Try the model
UCF

UCF 28 at Cincinnati 26

CIN
2023 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023 · Nippert Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:13 · Mitch McCarthy punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the CIN 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 46Pregame prior−10.8Home team on offense−1.9Score differential−1.4Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:56: Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 11 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK) — CIN win probability +14.7 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q3 5:19: Ryan Montgomery run for 2 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK) — CIN win probability +15.1 pts (now 60%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:31: RJ Harvey run for 25 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK) — UCF win probability +23.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:41: RJ Harvey 1 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick) — UCF win probability +48.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:27: Corey Kiner run for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — CIN win probability +39.0 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UCF made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    42.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:58CIN 4th & 9 at UCF 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    43.3%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:56UCF 4th & 2 at UCF 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:07CIN 4th & 1 at UCF 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    46.0%−1.4
    32% to make
    Punt
    46.2%−1.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:11CIN 4th & 6 at UCF 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:13UCF 4th & 20 at UCF 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%−2.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:33UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00UCF 4th & 3 at UCF 46, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    59.2%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:44UCF 4th & 5 at CIN 30, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.3%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    56.4%−2.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:15CIN 4th & 16 at CIN 24, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−4.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:27UCF 4th & 7 at UCF 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%−1.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:18CIN 4th & 10 at UCF 44, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.4%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    35.2%−1.7
    27% to make
    Punt
    36.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:21CIN 4th & 10 at UCF 10, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−2.3
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.3%
    88% to make
    Punt
    21.5%−15.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UCF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 0:20UCF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:12UCF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:56CIN Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:19CIN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:31UCF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:41UCF Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.2%−4.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:27CIN Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    29.2%−3.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    32.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1FG
10 plays · 53 yds · 5:0234% → 37%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
34.0%
Emory Jones run for 7 yds to the CIN 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
34.0%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the CIN 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
34.0%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the CIN 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
34.0%
Emory Jones run for 2 yds to the CIN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
34.0%
Corey Kiner run for 16 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+25
34.0%
Emory Jones pass complete to Barry Jackson Jr. for 25 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
34.0%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 20
-9
34.0%
Emory Jones sacked by Tre'Mon Morris-Brash for a loss of 9 yards to the UCF 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 29
+7
34.0%
Corey Kiner run for 7 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q1 9:58
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+39
36.7%
Carter Brown 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0263% → 62%
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
36.6%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 3 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
36.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 6 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
36.4%
John Rhys Plumlee run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 33Similar
Q1 7:56
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
38.0%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 64 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3DOWNS
9 plays · 56 yds · 4:4937% → 40%
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
37.2%
Corey Kiner run for no gain to the CIN 3Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+8
37.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Payten Singletary for 8 yds to the CIN 11Similar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 2
OWN 11
+3
37.1%
Emory Jones pass complete to Payten Singletary for 3 yds to the CIN 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+23
37.5%
Corey Kiner run for 23 yds to the CIN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
37.7%
Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
50
+4
38.2%
Myles Montgomery run for 4 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+4
38.3%
Myles Montgomery run for 4 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+1
38.1%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the UCF 41Similar
Q1 3:07
4TH & 1
OPP 41
0
40.4%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4TD
7 plays · 59 yds · 2:4761% → 64%
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
39.5%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 39Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 12
OWN 39
-1
40.1%
Jarrad Baker run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 38Similar
Q1 3:07
3RD & 13
OWN 38
+15
40.4%
Cincinnati Penalty, Block below the waist on THREATS, Bryon enforced (Bryon Threats) to the CIN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
39.1%
PLUMLEE, John Rhys pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HUDSON, Kobe broken up by YOUNG, Jordan at the CIN1. PENALTY CIN Pass Interference on YOUNG, Jordan enforced 15 yards to the CIN26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
38.6%
Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the CIN 24Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+16
38.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 16 yds to the CIN 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
35.6%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 8 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:4937% → 38%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
37.3%
Myles Montgomery run for no gain to the CIN 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+10
37.2%
