2023 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023 · Milan Puskar Stadium
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Win probability · WVU
modelWVU aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playWVU scoreBYU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:09 · Garrett Greene pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:17: CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK) — WVU win probability +2.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 10:47: Michael Hayes 46 yd FG GOOD — WVU win probability +3.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:18: Garrett Greene pass complete to Preston Fox for 12 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK) — WVU win probability +5.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Michael Hayes 22 yd FG GOOD — WVU win probability +3.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 10:35: Michael Hayes 23 yd FG GOOD — WVU win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WVU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7BYU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 15:00WVU 4th & 1 at BYU 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call80.5%70% to convertField goal80.3%−0.240% to makePunt80.3%−0.2average punt
- Q1 8:07BYU 4th & 2 at WVU 46, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call19.9%57% to convertField goal19.6%−0.323% to makePunt19.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 3:47BYU 4th & 4 at BYU 47, down 14Close callPunted · 17.5% before the snapGo for it17.8%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.6%−0.2average punt
- Q1 2:04WVU 4th & 3 at WVU 44, up 14Close callPunted · 83.7% before the snapGo for it84.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.7%−0.2average punt
- Q2 13:50BYU 4th & 2 at WVU 35, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call17.1%57% to convertField goal16.1%−0.945% to makePunt15.7%−1.3average punt
- Q2 10:47WVU 4th & 17 at BYU 28, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.9% before the snapGo for it83.4%−1.314% to convertField goalTheir call84.8%60% to makePunt81.4%−3.4average punt
- Q2 7:53BYU 4th & 7 at BYU 39, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snapGo for it12.2%−0.437% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.6%average punt
- Q3 13:19BYU 4th & 12 at BYU 8, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.2%−0.821% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.0%average punt
- Q3 10:35WVU 4th & 5 at BYU 5, up 27Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snapGo for it98.8%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call98.8%92% to makePunt96.2%−2.6average punt
- Q3 8:34BYU 4th & 8 at WVU 44, down 30Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%−<0.134% to convertField goal0.6%−0.127% to makePunt0.7%average punt
- Q3 7:09WVU 4th & 1 at BYU 47, up 30Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.5%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.3%−0.2average punt
- Q3 5:23BYU 4th & 16 at BYU 41, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q4 11:44BYU 4th & 21 at WVU 33, down 37Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.19% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%49% to makePunt0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 9:21WVU 4th & 4 at BYU 39, up 37Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%48% to convertField goal99.8%−0.136% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 6:24WVU 4th & 7 at BYU 30, up 30Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−<0.137% to convertField goal99.9%56% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WVU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4BYU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 9:59WVU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.1%97% to makeGo for two80.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:17WVU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.3%97% to makeGo for two82.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:18WVU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.5%97% to makeGo for two94.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:09WVU Touchdown, up 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:24BYU Touchdown, down 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWVUDrive 1TD14 plays · 75 yds · 5:0182% → 82%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
82.0%
GREENE, Garrett pass deep to the right incomplete intended for FOX, Preston thrown to the BYU41. PENALTY BYU Pass Interference on ROBINSON, Jakob enforced 15 yards to the WVU43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+12
82.0%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Preston Fox for 12 yds to the BYU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
82.0%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Preston Fox for 9 yds to the BYU 12Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+10
82.0%
GREENE, Garrett pass to the right incomplete intended for RAY, Traylon thrown to the BYU0. PENALTY BYU Pass Interference on HECKARD, Eddie enforced 10 yards to the BYU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2DOWNS8 plays · 28 yds · 1:4718% → 19%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 15
OWN 19
+15
81.7%
RETZLAFF, Jake pass deep to the left incomplete intended for MARION, Keelan thrown to the WVU47. PENALTY WVU Pass Interference on RUFFIN, Malachi enforced 15 yards to the BYU34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
81.6%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Keelan Marion for 1 yd to the BYU 35Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+11
81.6%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Keelan Marion for 11 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 3TD5 plays · 52 yds · 1:5082% → 85%
Q1 8:07
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+7
82.2%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Traylon Ray for 7 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+30
82.2%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Traylon Ray for 30 yds to the BYU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
82.2%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Traylon Ray for 5 yds to the BYU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 31 yds · 2:2617% → 16%
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+10
83.5%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Keelan Marion for 10 yds to the BYU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
83.5%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Kody Epps for 15 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:47
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
83.6%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Preston Fox at the WVU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 30 yds · 1:4385% → 85%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6DOWNS12 plays · 46 yds · 3:1416% → 14%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
