2023 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2023 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadTTU aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreTTU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:28 · Austin McNamara punt for 33 yds, downed at the TTU 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:29: Behren Morton run for 2 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK) — TTU win probability +3.3 pts (now 20%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:50: Jaydon Blue run for 69 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK) — TEX win probability +3.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
- FG · Q2 10:07: Bert Auburn 37 yd FG GOOD — TEX win probability +4.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Bert Auburn 44 yd FG GOOD — TEX win probability +3.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
- TD · Q3 14:46: Reese Burkhardt kickoff for 60 yds , Keilan Robinson return for 95 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK) — TEX win probability +1.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 6 of 8TTU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 14:06TTU 4th & 9 at TTU 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snapGo for it15.6%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.7%average punt
- Q1 5:54TEX 4th & 11 at TTU 37, up 7Close callPunted · 83.8% before the snapGo for it83.8%−<0.127% to convertField goal83.8%40% to makePuntTheir call83.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 3:36TTU 4th & 16 at TTU 16, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snapGo for it15.6%−0.514% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.1%average punt
- Q1 2:15TEX 4th & 6 at TTU 16, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.5% before the snapGo for it83.2%−0.138% to convertField goalTheir call83.3%81% to makePunt81.8%−1.6average punt
- Q2 11:03TTU 4th & 25 at TTU 32, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snapGo for it14.4%−1.46% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.9%average punt
- Q2 10:07TEX 4th & 9 at TTU 19, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.6% before the snapGo for it83.0%−0.630% to convertField goalTheir call83.6%77% to makePunt80.0%−3.6average punt
- Q2 8:25TTU 4th & 19 at TTU 20, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.9% before the snapGo for it11.9%−1.010% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.9%average punt
- Q2 2:44TEX 4th & 8 at TTU 8, up 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.4% before the snapGo for it87.4%−0.426% to convertField goalTheir call87.8%90% to makePunt84.3%−3.6average punt
- Q2 0:31TTU 4th & 2 at TTU 45, down 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt10.9%−0.1average punt
- Q3 13:52TTU 4th & 8 at TTU 19, down 26Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.1%average punt
- Q3 12:16TEX 4th & 9 at TEX 44, up 26Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snapGo for it98.1%−0.432% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.5%average punt
- Q3 11:28TTU 4th & 10 at TTU 9, down 26Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.427% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.7%average punt
- Q3 9:15TEX 4th & 16 at TTU 36, up 26Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snapGo for it98.3%−0.416% to convertField goalTheir call98.7%42% to makePunt98.6%−0.1average punt
- Q3 2:03TTU 4th & 4 at TTU 30, down 43Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 12:35TEX 4th & 6 at TTU 6, up 43Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%−<0.131% to convertField goal99.8%91% to makePunt99.4%−0.5average punt
- Q4 8:37TTU 4th & 4 at TTU 43, down 43Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 2:50TEX 4th & 5 at TEX 49, up 43Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.9%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 6 of 6TTU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 10:29TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.0%97% to makeGo for two84.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:29TTU Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call19.3%97% to makeGo for two19.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:50TEX Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.2%97% to makeGo for two84.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:46TEX Touchdown, up 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.1%97% to makeGo for two97.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:44TEX Touchdown, up 35 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:26TEX Touchdown, up 42 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:38TEX Touchdown, up 49 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTTUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4215% → 15%
TEXDrive 2TD8 plays · 56 yds · 3:3385% → 85%
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
85.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 11 yds to the TTU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+11
85.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 11 yds to the TTU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+18
85.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 18 yds to the TTU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 3INT7 plays · 34 yds · 1:5615% → 16%
Q1 9:34
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+18
84.9%
Behren Morton pass complete to Tahj Brooks for 3 yds to the TTU 19 for a 1ST down Texas Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the TTU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+4
84.6%
Behren Morton pass complete to Mason Tharp for 4 yds to the TTU 49Similar
Q1 8:21
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
84.5%
Behren Morton pass intercepted Malik Muhammad return for no gain to the TEX 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 33 yds · 2:2185% → 85%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
84.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 15 yds to the TEX 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
85.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 7 yds to the TTU 48Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+12
85.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 12 yds to the TTU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 2:1215% → 15%
Q1 4:10
3RD & 7
OWN 25
-9
84.6%
Behren Morton sacked by Jett Bush for a loss of 9 yards to the TTU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6FG5 plays · 27 yds · 1:1385% → 85%
