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TEX

Texas 29 at TCU 26

TCU
2023 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreTEX score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:29 · Ryan Sanborn punt for 48 yds , JP Richardson returns for 11 yds to the TCU 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 111Pregame prior−13.9Home team on offense−32.4Score differential−15.9Garbage-time factor−5.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:01: Quinn Ewers pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — TEX win probability +5.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:12: Jonathon Brooks run for 22 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK) — TEX win probability +9.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:02: Emani Bailey run for 17 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +13.4 pts (now 18%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:51: Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — TCU win probability +5.3 pts (now 13%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:28: Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 14 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +31.1 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8TEX made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 13:50TEX 4th & 2 at TEX 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:48TCU 4th & 13 at TCU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:23TEX 4th & 1 at TCU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    72.1%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:41TCU 4th & 5 at TEX 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    28.6%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:35TCU 4th & 17 at TEX 38, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−0.3
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.9%
    38% to make
    Punt
    28.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:50TEX 4th & 9 at TCU 12, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.6%
    86% to make
    Punt
    66.3%−2.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:35TCU 4th & 2 at TCU 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:32TEX 4th & 6 at TCU 14, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    63.5%−4.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:55TCU 4th & 9 at TCU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:50TCU 4th & 14 at TEX 47, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:29TEX 4th & 4 at TEX 27, up 20
    Close callPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:50TCU 4th & 2 at TEX 2, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    5.7%−1.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    -1.1%−8.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:02TEX 4th & 6 at TEX 38, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:53TEX 4th & 3 at TCU 31, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.0%−1.0
    54% to make
    Punt
    90.9%−2.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:51TCU 4th & 3 at TEX 3, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.4%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    5.7%−1.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−4.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3TEX made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 6:53TEX Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:01TEX Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    78.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:12TEX Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:02TCU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:51TCU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    11.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    11.1%−0.8
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:28TCU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TEXDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1081% → 80%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
19.4%
Jonathon Brooks run for 1 yd to the TEX 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
19.4%
Jonathon Brooks run for 7 yds to the TEX 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
19.4%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Xavier WorthySimilar
Q1 13:50
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
20.0%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:0220% → 20%
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
20.0%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 6 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 4
OWN 38
-14
20.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Richardson,JP rush left for 1 yard gain to the TCU39 (Ford,Jaylan) PENALTY TCU Personal Foul (Williams,Savion) 14 yards from TCU38 to TCU24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 13
OWN 29
0
19.9%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jaylon RobinsonSimilar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 18
OWN 24
0
19.9%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jaylon RobinsonSimilar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 13
OWN 29
0
19.9%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jaylon RobinsonSimilar
Q1 12:48
4TH & 13
OWN 29
0
20.3%
Jordy Sandy punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Xavier Worthy at the TEX 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3DOWNS
5 plays · 23 yds · 2:2580% → 79%
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
20.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 14 yds to the TEX 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
20.3%
Jonathon Brooks run for 4 yds to the TEX 47Similar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+3
20.3%
Jonathon Brooks run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:48
3RD & 3
50
+2
20.3%
Jonathon Brooks run for 2 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q1 10:23
4TH & 1
OPP 48
0
21.5%
Savion Red run for no gain to the TCU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4FG
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:4222% → 24%
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
22.1%
Emani Bailey run for 11 yds to the TEX 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
22.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jared Wiley for 4 yds to the TEX 37Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+9
22.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 9 yds to the TEX 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
22.2%
Savion Williams run for 7 yds to the TEX 21Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+1
22.2%
Emani Bailey run for 1 yd to the TEX 22Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+1
22.1%
Emani Bailey run for 1 yd to the TEX 23Similar
Q1 7:41
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+41
23.8%
Griffin Kell 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4876% → 78%
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+73
23.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jonathon Brooks for 73 yds to the TCU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
21.7%
Jonathon Brooks run for 2 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6FG
7 plays · 37 yds · 2:1822% → 24%
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
22.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 34 yds to the TEX 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
23.1%
PENALTY TCU False Start (Coleman,Brandon) 5 yards from UT41 to UT46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
23.4%
JP Richardson run for 2 yds to the TEX 29Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 8
OPP 29
-9
23.4%
Josh Hoover sacked by T'Vondre Sweat for a loss of 9 yards to the TEX 38Similar
Q1 6:53
3RD & 17
OPP 38
0
22.6%
TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 4:35
4TH & 17
OPP 38
+56
23.7%
Griffin Kell 56 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7INT
5 plays · 14 yds · 2:1376% → 76%
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
24.4%
CJ Baxter run for 5 yds to the TEX 30Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
24.2%
