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TEX

Texas 26 at Iowa State 16

ISU
2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreTEX score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:13 · Ryan Sanborn punt for 33 yds, downed at the ISU 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 116Pregame prior−6.5Home team on offense−8.8Garbage-time factor−2.8Score differential−3.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:00: Bert Auburn 50 yd FG GOOD — ISU win probability +2.8 pts (now 36%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:53: Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 23 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK) — TEX win probability +11.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:13: Eli Sanders 14 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Chase Contreraz PAT blocked) — ISU win probability +16.0 pts (now 35%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:44: Easton Dean 66 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Chase Contreraz Kick) — TEX win probability +10.8 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 6:14: Bert Auburn 42 Yd Field Goal — TEX win probability +3.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8TEX made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 12:55TEX 4th & 10 at ISU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:08ISU 4th & 4 at ISU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:23TEX 4th & 19 at TEX 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−0.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:27ISU 4th & 16 at TEX 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−0.6
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    35.5%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:25TEX 4th & 10 at TEX 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:59ISU 4th & 14 at ISU 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−1.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:17TEX 4th & 9 at ISU 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    54.4%−3.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:31ISU 4th & 3 at TEX 33, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.4%−1.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    41.7%−1.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:42ISU 4th & 3 at ISU 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00TEX 4th & 12 at ISU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−1.2
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.8%
    51% to make
    Punt
    56.1%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:23ISU 4th & 6 at TEX 43, down 3
    Close callPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    39.3%−2.0
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:13TEX 4th & 9 at TEX 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%−2.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:44ISU 4th & 1 at ISU 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    34.0%−2.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:14TEX 4th & 6 at ISU 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    74.5%−8.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:26ISU 4th & 17 at ISU 36, down 10
    Numbers favored punt by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.5%−1.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:47TEX 4th & 1 at ISU 20, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    93.3%−1.2
    75% to make
    Punt
    89.5%−5.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TEX made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q3 5:53TEX Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 2:13ISU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    35.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TEXDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:0573% → 72%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.4%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
27.4%
CJ Baxter run for no gain to the TEX 25Similar
Q1 14:24
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
27.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 11 yds to the TEX 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
27.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 15 yds to the ISU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
28.0%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
28.1%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:08
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
28.2%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:55
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
28.4%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4528% → 29%
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
28.4%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+6
28.4%
Eli Sanders run for 6 yds to the ISU 16Similar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 4
OWN 16
0
28.6%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:08
4TH & 4
OWN 16
0
28.6%
Tyler Perkins punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Xavier Worthy at the TEX 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:3771% → 70%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
28.7%
CJ Baxter run for 12 yds to the TEX 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-7
28.8%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Joey Petersen for a loss of 7 yards to the TEX 37Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & 17
OWN 37
+7
29.4%
CJ Baxter run for 7 yds to the TEX 44Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 10
OWN 44
-9
29.6%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Tyler Onyedim for a loss of 9 yards to the TEX 35Similar
Q1 9:23
4TH & 19
OWN 35
0
30.3%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4FG
14 plays · 53 yds · 5:4630% → 34%
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
30.3%
Eli Sanders run for no gain to the ISU 20Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+13
30.3%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 13 yds to the ISU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
30.9%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+2
30.9%
Eli Sanders run for 2 yds to the ISU 35Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+15
30.7%
(07:40) BECHT, Rocco pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HIGGINS, Jayden thrown to the TEX35, clock 07:35. PENALTY TEX Pass Interference on WATTS, Ryan enforced 15 yards to the ISU50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
50
+2
31.6%
Abu Sama III run for 2 yds to the TEX 48Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+12
32.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 12 yds to the TEX 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
32.5%
Cartevious Norton run for 3 yds to the TEX 33Similar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+12
33.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 12 yds to the TEX 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
33.6%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
33.7%
BECHT, Rocco pass to the right incomplete intended for JACKSON, Daniel thrown to the TEX14, clock 04:34. PENALTY ISU Illegal Touch-Pass on JACKSON, Daniel enforced 0 yards from the TEX21 to the TEX21, penalty results in a loss of down [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 10
OPP 21
-6
33.5%
Rocco Becht sacked by Byron Murphy II for a loss of 6 yards to the TEX 27Similar
Q1 3:27
4TH & 16
OPP 27
+45
34.1%
Chase Contreraz 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:5766% → 64%
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+17
34.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 17 yds to the TEX 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
34.2%
CJ Baxter run for 4 yds to the TEX 40Similar
Q1 2:32
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-10
33.9%
