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BAY

Baylor 25 at Kansas State 59

KSU
2023 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
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Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playKSU scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:33 · Blake Shapen run for 6 yds to the KSU 30 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 135Pregame prior+11.5Home team on offense+34.4Score differential+28.7Blowout margin+14.9Garbage-time factor+9.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:34: Will Howard run for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK) — KSU win probability +2.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:07: Will Howard pass complete to Christian Moore for 2 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK) — KSU win probability +2.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:45: Blake Shapen pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — BAY win probability +2.7 pts (now 5%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:30: Drake Dabney 63 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — BAY win probability +3.8 pts (now 6%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:48: Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK) — KSU win probability +2.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8BAY made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 3:20BAY 4th & 7 at BAY 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:34KSU 4th & 1 at BAY 1, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    89.5%−1.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    87.0%−3.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:11BAY 4th & 13 at BAY 21, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.7%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:07BAY 4th & 4 at KSU 46, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    3.0%−0.7
    23% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:20BAY 4th & 13 at KSU 45, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:02KSU 4th & 18 at KSU 38, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:42BAY 4th & 4 at KSU 42, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    4.3%−0.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    4.3%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:31BAY 4th & 8 at KSU 34, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    4.0%
    47% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:03KSU 4th & 3 at KSU 41, up 22
    Close callPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:02BAY 4th & 10 at BAY 31, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:31KSU 4th & 5 at BAY 15, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    95.5%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:24KSU 4th & 8 at BAY 36, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    96.4%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    96.3%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:46BAY 4th & 9 at BAY 35, down 33
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:33KSU 4th & 5 at BAY 30, up 33
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:33BAY 4th & 5 at KSU 36, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:47BAY 4th & 5 at KSU 25, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:47KSU 4th & 7 at KSU 28, up 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:11BAY 4th & 17 at BAY 45, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:32KSU 4th & 5 at KSU 23, up 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:15BAY 4th & 4 at BAY 43, down 40
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8BAY made the numbers' call on 1 of 4
  1. Q1 10:26KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:02BAY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:54KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 4:10KSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 14:34KSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 13:07KSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:45BAY Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    3.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:30BAY Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    4.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 4:48KSU Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 2:55KSU Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 3:30KSU Touchdown, up 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 0:20BAY Touchdown, down 34 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KSUDrive 1TD
12 plays · 81 yds · 4:3089% → 89%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
89.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 7 yds to the KSU 26Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 3
OWN 26
0
89.0%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+8
89.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 8 yds to the KSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
89.0%
DJ Giddens run for 9 yds to the KSU 43Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+2
89.0%
DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the KSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
89.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 13 yds to the BAY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
89.0%
DJ Giddens run for 9 yds to the BAY 33Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 1
OPP 33
0
89.0%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+8
89.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 8 yds to the BAY 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
89.0%
DJ Giddens run for 3 yds to the BAY 22Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+4
89.0%
DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the BAY 18Similar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+18
88.6%
Will Howard pass complete to DJ Giddens for 18 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2TD
5 plays · 72 yds · 2:1912% → 14%
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
88.4%
Dominic Richardson run for 15 yds to the BAY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+19
88.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 19 yds to the KSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
88.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 6 yds to the KSU 32Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+19
88.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 19 yds to the KSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
86.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 13 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3TD
9 plays · 56 yds · 2:0087% → 88%
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
87.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 11 yds to the BAY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
87.3%
DJ Giddens run for 3 yds to the BAY 42Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
87.3%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+15
87.2%
HOWARD, Will pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BROWN, Jayce thrown to the BAY10. PENALTY BAY Pass Interference on JENKINS, Caden enforced 15 yards to the BAY27 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
87.4%
Treshaun Ward run for 1 yd to the BAY 26Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+6
87.4%
Will Howard pass complete to Jayce Brown for 6 yds to the BAY 20Similar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+6
87.2%
Treshaun Ward run for 6 yds to the BAY 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
87.4%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+14
88.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 14 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4FUMBLE RETURN TD
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:3912% → 11%
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
87.7%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the BAY 20Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+15
89.3%
Desmond Purnell 15 Yd Fumble Return (Chris Tennant Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5011% → 11%
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
89.2%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the BAY 28Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
89.2%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
89.3%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:20
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
89.5%