CJ Baxter run for 2 yds to the TEX 32Similar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
24.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 7 yds to the TEX 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
24.3%
Quinn Ewers pass intercepted Millard Bradford fumbled, recovered by TEX Xavier Worthy No Huddle-Shotgun Ewers,Quinn pass intercepted by Bradford,Millard at TCU24 Bradford,Millard return 40 yards to the UT38 fumbled by Bradford,Millard at UT38 forced by Whittington,Jordan recovered by UT Worthy,Xavier at UT36, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8FG
6 plays · 52 yds · 2:3275% → 75%
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
24.6%
Jonathon Brooks run for 6 yds to the TEX 42Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+45
24.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 45 yds to the TCU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
23.7%
Jonathon Brooks run for 1 yd to the TCU 12Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 12
0
24.4%
Quinn Ewers run for no gain to the TCU 12Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 12
0
24.9%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Adonai MitchellSimilar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 9
OPP 12
+30
25.2%
Bert Auburn 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1525% → 25%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.2%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jaylon RobinsonSimilar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
25.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jared Wiley for 4 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+4
24.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 4 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q2 13:35
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
25.3%
Jordy Sandy punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TEX 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10FG
10 plays · 43 yds · 5:0375% → 77%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+19
24.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 19 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
24.7%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Ja'Tavion SandersSimilar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 15
OPP 43
+2
25.1%
CJ Baxter run for 2 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 13
OPP 41
+10
25.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Ewers,Quinn pass incomplete short right to Whittington,Jordan PENALTY TCU Holding (Newton,Josh) 10 yards from TCU41 to TCU31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
24.4%
Jonathon Brooks run for 7 yds to the TCU 24Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+6
24.3%
Jonathon Brooks run for 6 yds to the TCU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
24.2%
Jonathon Brooks run for 3 yds to the TCU 15Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+7
24.2%
pass complete to for 7 yds to the TCU 9Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 1
OPP 9
0
24.7%
Jonathon Brooks run for no gain to the TCU 9Similar
Q2 8:32
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+32
23.2%
Bert Auburn 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:3724% → 23%
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
23.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jared Wiley for 1 yd to the TCU 26Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
23.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 11 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
24.3%
Josh Hoover sacked by Byron Murphy II for a loss of 10 yards to the TCU 27Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 20
OWN 27
+3
23.7%
Emani Bailey run for 3 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 17
OWN 30
+8
23.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 8 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q2 5:55
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
22.8%
Jordy Sandy punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TEX 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12TD
15 plays · 85 yds · 4:5477% → 84%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
23.2%
Jonathon Brooks run for 1 yd to the TEX 16Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+3
23.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jonathon Brooks for 3 yds to the TEX 13Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 12
OWN 13
+19
23.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 19 yds to the TEX 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
22.5%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+2
22.8%
Jonathon Brooks run for 2 yds to the TEX 34Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+10
23.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Ewers,Quinn pass incomplete short left to Worthy,Xavier PENALTY TCU Holding (Newton,Josh) 10 yards from UT34 to UT44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
21.7%
CJ Baxter run for 4 yds to the TEX 48Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+5
21.7%
CJ Baxter run for 5 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+2
21.6%
CJ Baxter run for 2 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 15
50
+11
21.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 11 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+18
21.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 18 yds to the TCU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
21.2%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+8
21.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 8 yds to the TCU 13Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+7
21.5%
PENALTY TCU UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Clark,Bud) 7 yards from TCU13 to TCU06, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
16.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.8%
Josh Hoover pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14TD
6 plays · 43 yds · 0:3984% → 93%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
16.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 6 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+4
16.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jonathon Brooks for 4 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
16.2%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+11
16.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 11 yds to the TCU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
6.8%
Jonathon Brooks run for 22 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15END OF HALF
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:1212% → 11%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
11.5%
Emani Bailey run for 17 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
11.4%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+10
11.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 10 yds to the TEX 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 4:1011% → 10%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
11.3%
Emani Bailey run for 6 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
11.7%
Emani Bailey run for 4 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
11.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 9 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+3
12.5%
Emani Bailey run for 3 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
12.3%
Emani Bailey run for 7 yds to the TEX 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+3
12.7%
Emani Bailey run for 3 yds to the TEX 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
12.5%
Cam Cook run for 1 yd to the TEX 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 42
0
12.4%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to JP RichardsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 42
-5
12.3%
Josh Hoover sacked by Trill Carter for a loss of 5 yards to the TEX 47 Josh Hoover fumbled, recovered by TCU John Lanz , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 10:50
4TH & 14
OPP 47
0
9.5%
Jordy Sandy punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Xavier Worthy at the TEX 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:2192% → 94%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
