Try the model
KSU

Kansas State 30 at Texas 33

TEX
2023 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreKSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGFGFGEnd of GameTD+10.2TEX 81.2%CJ Baxter run for 54 yds for a TD(Bert Auburn KICK)AWAY 0 - HOME 17 · Q2 11:34
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:34 · CJ Baxter run for 54 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 47Home team on offense+9.6Pregame prior+11.1Score differential+5.3Garbage-time factor+3.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0Time remaining+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:21: Jonathon Brooks run for 5 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK) — TEX win probability +12.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:33: Will Howard pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 12 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK) — KSU win probability +21.6 pts (now 35%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:37: Will Howard pass complete to Jayce Brown for 32 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — KSU win probability +33.0 pts (now 51%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 0:01: Chris Tennant 45 yd FG GOOD — KSU win probability +33.5 pts (now 51%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  5. FG · OT 0:00: Bert Auburn 42 yd FG GOOD — TEX win probability +16.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 10 of 11KSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 12:17TEX 4th & 15 at KSU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    61.3%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:49KSU 4th & 13 at KSU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:04KSU 4th & 12 at KSU 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:06TEX 4th & 9 at KSU 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.6%
    84% to make
    Punt
    62.8%−2.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:11KSU 4th & 12 at KSU 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−1.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:34TEX 4th & 1 at TEX 46, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    66.6%−1.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:00KSU 4th & 2 at KSU 33, down 17
    Close callPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:01KSU 4th & 12 at KSU 26, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%−2.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:39TEX 4th & 2 at KSU 12, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    82.3%−1.3
    86% to make
    Punt
    74.8%−8.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:34KSU 4th & 11 at KSU 18, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−2.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:35TEX 4th & 10 at KSU 47, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:25TEX 4th & 6 at TEX 29, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−1.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:14TEX 4th & 14 at TEX 42, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%−2.7
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:20KSU 4th & 2 at KSU 33, down 17
    Close callPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:13TEX 4th & 3 at KSU 31, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.7%−0.9
    54% to make
    Punt
    90.8%−1.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:30TEX 4th & 4 at KSU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    58.2%−3.7
    40% to make
    Punt
    57.6%−4.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:03TEX 4th & 5 at KSU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%−1.3
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.3%
    81% to make
    Punt
    36.2%−22.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:45KSU 4th & 2 at TEX 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−11.1
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    11.4%−26.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:18TEX 4th & 5 at TEX 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%−4.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:18KSU 4th & 6 at TEX 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    18.0%−0.8
    25% to make
    Punt
    12.0%−6.8
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:01KSU 4th & 10 at TEX 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−14.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    7.9%−21.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 3 of 3KSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 8:36TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:34TEX Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:54KSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:21TEX Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:00KSU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:33KSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:37KSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    46.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    45.1%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TEXDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:4366% → 66%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
66.1%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 24 yds to the TEX 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
66.1%
Jonathon Brooks run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
50
+12
66.1%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 12 yds to the KSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
66.1%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+5
66.1%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 5 yds to the KSU 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 33
-5
66.1%
Texas Penalty, False Start (Ja'Tavion Sanders) to the KSU 38Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
66.1%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 38
-5
66.1%
Texas Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the KSU 43Similar
Q1 12:17
4TH & 15
OPP 43
0
65.8%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 36 yds, downed at the KSU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:2834% → 34%
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
65.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 3 yds to the KSU 10Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+8
65.9%
DJ Giddens run for 8 yds to the KSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
65.9%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+3
65.9%
DJ Giddens run for 3 yds to the KSU 21Similar
Q1 12:17
3RD & 7
OWN 21
-6
66.0%
Will Howard sacked by Barryn Sorrell for a loss of 6 yards to the KSU 15Similar
Q1 9:49
4TH & 13
OWN 15
0
66.0%
Jack Blumer punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3TD
3 plays · 47 yds · 1:1366% → 68%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
66.3%
Jonathon Brooks run for 2 yds to the KSU 45Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+8
66.3%
Jonathon Brooks run for 8 yds to the KSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
68.3%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 37 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 3:3232% → 31%
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
