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CIN

Cincinnati 24 at Houston 14

HOU
2023 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:01 · Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 1 yd to the CIN 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 112Home team on offense−17.0Score differential−7.5Pregame prior+2.0Garbage-time factor−7.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:04: Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 7 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK) — HOU win probability +6.0 pts (now 62%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:04: Corey Kiner run for 1 yd for a TD (Carter Brown KICK) — CIN win probability +10.6 pts (now 54%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:00: Brady Lichtenberg pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 1 yd to the HOU 42 — CIN win probability +6.0 pts (now 78%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:47: Corey Kiner run for 5 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK) — CIN win probability +12.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:22: Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 2 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK) — HOU win probability +7.3 pts (now 11%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6CIN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 6:44HOU 4th & 13 at HOU 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−0.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:01CIN 4th & 8 at CIN 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:45CIN 4th & 4 at CIN 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:21HOU 4th & 2 at HOU 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:06HOU 4th & 7 at HOU 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−1.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:02CIN 4th & 1 at HOU 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    58.2%−1.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    52.7%−6.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:37HOU 4th & 3 at HOU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−1.5
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:25CIN 4th & 14 at HOU 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−3.2
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    50.2%−10.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:02HOU 4th & 15 at HOU 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−2.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:14CIN 4th & 1 at HOU 40, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    69.0%−4.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    69.4%−3.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:01HOU 4th & 2 at CIN 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.2%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:26CIN 4th & 7 at HOU 41, up 10
    Close callPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    93.8%−0.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:43CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:04HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:04CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:47CIN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:22HOU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 6:1740% → 43%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
60.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 15 yds to the CIN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
60.2%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the CIN 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+12
60.2%
Emory Jones run for 12 yds to the HOU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
60.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 12 yds to the HOU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
60.2%
Corey Kiner run for 9 yds to the HOU 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+2
60.2%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the HOU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
60.2%
Ryan Montgomery run for 9 yds to the HOU 14Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+3
60.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Barry Jackson Jr. for 3 yds to the HOU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
60.2%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the HOU 9Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+2
60.2%
Emory Jones run for 2 yds to the HOU 7Similar
Q1 8:43
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+7
57.0%
Emory Jones pass complete to Ryan Montgomery for 7 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5958% → 57%
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
57.7%
Donovan Smith run for 10 yds to the HOU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
57.8%
Donovan Smith sacked by Dontay Corleone for a loss of 6 yards to the HOU 29Similar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+3
57.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Tony Mathis Jr. for 3 yds to the HOU 32Similar
Q1 8:43
3RD & 13
OWN 32
0
57.5%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:44
4TH & 13
OWN 32
0
56.5%
Laine Wilkins punt for 43 yds, downed at the CIN 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:4343% → 44%
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.6%
Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the CIN 30Similar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
56.4%
Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 6 yds to the CIN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
56.3%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
56.5%
Corey Kiner run for 6 yds to the CIN 42Similar
Q1 6:44
3RD & 4
OWN 42
-4
56.2%
Emory Jones sacked by Anthony Holmes Jr. and Jamaree Caldwell for a loss of 4 yards to the CIN 38Similar
Q1 4:01
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
55.7%
Mason Fletcher punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4TD
12 plays · 83 yds · 4:5756% → 62%
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+16
55.8%
Parker Jenkins run for 16 yds to the HOU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
56.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Matt Byrnes for 5 yds to the HOU 38Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 5
OWN 38
-1
56.7%
Parker Jenkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 37Similar
Q1 4:01
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+8
55.8%
Donovan Smith run for 8 yds to the HOU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
56.7%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
56.4%
Donovan Smith run for 1 yd to the HOU 46Similar
Q1 4:01
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+35
56.0%
Donovan Smith run for 35 yds to the CIN 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
56.2%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 2 yds to the CIN 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