84.0%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Chase Roberts for 15 yds to the BYU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+6
84.0%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Kody Epps for 6 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+11
84.0%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Keelan Marion for 11 yds to the WVU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 48
+13
84.3%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Chase Roberts for 13 yds to the WVU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 7FG9 plays · 37 yds · 3:0386% → 89%
Q2 13:50
2ND & 4
OPP 15
-10
86.1%
JOHNSON JR., Justin rush to the right for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU16 (HECKARD, Eddie). PENALTY WVU Holding on GALLAGHER, Rodney enforced 10 yards from the BYU15 to the BYU25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 14
OPP 25
-5
86.0%
West Virginia Penalty, False Start (CJ Donaldson Jr.) to the BYU 30Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 24
OPP 35
+7
85.9%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Devin Carter for 7 yds to the BYU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 14 yds · 2:5412% → 12%
Q2 10:47
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+12
87.9%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Aidan Robbins for 12 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 4
OWN 42
-3
87.5%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Parker Kingston for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 39Similar
Q2 7:53
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
88.3%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Preston Fox at the WVU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 9TD11 plays · 93 yds · 5:3589% → 95%
Q2 7:53
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+15
89.6%
BYU Penalty, Personal Foul (Jakob Robinson) to the BYU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+4
89.6%
BYU Penalty, Personal Foul (Max Tooley) to the BYU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+12
94.9%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Preston Fox for 12 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10FUMBLE6 plays · 49 yds · 1:076% → 6%
Q2 2:12
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+13
93.8%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Chase Roberts for 13 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
93.7%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Parker Kingston for 9 yds to the WVU 45Similar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+23
93.6%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Parker Kingston for 23 yds Parker Kingston fumbled, recovered by WVU Aubrey Burks [NHSG] RETZLAFF, Jake pass deep up the middle complete for 23 yards to KINGSTON, Parker caught at the WVU20, KINGSTON, Parker fumbled at WVU20 forced by BURKS, Aubrey, recovered by WVU BURKS, Aubrey at the WVU18, returned 0 yards to the WVU18, End of Play, clock 01:05.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 11FG14 plays · 78 yds · 1:0595% → 98%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-10
95.2%
GREENE, Garrett pass to the left complete for 9 yards to TAYLOR, Kole caught at the WVU38 and advanced to the WVU38, out of bounds. PENALTY WVU Holding on MILUM, Wyatt enforced 10 yards from the WVU29 to the WVU19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 14
OWN 25
+38
95.3%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Devin Carter for 38 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+17
95.4%
Garrett Greene pass complete to EJ Horton for 17 yds to the BYU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
95.4%
GREENE, Garrett pass deep to the left incomplete intended for HORTON, EJ thrown to the BYU0. PENALTY BYU Offsides on CRAVENS, Jackson enforced 5 yards from the BYU20 to the BYU15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+11
95.5%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Devin Carter for 11 yds to the BYU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 1:313% → 3%
WVUDrive 13FG8 plays · 53 yds · 2:4499% → 99%
Q3 13:19
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+15
98.8%
BYU Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Max Tooley) to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14DOWNS6 plays · 13 yds · 1:551% → 1%
WVUDrive 15DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 1:25100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 1:461% → 0%
WVUDrive 17TD8 plays · 85 yds · 4:14100% → 100%
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
99.6%
GREENE, Garrett pass deep to the left complete for 28 yards to GALLAGHER, Rodney caught at the WVU47 and advanced to the BYU45 (HECKARD, Eddie). PENALTY WVU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on MILUM, Wyatt enforced 5 yards from the WVU27 to the WVU22 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+14
99.6%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Rodney Gallagher for 14 yds to the WVU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+43
99.8%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Kole Taylor for 43 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18MISSED FG14 plays · 42 yds · 4:250% → 0%
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.8%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Keelan Marion for 3 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
99.8%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Aidan Robbins for 8 yds to the WVU 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+17
99.8%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Keelan Marion for 17 yds to the WVU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+5
99.8%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Ethan Erickson for 5 yds to the WVU 17Similar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 10
OPP 22
-11
99.9%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Deion Smith for a loss of 11 yards to the WVU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 19DOWNS5 plays · 29 yds · 2:23100% → 100%
BYUDrive 20TD9 plays · 62 yds · 2:570% → 0%
Q4 9:21
3RD & 8
50
+12
99.9%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Chase Roberts for 12 yds to the WVU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
99.9%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Aidan Robbins for 11 yds to the WVU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+17
100.0%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Parker Kingston for 17 yds to the WVU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 21END OF GAME10 plays · 49 yds · 6:24100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:18
Garrett Greene pass complete to Preston Fox for 12 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK)
+5.2
FG · Q2 0:00
Michael Hayes 22 yd FG GOOD
+3.3
FG · Q2 10:47
Michael Hayes 46 yd FG GOOD
+3