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OKST

Oklahoma State 43 at Houston 30

HOU
2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadOKST aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreOKST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDSAFETYTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:16 · Laine Wilkins punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKST 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 91Home team on offense+3.2Pregame prior−8.7Score differential+0.4Garbage-time factor+0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:14: Joseph Manjack IV pass complete to Donovan Smith for 28 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK) — HOU win probability +11.8 pts (now 56%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:29: Alan Bowman pass complete to Leon Johnson III for 21 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK) — OKST win probability +11.6 pts (now 52%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:58: Ollie Gordon II run for 6 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK) — OKST win probability +13.0 pts (now 67%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:14: Ollie Gordon II run for 6 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK) — OKST win probability +13.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:30: Donovan Smith run for 31 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK) — HOU win probability +20.0 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8OKST made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 12:32OKST 4th & 19 at OKST 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:10HOU 4th & 3 at OKST 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    36.4%−0.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    36.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:34OKST 4th & 3 at HOU 29, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.5%−0.3
    58% to make
    Punt
    55.9%−2.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:16OKST 4th & 5 at OKST 39, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:21HOU 4th & 12 at OKST 43, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−0.4
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    62.5%−0.6
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:31HOU 4th & 23 at HOU 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%−5.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:16HOU 4th & 15 at HOU 41, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%−2.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:46HOU 4th & 7 at HOU 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%−1.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:26HOU 4th & 8 at HOU 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:03OKST 4th & 5 at HOU 42, up 10
    Close callPunted · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    77.5%−1.5
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:27HOU 4th & 3 at HOU 13, down 10
    Close callPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:45OKST 4th & 5 at HOU 27, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.4%−<0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    77.6%−6.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:29HOU 4th & 5 at HOU 43, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.0%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4OKST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 7:43HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:15HOU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:59OKST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    58.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:14HOU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:29OKST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:58OKST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:14OKST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:30HOU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.2%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.6%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:19OKST Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OKSTDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:2868% → 67%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
31.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 16 yds to the OKST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
31.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 10 yds to the HOU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
31.8%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-2
32.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for a loss of 2 yards to the OKST 49Similar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 12
OWN 49
-7
32.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ollie Gordon II for a loss of 7 yards to the OKST 42Similar
Q1 12:32
4TH & 19
OWN 42
0
32.9%
Hudson Kaak punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Malik Fleming at the HOU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2DOWNS
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:2233% → 35%
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
32.8%
Donovan Smith run for 1 yd to the HOU 14Similar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 9
OWN 14
0
32.7%
Parker Jenkins run for no gain to the HOU 14Similar
Q1 12:32
3RD & 9
OWN 14
+13
32.6%
SMITH, Donovan pass up the middle incomplete thrown to the HOU27. PENALTY OSU Pass Interference on EPPS, Cameron enforced at the spot of the foul for 13 yards to the HOU27 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+22
32.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 22 yds to the HOU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
33.1%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-10
33.0%
JENKINS, Parker rush to the right for a gain of 31 yards to the OSU20 (BLACK, Korie), out of bounds. PENALTY HOU Holding on HUNTER, Demetrius enforced 10 yards from the HOU49 to the HOU39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 20
OWN 39
+13
32.9%
Donovan Smith run for 13 yds to the OKST 48Similar
Q1 12:32
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+4
33.0%
Donovan Smith run for 4 yds to the OKST 44Similar
Q1 9:10
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
34.5%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 3INT TD
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:2766% → 63%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
33.7%
Brennan Presley run for 2 yds to the OKST 46Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