56.2%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+10
55.4%
Donovan Smith run for 10 yds to the CIN 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
56.2%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
62.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 7 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1941% → 40%
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
59.1%
Ryan Montgomery run for a loss of 2 yards to the CIN 23Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+8
59.2%
Brady Lichtenberg run for 8 yds to the CIN 31Similar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
59.1%
Brady Lichtenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:45
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
59.9%
Mason Fletcher punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:2460% → 61%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
60.3%
Parker Jenkins run for 12 yds to the HOU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
61.2%
Parker Jenkins run for 1 yd to the HOU 41Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+5
60.9%
Donovan Smith run for 5 yds to the HOU 46Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+2
61.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 2 yds to the HOU 48Similar
Q2 10:21
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
60.5%
Laine Wilkins punt for 45 yds, downed at the CIN 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7TD
6 plays · 93 yds · 2:1741% → 54%
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+62
59.2%
Corey Kiner run for 62 yds to the HOU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+20
56.3%
Brady Lichtenberg pass complete to Payten Singletary for 20 yds to the HOU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
56.1%
Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the HOU 6Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 5
OPP 6
0
56.1%
Brady Lichtenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+5
56.8%
Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the HOU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
46.3%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8FUMBLE
3 plays · -15 yds · 1:3449% → 48%
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
49.4%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 24Similar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+6
49.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 6 yds to the HOU 30Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
48.1%
Donovan Smith pass intercepted Deshawn Pace fumbled, recovered by HOU Joseph Manjack IV [NHSG] SMITH, Donovan pass short to the right intercepted by PACE, Deshawn at the HOU35 intended for MANJACK IV, Joseph. Pace return for 25 yards to the HOU10, PACE, Deshawn fumbled at HOU10 forced by MANJACK IV, Joseph, recovered by HOU MANJACK IV, Joseph at the HOU10, returned 0 yards, End of Play, clock 06:30.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2448% → 46%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
48.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 2 yds to the HOU 12Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+1
48.2%
Parker Jenkins run for 1 yd to the HOU 13Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 7
OWN 13
0
47.3%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:06
4TH & 7
OWN 13
0
46.1%
Laine Wilkins punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10DOWNS
10 plays · 37 yds · 4:0455% → 58%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
44.9%
Emory Jones run for 8 yds to the HOU 45Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 2
OPP 45
0
44.4%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+2
44.9%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the HOU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
44.6%
Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the HOU 39Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+14
44.4%
Myles Montgomery run for 14 yds to the HOU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
44.2%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+4
44.4%
Myles Montgomery run for 4 yds to the HOU 21Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+5
40.6%
Emory Jones pass complete to Payten Singletary for 5 yds to the HOU 16Similar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 1
OPP 16
0
42.0%
Corey Kiner run for no gain to the HOU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:2546% → 44%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
46.2%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
44.1%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+7
44.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 7 yds to the HOU 23Similar
Q2 0:37
4TH & 3
OWN 23
0
43.9%
Laine Wilkins punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:3759% → 60%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
40.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Ryan Montgomery for 6 yds to the CIN 45Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 45
-5
39.6%
Emory Jones sacked by Jamaree Caldwell for a loss of 5 yards to the CIN 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
44.4%
Donovan Smith pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14FG
13 plays · 37 yds · 6:2860% → 66%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
40.0%
Corey Kiner run for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 48Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+10
40.6%
Emory Jones pass complete to Donovan Ollie for 10 yds to the HOU 42Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+13
39.9%
Corey Kiner run for 13 yds to the HOU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
39.3%
Emory Jones run for 1 yd to the HOU 28Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+9
39.4%
Emory Jones run for 9 yds to the HOU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-7
39.3%
Emory Jones sacked by Anthony Holmes Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the HOU 26Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 17
OPP 26
+5
39.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 5 yds to the HOU 21Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 12
OPP 21
+15
40.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 15 yds to the HOU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
39.3%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the HOU 5Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
34.0%
Corey Kiner run for a loss of 4 yards to the HOU 9Similar
Q3 9:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
35.1%
Emory Jones sacked by Nelson Ceaser for a loss of 5 yards to the HOU 14Similar
Q3 8:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+31
34.2%
Carter Brown 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:1833% → 28%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
32.7%
Parker Jenkins run for 20 yds to the HOU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-15