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+23
85.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 23 yds to the TTU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 7TD6 plays · 44 yds · 1:2916% → 20%
Q1 0:33
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+14
83.6%
Texas Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (14 Yards) to the TEX 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8TD3 plays · 74 yds · 0:2682% → 85%
TTUDrive 9PUNT10 plays · 9 yds · 3:3616% → 15%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
84.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to Brady Boyd for no gain to the TTU 23Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+8
84.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 8 yds to the TTU 31Similar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+2
84.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to Drae McCray for 2 yds to the TTU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
83.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to Drae McCray for 1 yd to the TTU 48Similar
Q2 11:47
3RD & 14
OWN 43
-11
84.3%
Behren Morton sacked by Anthony Hill Jr. for a loss of 11 yards to the TTU 32Similar
Q2 11:03
4TH & 25
OWN 32
0
85.0%
- Team punt blocked by Michael Taaffe blocked by Michael Taaffe Team, - punt 0 yards to the TEXASTECH32, recovered by TEXAS Lefau, Liona at TEXASTECH20 (blocked by Taaffe, Michael).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10FG6 plays · 1 yds · 0:5086% → 89%
Q2 10:44
2ND & 15
OPP 25
-2
85.5%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Tony Bradford Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the TTU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 11PUNT6 plays · -9 yds · 1:2812% → 12%
Q2 8:25
4TH & 19
OWN 20
0
88.4%
Austin McNamara punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Xavier Worthy at the TEX 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12INT6 plays · 41 yds · 1:5190% → 90%
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
89.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 10 yds to the TTU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+12
89.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 12 yds to the TTU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
89.8%
Quinn Ewers pass intercepted, touchback. Bralyn Lux return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 13INT3 plays · 14 yds · 1:1412% → 12%
TEXDrive 14FG8 plays · 33 yds · 2:2690% → 92%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+20
90.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 20 yds to the TTU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
90.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 4 yds to the TTU 6Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
90.3%
Quinn Ewers run for a loss of 2 yards to the TTU 8 Quinn Ewers fumbled, recovered by TEX Quinn Ewers at the TEXASTECH8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 15DOWNS9 plays · 20 yds · 2:0710% → 11%
Q2 0:31
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
89.5%
Behren Morton pass complete to Tahj Brooks for no gain to the TTU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16END OF HALF7 plays · 19 yds · 0:2692% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:422% → 2%
Q3 13:52
4TH & 8
OWN 19
0
98.0%
Austin McNamara punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Xavier Worthy at the TEX 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3198% → 98%
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
98.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 4 yds to the TEX 47Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 4
OWN 49
-5
98.2%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Trevon McAlpine for a loss of 5 yards to the TEX 44Similar
Q3 12:16
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
98.3%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Xavier White at the TTU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:442% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21FG6 plays · 6 yds · 2:0599% → 99%
TTUDrive 22PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 1:511% → 1%
Q3 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to Xavier White for 7 yds to the TTU 32Similar
Q3 7:45
4TH & 3
OWN 32
-10
99.4%
Texas Tech Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TTU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
99.5%
Austin McNamara punt for 55 yds , Xavier Worthy returns for 15 yds to the TEX 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23TD6 plays · 62 yds · 2:31100% → 100%
TTUDrive 24INT TD6 plays · 24 yds · 1:050% → 0%
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
99.7%
Behren Morton pass complete to Brady Boyd for 4 yds to the TTU 40Similar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+9
99.7%
Behren Morton pass complete to Xavier White for 9 yds to the TTU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-43
99.8%
Behren Morton pass intercepted Jett Bush return for 43 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:120% → 0%
TEXDrive 26DOWNS11 plays · 49 yds · 4:22100% → 100%
Q4 13:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
99.9%
Arch Manning run for a loss of 10 yards to the TTU 18 Arch Manning fumbled, recovered by TEX Arch Manning at TEXASTECH18.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 27PUNT9 plays · 37 yds · 3:530% → 0%
Q4 11:52
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+8
99.9%
Behren Morton pass complete to Jordan Brown for 8 yds to the TTU 15Similar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+9
99.9%
Behren Morton pass complete to Xavier White for 9 yds to the TTU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
99.9%
Behren Morton pass complete to Tahj Brooks for a loss of 2 yards to the TTU 22Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 12
OWN 22
+15
99.9%
Behren Morton pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 15 yds to the TTU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Austin McNamara punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Johntay Cook II at the TEX 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 28TD16 plays · 91 yds · 7:52100% → 100%
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 10:07
Bert Auburn 37 yd FG GOOD
+4.1
FG · Q2 0:00
Bert Auburn 44 yd FG GOOD
+3.8
TD · Q1 0:29
Behren Morton run for 2 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)
-3.3