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UCF

UCF 23 at Texas Tech 24

TTU
2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · Jones AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:16 · Mitch McCarthy punt for 41 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 21Home team on offense−1.8Pregame prior+7.7Score differential−0.6Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Blowout margin+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:13: Behren Morton pass complete to Mason Tharp for 19 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK) — TTU win probability +12.4 pts (now 64%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:11: Tahj Brooks run for 13 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK) — TTU win probability +22.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 10:21: Colton Boomer 24 yd FG GOOD — UCF win probability +7.0 pts (now 35%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 6:13: Gino Garcia 51 yd FG GOOD — TTU win probability +14.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:30: John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 71 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer PAT BLOCKED) — UCF win probability +26.1 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UCF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 9:55TTU 4th & 2 at UCF 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.8%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    56.6%−0.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    55.5%−1.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:16UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:27TTU 4th & 4 at UCF 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    55.1%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    54.6%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:53UCF 4th & 3 at TTU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    47.8%−0.4
    60% to make
    Punt
    45.3%−3.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:18UCF 4th & 8 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:12TTU 4th & 5 at TTU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:41UCF 4th & 9 at UCF 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−2.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:11UCF 4th & 5 at TTU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−1.0
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    32.8%−13.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:33TTU 4th & 6 at TTU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:21UCF 4th & 4 at TTU 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−1.4
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    7.0%−14.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:13TTU 4th & 10 at UCF 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.9%
    49% to make
    Punt
    73.2%−2.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UCF made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 11:49UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:11UCF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:10TTU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:13TTU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:11TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:30UCF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    41.5%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1141% → 43%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
58.9%
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
58.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 5 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+13
58.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 13 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
58.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Alec Holler for 9 yds to the TTU 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+3
58.9%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the TTU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+39
58.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 39 yds to the TTU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
58.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
57.4%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 2DOWNS
6 plays · 62 yds · 1:5458% → 58%
Q1 11:49
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+49
58.0%
Behren Morton pass complete to Xavier White for 49 yds to the UCF 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
58.3%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:49
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+8
58.3%
Behren Morton pass complete to Drae McCray for 8 yds to the UCF 8Similar
Q1 11:49
3RD & 2
OPP 8
0
58.2%
Tahj Brooks run for no gain to the UCF 8Similar
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
57.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 5 yds to the TTU 35Similar
Q1 9:55
4TH & 2
OPP 8
0
57.5%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:3943% → 44%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-2
57.2%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 6Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 12
OWN 6
+15
57.2%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 15 yds to the UCF 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+18
57.1%
RJ Harvey run for 18 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
56.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
56.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
56.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:16
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
55.8%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 4DOWNS
5 plays · 52 yds · 1:4956% → 56%
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+46
56.0%
Tahj Brooks run for 46 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
57.0%
Tahj Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 38Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 12
OPP 38
+8
56.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 8 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q1 7:16
3RD & 4
OPP 30
0
56.9%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:27
4TH & 4
OPP 30
0
55.8%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 5:1645% → 54%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
54.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 16 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
54.3%
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd to the UCF 47Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+6
54.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Randy Pittman for 6 yds to the TTU 47Similar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 3
OPP 47
-10
54.3%
UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+18
54.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 18 yds to the TTU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
54.0%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 1 yd to the TTU 34Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+7
54.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Alec Holler for 7 yds to the TTU 27Similar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 2
OPP 27
-1
54.2%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 1 yard to the TTU 28Similar
Q1 0:53
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+24
52.3%
Colton Boomer run for 24 yds to the TTU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
51.6%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the TTU 1Similar
Q1 0:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
45.6%
