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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadOU aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreOU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · [SG] Kneel down by OKL at BYU48 (team loss of 6), clock 00:00.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 7:49: Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Isaac Rex for 1 yd for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK) — BYU win probability +5.5 pts (now 16%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Will Ferrin 49 yd FG GOOD — BYU win probability +4.0 pts (now 21%) (top driver: 4th down).
- TD · Q3 5:55: Jake Retzlaff pass intercepted Billy Bowman Jr. return for 100 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK) — OU win probability +12.8 pts (now 81%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:19: Jake Retzlaff run for 10 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK) — BYU win probability +21.3 pts (now 39%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:57: Gavin Sawchuk run for 16 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK) — OU win probability +23.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8OU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 12:53OU 4th & 8 at OU 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 91.9% before the snapGo for it91.9%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.0%average punt
- Q1 11:21BYU 4th & 5 at BYU 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snapGo for it8.6%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.6%average punt
- Q1 3:05BYU 4th & 1 at OU 23, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.8%71% to convertField goal10.4%−0.470% to makePunt9.2%−1.5average punt
- Q1 0:26OU 4th & 27 at OU 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 86.0% before the snapGo for it85.5%−0.66% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.1%average punt
- Q2 2:43OU 4th & 4 at BYU 4, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 80.2% before the snapGo for it79.8%40% to convertField goalTheir call79.4%−0.493% to makePunt75.7%−4.1average punt
- Q2 2:27BYU 4th & 2 at BYU 43, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call19.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt18.8%−0.9average punt
- Q2 0:00BYU 4th & 16 at OU 32, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.6% before the snapGo for it17.7%−1.316% to convertField goalTheir call19.1%51% to makePunt18.6%−0.5average punt
- Q3 12:55BYU 4th & 7 at BYU 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snapGo for it26.5%−0.237% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.8%average punt
- Q3 10:30OU 4th & 3 at OU 16, tiedClose callPunted · 71.0% before the snapGo for it71.4%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.2%−0.2average punt
- Q3 8:57BYU 4th & 17 at BYU 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snapGo for it26.8%−3.313% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.0%average punt
- Q3 7:50OU 4th & 6 at OU 20, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 68.4% before the snapGo for it67.8%−0.738% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.4%average punt
- Q3 3:02BYU 4th & 2 at OU 35, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call22.1%57% to convertField goal19.8%−2.345% to makePunt18.8%−3.2average punt
- Q4 12:20OU 4th & 6 at BYU 9, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.5% before the snapGo for it60.4%−0.933% to convertField goalTheir call61.2%89% to makePunt44.0%−17.2average punt
- Q4 5:08BYU 4th & 7 at BYU 28, down 7Close callPunted · 16.1% before the snapGo for it13.7%36% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.1%−0.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3OU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 8:04OU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.6%97% to makeGo for two90.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:05BYU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call12.5%97% to makeGo for two12.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:06OU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.5%97% to makeGo for two87.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:49BYU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call17.2%97% to makeGo for two17.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:55OU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.5%97% to makeGo for two80.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:19BYU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call35.4%97% to makeGo for two35.1%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 7:57OU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.4%97% to makeGo for two78.0%−0.445% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOUDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 2:0796% → 95%
BYUDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 25 yds · 1:325% → 6%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 3TD8 plays · 85 yds · 3:1795% → 94%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
5.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 7 yds to the OU 22Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+14
5.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 14 yds to the OU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+55
5.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jayden Gibson for 55 yds to the BYU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
5.4%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 1 yd to the BYU 3 Gavin Sawchuk fumbled, recovered by OU Dillon Gabriel [NHSG] SAWCHUK, Gavin rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard, SAWCHUK, Gavin fumbled at BYU2 forced by TOOLEY, Max, recovered by OKL GABRIEL, Dillon at the BYU3, returned 0 yards to the BYU3, End of Play.Similar
Q1 8:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
5.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Nic Anderson for 3 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4TD10 plays · 75 yds · 4:596% → 9%
OUDrive 5PUNT8 plays · -6 yds · 2:3992% → 90%
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
8.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 9 yds to the OU 34Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
8.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Nic Anderson for 2 yds to the OU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