33.7%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+11
34.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 11 yds to the HOU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
33.6%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-57
36.6%
Alan Bowman pass intercepted Isaiah Hamilton return for 57 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 4FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 4:0963% → 62%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
37.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Leon Johnson III for 13 yds to the OKST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
37.0%
Ollie Gordon II run for 6 yds to the OKST 44Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+7
36.7%
Ollie Gordon II run for 7 yds to the HOU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
36.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ollie Gordon II for 2 yds to the HOU 47Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
36.6%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+11
36.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 11 yds to the HOU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-4
36.6%
Jaden Nixon run for a loss of 4 yards to the HOU 40Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 14
OPP 40
+11
37.0%
Ollie Gordon II run for 11 yds to the HOU 29Similar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 3
OPP 29
0
36.5%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:34
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+46
37.7%
Alex Hale 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 1:1938% → 44%
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
38.3%
Parker Jenkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 24Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+16
38.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 16 yds to the HOU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
43.7%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Jonah Wilson for 60 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 6TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:1257% → 62%
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-11
42.9%
run for a loss of 11 yards to the OKST 9 fumbled, recovered by OKST Alan Bowman [SG] OSU fumbled snap, OSU rush up the middle for a loss of 11 yards, fumbled at OSU9 , recovered by OSU BOWMAN, Alan at the OSU9, returned 0 yards to the OSU9, End of Play.Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 21
OWN 9
+2
43.3%
Ollie Gordon II run for 2 yds to the OKST 11Similar
Q1 2:11
3RD & 19
OWN 11
+15
43.6%
Houston Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jamal Morris) to the OKST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
42.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 14 yds to the OKST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
44.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 6 yds to the OKST 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+9
43.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 9 yds to the HOU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-4
43.4%
Brennan Presley run for a loss of 4 yards to the HOU 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 46
+15
44.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 15 yds to the HOU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
42.8%
BOWMAN, Alan pass deep to the left incomplete intended for BRAY, Jaden broken up by HAMILTON, Isaiah at the HOU0. PENALTY HOU Offsides on HOLMES JR., Anthony declined Before the snap, HOU Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the HOU31 to the HOU26. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 26
+3
42.5%
Ollie Gordon II run for 3 yds to the HOU 23Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+23
38.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Jaden Bray for 23 yds for a TD (Alex Hale PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4542% → 56%
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.6%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
42.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Tony Mathis Jr. for 6 yds to the HOU 31Similar
Q2 12:14
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
41.8%
Donovan Smith run for 5 yds to the HOU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
42.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 20 yds to the OKST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
44.2%
Parker Jenkins run for 16 yds to the OKST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
56.0%
Joseph Manjack IV pass complete to Donovan Smith for 28 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5149% → 47%
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
51.2%
Ollie Gordon II run for 5 yds to the OKST 39Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 5
OWN 39
0
50.5%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:07
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
51.2%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:16
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
53.0%
Wes Pahl punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 37 yds · 4:5555% → 59%
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
55.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Mike O'Laughlin for 2 yds to the HOU 22Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-3
55.0%
Parker Jenkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the HOU 19Similar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+27
54.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Parker Jenkins for 27 yds to the HOU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
56.7%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 3 yds to the HOU 49Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+10
56.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 10 yds to the OKST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
57.0%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 5 yds to the OKST 36Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 5
OPP 36
-2
56.9%
Donovan Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKST 38Similar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
56.1%
Donovan Smith run for no gain to the OKST 38Similar
Q2 9:16
4TH & 7
OPP 38
-5
55.3%
Houston Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the OKST 43Similar
Q2 4:21
4TH & 12
OPP 43
0
58.6%
Laine Wilkins punt for 40 yds, downed at the OKST 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 10SF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-3
61.7%
Ollie Gordon II run for a loss of 3 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11INT
