Try the model
TCU

TCU 45 at Oklahoma 69

OU
2023 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2023 · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreTCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+0.7OU 96.3%Zach Schmit 23 yd FG GOODAWAY 23 - HOME 45 · Q3 9:51
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:51 · Zach Schmit 23 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 130Pregame prior+14.5Home team on offense+23.8Score differential+16.2Garbage-time factor+7.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.6Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:30: Josh Hoover pass complete to JoJo Earle for 6 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +2.8 pts (now 21%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:13: G. Sawchuk run for 12 yds for a TD (Z. Schmit KICK) (Z. Schmit KICK) — OU win probability +4.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:15: Gavin Sawchuk 7 Yd Run (Zach Schmit Kick) — OU win probability +6.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 3:18: T. Walker run for 9 yds for a TD (Z. Schmit KICK) — OU win probability +3.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:14: Jared Wiley 3 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Jared Wiley Pass to Josh Hoover for Two-Point Conversion) — TCU win probability +8.9 pts (now 13%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5TCU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 12:11TCU 4th & 11 at TCU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:04TCU 4th & 5 at TCU 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:21OU 4th & 4 at OU 28, up 1
    Close callPunted · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:28TCU 4th & 10 at OU 49, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:04TCU 4th & 13 at TCU 22, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−1.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:04OU 4th & 3 at TCU 34, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    78.0%−0.9
    47% to make
    Punt
    77.6%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:24TCU 4th & 8 at TCU 30, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.8%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:29TCU 4th & 5 at TCU 30, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:51OU 4th & 3 at TCU 5, up 22
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.5%−0.3
    92% to make
    Punt
    93.0%−2.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:13TCU 4th & 10 at OU 33, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    3.7%
    49% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:14OU 4th & 1 at OU 34, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    87.5%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:14OU 4th & 22 at TCU 22, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%−1.7
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    91.6%−3.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:32TCU 4th & 5 at TCU 30, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 11:33OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:53TCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    23.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:42OU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 4:30TCU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 14:33OU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 10:13OU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 6:15OU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 3:18OU Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 5:14TCU Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    7.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    7.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:30OU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 6:02OU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 2:22TCU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TCUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:4918% → 18%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.3%
pass incomplete to Jaylon RobinsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.3%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 5 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
82.3%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 10 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
82.3%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Blake Nowell for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+1
82.3%
Emani Bailey run for 1 yd to the TCU 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 39
0
82.3%
pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q1 12:11
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
81.6%
Jordy Sandy punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 2TD
3 plays · 73 yds · 0:3882% → 82%
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+50
81.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Nic Anderson for 50 yds to the TCU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
81.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Austin Stogner for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Josh Newton) to the TCU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
82.4%
Dillon Gabriel run for 8 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:2918% → 18%
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.1%
Bailey,Emani rush middle (Lewis,Kip;Dolby,Kendel).Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
82.1%
pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
82.2%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to JP Richardson for a 1ST down Oklahoma Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Kendel Dolby) to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
82.0%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Blake Nowell, broken up by Woodi WashingtonSimilar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
82.0%
Emani Bailey run for 5 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
82.0%
pass incomplete to JP RichardsonSimilar
Q1 10:04
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
82.0%
Jordy Sandy punt for 36 yds , Gavin Freeman returns for no gain to the OU 19 Gavin Freeman fumbled, recovered by TCU Namdi Obiazor Sandy,Jordy punt 36 yards to the OKL19, Freeman,Gavin return 0 yards to the OKL19, fumble by Freeman,Gavin recovered by TCU Obiazor,Namdi, Obiazor,Namdi return 0 yards to the OKL19. , return for no gain to the OU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4TD
4 plays · 19 yds · 1:1119% → 20%
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
81.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Emani Bailey for 6 yds to the OU 13Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+10
81.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jared Wiley for 10 yds to the OU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
81.5%
Bailey,Emani rush middle (Stutsman,Danny).Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
80.3%
Josh Hoover run for 3 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 5TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1181% → 82%
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
80.6%
