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Oklahoma 31 at BYU 24

BYU
2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadOU aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:50 · Luke Elzinga punt for 39 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 109Pregame prior−27.8Home team on offense−2.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−2.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:49: Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Isaac Rex for 1 yd for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK) — BYU win probability +5.5 pts (now 16%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Will Ferrin 49 yd FG GOOD — BYU win probability +4.0 pts (now 21%) (top driver: 4th down).
  3. TD · Q3 5:55: Jake Retzlaff pass intercepted Billy Bowman Jr. return for 100 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK) — OU win probability +12.8 pts (now 81%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:19: Jake Retzlaff run for 10 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK) — BYU win probability +21.3 pts (now 39%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:57: Gavin Sawchuk run for 16 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK) — OU win probability +23.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8OU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 12:53OU 4th & 8 at OU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:21BYU 4th & 5 at BYU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:05BYU 4th & 1 at OU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    10.4%−0.4
    70% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−1.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:26OU 4th & 27 at OU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%−0.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:43OU 4th & 4 at BYU 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.4%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    75.7%−4.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:27BYU 4th & 2 at BYU 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.8%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00BYU 4th & 16 at OU 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%−1.3
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    18.6%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:55BYU 4th & 7 at BYU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:30OU 4th & 3 at OU 16, tied
    Close callPunted · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:57BYU 4th & 17 at BYU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−3.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:50OU 4th & 6 at OU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−0.7
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:02BYU 4th & 2 at OU 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    19.8%−2.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    18.8%−3.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:20OU 4th & 6 at BYU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    44.0%−17.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:08BYU 4th & 7 at BYU 28, down 7
    Close callPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3OU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:04OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:05BYU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:06OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:49BYU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:55OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:19BYU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:57OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.0%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:0796% → 95%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
4.5%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the OU 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
4.5%
Oklahoma Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OU 22Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+20
4.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 20 yds to the OU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
4.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+2
4.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gavin Sawchuk for 2 yds to the OU 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
4.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:53
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
5.1%
Luke Elzinga punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:325% → 6%
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+20
5.1%
Aidan Robbins run for 20 yds to the BYU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
5.1%
Aidan Robbins run for 5 yds to the BYU 38Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 5
OWN 38
0
5.1%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:53
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
5.1%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:21
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
5.5%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 3:1795% → 94%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
5.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 7 yds to the OU 22Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 3
OWN 22
-5
5.5%
Oklahoma Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OU 17Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+14
5.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 14 yds to the OU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
5.5%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 12 yds to the OU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+55
5.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jayden Gibson for 55 yds to the BYU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
5.4%
Gavin Sawchuk run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 4Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
5.4%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 1 yd to the BYU 3 Gavin Sawchuk fumbled, recovered by OU Dillon Gabriel [NHSG] SAWCHUK, Gavin rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard, SAWCHUK, Gavin fumbled at BYU2 forced by TOOLEY, Max, recovered by OKL GABRIEL, Dillon at the BYU3, returned 0 yards to the BYU3, End of Play.Similar
Q1 8:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
5.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Nic Anderson for 3 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:596% → 9%
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
5.8%
Jake Retzlaff run for 12 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
5.9%
Aidan Robbins run for 7 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 3
OWN 44
0
6.0%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+13
5.9%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Kody Epps for 13 yds to the OU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
6.0%
Jake Retzlaff run for 11 yds to the OU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
6.1%
Aidan Robbins run for 2 yds to the OU 30Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 8
OPP 30
-10
6.1%
BYU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the OU 28Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+5
6.1%
Aidan Robbins run for 5 yds to the OU 23Similar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 1
OPP 23
0
6.0%
Aidan Robbins run for no gain to the OU 23Similar
Q1 3:05
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+23
8.7%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Chase Roberts for 23 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · -6 yds · 2:3992% → 90%
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