67.6%
Treshaun Ward run for 3 yds to the KSU 28Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
67.5%
Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the KSU 32Similar
Q1 8:36
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
67.6%
Treshaun Ward run for 5 yds to the KSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
67.4%
Will Howard sacked by Ethan Burke for a loss of 2 yards to the KSU 35Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+5
67.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 5 yds to the KSU 40Similar
Q1 8:36
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
67.5%
Will Howard run for no gain to the KSU 40Similar
Q1 5:14
4TH & 7
OWN 40
-5
68.7%
BLUMER, Jack punt 42 yards to the TEX18, fair catch by WORTHY, Xavier, clock 05:14. PENALTY Before the snap, KSU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the KSU40 to the KSU35. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:04
4TH & 12
OWN 35
0
68.9%
Jack Blumer punt for 58 yds, downed at the TEX 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5FG
10 plays · 79 yds · 3:5869% → 70%
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
68.5%
Jonathon Brooks run for 3 yds to the TEX 10Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+8
68.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 8 yds to the TEX 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+47
68.6%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 47 yds to the KSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
69.5%
CJ Baxter run for 1 yd to the KSU 34Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+19
69.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 19 yds to the KSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
69.5%
CJ Baxter run for 6 yds to the KSU 9Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 4
OPP 9
-5
69.5%
Texas Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the KSU 14Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
69.5%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:04
3RD & 9
OPP 14
0
69.2%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:06
4TH & 9
OPP 14
+32
70.0%
Bert Auburn 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:5530% → 29%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
70.0%
DJ Giddens run for 1 yd to the KSU 26Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
70.3%
DJ Giddens run for no gain to the KSU 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-5
70.7%
Kansas State Penalty, False Start (KT Leveston) to the KSU 21Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+2
70.9%
DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the KSU 23Similar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
71.5%
Jack Blumer punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Xavier Worthy at the TEX 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 2:3771% → 81%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
71.0%
Keilan Robinson run for 8 yds to the TEX 45Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 2
OWN 45
-5
71.6%
Texas Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TEX 40Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-5
71.5%
Texas Penalty, Illegal Snap on MAJORS, Jake enforced (Jake Majors) to the TEX 35Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+7
70.6%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 7 yds to the TEX 42Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+4
71.0%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 4 yds to the TEX 46Similar
Q2 11:34
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+54
81.2%
CJ Baxter run for 54 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3420% → 19%
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
79.7%
Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds to the KSU 27Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
79.7%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+6
79.9%
Will Howard run for 6 yds to the KSU 33Similar
Q2 10:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
80.6%
Jack Blumer punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Xavier Worthy at the TEX 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9INT
5 plays · 35 yds · 2:2783% → 84%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
82.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 5 yds to the TEX 34Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+7
82.7%
Jonathon Brooks run for 7 yds to the TEX 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
83.1%
Xavier Worthy run for 16 yds to the KSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
83.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Johntay Cook II for 7 yds to the KSU 36Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 3
OPP 36
0
83.7%
Maalik Murphy pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:3219% → 17%
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
81.2%
Avery Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 27Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 11
OWN 27
-1
81.5%
Treshaun Ward run for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 26Similar
Q2 7:33
3RD & 12
OWN 26
0
81.8%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:01
4TH & 12
OWN 26
0
82.7%
Jack Blumer punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11DOWNS
5 plays · 22 yds · 2:2285% → 85%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+21
84.8%
Jonathon Brooks run for 21 yds to the KSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
84.8%
Jonathon Brooks run for 4 yds to the KSU 16Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+2
84.8%
Jonathon Brooks run for 2 yds to the KSU 14Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+2
84.4%
Jonathon Brooks run for 2 yds to the KSU 12Similar
Q2 3:39
4TH & 2
OPP 12
-7
85.2%
run for a loss of 7 yards to the KSU 19 Savion Red fumbled, recovered by TEX Savion Red [SG] Direct snap to RED, Savion rush up the middle for a loss of 7 yards, RED, Savion fumbled at KSU19 , recovered by TEX RED, Savion at the KSU19, returned 0 yards to the KSU19, End of Play; TEX turnover on downs, clock 03:39.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:0517% → 15%
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
83.5%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-1
83.6%
DJ Giddens run for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 18Similar
Q2 3:39
3RD & 11
OWN 18
0
83.8%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:34
4TH & 11
OWN 18
0
84.8%
Jack Blumer punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Xavier Worthy at the KSU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5987% → 86%
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
86.6%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
86.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Whittington for no gain to the KSU 47Similar
Q2 2:34
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
85.9%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:35
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
86.1%
punt blocked by Shane Porter blocked by Shane PorterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 14TD
5 plays · 42 yds · 0:4117% → 26%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