4TH & 7
OWN 39
-15
8.5%
ELZINGA, Luke pass to the right complete for 21 yards to DOWNS, Ethan caught at the BYU47 and advanced to the BYU40 (ALFREY, Talan). PENALTY OKL Pass Interference on HARRINGTON, Justin enforced 15 yards to the OKL24 [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6FUMBLE1 play · -5 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
10.6%
Jake Retzlaff run for a loss of 5 yards to the OU 48 Jake Retzlaff fumbled, recovered by OU Rondell Bothroyd [SG] QB Keeper RETZLAFF, Jake rush up the middle for a loss of 5 yards, RETZLAFF, Jake fumbled at OKL48 , recovered by OKL BOTHROYD, Rondell at the OKL48, returned 0 yards to the OKL48, End of Play, clock 00:22.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7TD7 plays · 52 yds · 1:5491% → 92%
BYUDrive 8TD11 plays · 75 yds · 5:178% → 16%
Q2 13:06
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+29
8.3%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Kody Epps for 29 yds to the OU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:06
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+22
8.9%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Chase Roberts for 22 yds to the OU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+5
9.2%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Deion Smith for 5 yds to the OU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
16.3%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Isaac Rex for 1 yd for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 9FG14 plays · 71 yds · 5:0687% → 86%
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
12.6%
GABRIEL, Dillon pass deep to the left incomplete intended for ANDERSON, Nic thrown to the BYU30. PENALTY BYU Pass Interference on BAMBA, Mory enforced 15 yards to the OKL50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
50
+12
11.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 12 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-9
11.7%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Jackson Cravens for a loss of 9 yards to the BYU 47Similar
Q2 7:49
3RD & 12
OPP 40
+24
12.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 24 yds to the BYU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:19
3RD & 9
OPP 15
+10
13.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Austin Stogner for 10 yds to the BYU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10FG14 plays · 33 yds · 2:3415% → 21%
Q2 2:27
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+11
14.2%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Kody Epps for 11 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q2 2:27
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+13
15.2%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Isaac Rex for 13 yds to the OU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+18
15.5%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Darius Lassiter for 18 yds to the OU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-9
17.4%
Jake Retzlaff run for a loss of 9 yards to the OU 35 Jake Retzlaff fumbled, recovered by BYU Jake Retzlaff [SG] QB Keeper RETZLAFF, Jake rush up the middle for a loss of 9 yards, RETZLAFF, Jake fumbled at OKL35 , recovered by BYU RETZLAFF, Jake at the OKL35, returned 0 yards to the OKL35, End of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 23 yds · 2:0521% → 22%
Q3 12:55
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
22.1%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Gavin Freeman at the OU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 7 yds · 2:2579% → 74%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
20.7%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Gavin Sawchuk for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 8Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 11
OWN 8
+17
21.7%
Jackson Arnold run for 27 yds to the OU 35 Oklahoma Penalty, Illegal Block (Austin Stogner) to the OU 13Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 6
OWN 13
+3
21.4%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Tawee Walker for 3 yds to the OU 16Similar
Q3 10:30
4TH & 3
OWN 16
0
24.7%
Luke Elzinga punt for 41 yds , Parker Kingston returns for no gain to the BYU 36Similar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
25.8%
BYU Penalty, Illegal Snap on PAY, Connor enforced (Connor Pay) to the BYU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 1:3324% → 24%
Q3 10:30
3RD & 13
OWN 33
-4
23.3%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Parker Kingston for a loss of 4 yards to the BYU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0777% → 73%
Q3 8:57
2ND & 13
OWN 13
+7
24.0%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Nic Anderson for 7 yds to the OU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15INT TD4 plays · 58 yds · 1:5530% → 19%
Q3 5:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-100
19.1%
Jake Retzlaff pass intercepted Billy Bowman Jr. return for 100 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16TD10 plays · 75 yds · 4:3614% → 39%
Q3 3:02
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+26
15.6%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Kody Epps for 26 yds to the OU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 17MISSED FG11 plays · 59 yds · 3:5370% → 67%
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 29
+16
30.4%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 16 yds to the BYU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18FUMBLE7 plays · 5 yds · 3:3737% → 43%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
37.3%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Keelan Marion for no gain to the BYU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19TD3 plays · 25 yds · 0:4667% → 91%
BYUDrive 20PUNT7 plays · 3 yds · 2:4914% → 11%
OUDrive 21END OF GAME12 plays · 22 yds · 5:0890% → 96%
Q4 2:01
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+8
6.7%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 8 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:57
Gavin Sawchuk run for 16 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)
-23.3
TD · Q3 1:19
Jake Retzlaff run for 10 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
+21.3
TD · Q3 5:55
Jake Retzlaff pass intercepted Billy Bowman Jr. return for 100 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)
-12.8