Palmer Williams punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 6TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 3:4690% → 93%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
89.8%
DJ Giddens run for 3 yds to the KSU 25Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+19
89.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 19 yds to the KSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
90.1%
DJ Giddens run for 12 yds to the BAY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
90.1%
Will Howard pass complete to RJ Garcia II for 2 yds to the BAY 42Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+35
90.1%
DJ Giddens run for 35 yds to the BAY 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
90.1%
DJ Giddens run for no gain to the BAY 7Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
90.3%
Will Howard run for 6 yds to the BAY 1Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
90.2%
Treshaun Ward run for no gain to the BAY 1Similar
Q2 14:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.7%
Will Howard run for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7DOWNS
4 plays · -22 yds · 1:197% → 7%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-8
93.0%
Blake Shapen sacked by Cody Stufflebean for a loss of 8 yards to the BAY 16Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 18
OWN 16
+5
93.1%
Blake Shapen run for 5 yds to the BAY 21Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 13
OWN 21
0
93.1%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:11
4TH & 13
OWN 21
-19
93.4%
Palmer Williams run for a loss of 19 yards to the BAY 2, Palmer Williams fumbeld, recoverted by KSU Matthew Maschmeier, returned 0 yards to the BAY 2.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 8TD
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 13:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Christian Moore for 2 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9PUNT
14 plays · 30 yds · 6:474% → 2%
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.5%
Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the BAY 27Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
96.4%
Dominic Richardson run for 5 yds to the BAY 32Similar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
96.2%
Kansas State Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (3 Yards) to the BAY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
96.4%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 7 yds to the BAY 42Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
96.1%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+6
96.2%
Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the BAY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
96.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jake Roberts for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 47Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+2
96.3%
Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the BAY 49Similar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+5
96.4%
Blake Shapen run for 5 yds to the KSU 46Similar
Q2 13:07
4TH & 4
OPP 46
+4
96.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 4 yds to the KSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
96.2%
Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the KSU 36Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 4
OPP 36
-6
96.0%
Jordan Nabors pass complete to Blake Shapen for a loss of 6 yards to the KSU 42Similar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 10
OPP 42
-3
96.3%
Dawson Pendergrass run for a loss of 3 yards to the KSU 45Similar
Q2 6:20
4TH & 13
OPP 45
0
98.3%
Palmer Williams punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:1898% → 98%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+13
97.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 13 yds to the KSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
97.8%
Treshaun Ward run for 5 yds to the KSU 28Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+5
97.8%
Treshaun Ward run for 5 yds to the KSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
97.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 13 yds to the KSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
97.9%
Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds to the KSU 48Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
97.8%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 8
OWN 48
-10
97.9%
Will Howard sacked by Matt Jones for a loss of 10 yards to the KSU 38Similar
Q2 3:02
4TH & 18
OWN 38
0
98.2%
punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11TD
3 plays · 16 yds · 1:172% → 5%
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+14
97.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 14 yds to the KSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
97.7%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the KSU 1Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12DOWNS
9 plays · 14 yds · 1:115% → 4%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
95.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Matthew Klopfenstein for 6 yds to the KSU 42Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
95.0%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:42
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
95.2%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:42
4TH & 4
OPP 42
+6
95.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 6 yds to the KSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
95.5%
Blake Shapen run for 2 yds to the KSU 34Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
95.2%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 8
OPP 34
0
95.5%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:31
4TH & 8
OPP 34
0
95.8%
Isaiah Hankins pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:2397% → 97%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
96.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 7 yds to the KSU 41Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 3
OWN 41
0
97.0%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
97.0%
DJ Giddens run for no gain to the KSU 41Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
96.8%
Jack Blumer punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
96.2%
[SG] Kneel down by BAY at BAY12 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:544% → 4%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+17
96.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 17 yds to the BAY 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
95.8%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
96.0%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
96.0%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:02
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
96.1%
Palmer Williams punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KSU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16FG
9 plays · 62 yds · 4:3197% → 99%
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
96.6%
DJ Giddens run for 12 yds to the KSU 35 Kansas State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Phillip Brooks) to the KSU 25Similar
Q3 14:02
1ST & 8
OWN 25
+1
96.6%
Keagan Johnson run for 1 yd to the KSU 26Similar
Q3 14:02
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+40
96.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 40 yds to the BAY 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
96.8%
DJ Giddens run for 5 yds to the BAY 29Similar
Q3 14:02
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+9
96.8%
DJ Giddens run for 9 yds to the BAY 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
96.8%
DJ Giddens run for 6 yds to the BAY 14Similar
Q3 14:02
2ND & 4
OPP 14
-2
96.8%
DJ Giddens run for a loss of 2 yards to the BAY 16Similar
Q3 14:02
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+1
96.7%
Will Howard pass complete to DJ Giddens for 1 yd to the BAY 15Similar
Q3 9:31
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+33
98.5%
Chris Tennant 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17TD
3 plays · 72 yds · 0:542% → 6%
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
98.2%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+9
98.2%
Dominic Richardson run for 9 yds to the BAY 37Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+63
94.4%
Drake Dabney 63 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 18TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 3:3697% → 99%
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+35
96.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 35 yds to the BAY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
