26.4
TD · Q4 0:23
Jahiem White 29 Yd pass from Garrett Greene (Michael Hayes Kick)
-8.6
TD · Q3 5:45
Dominic Richardson 2 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)
+5.1