Dillon Gabriel run for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 24Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
80.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Nic Anderson, broken up by Millard BradfordSimilar
Q1 8:53
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+17
80.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jayden Gibson for 17 yds to the OU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
82.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jayden Gibson for 59 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1218% → 21%
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
82.3%
Emani Bailey run for 2 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
82.2%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jared Wiley for 5 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
82.3%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Major Everhart for 5 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
82.1%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jared Wiley, broken up by R Mason ThomasSimilar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+48
82.2%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JoJo Earle for 48 yds to the OU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
81.5%
Emani Bailey run for 11 yds to the OU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
81.5%
Emani Bailey run for a loss of 2 yards to the OU 6Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
78.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JoJo Earle for 6 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:0380% → 79%
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
79.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jalil Farooq, broken up by Tymon MitchellSimilar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+5
79.8%
Sawchuk,Gavin rush (Hodge,Jamoi), PENALTY TCU off-side (Ibukun-Okeyode,Micheal) 5 yards to the OKL17. TCU Penalty, off-side (Micheal Ibukun-Okeyode) to the OU 27Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+1
79.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 1 yd to the OU 28Similar
Q1 4:24
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
79.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jalil Farooq, broken up by Josh NewtonSimilar
Q1 3:21
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
79.1%
Luke Elzinga punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 1:5321% → 21%
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
79.4%
pass incomplete to JP RichardsonSimilar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+12
79.5%
Emani Bailey run for 12 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
79.2%
Emani Bailey run for 3 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
78.9%
pass incomplete to Emani BaileySimilar
Q1 3:21
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+12
79.2%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 12 yds to the OU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
78.6%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jared Wiley, broken up by Peyton BowenSimilar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
78.7%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Blake Nowell, broken up by Woodi WashingtonSimilar
Q1 3:21
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
79.1%
pass incomplete to Trey SandersSimilar
Q1 1:28
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
79.0%
Jordy Sandy punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 1:5579% → 82%
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
78.9%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 3 yds to the OU 23Similar
Q1 1:28
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
78.9%
pass incomplete to Drake StoopsSimilar
Q1 1:28
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+12
78.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Nic Anderson for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jaionte McMillan) to the OU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
79.0%
Sawchuk,Gavin rush right (Johnson,Jamel;Fox,Caleb).Similar
Q1 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
79.0%
pass incomplete to Jayden GibsonSimilar
Q1 0:26
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+20
78.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Nic Anderson for 20 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-8
79.6%
Gavin Freeman run for a loss of 8 yards to the OU 47Similar
Q2 14:33
2ND & 18
OWN 47
+53
82.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 53 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2918% → 17%
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
82.2%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Emani Bailey for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 21Similar
Q2 14:33
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
82.3%
pass incomplete to Jared WileySimilar
Q2 14:33
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+1
82.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to DJ Rogers for 1 yd to the TCU 22Similar
Q2 13:04
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
82.9%
Jordy Sandy punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 11TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 2:5182% → 87%
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
81.7%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 1 yd to the OU 29Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
81.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Drake Stoops, broken up by Jamoi HodgeSimilar
Q2 13:04
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+30
81.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 15 yds to the TCU 44 TCU Penalty, roughing passer (Tico Brown) to the TCU 41Similar
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
82.5%
pass incomplete to Gavin SawchukSimilar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+1
82.5%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 1 yd to the TCU 40Similar
Q2 13:04
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+6
82.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 6 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q2 13:04
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+16
81.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Nic Anderson for 16 yds to the TCU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
82.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Nic Anderson, broken up by Josh NewtonSimilar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+6
82.6%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 6 yds to the TCU 12Similar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+12
86.9%
G. Sawchuk run for 12 yds for a TD (Z. Schmit KICK) (Z. Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4915% → 14%
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
85.2%
Emani Bailey run for 3 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+5
85.2%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jared Wiley for 5 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q2 8:24
4TH & 8
OWN 30
+3
86.1%
Trent Battle run for 3 yds to the TCU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 13TD
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:0988% → 94%