96.7%
Kansas State Penalty, False Start (Keagan Johnson) to the BAY 43Similar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 15
OPP 43
0
96.7%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 15
OPP 43
+7
96.7%
Treshaun Ward run for 7 yds to the BAY 36Similar
Q3 8:24
3RD & 8
OPP 36
0
96.6%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:24
4TH & 8
OPP 36
+11
96.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 11 yds to the BAY 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
96.7%
Treshaun Ward run for 9 yds to the BAY 16Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+7
96.7%
Will Howard pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 7 yds to the BAY 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
96.7%
Treshaun Ward run for 5 yds to the BAY 4Similar
Q3 4:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.3%
Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19INT TD
4 plays · 14 yds · 1:461% → 0%
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
99.5%
Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the BAY 34Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+6
99.5%
Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the BAY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
99.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jonah Burton for 2 yds to the BAY 42Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-45
99.8%
Keenan Garber 45 Yd Interception Return (Chris Tennant Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20DOWNS
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:030% → 0%
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
99.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jake Roberts for 12 yds to the BAY 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
99.8%
Richard Reese run for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 33Similar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+4
99.8%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 4 yds to the BAY 37Similar
Q3 2:49
3RD & 7
OWN 37
-10
99.8%
PENDERGRASS, Dawson rush to the right for a gain of 4 yards to the BAY41 (SAVAGE, Kobe). PENALTY BAY Holding on SIERACKI, Kaden enforced 10 yards from the BAY37 to the BAY27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:49
3RD & 17
OWN 27
+8
99.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 8 yds to the BAY 35Similar
Q3 0:46
4TH & 9
OWN 35
0
99.8%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 21DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:13100% → 100%
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
99.8%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+1
99.8%
DJ Giddens run for 1 yd to the BAY 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+4
99.8%
DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the BAY 30Similar
Q4 14:33
4TH & 5
OPP 30
0
99.8%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22DOWNS
11 plays · 45 yds · 4:460% → 0%
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
99.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Armani Winfield for 18 yds to the BAY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
99.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 9 yds to the KSU 43Similar
Q4 14:33
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+2
99.8%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 2 yds to the KSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
99.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the KSU 38Similar
Q4 14:33
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
99.8%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:33
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+2
99.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the KSU 36Similar
Q4 14:33
4TH & 5
OPP 36
+6
99.8%
Blake Shapen run for 6 yds to the KSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
99.8%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 4 yds to the KSU 26Similar
Q4 14:33
2ND & 6
OPP 26
0
99.8%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:33
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+1
99.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the KSU 25Similar
Q4 9:47
4TH & 5
OPP 25
0
99.9%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Anthony Frias II run for 3 yds to the KSU 28Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:47
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Jack Blumer punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:360% → 0%
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-11
99.9%
Blake Shapen sacked by Colby McCalister for a loss of 11 yards to the BAY 41Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 21
OWN 41
+4
99.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 4 yds to the BAY 45Similar
Q4 8:47
3RD & 17
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:11
4TH & 17
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Palmer Williams punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KSU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:39100% → 100%
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
99.9%
Avery Johnson run for 4 yds to the KSU 22Similar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+5
99.9%
Anthony Frias II run for 5 yds to the KSU 27Similar
Q4 7:11
3RD & 1
OWN 27
-4
99.9%
Kansas State Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the KSU 23Similar
Q4 7:11
3RD & 5
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:32
4TH & 5
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Jack Blumer punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 26FUMBLE
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:460% → 0%
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
99.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the BAY 35Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:46
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+3
99.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 3 yds Josh Cameron fumbled, recovered by KSU Jevon Banks at the BAY38, returned 0 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 27TD
3 plays · 38 yds · 1:16100% → 100%
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
99.9%
La'James White run for 5 yds to the BAY 33Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+5
99.9%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 5 yds to the BAY 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
99.9%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 28 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 28TD
13 plays · 77 yds · 3:000% → 0%
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
100.0%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the BAY 27Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+10
100.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelsey Johnson for 10 yds to the BAY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
100.0%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
100.0%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+6
100.0%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 6 yds to the BAY 43Similar
Q4 1:15
4TH & 4
OWN 43
+21
100.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jake Roberts for 21 yds to the KSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
100.0%
SHAPEN, Blake pass deep to the left incomplete intended for BONNER, Cameron thrown to the KSU2. PENALTY KSU Holding on WRIGHT, Jordan enforced 10 yards from the KSU36 to the KSU26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
100.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Cameron Bonner for 7 yds to the KSU 19Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+13
100.0%
SHAPEN, Blake pass to the left incomplete intended for BONNER, Cameron thrown to the KSU5. PENALTY KSU Pass Interference on WRIGHT, Jordan enforced at the spot of the foul for 13 yards to the KSU6 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
100.0%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
100.0%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
100.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 6 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+9
100.0%
La'James White run for 9 yds to the KSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:30
Drake Dabney 63 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-3.8
TD · Q2 13:07
Will Howard pass complete to Christian Moore for 2 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)
+2.9
TD · Q2 1:45
Blake Shapen pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-2.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com