82.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 3 yds to the TEX 39Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+28
82.4%
Will Howard pass complete to Jayce Brown for 28 yds to the TEX 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
82.1%
Will Howard run for 5 yds to the TEX 6Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+6
73.7%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 6 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:2978% → 77%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.2%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
78.0%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+4
77.6%
CJ Baxter run for 4 yds to the TEX 29Similar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
76.8%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16END OF HALF
6 plays · 33 yds · 0:2522% → 24%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
78.1%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 22 yds to the KSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
76.5%
Will Howard pass complete to Jayce Brown for 11 yds to the TEX 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
75.0%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
76.1%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 17INT
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:4124% → 25%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
76.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 9 yds to the KSU 34Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
75.0%
Will Howard pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:0578% → 78%
Q3 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
77.5%
CJ Baxter run for 15 yds to the TEX 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
77.7%
CJ Baxter run for 6 yds to the TEX 41Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+5
78.8%
CJ Baxter run for 5 yds to the TEX 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
78.8%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-2
78.5%
Jonathon Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the TEX 44Similar
Q3 14:19
3RD & 12
OWN 44
0
77.1%
MURPHY, Maalik pass to the left complete for 39 yards to BROOKS, Jonathon caught at the TEX39 and advanced to the KSU17, out of bounds. PENALTY TEX Illegal Shift on BROOKS, Jonathon declined TEX Holding on WHITTINGTON, Jordan enforced 10 yards from the TEX44 to the TEX34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:19
3RD & 22
OWN 34
+8
76.4%
Jaydon Blue run for 8 yds to the TEX 42Similar
Q3 11:14
4TH & 14
OWN 42
0
77.6%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 51 yds, downed at the KSU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · -2 yds · 1:4821% → 21%
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
78.9%
Treshaun Ward run for 7 yds to the KSU 14Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 3
OWN 14
+5
78.7%
Treshaun Ward run for 5 yds to the KSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-14
79.5%
Will Howard sacked for a loss of 14 yards to the KSU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20TD
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q3 9:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
91.7%
Jonathon Brooks run for 5 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0111% → 10%
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
88.8%
Keagan Johnson run for 2 yds to the KSU 27Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
88.8%
DJ Giddens run for 5 yds to the KSU 32Similar
Q3 9:21
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
88.4%
Will Howard pass complete to DJ Giddens for 1 yd to the KSU 33Similar
Q3 7:20
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
90.3%
Jack Blumer punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Xavier Worthy at the TEX 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22FG
7 plays · 41 yds · 3:0792% → 96%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
92.1%
Jaydon Blue run for 3 yds to the TEX 31Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+4
92.1%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 4 yds to the TEX 35Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+27
92.0%
Jonathon Brooks run for 27 yds to the KSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
92.5%
Jonathon Brooks run for no gain to the KSU 38Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
92.5%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+7
92.3%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 7 yds to the KSU 31Similar
Q3 4:13
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+49
95.9%
Bert Auburn 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 23TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:134% → 14%
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
96.1%
Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the KSU 29Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
96.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 6 yds to the KSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
96.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 9 yds to the KSU 44Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 1
OWN 44
-5
95.8%
HOWARD, Will pass deep up the middle complete for 22 yards to LOYD, Xavier caught at the TEX34 and advanced to the TEX34 (WILLIAMS JR., Derek). PENALTY Before the snap, KSU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the KSU44 to the KSU39. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+1
96.0%
Treshaun Ward run for 1 yd to the KSU 40Similar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-5
96.0%
Kansas State Penalty, False Start (Hadley Panzer) to the KSU 35Similar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+15
96.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
50
+20
95.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 20 yds to the TEX 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
95.4%
Kansas State Penalty, False Start (Hadley Panzer) to the TEX 35Similar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+9
95.5%
Will Howard pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 9 yds to the TEX 26Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+26
86.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 26 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 24FUMBLE
4 plays · -13 yds · 1:1292% → 92%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.0%
Jonathon Brooks run for 1 yd to the TEX 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-5
91.9%
Texas Penalty, False Start (Cameron Williams) to the TEX 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
91.8%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:48
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
92.2%
Maalik Murphy pass intercepted Jacob Parrish fumbled, recovered by KSU Colby McCalister [NHSG] MURPHY, Maalik pass short to the left intercepted by PARRISH, Jacob at the TEX23 intended for MITCHELL, Adonai. Parrish return for 11 yards to the TEX12, PARRISH, Jacob fumbled at TEX10 forced by BANKS JR., Kelvin, recovered by KSU MCCALISTER, Colby at the TEX12, returned 0 yards, End of Play, clock 13:48.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 25TD
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:1513% → 35%
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
86.7%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