4 plays · 15 yds · 2:0063% → 68%
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
63.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Matt Byrnes for 5 yds to the HOU 35Similar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+9
63.1%
Donovan Smith run for 9 yds to the HOU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
64.5%
Parker Jenkins run for 1 yd to the HOU 45Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 9
OWN 45
-29
68.3%
Donovan Smith pass intercepted Trey Rucker return for 29 yds to the HOU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 12TD
2 plays · 22 yds · 0:4340% → 52%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
60.0%
Ollie Gordon II run for 1 yd to the HOU 21Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+21
48.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Leon Johnson III for 21 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -13 yds · 0:5855% → 53%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
54.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Parker Jenkins for 2 yds to the HOU 27Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
54.6%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-10
53.3%
SMITH, Donovan pass to the right complete for 12 yards to MANJACK IV, Joseph caught at the HOU39 and advanced to the HOU39, End of Play. PENALTY HOU Holding on UNIJE, Reuben enforced 10 yards from the HOU27 to the HOU17 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
53.3%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:29
4TH & 18
OWN 17
-5
52.4%
Houston Penalty, False Start (Latreveon McCutchin) to the HOU 12Similar
Q2 0:31
4TH & 23
OWN 12
0
53.3%
Laine Wilkins punt for 40 yds , Brennan Presley returns for no gain to the OKST 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 14FG
6 plays · 51 yds · 0:3147% → 55%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+27
53.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 27 yds to the HOU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
50.4%
Ollie Gordon II run for 6 yds to the HOU 22Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+7
50.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 7 yds to the HOU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
50.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 11 yds to the HOU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
44.7%
Alex Hale 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:4451% → 50%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
50.6%
Parker Jenkins run for 8 yds to the HOU 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+13
52.0%
Parker Jenkins run for 13 yds to the HOU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
52.9%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+3
51.9%
Parker Jenkins run for 3 yds to the HOU 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 49
-8
51.5%
Donovan Smith sacked by Collin Oliver for a loss of 8 yards to the HOU 41Similar
Q3 12:16
4TH & 15
OWN 41
0
49.7%
Laine Wilkins punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKST 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 16TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 4:1849% → 67%
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
51.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ollie Gordon II for no gain to the OKST 26Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+18
51.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 18 yds to the OKST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
48.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 11 yds to the HOU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
47.6%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
47.8%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+18
49.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 18 yds to the HOU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
46.1%
Ollie Gordon II run for 4 yds to the HOU 23Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 6
OPP 23
-1
46.1%
Ollie Gordon II run for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 24Similar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+18
47.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ollie Gordon II for 18 yds to the HOU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
46.1%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
33.1%
Ollie Gordon II run for 6 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:1240% → 38%
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
39.7%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 7 yds to the HOU 32Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-10
42.3%
Houston Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tony Mathis Jr.) to the HOU 23Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-1
39.4%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Tony Mathis Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 22Similar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+6
37.7%
Donovan Smith run for 6 yds to the HOU 28Similar
Q3 5:46
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
37.6%
Laine Wilkins punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKST 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 18TD
3 plays · 63 yds · 0:3263% → 80%
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+62
36.7%
Ollie Gordon II run for 62 yds to the HOU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
33.2%
Oklahoma State Penalty, False Start (Joe Michalski) to the HOU 6Similar
Q3 5:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
19.6%
Ollie Gordon II run for 6 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:4823% → 20%
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
22.8%
Parker Jenkins run for 3 yds to the HOU 28Similar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-10
23.1%
Donovan Smith sacked by Nickolas Martin for a loss of 10 yards to the HOU 18Similar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+1
21.4%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 1 yd to the HOU 19Similar
Q3 3:29
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+15
20.1%
WILKINS, Laine punt 16 yards to the HOU35 out of bounds, clock 03:29. PENALTY OSU Roughing the Kicker on ROBERTSON, Parker enforced 15 yards from the HOU19 to the HOU34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
22.6%
Parker Jenkins run for 2 yds to the HOU 36Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
22.8%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:29
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
21.8%