Brady Lichtenberg pass complete to Ryan Montgomery for 10 yds to the CIN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
37.5%
Brady Lichtenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+13
37.4%
Ryan Montgomery run for 13 yds to the CIN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
38.7%
Ryan Montgomery run for 2 yds to the CIN 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 49
-3
38.8%
Myles Montgomery run for a loss of 3 yards to the CIN 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+5
37.3%
Brady Lichtenberg pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 5 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q2 12:11
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
37.8%
Mason Fletcher punt for 45 yds, downed at the UCF 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:5862% → 60%
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
37.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+33
38.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 33 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
37.0%
RJ Harvey run for 6 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 4
OWN 43
-10
36.4%
PLUMLEE, John Rhys pass up the middle complete for -7 yards to RICHARDSON, Johnny caught at the UCF36 and advanced to the UCF36 (DINGLE, Jack), out of bounds. PENALTY UCF Holding on PITTMAN JR., Randy enforced 10 yards from the UCF43 to the UCF33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 14
OWN 33
+7
37.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to RJ Harvey for 7 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-5
37.1%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 35Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 12
OWN 35
-8
38.1%
John Rhys Plumlee run for a loss of 8 yards to the UCF 27 fumbled, recovered by UCF John Rhys Plumlee [NHSG] QB Keeper PLUMLEE, John Rhys rush up the middle for a loss of 8 yards, PLUMLEE, John Rhys fumbled at UCF30 , recovered by UCF PLUMLEE, John Rhys at the UCF27, returned 0 yards to the UCF27 (PHILLIPS, Eric).Similar
Q2 9:13
4TH & 20
OWN 27
0
39.6%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the CIN 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7FUMBLE
4 plays · 47 yds · 1:2240% → 40%
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
40.0%
Corey Kiner run for 8 yds to the CIN 49Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 2
OWN 49
0
40.4%
Brady Lichtenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:13
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+4
39.8%
Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+35
40.1%
Brady Lichtenberg pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 35 yds Xzavier Henderson fumbled, recovered by UCF Jason Johnson [NHSG] LICHTENBERG, Brady pass to the left complete for 35 yards to HENDERSON, Xzavier caught at the UCF32, HENDERSON, Xzavier fumbled at UCF32 forced by WELLS, William, recovered by UCF JOHNSON, Jason at the UCF12, returned 0 yards to the UCF12, End of Play, clock 07:51.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8TD
9 plays · 88 yds · 3:3963% → 73%
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+24
37.3%
RJ Harvey run for 24 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
36.5%
RJ Harvey run for no gain to the UCF 36Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+22
36.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 22 yds to the CIN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
35.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+15
35.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 15 yds to the CIN 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
34.6%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 7 yds to the CIN 20Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 3
OPP 20
-1
34.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Johnny Richardson for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 21Similar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+8
35.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 8 yds to the CIN 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
27.2%
RJ Harvey run for 13 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 2:0928% → 44%
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-3
27.8%
Emory Jones sacked by Ricky Barber and Tre'Mon Morris-Brash for a loss of 3 yards to the CIN 24Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 13
OWN 24
+24
27.4%
Ryan Montgomery run for 24 yds to the CIN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
29.1%
Ryan Montgomery run for 16 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
29.6%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+25
29.6%
Ryan Montgomery run for 25 yds to the UCF 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
44.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 11 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:2363% → 62%
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
37.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Randy Pittman for 5 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
36.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
37.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:33
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
38.5%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the CIN 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11INT
8 plays · 35 yds · 1:1839% → 42%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
39.4%
Emory Jones sacked by Malachi Lawrence for a loss of 5 yards to the CIN 29Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+25
38.6%
Corey Kiner run for 25 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
41.7%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 8 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+3
41.8%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 3 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
41.8%
Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
41.7%
Emory Jones pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 10 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
35.8%
RJ Harvey run for 10 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13MISSED FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 4:1663% → 63%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
37.0%
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+12
36.8%
RJ Harvey run for 12 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
35.3%
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd to the UCF 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+6
35.6%
RJ Harvey run for 6 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
35.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 46
+19
37.0%
RJ Harvey run for 19 yds to the CIN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
33.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
34.0%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 3 yds to the CIN 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+2
35.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 2 yds to the CIN 30Similar
Q3 10:44
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+47
37.4%
Colton Boomer 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:2939% → 37%
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
39.0%
Corey Kiner run for a loss of 4 yards to the CIN 26Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 14
OWN 26
0
38.3%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 14
OWN 26
-2
37.1%
Emory Jones pass complete to Corey Kiner for a loss of 2 yards to the CIN 24Similar
Q3 9:15
4TH & 16
OWN 24
0
36.6%
Mason Fletcher punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4863% → 60%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
