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OKST

Oklahoma State 3 at UCF 45

UCF
2023 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadOKST aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreOKST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:21 · Mitch McCarthy punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKST 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 72Home team on offense+19.6Score differential+13.3Garbage-time factor+6.7Blowout margin−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:08: John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 7 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK) — UCF win probability +3.1 pts (now 55%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 14:04: Colton Boomer 30 yd FG GOOD — UCF win probability +5.0 pts (now 68%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:35: John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 75 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK) — UCF win probability +10.3 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 10:00: Alex Hale 25 yd FG GOOD — UCF win probability +4.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:56: RJ Harvey run for 92 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK) — UCF win probability +6.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 5 of 6OKST made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q2 14:04UCF 4th & 10 at OKST 13, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    55.0%−7.3
    average punt
  2. Q2 11:49OKST 4th & 2 at midfield, down 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%−2.0
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:52OKST 4th & 18 at OKST 27, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%−3.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:57UCF 4th & 6 at OKST 23, up 24
    Close callWent for it · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.1%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    84.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    79.0%−5.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:02OKST 4th & 9 at OKST 24, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−1.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:21UCF 4th & 7 at UCF 37, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:00OKST 4th & 7 at UCF 7, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−4.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:43OKST 4th & 1 at UCF 40, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−0.9
    34% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:43OKST 4th & 1 at UCF 40, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−0.9
    34% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:32OKST 4th & 10 at OKST 47, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:54UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 11, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:54OKST 4th & 7 at UCF 17, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:16OKST 4th & 8 at UCF 8, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:46OKST 4th & 6 at OKST 31, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:24UCF 4th & 6 at UCF 32, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:32OKST 4th & 7 at OKST 27, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:19UCF 4th & 1 at OKST 43, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 11:50UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:08UCF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:35UCF Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:56UCF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:09UCF Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:00UCF Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1048% → 51%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+37
48.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 37 yds to the OKST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
48.4%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 9 yds to the OKST 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+2
48.4%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the OKST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
48.4%
Johnny Richardson run for 8 yds to the OKST 19Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+18
48.4%
RJ Harvey run for 18 yds to the OKST 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
48.4%
RJ Harvey run for no gain to the OKST 1Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
49.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for no gain to the OKST 1Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
50.5%
RJ Harvey 1 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 32 yds · 1:3150% → 50%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
50.2%
Ollie Gordon II run for 2 yds to the OKST 27Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+21
50.1%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 21 yds to the OKST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
49.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 9 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 1
OPP 43
0
50.4%
Ollie Gordon II run for no gain to the UCF 43 Ollie Gordon II fumbled, recovered by UCF Demari Henderson, returned 0 yards to the UCF43, End of Play, clock 10:19.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3TD
4 plays · 57 yds · 1:1152% → 55%
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+38
51.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 38 yds to the OKST 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
51.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 5 yds to the OKST 14Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+7
51.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Alec Holler for 7 yds to the OKST 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
54.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 7 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 4INT
11 plays · 52 yds · 5:0546% → 43%
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
53.8%
Ollie Gordon II run for 1 yd to the OKST 26Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+13
53.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 13 yds to the OKST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
53.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Leon Johnson III for 9 yds to the OKST 48Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 1
OWN 48
-5
53.3%
Oklahoma State Penalty, False Start (Rashod Owens) to the OKST 43Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
53.5%
Ollie Gordon II run for no gain to the OKST 43Similar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+14
53.7%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Leon Johnson III for 14 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
53.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 9 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+21
53.1%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 21 yds to the UCF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-10
56.4%
BOWMAN, Alan scrambles up the middle for a gain of 10 yards to the UCF3 (MARTINEZ, Nikai). PENALTY OSU Holding on WILSON, Preston enforced 10 yards from the UCF13 to the UCF23 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 20
OPP 23
0
57.0%
Alan Bowman pass intercepted by UCF Braeden Marshall, returned 10 yards to the UCF 22.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5FG
14 plays · 65 yds · 4:5960% → 68%
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
59.5%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 20Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+2
59.3%
Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 10
OWN 22
-5