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 46 yds · 1:5049% → 55%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
48.7%
Tahj Brooks run for 9 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 37
0
48.8%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+14
48.7%
Tahj Brooks run for 14 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
49.2%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+13
49.1%
Behren Morton pass complete to Mason Tharp for 13 yds to the UCF 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
49.2%
MORTON, Behren pass short to the right complete for 4 yards to CUPP, Baylor caught at the UCF6 and advanced to the UCF6, out of bounds. PENALTY TTU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on SPENCER, Cole enforced 5 yards from the UCF10 to the UCF15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
55.3%
Behren Morton pass complete to Drae McCray for 15 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7PUNT
12 plays · 25 yds · 5:5248% → 52%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
52.0%
Johnny Richardson run for 9 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
51.4%
RJ Harvey run for no gain to the UCF 34Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
51.5%
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
51.6%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 7 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
50.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+7
51.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 7 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
50.7%
UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (Alec Holler) to the UCF 42Similar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 17
OWN 42
+6
51.4%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 6 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-5
50.8%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Braeden Marshall) to the UCF 43Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 15
OWN 43
0
51.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 15
OWN 43
+7
52.0%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:18
4TH & 8
50
0
47.7%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 8TD
11 plays · 93 yds · 4:0548% → 64%
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+12
48.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to Jordan Brown for 12 yds to the TTU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
48.8%
Behren Morton run for 8 yds to the TTU 27Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+6
49.9%
Behren Morton pass complete to Jordan Brown for 6 yds to the TTU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
49.2%
Texas Tech Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TTU 28Similar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+15
48.8%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the TTU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
50.4%
Tahj Brooks run for 5 yds to the TTU 48Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 5
OWN 48
-5
51.2%
MORTON, Behren pass up the middle complete for 0 yards to BROWN, Jordan caught at the UCF40 and advanced to the TTU48 (THORNTON, Corey). PENALTY TTU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on WILBURN, Dennis enforced 5 yards from the TTU48 to the TTU43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+10
49.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to Jordan Brown for 10 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
51.5%
Behren Morton pass complete to Jordan Brown for 2 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+26
51.5%
Behren Morton pass complete to Drae McCray for 26 yds to the UCF 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
63.9%
Behren Morton pass complete to Mason Tharp for 19 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9END OF HALF
13 plays · 73 yds · 3:1343% → 50%
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
56.6%
RJ Harvey run for 7 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
55.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:13
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
56.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 6 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+24
55.2%
Johnny Richardson run for 24 yds to the TTU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
53.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+11
53.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to RJ Harvey for 11 yds to the TTU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
52.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+9
50.4%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 9 yds to the TTU 18Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+2
51.0%
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the TTU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
49.8%
Xavier Townsend run for 11 yds to the TTU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
49.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
49.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to RJ Harvey for 3 yds to the TTU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:4859% → 58%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
59.1%
Tahj Brooks run for 8 yds to the TTU 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+4
60.5%
Tahj Brooks run for 4 yds to the TTU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
59.5%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 3 yds to the TTU 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+2
59.8%
Behren Morton run for 2 yds to the TTU 37Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
59.1%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:12
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
57.6%
Austin McNamara punt for 53 yds , returns for no gain to the UCF 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 2:3144% → 41%
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+8
56.3%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 8 yds to the UCF 14Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 2
OWN 14
+10
55.9%
PLUMLEE, John Rhys pass deep to the left incomplete intended for BAKER, Javon thrown to the UCF49. PENALTY TTU Holding enforced 10 yards from the UCF14 to the UCF24 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
55.7%
PLUMLEE, John Rhys pass to the right incomplete intended for HUDSON, Kobe thrown to the UCF37. PENALTY UCF Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on GRABLE, Tylan enforced 5 yards from the UCF24 to the UCF19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 15
OWN 19
-5
56.0%
HARVEY, RJ rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the UCF24 (RODRIGUEZ, Jacob;ADEDIRE, Joseph). PENALTY UCF Holding on GRABLE, Tylan enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the UCF19 to the UCF10 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 24
OWN 10
0
56.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 24
OWN 10
+4
56.3%
Johnny Richardson run for 4 yds to the UCF 14Similar
Q3 12:12
3RD & 20
OWN 14
+11
57.4%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 11 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q3 9:41
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
58.3%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Xavier White at the TTU 35Similar
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
59.1%
BROOKS, Tahj rush to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the TTU40 (JOHNSON, Jason). PENALTY TTU Holding on STAATS, Rusty enforced 10 yards from the TTU35 to the TTU25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12INT
5 plays · 25 yds · 2:5458% → 62%
Q3 9:41