(02:32) BAXTER, CJ rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the TEX43 (BACON, Caleb), clock 02:28. PENALTY TEX Holding on CAMPBELL, DJ enforced 10 yards from the TEX40 to the TEX30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 16
OWN 30
+6
35.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jaydon Blue for 6 yds to the TEX 36Similar
Q1 1:31
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
35.8%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:25
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
36.3%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 54 yds, downed at the ISU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:1436% → 36%
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
36.0%
Cartevious Norton run for no gain to the ISU 10Similar
Q1 0:33
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
36.3%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:29
3RD & 10
OWN 10
-4
35.9%
Rocco Becht sacked by Alfred Collins and TEAM for a loss of 4 yards to the ISU 6Similar
Q2 14:59
4TH & 14
OWN 6
0
36.0%
Tyler Perkins punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7FG
8 plays · 11 yds · 3:3066% → 66%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
34.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to CJ Baxter for 4 yds to the ISU 29Similar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+4
34.5%
Jaydon Blue run for 4 yds to the ISU 25Similar
Q2 13:39
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+2
35.6%
Jaydon Blue run for 2 yds to the ISU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-10
35.1%
(13:00) EWERS, Quinn pass deep to the left complete for 23 yards to MITCHELL, Adonai caught at the ISU0 and advanced to the ISU0, TOUCHDOWN TEX, score nullified by penalty, clock 12:50 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY TEX Holding on BANKS JR., Kelvin enforced 10 yards from the ISU23 to the ISU33 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 20
OPP 33
+12
35.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jaydon Blue for 12 yds to the ISU 21Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 8
OPP 21
-1
35.5%
Jaydon Blue run for a loss of 1 yard to the ISU 22Similar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 9
OPP 22
0
36.9%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:17
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+39
34.3%
Bert Auburn 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8MISSED FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:4637% → 39%
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
37.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 18 yds to the ISU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
38.9%
Rocco Becht run for 2 yds to the ISU 45Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+15
39.4%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Benjamin Brahmer for 15 yds to the TEX 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
40.6%
Abu Sama III run for 1 yd to the TEX 39Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+5
40.9%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 5 yds to the TEX 34Similar
Q2 7:54
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+1
41.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 1 yd to the TEX 33Similar
Q2 7:31
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+51
39.4%
Chase Contreraz 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9FUMBLE
4 plays · 58 yds · 1:3666% → 67%
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
34.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 11 yds to the TEX 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
32.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to CJ Baxter for 1 yd to the TEX 45Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+30
33.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 30 yds to the ISU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
33.1%
Xavier Worthy run for 16 yds to the ISU 9 Xavier Worthy fumbled, recovered by ISU Will McLaughlin (05:50) [SG] WORTHY, Xavier rush to the right for a gain of 16 yards, WORTHY, Xavier fumbled at ISU12 forced by COOPER, Jeremiah, recovered by ISU MCLAUGHLIN, Will at the ISU9, returned 0 yards to the ISU9, End of Play, clock 05:40.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:5740% → 40%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
40.2%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+9
40.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Stevo Klotz for 9 yds to the ISU 18Similar
Q2 4:53
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+5
39.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 5 yds to the ISU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
40.4%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 12 yds to the ISU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
41.0%
Abu Sama III run for a loss of 1 yard to the ISU 34Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+8
40.5%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 8 yds to the ISU 42Similar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
41.8%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:42
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
39.8%
Tyler Perkins punt for 44 yds , Xavier Worthy returns for no gain Texas Penalty, Illegal Block (Yards) to the TEX 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 2:2461% → 65%
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
38.9%
Jaydon Blue run for 3 yds to the TEX 13Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+13
40.9%
CJ Baxter run for 13 yds to the TEX 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
40.3%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-3
40.8%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Joey Petersen for a loss of 3 yards to the TEX 23Similar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 13
OWN 23
+17
42.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 17 yds to the TEX 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+30
39.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 30 yds to the ISU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
35.9%
Texas Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the ISU 35Similar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+6
37.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jaydon Blue for 6 yds to the ISU 29Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+3
36.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 3 yds to the ISU 26Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 6
OPP 26
0
36.8%
Texas Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Intentional Grounding on EWERS, Quinn enforced a result of a (Yards) to the ISU 31Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 12
OPP 32
+50
35.5%
Bert Auburn 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 4:3637% → 38%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
36.5%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 16 yds to the ISU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
38.7%
Eli Sanders run for 2 yds to the ISU 43Similar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+3
38.9%
Eli Sanders run for 3 yds to the ISU 46Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+7
38.3%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Benjamin Brahmer for 7 yds to the TEX 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
40.1%
Eli Sanders run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 13
50
+3
37.9%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Abu Sama III for 3 yds to the TEX 47Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+4
38.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Hansen for 4 yds to the TEX 43Similar
Q3 10:23
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
38.1%
Tyler Perkins punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Xavier Worthy at the TEX 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13TD