SMITH, Donovan pass to the left complete for 21 yards to BROWN, Samuel caught at the HOU49 and advanced to the OSU43 (MCKINNEY, D.J.). PENALTY HOU Illegal Touch-Pass on BROWN, Samuel enforced 0 yards from the HOU36 to the HOU36, penalty results in a loss of down [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:26
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
19.9%
Laine Wilkins punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKST 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 43 yds · 3:2378% → 79%
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
21.8%
Ollie Gordon II run for 3 yds to the OKST 18Similar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+21
21.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 21 yds to the OKST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
19.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 14 yds to the HOU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
18.7%
Jaden Nixon run for no gain to the HOU 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+5
18.8%
Ollie Gordon II run for 5 yds to the HOU 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 42
0
19.1%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:03
4TH & 5
OPP 42
0
21.4%
Hudson Kaak punt for 36 yds, downed at the HOU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3620% → 17%
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
19.5%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+3
19.3%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 3 yds to the HOU 9Similar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 7
OWN 9
+4
18.2%
Donovan Smith run for 4 yds to the HOU 13Similar
Q4 12:27
4TH & 3
OWN 13
0
16.7%
Laine Wilkins punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 22FG
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:4283% → 92%
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
16.7%
Ollie Gordon II run for 7 yds to the HOU 44Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+12
16.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 12 yds to the HOU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
16.0%
Jaden Nixon run for 1 yd to the HOU 31Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+4
16.1%
Jaden Nixon run for 4 yds to the HOU 27Similar
Q4 12:27
3RD & 5
OPP 27
0
16.4%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:45
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+44
7.8%
Alex Hale 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23TD
5 plays · 84 yds · 2:1014% → 37%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+29
13.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 29 yds to the HOU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
14.7%
Donovan Smith run for 10 yds to the OKST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
15.8%
Parker Jenkins run for 11 yds to the OKST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
17.0%
Parker Jenkins run for 3 yds to the OKST 31Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+31
37.0%
Donovan Smith run for 31 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 24TD
14 plays · 78 yds · 5:0479% → 97%
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
21.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 6 yds to the OKST 28Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+10
20.5%
Ollie Gordon II run for 10 yds to the OKST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
19.2%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
19.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 4 yds to the OKST 42Similar
Q4 7:23
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+4
19.4%
BOWMAN, Alan pass to the left complete for 4 yards to PRESLEY, Brennan caught at the OSU38 and advanced to the OSU46 (ROBBINS, Taleeq;UGWOEGBU, David). PENALTY Before the snap, HOU Illegal Substitution enforced 4 yards from the OSU42 to the OSU46. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:23
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+8
19.3%
Ollie Gordon II run for 8 yds to the HOU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
18.2%
Ollie Gordon II run for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 46 Ollie Gordon II fumbled, recovered by OKST Ollie Gordon II [SG] GORDON, Ollie rush up the middle for a loss of 1 yard, GORDON, Ollie fumbled at HOU47 , recovered by OSU GORDON, Ollie at the HOU47, returned 1 yard to the HOU46 (MORRIS, Jamal).Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+36
18.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 36 yds to the HOU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
10.1%
Ollie Gordon II run for 1 yd to the HOU 9Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
8.6%
Ollie Gordon II run for 6 yds to the HOU 3Similar
Q4 2:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
2.8%
Ollie Gordon II run for 3 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 25DOWNS
5 plays · 42 yds · 0:454% → 4%
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+23
4.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 23 yds to the HOU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
4.3%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:14
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
4.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Tony Mathis Jr. for 5 yds to the HOU 43Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
4.3%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:29
4TH & 5
OWN 43
-6
3.6%
Donovan Smith pass intercepted Cam Smith return for 6 yds to the OKST 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 26END OF GAME
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:2599% → 99%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
1.5%
Ollie Gordon II run for 3 yds to the OKST 46Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+3
1.4%
Ollie Gordon II run for 3 yds to the OKST 49Similar
Q4 1:21
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+15
1.4%
Houston Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Malik Robinson) to the HOU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
1.3%
Kneel down by BOWMAN, Alan at HOU34 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 34
0
1.2%
Kneel down by BOWMAN, Alan at HOU35 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:30
Donovan Smith run for 31 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)
+20
TD · Q3 5:14
Ollie Gordon II run for 6 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK)
-13.6
TD · Q3 7:58
Ollie Gordon II run for 6 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK)
-13
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com