8.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 9 yds to the OU 34Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
8.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Nic Anderson for 2 yds to the OU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
8.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
8.3%
Dillon Gabriel run for 3 yds to the OU 39Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
8.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:05
4TH & 7
OWN 39
-15
8.5%
ELZINGA, Luke pass to the right complete for 21 yards to DOWNS, Ethan caught at the BYU47 and advanced to the BYU40 (ALFREY, Talan). PENALTY OKL Pass Interference on HARRINGTON, Justin enforced 15 yards to the OKL24 [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:05
4TH & 22
OWN 24
-5
8.6%
Oklahoma Penalty, False Start (Rondell Bothroyd) to the OU 19Similar
Q1 0:26
4TH & 27
OWN 19
0
9.8%
Luke Elzinga punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6FUMBLE
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
10.6%
Jake Retzlaff run for a loss of 5 yards to the OU 48 Jake Retzlaff fumbled, recovered by OU Rondell Bothroyd [SG] QB Keeper RETZLAFF, Jake rush up the middle for a loss of 5 yards, RETZLAFF, Jake fumbled at OKL48 , recovered by OKL BOTHROYD, Rondell at the OKL48, returned 0 yards to the OKL48, End of Play, clock 00:22.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7TD
7 plays · 52 yds · 1:5491% → 92%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
9.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 6 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+3
8.9%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 3 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+5
8.9%
Tawee Walker run for 5 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
9.0%
Dillon Gabriel run for 5 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+6
8.7%
Tawee Walker run for 6 yds to the BYU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
8.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+27
7.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jayden Gibson for 27 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:178% → 16%
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
8.3%
Aidan Robbins run for no gain to the BYU 25Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
8.3%
Aidan Robbins run for 7 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q2 13:06
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+29
8.3%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Kody Epps for 29 yds to the OU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
8.9%
Aidan Robbins run for 3 yds to the OU 36Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
8.9%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:06
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+22
8.9%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Chase Roberts for 22 yds to the OU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
9.2%
Jake Retzlaff run for 7 yds to the OU 7Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+5
9.2%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Deion Smith for 5 yds to the OU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
10.8%
Jake Retzlaff run for 1 yd to the OU 1Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
16.3%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Isaac Rex for 1 yd for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 9FG
14 plays · 71 yds · 5:0687% → 86%
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
12.7%
Tawee Walker run for 10 yds to the OU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
12.6%
GABRIEL, Dillon pass deep to the left incomplete intended for ANDERSON, Nic thrown to the BYU30. PENALTY BYU Pass Interference on BAMBA, Mory enforced 15 yards to the OKL50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
50
+12
11.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 12 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-9
11.7%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Jackson Cravens for a loss of 9 yards to the BYU 47Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 19
OPP 47
+7
12.2%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 7 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q2 7:49
3RD & 12
OPP 40
+24
12.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 24 yds to the BYU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
11.3%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 3 yds to the BYU 13Similar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 7
OPP 13
-2
13.1%
Drake Stoops run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 15Similar
Q2 4:19
3RD & 9
OPP 15
+10
13.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Austin Stogner for 10 yds to the BYU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
13.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
13.1%
Dillon Gabriel run for 1 yd to the BYU 4Similar
Q2 4:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
13.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+23
13.7%
Zach Schmit 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10FG
14 plays · 33 yds · 2:3415% → 21%
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
14.5%
Jake Retzlaff run for a loss of 4 yards to the BYU 31Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+1
14.7%
Jake Retzlaff run for 1 yd to the BYU 32Similar
Q2 2:27
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+11
14.2%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Kody Epps for 11 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q2 2:27
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+13
15.2%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Isaac Rex for 13 yds to the OU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
16.7%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
16.5%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:27
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+18
15.5%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Darius Lassiter for 18 yds to the OU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
17.5%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-9
17.4%
Jake Retzlaff run for a loss of 9 yards to the OU 35 Jake Retzlaff fumbled, recovered by BYU Jake Retzlaff [SG] QB Keeper RETZLAFF, Jake rush up the middle for a loss of 9 yards, RETZLAFF, Jake fumbled at OKL35 , recovered by BYU RETZLAFF, Jake at the OKL35, returned 0 yards to the OKL35, End of Play.Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 19
OPP 35
+3
16.5%
LJ Martin run for 3 yds to the OU 32Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 16
OPP 32
+49
20.5%
Will Ferrin 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:0521% → 22%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
20.8%
Aidan Robbins run for 7 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+13
22.0%
Aidan Robbins run for 13 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
22.5%
Aidan Robbins run for 3 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
22.7%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
21.6%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:55
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
22.1%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Gavin Freeman at the OU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 2:2579% → 74%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
20.7%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Gavin Sawchuk for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 8Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 11
OWN 8
0
20.9%
Gavin Sawchuk run for no gain to the OU 8Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 11
OWN 8
+17
21.7%
Jackson Arnold run for 27 yds to the OU 35 Oklahoma Penalty, Illegal Block (Austin Stogner) to the OU 13Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 6
