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BAY

Baylor 17 at TCU 42

TCU
2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:04 · Dominic Richardson run for 5 yds to the TCU 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 58Pregame prior+17.0Home team on offense−2.3Score differential−2.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Blowout margin+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:25: Josh Hoover pass complete to Jared Wiley for 81 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +7.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:36: Josh Hoover pass complete to Jared Wiley for 28 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +9.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:47: Blake Shapen run for 2 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +13.6 pts (now 32%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q3 3:39: Josh Hoover run for 3 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +9.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:27: Trey Sanders run for 2 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +7.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2BAY made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 12:13BAY 4th & 8 at BAY 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:50BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:05TCU 4th & 1 at BAY 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.7%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    70.2%−1.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    66.2%−5.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:36BAY 4th & 7 at BAY 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:04BAY 4th & 3 at TCU 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    29.4%−0.5
    90% to make
    Punt
    24.8%−5.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:51BAY 4th & 10 at TCU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.6%
    54% to make
    Punt
    18.9%−1.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:36BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 49, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.4%−1.6
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:09BAY 4th & 11 at midfield, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.3%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.8%
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:12BAY 4th & 4 at BAY 31, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:24BAY 4th & 4 at BAY 41, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:44TCU 4th & 10 at BAY 23, up 25
    Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6BAY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 5:44BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:40TCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:25TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:36TCU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:47BAY Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:39TCU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:27TCU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:02TCU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:4023% → 23%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
77.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 5 yds to the BAY 39Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+6
77.5%
Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the BAY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
77.5%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Richard ReeseSimilar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
77.5%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 3 yds to the BAY 48Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+1
77.5%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 1 yd to the BAY 47Similar
Q1 12:13
4TH & 8
OWN 47
+21
76.9%
Palmer Williams punt for 43 yds , JP Richardson returns for 21 yds to the TCU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2FUMBLE
5 plays · 48 yds · 2:2377% → 77%
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+17
76.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jared Wiley for 17 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
77.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 11 yds to the BAY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+24
77.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 24 yds to the BAY 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
77.2%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 6 yds to the BAY 2Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
76.8%
Emani Bailey run for 19 yds to the BAY 31 Emani Bailey fumbled, recovered by BAY Caden Jenkins No Huddle-Shotgun Bailey,Emani rush middle for 19 yards loss to the BU21 fumbled by Bailey,Emani at BU04 forced by Lanz,Cooper recovered by BU Jenkins,Caden at BU21 Jenkins,Caden return 10 yards to the BU31 (Coleman,Brandon).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3TD
12 plays · 69 yds · 4:0624% → 29%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
76.1%
Dominic Richardson run for 5 yds to the BAY 36Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 5
OWN 36
0
75.9%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray BaldwinSimilar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+4
76.2%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 4 yds to the BAY 40Similar
Q1 9:50
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+2
76.2%
Josh Cameron run for 2 yds to the BAY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
75.9%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Ketron Jackson Jr.Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+6
76.0%
Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the BAY 48Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+6
75.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 6 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
75.8%
Jordan Nabors run for 8 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+7
75.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 7 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+21
75.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jake Roberts for 21 yds to the TCU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
71.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 10 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4DOWNS
16 plays · 83 yds · 6:3272% → 69%
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
72.2%
Emani Bailey run for 1 yd to the TCU 12Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+10
72.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 10 yds to the TCU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
72.2%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 13 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
72.4%
Emani Bailey run for 1 yd to the TCU 36Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+5
72.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Emani Bailey for 5 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+14
72.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Emani Bailey for 14 yds to the BAY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
73.1%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to JoJo EarleSimilar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
73.0%
Cam Cook run for 2 yds to the BAY 43Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+16
72.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 16 yds to the BAY 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
73.5%
Cam Cook run for 8 yds to the BAY 19Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 2
OPP 19
0
73.5%
Cam Cook run for no gain to the BAY 19Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+4
73.1%
Emani Bailey run for 4 yds to the BAY 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
73.5%
Major Everhart run for 3 yds to the BAY 12Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+6
70.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Major Everhart for 6 yds to the BAY 6Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 6
0
69.8%
Emani Bailey run for no gain to the BAY 6Similar
Q2 14:05
4TH & 1
OPP 6
0
68.6%
Savion Williams run for no gain to the BAY 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2932% → 32%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
67.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jake Roberts for 3 yds to the BAY 9Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 7
OWN 9
0
67.7%
Dawson Pendergrass run for no gain to the BAY 9Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 7
OWN 9
0
68.1%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Ketron Jackson Jr.Similar
Q2 12:36
4TH & 7
OWN 9
+18
67.6%
Palmer Williams punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BAY 40 , JP Richardson returns for 18 yds to the BAY 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6TD
5 plays · 40 yds · 1:5669% → 75%
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
68.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jared Wiley for 6 yds to the BAY 34Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 4
OPP 34
0
69.2%
Emani Bailey run for no gain to the BAY 34Similar
Q2 12:36
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+6
68.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 6 yds to the BAY 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
69.2%
Emani Bailey run for 1 yd to the BAY 27Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+27
74.6%
Emani Bailey run for 27 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7DOWNS
10 plays · 62 yds · 4:3629% → 33%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
71.4%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the BAY 27Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+12
71.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 12 yds to the BAY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
70.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 8 yds to the BAY 47Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+26
69.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 26 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
69.1%
Dominic Richardson run for 12 yds to the TCU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
69.1%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 4 yds to the TCU 11Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+2
69.1%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 2 yds to the TCU 9Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+1
69.7%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the TCU 8Similar
Q2 6:04
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+5
67.5%
Dominic Richardson run for 5 yds to the TCU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8TD
2 plays · 87 yds · 0:3971% → 79%
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
71.0%
Emani Bailey run for 6 yds to the TCU 19Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+81
78.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jared Wiley for 81 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9FG