59.0%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Braeden Marshall) to the UCF 17Similar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 15
OWN 17
+17
58.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 17 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-8
59.6%
Kobe Hudson sacked by Kendal Daniels for a loss of 8 yards to the UCF 26Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 18
OWN 26
+12
59.3%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 12 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+38
59.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Alec Holler for 38 yds to the OKST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-4
63.8%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 4 yards to the OKST 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 28
0
63.6%
Johnny Richardson run for no gain to the OKST 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 28
0
63.0%
PLUMLEE, John Rhys pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HUDSON, Kobe broken up by MCKINNEY, D.J. at the OSU0. PENALTY OSU Pass Interference on MCKINNEY, D.J. enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the OSU13 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
63.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
63.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
63.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:04
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+30
68.3%
Colton Boomer 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0534% → 32%
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
66.1%
Ollie Gordon II run for 2 yds to the OKST 44Similar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+4
66.1%
Ollie Gordon II run for 4 yds to the OKST 48Similar
Q2 13:54
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+2
65.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:49
4TH & 2
50
0
68.0%
Hudson Kaak punt for 32 yds, downed at the UCF 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7TD
3 plays · 82 yds · 1:1471% → 81%
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
71.1%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+4
71.0%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 4 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+75
81.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 75 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:4321% → 18%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
78.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 10 yds to the OKST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
77.9%
run for a loss of 5 yards to the OKST 30Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+8
78.7%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 8 yds to the OKST 38Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
79.8%
Oklahoma State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Alan Bowman) to the OKST 27Similar
Q2 8:52
4TH & 18
OWN 27
0
81.7%
Hudson Kaak punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Xavier Townsend at the UCF 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9DOWNS
9 plays · 41 yds · 3:5585% → 87%
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
85.2%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 9 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+15
85.5%
RJ Harvey run for 15 yds to the OKST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
85.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+13
85.6%
RJ Harvey run for 13 yds to the OKST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
85.7%
Johnny Richardson run for no gain to the OKST 27Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+4
85.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 4 yds to the OKST 23Similar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 6
OPP 23
0
88.4%
John Rhys Plumlee run for no gain to the OKST 23Similar
Q2 4:57
4TH & 6
OPP 23
0
87.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5516% → 15%
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
84.3%
Ollie Gordon II run for 1 yd to the OKST 24Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 9
OWN 24
0
84.4%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:57
3RD & 9
OWN 24
0
84.5%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:02
4TH & 9
OWN 24
0
85.4%
Hudson Kaak punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4188% → 90%
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
88.1%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 7
OWN 37
-2
88.1%
Johnny Richardson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 35Similar
Q2 2:27
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+2
90.2%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q2 2:21
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
90.0%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKST 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 12INT
2 plays · 18 yds · 0:4113% → 13%
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+18
87.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ollie Gordon II for 18 yds to the OKST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
87.3%
Alan Bowman pass intercepted by UCF Demari Henderson, no return.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13END OF HALF
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:4091% → 91%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
91.2%
run for 2 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
90.9%
RJ Harvey run for no gain to the UCF 49Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+15
90.7%
PLUMLEE, John Rhys pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HUDSON, Kobe thrown to the OSU24; QB hurried by LATU, Nathan. PENALTY OSU Pass Interference on BLACK, Korie enforced 15 yards to the OSU36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
91.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 5 yds to the OKST 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 14FG
13 plays · 68 yds · 5:0011% → 8%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
88.7%
Ollie Gordon II run for 5 yds to the OKST 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
88.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ollie Gordon II for 9 yds to the OKST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
88.1%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+11
88.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Leon Johnson III for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
-4
87.9%
Jaden Nixon run for a loss of 4 yards to the OKST 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 46
+15
88.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Leon Johnson III for 15 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+18
87.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 18 yds to the UCF 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
86.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Leon Johnson III for 9 yds to the UCF 12Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+2
86.9%
Jaden Nixon run for 2 yds to the UCF 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
86.9%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
86.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Leon Johnson III for 3 yds to the UCF 7Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
87.6%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
91.8%
Alex Hale 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15FUMBLE
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:3993% → 93%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.9%
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd to the UCF 26Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-2
93.2%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 24 fumble on the sack (forced by Collin Oliver), recovered by OSU Xavier Benson at the UCF24, returned 0 yards to the UCF24, Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 16INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:129% → 8%