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
87.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 7 yds to the TCU 26Similar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+2
87.8%
Tawee Walker run for 2 yds to the TCU 24Similar
Q2 8:24
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+6
87.5%
Tawee Walker run for 6 yds to the TCU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
87.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 1 yd to the TCU 17Similar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 9
OPP 17
-1
87.8%
Dillon Gabriel run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 18Similar
Q2 8:24
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+11
87.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Nic Anderson for 11 yds to the TCU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
93.8%
Gavin Sawchuk 7 Yd Run (Zach Schmit Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:467% → 7%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
93.0%
Emani Bailey run for 5 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
92.7%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to JoJo Earle, broken up by Jasiah WagonerSimilar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
92.8%
pass incomplete to Jack BechSimilar
Q2 5:29
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+2
93.3%
Jordy Sandy punt for 50 yds , Gavin Freeman returns for 2 yds to the OU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 15TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 2:1194% → 98%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
94.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gavin Sawchuk for 8 yds to the OU 30Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+41
94.1%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 41 yds to the TCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
94.3%
pass incomplete to Gavin SawchukSimilar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+11
94.3%
Tawee Walker run for 11 yds to the TCU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
94.3%
Oklahoma Penalty, false start (Cayden Green) to the TCU 23Similar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 15
OPP 23
+14
94.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 14 yds to the TCU 9Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+9
97.5%
T. Walker run for 9 yds for a TD (Z. Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16FG
16 plays · 80 yds · 3:092% → 3%
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
97.6%
Savion Williams run for 2 yds to the TCU 18Similar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+11
97.6%
Savion Williams run for 11 yds to the TCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
97.6%
pass incomplete to Jack BechSimilar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+10
97.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Emani Bailey for 10 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
97.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 18 yds to the OU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
97.4%
Josh Hoover run for 3 yds to the OU 40Similar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+2
97.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jared Wiley for 2 yds to the OU 38Similar
Q2 3:17
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+5
97.3%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jared Wiley for 5 yds to the OU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
97.2%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 13 yds to the OU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
97.2%
Emani Bailey run for 5 yds to the OU 15Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 5
OPP 15
0
97.6%
pass incomplete to Jaylon RobinsonSimilar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+6
97.8%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jaylon Robinson for a 1ST down Oklahoma Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Gentry Williams) to the OU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
98.4%
Emani Bailey run for 5 yds to the OU 4Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
98.1%
pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
96.9%
pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 17INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 18FG
14 plays · 70 yds · 5:0995% → 96%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.4%
pass incomplete to Jalil FarooqSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
95.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 10 yds to the OU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
95.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gavin Sawchuk for 8 yds to the OU 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+5
95.6%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 5 yds to the OU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
95.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 1 yd to the OU 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+1
95.6%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
50
+25
95.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 25 yds to the TCU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
95.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Austin Stogner for 8 yds to the TCU 17Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+5
95.7%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 5 yds to the TCU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
95.7%
pass incomplete to Nic AndersonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+6
95.7%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 6 yds to the TCU 6Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+1
95.6%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 1 yd to the TCU 5Similar
Q3 9:51
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+23
96.3%
Zach Schmit 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 1:544% → 4%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
96.2%
Emani Bailey run for 7 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+1
96.0%
Emani Bailey run for 1 yd to the TCU 30Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+27
96.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 27 yds to the OU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
96.0%
Emani Bailey run for 11 yds to the OU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
95.6%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to JP Richardson, broken up by Kendel DolbySimilar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+32
96.0%
Emani Bailey run for 32 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 2:294% → 14%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
96.5%
Emani Bailey run for 1 yd to the TCU 27Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+25
96.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JoJo Earle for 25 yds to the OU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
96.0%
pass incomplete to JP RichardsonSimilar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
96.1%
pass incomplete to JoJo EarleSimilar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
96.4%
pass incomplete to JP RichardsonSimilar
Q3 7:13
4TH & 10
OPP 33
+30