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+22
58.3%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 22 yds to the TTU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
61.9%
Tahj Brooks run for 11 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
62.6%
Tahj Brooks run for 6 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 4
OPP 36
-4
62.6%
Behren Morton pass complete to Tahj Brooks for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 40Similar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 8
OPP 40
-28
62.0%
Behren Morton pass intercepted Monroe Mills return for 28 yds to the TTU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13MISSED FG
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:3649% → 47%
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
51.3%
RJ Harvey run for 6 yds to the TTU 41Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+1
50.8%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 1 yd to the TTU 40Similar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+7
51.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 7 yds to the TTU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
50.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+13
50.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 13 yds to the TTU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
49.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
50.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+5
51.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Alec Holler for 5 yds to the TTU 15Similar
Q3 3:11
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+32
53.0%
Colton Boomer 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:3858% → 57%
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
58.1%
Behren Morton pass complete to Xavier White for 16 yds to the TTU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
59.6%
Tahj Brooks run for 4 yds to the TTU 40Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
61.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to Mason Tharp for no gain to the TTU 40Similar
Q3 3:11
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
58.7%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:33
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
56.9%
Austin McNamara punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Xavier Townsend at the UCF 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-4
54.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass intercepted C.J. Baskerville return for 4 yds to the UCF 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 41 yds · 1:1663% → 85%
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+17
63.0%
Behren Morton pass complete to Baylor Cupp for 17 yds to the UCF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
64.2%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
64.1%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:27
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+5
62.1%
UCF Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the UCF 19Similar
Q3 1:27
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+6
62.5%
Behren Morton pass complete to Drae McCray for 6 yds to the UCF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
85.2%
Tahj Brooks run for 13 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17FG
12 plays · 68 yds · 4:3923% → 35%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
76.7%
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+19
76.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 19 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
73.9%
RJ Harvey run for 14 yds to the TTU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
72.8%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 6 yds to the TTU 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+1
70.4%
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd to the TTU 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+7
72.5%
RJ Harvey run for 7 yds to the TTU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
70.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
71.1%
QB Keeper PLUMLEE, John Rhys rush up the middle for no gain to the TTU26 (COLE, Myles). PENALTY TTU Unsportsmanlike Conduct on MCALPINE, Trevon enforced half the distance from the goal, 13 yards from the TTU26 to the TTU13 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
70.4%
John Rhys Plumlee run for no gain to the TTU 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+6
70.4%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 6 yds to the TTU 7Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 7
0
72.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:21
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+24
65.4%
Colton Boomer 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 18FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 4:0872% → 89%
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
71.5%
Tahj Brooks run for 13 yds to the TTU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
73.2%
Tahj Brooks run for 6 yds to the TTU 44Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+12
74.5%
Behren Morton pass complete to Xavier White for 12 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
75.3%
Tahj Brooks run for 6 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+5
75.3%
Tahj Brooks run for 5 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
76.3%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
76.2%
Behren Morton run for no gain to the UCF 33Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
74.2%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:13
4TH & 10
OPP 33
+51
88.6%
Gino Garcia 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:4315% → 41%
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
85.4%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+71
59.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 71 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 20END OF 4TH QUARTER
15 plays · 48 yds · 5:3065% → 96%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
64.9%
Tahj Brooks run for 4 yds to the TTU 29Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
65.2%
Tahj Brooks run for 5 yds to the TTU 34Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
65.8%
Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the TTU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
66.4%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the TTU 39Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+11
67.9%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
50
+5
69.7%
MORTON, Behren pass to the right incomplete intended for THARP, Mason thrown to the UCF40. PENALTY Before the snap, UCF Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the TTU50 to the UCF45. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 5
OPP 45
+3
75.5%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+6
75.5%
Tahj Brooks run for 6 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
82.3%
Tahj Brooks run for 7 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+4
84.7%
Tahj Brooks run for 4 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
84.7%
[SG] Kneel down by TTU at UCF26 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 26
0
96.3%
[SG] Kneel down by TTU at UCF27 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:30
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 71 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer PAT BLOCKED)
-26.1
TD · Q3 0:11
Tahj Brooks run for 13 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)
+22.7
FG · Q4 6:13
Gino Garcia 51 yd FG GOOD
+14.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com