9 plays · 91 yds · 4:2464% → 81%
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
36.1%
CJ Baxter run for 3 yds to the TEX 12Similar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+21
35.0%
CJ Baxter run for 21 yds to the TEX 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
33.3%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+19
33.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 19 yds to the ISU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
31.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jaydon Blue for 7 yds to the ISU 41Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+9
31.0%
CJ Baxter run for 9 yds to the ISU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
30.2%
CJ Baxter run for 1 yd to the ISU 31Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+8
30.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 8 yds to the ISU 23Similar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+23
19.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 23 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14TD
8 plays · 83 yds · 3:3217% → 35%
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
17.4%
Abu Sama III run for 1 yd to the ISU 18Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+7
17.2%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Benjamin Brahmer for 7 yds to the ISU 25Similar
Q3 4:29
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+9
15.7%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 9 yds to the ISU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+33
16.3%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 33 yds to the TEX 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
19.0%
Cartevious Norton run for a loss of 1 yard to the TEX 34Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+20
18.6%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Benjamin Brahmer for 20 yds to the TEX 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
34.6%
Eli Sanders 14 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Chase Contreraz PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5371% → 67%
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
29.5%
CJ Baxter run for 1 yd to the TEX 30Similar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
29.7%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:18
3RD & 9
OWN 30
0
31.6%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:13
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
33.1%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 33 yds, downed at the ISU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
30.7%
Rocco Becht pass intercepted Jerrin Thompson return for no gain to the TEX 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 17TD
3 plays · 57 yds · 1:0573% → 75%
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
27.5%
CJ Baxter run for 13 yds to the ISU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
26.5%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 13 yds to the ISU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
24.9%
Gunnar Helm 31 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Quinn Ewers Pass to Jordan Whittington for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 2:0730% → 20%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
29.5%
Abu Sama III run for 5 yds to the ISU 30Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
30.2%
Rocco Becht run for 3 yds to the ISU 33Similar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
30.2%
Abu Sama III run for 1 yd to the ISU 34Similar
Q4 12:44
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+66
19.5%
Easton Dean 66 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Chase Contreraz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 6:2581% → 91%
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
18.6%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 9 yds to the TEX 29Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+6
17.3%
CJ Baxter run for 6 yds to the TEX 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
17.4%
(11:45) EWERS, Quinn pass deep to the right incomplete intended for MITCHELL, Adonai broken up by PURCHASE, Myles at the ISU26, clock 11:38. PENALTY ISU Pass Interference on PURCHASE, Myles enforced 15 yards to the TEX50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
50
+5
15.5%
CJ Baxter run for 5 yds to the ISU 45Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+4
14.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to CJ Baxter for 4 yds to the ISU 41Similar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+3
13.2%
CJ Baxter run for 3 yds to the ISU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
12.3%
CJ Baxter run for 2 yds to the ISU 36Similar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+8
13.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to CJ Baxter for 8 yds to the ISU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
12.2%
Jaydon Blue run for 1 yd to the ISU 27Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 9
OPP 27
-4
12.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to CJ Baxter for a loss of 4 yards to the ISU 31Similar
Q4 6:44
3RD & 13
OPP 31
+7
12.3%
Jaydon Blue run for 7 yds to the ISU 24Similar
Q4 6:14
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+42
9.1%
Bert Auburn 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:476% → 4%
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
6.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 18 yds to the ISU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
6.7%
Abu Sama III run for 2 yds to the ISU 45Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+5
6.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Hansen for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:31
3RD & 3
50
-5
4.0%
(04:31) BECHT, Rocco pass to the right complete for 13 yards to BRAHMER, Benjamin caught at the TEX37 and advanced to the TEX37, End of Play, clock 04:24. PENALTY Before the snap, ISU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the ISU50 to the ISU45. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:09
3RD & 8
OWN 45
-9
4.5%
Rocco Becht sacked by Ethan Burke and Byron Murphy II for a loss of 9 yards to the ISU 36Similar
Q4 3:26
4TH & 17
OWN 36
+11
3.8%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Hansen for 11 yds to the ISU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21END OF GAME
13 plays · 26 yds · 2:4293% → 97%
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
7.0%
CJ Baxter run for no gain to the ISU 47Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+15
7.1%
Iowa State Penalty, Personal Foul (J.R. Singleton) to the ISU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
5.6%
Texas Penalty, False Start (Cole Hutson) to the ISU 34Similar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+14
5.9%
CJ Baxter run for 14 yds to the ISU 20Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 1
OPP 20
0
4.4%
CJ Baxter run for no gain to the ISU 20Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 1
OPP 20
0
3.4%
CJ Baxter run for no gain to the ISU 20Similar
Q4 1:47
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+2
2.8%
Jaydon Blue run for 2 yds to the ISU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
2.5%
(01:16) [NH] Kneel down by EWERS, Quinn at ISU19 (team loss of 1), clock 01:11.Similar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 11
OPP 19
0
2.6%
(00:37) [NH] Kneel down by EWERS, Quinn at ISU21 (team loss of 2), clock 00:33.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:13
Eli Sanders 14 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Chase Contreraz PAT blocked)
+16
TD · Q3 5:53
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 23 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)
-11
TD · Q4 12:44
Easton Dean 66 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Chase Contreraz Kick)
-10.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com