37.1%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
36.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
37.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:27
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
39.9%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the CIN 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:0839% → 60%
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
39.1%
Emory Jones sacked by Tre'Mon Morris-Brash for a loss of 5 yards to the CIN 20Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
38.7%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+40
37.3%
Emory Jones pass complete to Donovan Ollie for 40 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+29
43.4%
Ryan Montgomery run for 29 yds to the UCF 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
45.3%
Ryan Montgomery run for 2 yds to the UCF 9Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+7
45.3%
Emory Jones pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 7 yds to the UCF 2Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
60.4%
Ryan Montgomery run for 2 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 4:4244% → 72%
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
55.9%
RJ Harvey run for no gain to the UCF 15Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+27
56.2%
RJ Harvey run for 27 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
52.6%
RJ Harvey run for 10 yds to the CIN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
51.1%
Johnny Richardson run for no gain to the CIN 48Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+1
51.5%
Johnny Richardson run for 1 yd to the CIN 47Similar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+11
52.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 11 yds to the CIN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
51.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+3
51.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Alec Holler for 3 yds to the CIN 33Similar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+8
51.6%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 8 yds to the CIN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
28.1%
RJ Harvey run for 25 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18FG
18 plays · 65 yds · 8:3937% → 48%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
36.6%
Emory Jones pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 4 yds to the CIN 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
37.1%
Corey Kiner run for 10 yds to the CIN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
38.1%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the CIN 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+1
40.0%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the CIN 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+1
38.3%
Emory Jones run for 1 yd to the CIN 44Similar
Q4 12:18
4TH & 5
OWN 44
+5
35.8%
FLETCHER, Mason punt 38 yards to the UCF18, fair catch by WHITTEMORE, Trent, clock 12:18. PENALTY Before the snap, UCF Illegal Formation on RICHARDS, Mark-Antony enforced 5 yards from the CIN44 to the CIN49 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+35
41.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 35 yds to the UCF 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
43.9%
Cincinnati Penalty, False Start (Deondre Buford) to the UCF 7Similar
Q4 12:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
43.9%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
43.9%
Corey Kiner run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 8Similar
Q4 12:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
41.5%
Emory Jones sacked by John Walker and Malachi Lawrence for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 10Similar
Q4 12:18
4TH & 0
OWN 49
+7
37.5%
Myles Montgomery run for 7 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
41.9%
Corey Kiner run for 6 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 4
OPP 38
-10
41.9%
JONES, Emory pass to the right complete for 10 yards to METAYER, Chamon caught at the UCF31 and advanced to the UCF28 (ADAMS, Brandon). PENALTY CIN Holding on SINGLETARY, Payten enforced 10 yards from the UCF38 to the UCF48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 14
OPP 48
+4
39.0%
Myles Montgomery run for 4 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q4 12:18
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
38.6%
Emory Jones run for no gain to the UCF 44Similar
Q4 12:18
4TH & 10
OPP 44
+7
35.8%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 7 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q4 6:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
48.1%
Carter Brown 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:4061% → 95%
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
39.0%
Jarrad Baker run for 10 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
37.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Jarrad Baker for 3 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+40
35.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 40 yds to the CIN 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
32.2%
John Rhys Plumlee run for no gain to the CIN 22Similar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
32.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+12
35.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 12 yds to the CIN 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
32.2%
PLUMLEE, John Rhys pass to the left incomplete intended for BAKER, Javon broken up by CARROLL, Kalen at the CIN0. PENALTY CIN Personal Foul on WODTLY, Justin enforced half the distance from the goal, 5 yards from the CIN10 to the CIN5 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
32.2%
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the CIN 3Similar
Q4 6:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
32.2%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the CIN 1Similar
Q4 2:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.9%
RJ Harvey 1 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1913% → 50%
Q4 2:46
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+19
12.8%
Emory Jones run for 19 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
14.1%
Cincinnati Penalty, False Start (Dee Wiggins) to the CIN 48Similar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+9
12.1%
Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 9 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+37
14.7%
Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 37 yds to the UCF 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
10.6%
Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 9 yds to the CIN 34Similar
Q4 1:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
49.5%
Corey Kiner run for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21END OF GAME
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:2187% → 95%
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
13.5%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 45Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+10
12.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 10 yds to the CIN 35Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+4
12.6%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 4 yds to the CIN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
4.8%
[NH] Kneel down by PLUMLEE, John Rhys at CIN32 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:41
RJ Harvey 1 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)
-48
TD · Q4 1:27
Corey Kiner run for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+39
TD · Q3 0:31
RJ Harvey run for 25 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
-23.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com