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
91.4%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
91.9%
Alan Bowman pass intercepted by UCF Demari Henderson, returned for 0 yards to the UCF 8.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17TD
1 play · 92 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+92
98.6%
RJ Harvey run for 92 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 18DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:051% → 1%
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
98.7%
Ollie Gordon II run for 5 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
98.6%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+4
98.7%
Ollie Gordon II run for 4 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q3 7:43
4TH & 1
OPP 40
0
98.8%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:43
4TH & 1
OPP 40
0
98.8%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 3:3499% → 99%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
99.1%
RJ Harvey run for 6 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+2
99.1%
Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+18
99.0%
RJ Harvey run for 18 yds to the OKST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+21
99.1%
RJ Harvey run for 21 yds to the OKST 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
99.1%
Johnny Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKST 14Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 11
OPP 14
0
99.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 11
OPP 14
+14
99.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 14 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:261% → 0%
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.5%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
99.5%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
99.5%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:32
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
99.6%
Hudson Kaak punt for 44 yds, downed at the UCF 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3899% → 100%
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
99.4%
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd to the UCF 10Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+1
99.4%
Xavier Townsend run for 1 yd to the UCF 11Similar
Q3 3:32
3RD & 8
OWN 11
0
99.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:54
4TH & 8
OWN 11
0
99.5%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKST 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 22DOWNS
11 plays · 48 yds · 2:380% → 0%
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+18
99.7%
Jaden Nixon run for 18 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+18
99.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 18 yds to the UCF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
99.6%
Alan Bowman run for 1 yd to the UCF 19Similar
Q3 1:54
2ND & 9
OPP 19
0
99.6%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:54
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+2
99.6%
Jaden Nixon run for 2 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q3 1:54
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+8
99.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 8 yds to the UCF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
99.7%
Ollie Gordon II run for 2 yds to the UCF 7Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
99.7%
Ollie Gordon II run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 8Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.7%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.7%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23TD
8 plays · 92 yds · 5:16100% → 100%
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+37
99.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 37 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
99.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+10
99.6%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 10 yds to the OKST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
99.7%
RJ Harvey run for 7 yds to the OKST 36Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+4
99.7%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the OKST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
99.7%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKST 34Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 12
OPP 34
+32
99.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 32 yds to the OKST 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
RJ Harvey 2 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:120% → 0%
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
99.9%
Jaden Nixon run for 5 yds to the OKST 32Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 5
OWN 32
-1
99.9%
Jaden Nixon run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKST 31Similar
Q4 8:58
3RD & 6
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Garret Rangel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:46
4TH & 6
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Hudson Kaak punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Xavier Townsend at the UCF 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:22100% → 100%
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
99.9%
RJ Harvey run for no gain to the UCF 28Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
99.9%
RJ Harvey run for no gain to the UCF 28Similar
Q4 7:46
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+9
99.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 9 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q4 7:46
4TH & 1
OWN 37
-5
99.9%
UCF Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the UCF 32Similar
Q4 5:24
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKST 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:520% → 0%
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Garret Rangel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+3
99.9%
Sesi Vailahi run for 3 yds to the OKST 27Similar
Q4 5:24
3RD & 7
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Garret Rangel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:32
4TH & 7
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Hudson Kaak punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 27DOWNS
6 plays · 18 yds · 3:13100% → 100%
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
99.9%
RJ Harvey run for 7 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+3
99.9%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 3 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
99.9%
Timmy McClain run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 8
50
0
99.9%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Randy Pittman for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 8
50
+7
99.9%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 7 yds to the OKST 43Similar
Q4 1:19
4TH & 1
OPP 43
-1
99.9%
Timmy McClain run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKST 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · 17 yds · 1:190% → 0%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
100.0%
Sesi Vailahi run for 2 yds to the OKST 46Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+7
100.0%
Sesi Vailahi run for 7 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+8
100.0%
Sesi Vailahi run for 8 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:35
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 75 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
+10.3
TD · Q3 8:56
RJ Harvey run for 92 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
+6.8
FG · Q2 14:04
Colton Boomer 30 yd FG GOOD
+5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com