OWN 13
+3
21.4%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Tawee Walker for 3 yds to the OU 16Similar
Q3 10:30
4TH & 3
OWN 16
0
24.7%
Luke Elzinga punt for 41 yds , Parker Kingston returns for no gain to the BYU 36Similar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
25.8%
BYU Penalty, Illegal Snap on PAY, Connor enforced (Connor Pay) to the BYU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:3324% → 24%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 15
OWN 31
0
24.4%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+2
24.2%
Jake Retzlaff run for 2 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 13
OWN 33
-4
23.3%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Parker Kingston for a loss of 4 yards to the BYU 29Similar
Q3 8:57
4TH & 17
OWN 29
0
24.1%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 56 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0777% → 73%
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-3
23.5%
Jackson Arnold run for a loss of 3 yards to the OU 13Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 13
OWN 13
+7
24.0%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Nic Anderson for 7 yds to the OU 20Similar
Q3 8:57
3RD & 6
OWN 20
0
24.5%
Jackson Arnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:50
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
26.7%
Luke Elzinga punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15INT TD
4 plays · 58 yds · 1:5530% → 19%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+25
29.5%
Aidan Robbins run for 25 yds to the OU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
32.0%
Jake Retzlaff run for 11 yds to the OU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+22
32.0%
Aidan Robbins run for 22 yds to the OU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-100
19.1%
Jake Retzlaff pass intercepted Billy Bowman Jr. return for 100 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:3614% → 39%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
13.8%
Aidan Robbins run for 14 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
14.6%
Aidan Robbins run for 18 yds to the OU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
16.1%
Deion Smith run for 5 yds to the OU 38Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 5
OPP 38
-2
16.1%
Deion Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the OU 40Similar
Q3 3:02
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+5
16.6%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Deion Smith for 5 yds to the OU 35Similar
Q3 3:02
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+26
15.6%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Kody Epps for 26 yds to the OU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
17.8%
Jake Retzlaff run for 4 yds to the OU 5Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
17.8%
BYU Penalty, False Start (Kingsley Suamataia) to the OU 10Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
39.1%
Jake Retzlaff run for 10 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 17MISSED FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 3:5370% → 67%
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+29
30.3%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 29 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
28.3%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 13 yds to the BYU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
26.4%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the BYU 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 24
0
26.4%
Jackson Arnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 24
-5
28.7%
Oklahoma Penalty, False Start (Walter Rouse) to the BYU 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 29
+16
30.4%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 16 yds to the BYU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
26.3%
Jackson Arnold run for 2 yds to the BYU 11Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+2
26.3%
Tawee Walker run for 2 yds to the BYU 9Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 9
0
27.9%
Jackson Arnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:20
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+28
32.9%
Zach Schmit 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18FUMBLE
7 plays · 5 yds · 3:3737% → 43%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
36.5%
Aidan Robbins run for 3 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
36.3%
Aidan Robbins run for 2 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+6
35.1%
Aidan Robbins run for 6 yds to the BYU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
37.3%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Keelan Marion for no gain to the BYU 31Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+6
36.7%
Aidan Robbins run for 6 yds to the BYU 37Similar
Q4 8:43
3RD & 4
OWN 37
-12
42.5%
Jake Retzlaff sacked for a loss of 12 yards to the BYU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:4667% → 91%
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
32.9%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+7
32.9%
Jackson Arnold run for 7 yds to the BYU 16Similar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+16
9.5%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 16 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 2:4914% → 11%
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
13.9%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Kody Epps for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 24Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
13.7%
Aidan Robbins run for 4 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
13.4%
BYU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 23Similar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-5
16.6%
BYU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 18Similar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+10
15.3%
Aidan Robbins run for 10 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q4 5:08
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
11.1%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Gavin Freeman at the OU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21END OF GAME
12 plays · 22 yds · 5:0890% → 96%
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
10.0%
Jackson Arnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+19
10.3%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 19 yds to the OU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
8.8%
Jackson Arnold run for 5 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+6
8.4%
Jackson Arnold run for 6 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
8.4%
Jackson Arnold run for no gain to the BYU 40Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+2
6.4%
Tawee Walker run for 2 yds to the BYU 38Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+8
6.7%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 8 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-8
5.9%
Jackson Arnold run for a loss of 8 yards to the BYU 38Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 18
OPP 38
0
6.6%
[SG] Kneel down by OKL at BYU42 (team loss of 4).Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 22
OPP 42
0
3.8%
[SG] Kneel down by OKL at BYU48 (team loss of 6), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:57
Gavin Sawchuk run for 16 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)
-23.3
TD · Q3 1:19
Jake Retzlaff run for 10 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
+21.3
TD · Q3 5:55
Jake Retzlaff pass intercepted Billy Bowman Jr. return for 100 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)
-12.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com