34.7%
SMITH, Donovan pass to the right complete for 6 yards to CARNES, Dalton caught at the HOU46 and advanced to the HOU46 (THREATS, Bryon;GRZESIAK, Daniel). PENALTY HOU Pass Interference on MANJACK IV, Joseph enforced 15 yards to the HOU25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 25
OWN 25
0
32.5%
Parker Jenkins run for no gain to the HOU 25Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 25
OWN 25
0
32.3%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 25
OWN 25
+10
31.4%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Parker Jenkins for 10 yds to the HOU 35Similar
Q3 6:02
4TH & 15
OWN 35
0
28.2%
Laine Wilkins punt for 61 yds, downed at the CIN 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16DOWNS
14 plays · 53 yds · 6:4869% → 75%
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+6
31.3%
Brady Lichtenberg run for 6 yds to the CIN 10Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 4
OWN 10
+4
31.4%
Ryan Montgomery run for 4 yds to the CIN 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
31.0%
Ryan Montgomery run for no gain to the CIN 14Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+6
31.4%
Myles Montgomery run for 6 yds to the CIN 20Similar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+5
31.7%
Houston Penalty, Offsides (Jalen Garner) to the CIN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
30.4%
Brady Lichtenberg pass complete to Payten Singletary for 6 yds to the CIN 31Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
29.3%
Brady Lichtenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
30.1%
Brady Lichtenberg run for 8 yds to the CIN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
28.4%
Brady Lichtenberg pass complete to Michael McCalmont for 6 yds to the CIN 45Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+6
28.5%
Myles Montgomery run for 6 yds to the HOU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
28.1%
Myles Montgomery run for 6 yds to the HOU 43Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+1
22.1%
Brady Lichtenberg pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 1 yd to the HOU 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+2
23.0%
Ryan Montgomery run for 2 yds to the HOU 40Similar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 1
OPP 40
-3
25.2%
Brady Lichtenberg run for a loss of 3 yards to the HOU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:1326% → 23%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
25.7%
Parker Jenkins run for 1 yd to the HOU 44Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+1
25.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 1 yd to the HOU 45Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+6
24.4%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 6 yds to the CIN 49Similar
Q4 12:01
4TH & 2
OPP 49
+1
23.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 1 yd to the CIN 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18TD
7 plays · 52 yds · 2:2883% → 96%
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
17.3%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 8
50
-2
17.3%
Emory Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the CIN 48Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+14
18.0%
Emory Jones pass complete to Aaron Turner for 14 yds to the HOU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+19
17.0%
Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 19 yds to the HOU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+14
16.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 14 yds to the HOU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
4.0%
Corey Kiner run for 5 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:256% → 11%
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
6.2%
Donovan Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the HOU 23Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+9
6.1%
Donovan Smith run for 9 yds to the HOU 32Similar
Q4 8:47
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
6.4%
Donovan Smith run for 9 yds to the HOU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
6.7%
Donovan Smith run for 1 yd to the HOU 42Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+18
6.7%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Mike O'Laughlin for 18 yds to the CIN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
7.2%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
7.1%
Donovan Smith run for 5 yds to the CIN 35Similar
Q4 8:47
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+8
7.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 8 yds to the CIN 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
8.0%
Donovan Smith run for 3 yds to the CIN 24Similar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 7
OPP 24
-5
4.0%
Houston Penalty, False Start (Reuben Unije) to the CIN 29Similar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 12
OPP 29
+11
3.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 11 yds to the CIN 18Similar
Q4 4:22
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+13
3.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Tony Mathis Jr. for 13 yds to the CIN 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
3.3%
SMITH, Donovan pass short to the right incomplete intended for MANJACK IV, Joseph thrown to the CIN0. PENALTY CIN Pass Interference on THREATS, Bryon enforced at the spot of the foul for 3 yards to the CIN2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
10.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 2 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:5594% → 96%
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
6.1%
Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the HOU 39Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+2
5.0%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the HOU 37Similar
Q4 2:26
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+1
5.0%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the HOU 36Similar
Q4 2:26
4TH & 2
OPP 36
-5
5.5%
Cincinnati Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the HOU 41Similar
Q4 1:26
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
4.0%
Mason Fletcher punt for 36 yds, downed at the HOU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
2.9%
Donovan Smith pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 1:1296% → 97%
Q4 1:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
3.9%
Corey Kiner run for no gain to the HOU 1Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
3.4%
Kneel down by JONES, Emory at HOU3 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:47
Corey Kiner run for 5 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)
-12.2
TD · Q2 8:04
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)
-10.6
TD · Q4 3:22
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 2 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)
+7.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com