14 plays · 44 yds · 4:3422% → 26%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
77.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 8 yds to the BAY 33Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
76.7%
Blake Shapen run for 7 yds to the BAY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
77.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for no gain to the BAY 40Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+11
77.3%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 11 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
76.1%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray BaldwinSimilar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
76.7%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+15
76.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 15 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
75.2%
Jordan Nabors run for no gain to the TCU 31Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+2
75.2%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 2 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 8
OPP 29
-2
76.4%
Blake Shapen sacked by Damonic Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 31Similar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+48
74.3%
Isaiah Hankins 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
74.1%
Josh Hoover sacked by Matt Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11TD
11 plays · 81 yds · 3:1774% → 85%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
73.5%
Emani Bailey run for 2 yds to the TCU 21Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 8
OWN 21
0
73.3%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to JP RichardsonSimilar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+11
72.3%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jared Wiley for 11 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
73.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 9 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+5
75.3%
Emani Bailey run for 5 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+41
75.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Trent Battle for 41 yds to the BAY 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
76.3%
Trent Battle run for no gain to the BAY 13Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-15
76.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Hoover,Josh pass incomplete short right to Robinson,Jaylon PENALTY TCU Pass Interference (Richardson,JP) 15 yards from BU13 to BU28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 25
OPP 28
0
75.4%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jaylon RobinsonSimilar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 25
OPP 28
+28
84.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jared Wiley for 28 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:4917% → 32%
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
83.5%
Blake Shapen run for 15 yds to the BAY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
82.6%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the BAY 42Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+7
82.7%
Blake Shapen run for 7 yds to the BAY 49Similar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 1
OWN 49
0
82.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to for no gain to the BAY 49Similar
Q3 11:36
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+1
82.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
50
+48
81.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 48 yds to the TCU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
68.3%
Blake Shapen run for 2 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 4:0275% → 88%
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
74.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Hoover,Josh pass incomplete short right to Rogers,DJ broken up by Lemear,Devin PENALTY TCU Illegal Shift 5 yards from TCU17 to TCU12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:41
1ST & 15
OWN 12
+3
74.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 3 yds to the TCU 15Similar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+41
74.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 41 yds to the BAY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
77.5%
Savion Williams run for 9 yds to the BAY 35Similar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+10
78.2%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jared Wiley for 10 yds to the BAY 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
78.2%
Emani Bailey run for no gain to the BAY 25Similar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
78.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for no gain to the BAY 25Similar
Q3 7:41
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+22
76.9%
Josh Hoover run for 22 yds to the BAY 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
78.2%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to JoJo EarleSimilar
Q3 3:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
88.1%
Josh Hoover run for 3 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14DOWNS
10 plays · 25 yds · 4:3013% → 12%
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.9%
Blake Shapen run for no gain to the BAY 25Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 2 yds to the BAY 27Similar
Q3 3:39
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+13
87.6%
Blake Shapen run for 13 yds to the BAY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
85.4%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the BAY 42Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+9
85.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 9 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
84.4%
Blake Shapen run for 1 yd to the TCU 48Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+1
84.9%
Blake Shapen run for 1 yd to the TCU 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+1
86.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 11
50
0
88.1%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Dawson PendergrassSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15TD
8 plays · 50 yds · 3:4290% → 98%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
50
+4
90.2%
Emani Bailey run for 4 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 14
OWN 46
+25
89.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jared Wiley for 25 yds to the BAY 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
90.2%
Emani Bailey run for no gain to the BAY 29Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+2
90.2%
Emani Bailey run for 2 yds to the BAY 31Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 12
OPP 31
+15
89.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Major Everhart for 15 yds to the BAY 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+14
90.2%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Major Everhart for 14 yds to the BAY 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
90.2%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Major EverhartSimilar
Q4 10:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.6%
Trey Sanders run for 2 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:153% → 3%
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 3 yds to the BAY 28Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
96.7%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Josh CameronSimilar
Q4 10:27
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
96.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 3 yds to the BAY 31Similar
Q4 9:12
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
96.9%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Drake DabneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17TD
1 play · 31 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
99.6%
Emani Bailey run for 31 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:380% → 0%
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.6%
Dominic Richardson run for 5 yds to the BAY 30Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
99.5%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the BAY 34Similar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
99.5%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the BAY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.5%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 4 yds to the BAY 39Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
99.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 4 yds to the BAY 43Similar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+2
99.5%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 2 yds to the BAY 41Similar
Q4 5:24
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
99.7%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray BaldwinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:40100% → 100%
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.8%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Major EverhartSimilar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+1
99.8%
Cam Cook run for 1 yd to the BAY 40Similar
Q4 5:24
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+17
99.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Blake Nowell for 17 yds to the BAY 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
99.8%
Corey Wren run for 1 yd to the BAY 22Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+1
99.8%
Cam Cook run for 1 yd loss to the BAY 23Similar
Q4 5:24
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
99.7%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Major EverhartSimilar
Q4 2:44
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+2
99.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jack Bech for 2 yds to the BAY 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20END OF GAME
6 plays · 34 yds · 2:440% → 0%
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
99.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 9 yds to the BAY 30Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+8
99.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jake Roberts for 8 yds to the BAY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
99.7%
Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the BAY 44Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+2
99.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Gavin Yates for 2 yds to the BAY 46Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+3
99.7%
Sawyer Robertson run for 3 yds to the BAY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
99.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the TCU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:47
Blake Shapen run for 2 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
-13.6
TD · Q3 3:39
Josh Hoover run for 3 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)
+9.9
TD · Q3 11:36
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jared Wiley for 28 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)
+9.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com