65.1%
Will Howard pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 12 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 26FUMBLE
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:4979% → 82%
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
79.0%
Jonathon Brooks run for 9 yds to the TEX 34Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-2
81.8%
Jonathon Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the TEX 32 Jonathon Brooks fumbled, recovered by KSU Will Lee III [NHSG] BROOKS, Jonathon rush up the middle for a loss of 2 yards, BROOKS, Jonathon fumbled at TEX35 forced by MOTT, Brendan, recovered by KSU LEE III, Will at the TEX32, returned 0 yards to the TEX32, End of Play, clock 12:44.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 27TD
1 play · 32 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
48.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Jayce Brown for 32 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 28FG
15 plays · 69 yds · 6:2759% → 75%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
59.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 12 yds to the TEX 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
60.0%
CJ Baxter run for no gain to the TEX 27Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+18
59.3%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 18 yds to the TEX 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
63.5%
CJ Baxter run for 1 yd to the TEX 46Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+6
63.2%
Jonathon Brooks run for 6 yds to the KSU 48Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+5
63.8%
Jonathon Brooks run for 5 yds to the KSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
64.8%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-10
64.5%
BROOKS, Jonathon rush to the left for a gain of 8 yards to the KSU35 (SAVAGE, Kobe). PENALTY TEX Holding on CAMPBELL, DJ enforced 10 yards from the KSU43 to the TEX47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 20
OWN 47
+14
61.1%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 14 yds to the KSU 39Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+2
64.1%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 2 yds to the KSU 37Similar
Q4 12:30
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+16
61.7%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 16 yds to the KSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
66.1%
Jonathon Brooks run for 5 yds to the KSU 16Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 5
OPP 16
0
66.1%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 5
OPP 16
0
64.3%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:03
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+34
75.1%
Bert Auburn 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 29MISSED FG
10 plays · 66 yds · 4:1831% → 32%
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
69.1%
DJ Giddens run for 3 yds to the KSU 28Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
68.5%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:03
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
70.6%
HOWARD, Will scrambles to the right for a loss of 10 yards to the KSU34 (HILL JR., Anthony), out of bounds. PENALTY KSU Holding on PANZER, Hadley enforced 0 yards TEX Unnecessary Roughness on WATTS, Ryan enforced 0 yards from the KSU9 to the KSU18, from the the spot of the ball when the foul occurred, runner is credited with -10 yards on the play [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+16
67.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 16 yds to the KSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
63.4%
Will Howard pass complete to DJ Giddens for 17 yds to the TEX 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+17
61.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 17 yds to the TEX 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
60.1%
DJ Giddens run for 1 yd to the TEX 16Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+8
60.1%
Will Howard pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 8 yds to the TEX 8Similar
Q4 6:03
3RD & 1
OPP 8
-1
62.2%
Will Howard run for a loss of 1 yard to the TEX 9Similar
Q4 1:45
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+27
68.4%
Chris Tennant 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 30PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:2188% → 89%
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
88.0%
Jonathon Brooks run for no gain to the TEX 20Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
88.0%
Jonathon Brooks run for 7 yds to the TEX 27Similar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-2
89.0%
CJ Baxter run for a loss of 2 yards to the TEX 25Similar
Q4 1:18
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
89.0%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 35 yds, downed at the KSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 31FG
11 plays · 33 yds · 1:1716% → 51%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
84.0%
Will Howard pass complete to DJ Giddens for 5 yds to the KSU 45Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+6
82.4%
Will Howard pass complete to Jayce Brown for 6 yds to the TEX 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
81.5%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
82.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 4 yds to the TEX 45Similar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
81.5%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:18
4TH & 6
OPP 45
+18
84.4%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 18 yds to the TEX 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
77.9%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
78.5%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:06
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
82.6%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:01
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+45
49.1%
Chris Tennant 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 32FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0066% → 80%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
65.6%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
65.4%
Jonathon Brooks run for 1 yd to the KSU 24Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
63.1%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+42
79.8%
Bert Auburn 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 33DOWNS
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0029% → 25%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+19
71.4%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 19 yds to the TEX 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
71.4%
Will Howard run for 2 yds to the TEX 4Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
71.4%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
75.2%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:01
Chris Tennant 45 yd FG GOOD
-33.5
TD · Q4 12:37
Will Howard pass complete to Jayce Brown for 32 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-33
TD · Q4 13:33
Will Howard pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 12 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)
-21.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com