96.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 30 yds to the OU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
96.0%
pass incomplete to Jared WileySimilar
Q3 5:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
87.1%
Jared Wiley 3 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Jared Wiley Pass to Josh Hoover for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q3 5:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
85.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jared WileySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2889% → 91%
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
89.2%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 7 yds to the OU 32Similar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
89.4%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 1 yd to the OU 33Similar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
88.9%
Tawee Walker run for 1 yd to the OU 34Similar
Q3 5:14
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+40
88.4%
Dillon Gabriel run for 40 yds to the TCU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+17
89.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 17 yds to the TCU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
91.1%
D. Gabriel pass to D. Stoops for 9 yds for a TD (Z. Schmit KICK)Similar
Q3 2:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
91.1%
Oklahoma Penalty, false start (Savion Byrd) to the TCU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 1:5711% → 11%
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
89.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 3 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+3
88.6%
Emani Bailey run for 3 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q3 2:36
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+9
88.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 9 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
88.0%
pass incomplete to JP RichardsonSimilar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+49
88.3%
Emani Bailey run for 49 yds to the OU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
89.2%
J. Hoover pass to E. Bailey for 12 yds for a TD (G. Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 23FG
13 plays · 53 yds · 5:2594% → 97%
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
94.2%
Jalil Farooq run for 6 yds to the OU 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
94.6%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 7 yds to the OU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
94.7%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the OU 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+10
94.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+4
94.9%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 4 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+18
94.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Austin Stogner for 18 yds to the TCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
94.9%
Dillon Gabriel run for 3 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+16
94.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 16 yds to the TCU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
94.9%
Dillon Gabriel sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the TCU 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
0
94.8%
pass incomplete to Gavin SawchukSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
-8
94.7%
Dillon Gabriel sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the TCU 22Similar
Q4 10:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 22
+40
96.6%
Zach Schmit 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:423% → 3%
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 5 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-4
96.5%
Emani Bailey run for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 26Similar
Q4 10:14
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+4
96.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jared Wiley for 4 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q4 8:32
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
96.9%
pass incomplete to JP RichardsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 25TD
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:0297% → 99%
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
97.3%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 3 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+6
97.3%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 6 yds to the TCU 21Similar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+2
97.2%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the TCU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
97.3%
pass incomplete to Gavin SawchukSimilar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+10
97.3%
for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, personal foul (Shad Banks Jr.) to the TCU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.3%
Gavin Sawchuk 9 Yd Run (Zach Schmit Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 26TD
2 plays · 97 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-45
99.9%
Billy Bowman Jr. 45 Yd Interception Return (Zach Schmit Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 27TD
8 plays · 56 yds · 3:400% → 1%
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
99.9%
Bailey,Emani rush (Johnson,Jacobe), PENALTY TCU holding (Bech,Jack) 10 yards to the OKL46. TCU Penalty, Offensive holding (Jack Bech) to the TCU 34Similar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 20
OWN 34
+5
99.9%
Cam Cook run for 5 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 15
OWN 39
+10
99.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Major Everhart for 10 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+7
99.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Major Everhart for 7 yds to the OU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
99.9%
Savion Williams run for 5 yds to the OU 39Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+34
99.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jack Bech for 34 yds to the OU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.3%
Jared Wiley 5 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Griffin Kell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 28Uncategorized
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
99.5%
Jovantae Barnes run for 6 yds to the OU 34Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+4
99.5%
Jovantae Barnes run for 4 yds to the OU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.5%
Barnes,Jovantae rush middle (Obiazor,Namdi;Williams,Damonic).Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
99.5%
Emeka Megwa run for 6 yds to the OU 44Similar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 4
OWN 44
-2
99.5%
Jackson Arnold run for a loss of 2 yards to the OU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:14
Jared Wiley 3 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Jared Wiley Pass to Josh Hoover for Two-Point Conversion)
-8.9
TD · Q2 6:15
Gavin Sawchuk 7 Yd Run (Zach Schmit Kick)
+6.3
TD · Q2 10:13
G. Sawchuk run for 12 yds for a TD (Z. Schmit KICK) (Z. Schmit KICK)
+4.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com