7.6%
Jonathon Brooks run for 6 yds to the TEX 16Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+5
7.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 5 yds to the TEX 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
7.2%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Adonai MitchellSimilar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+9
7.2%
Jonathon Brooks run for 9 yds to the TEX 30Similar
Q3 10:50
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+3
6.6%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Johntay Cook II for 3 yds to the TEX 27Similar
Q3 8:29
4TH & 4
OWN 27
+11
6.1%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 48 yds , JP Richardson returns for 11 yds to the TCU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18DOWNS
12 plays · 62 yds · 5:399% → 7%
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
8.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 4 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+3
8.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JoJo Earle for 3 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+25
9.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 25 yds to the TEX 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
9.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jared Wiley for 2 yds to the TEX 30Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+5
9.9%
Emani Bailey run for 5 yds to the TEX 25Similar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+10
9.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Blake Nowell for 10 yds to the TEX 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
9.9%
Emani Bailey run for 6 yds to the TEX 9Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+5
9.9%
Emani Bailey run for 5 yds to the TEX 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
11.3%
Emani Bailey run for 1 yd to the TEX 5Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
10.5%
Emani Bailey run for 3 yds to the TEX 2Similar
Q3 8:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
11.1%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q3 2:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
6.5%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jaylon RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 36 yds · 1:4896% → 97%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+20
3.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 20 yds to the TEX 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
3.5%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Adonai MitchellSimilar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+12
3.6%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 12 yds to the TEX 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
3.4%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Jordan WhittingtonSimilar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+4
3.4%
Jonathon Brooks run for 4 yds to the TEX 38Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
3.3%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Xavier WorthySimilar
Q3 1:02
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
3.2%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 36 yds, fair catch by JP Richardson at the TCU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 2:004% → 18%
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
4.1%
PENALTY TCU False Start 5 yards from TCU26 to TCU21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:02
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+4
4.0%
Emani Bailey run for 4 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+42
4.0%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 42 yds to the TEX 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
4.3%
Emani Bailey run for 3 yds to the TEX 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+2
4.4%
Emani Bailey run for 2 yds to the TEX 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+11
4.3%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 11 yds to the TEX 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
17.7%
Emani Bailey run for 17 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 5:0990% → 94%
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
10.5%
CJ Baxter run for 9 yds to the TEX 34Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
10.2%
CJ Baxter run for 7 yds to the TEX 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
9.6%
CJ Baxter run for 3 yds to the TEX 44Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+7
9.5%
Jonathon Brooks run for 7 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
9.4%
Jonathon Brooks run for 4 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+7
9.4%
Jonathon Brooks run for 7 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
9.4%
CJ Baxter run for 1 yd to the TCU 37Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+6
9.4%
CJ Baxter run for 6 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q4 14:02
3RD & 3
OPP 31
0
9.3%
CJ Baxter run for no gain to the TCU 31Similar
Q4 8:53
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+49
5.7%
Bert Auburn 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:026% → 13%
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
6.2%
Emani Bailey run for no gain to the TCU 25Similar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
6.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 12 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+46
6.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jared Wiley for 46 yds to the TEX 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
8.0%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jared Wiley for 8 yds to the TEX 9Similar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+4
8.0%
Trent Battle run for 4 yds to the TEX 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
8.0%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Blake NowellSimilar
Q4 8:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
8.0%
Emani Bailey run for 2 yds to the TEX 3Similar
Q4 8:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
7.7%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to DJ RogersSimilar
Q4 5:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
13.0%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
10.5%
CJ Baxter run for 3 yds to the TEX 28Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
10.3%
CJ Baxter run for 2 yds to the TEX 30Similar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+1
10.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to CJ Baxter for 1 yd to the TEX 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24TD
3 plays · 36 yds · 0:3511% → 42%
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
11.3%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jared WileySimilar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+22
11.3%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 22 yds to the TEX 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
42.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 14 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 25END OF GAME
9 plays · 39 yds · 3:2278% → 94%
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
22.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 3 yds to the TEX 18Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 16
OWN 9
+4
23.1%
CJ Baxter run for 4 yds to the TEX 13Similar
Q4 2:06
3RD & 12
OWN 13
+35
20.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 35 yds to the TEX 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
15.4%
CJ Baxter run for 3 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+4
9.5%
CJ Baxter run for 4 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+1
6.3%
CJ Baxter run for 1 yd to the TCU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:28
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 14 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)
+31.1
TD · Q4 14:02
Emani Bailey run for 17 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)
+13.4
TD · Q2 0:12
Jonathon Brooks run for 22 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)
-9.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com