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HOU

Houston 25 at Baylor 24

BAY
2023 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:52 · Blake Shapen run for 27 yds to the HOU 40 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 136Home team on offense−26.9Pregame prior+0.4Garbage-time factor−12.8Score differential−2.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:03: Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 26 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK) — HOU win probability +10.1 pts (now 52%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:20: Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 38 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +20.3 pts (now 57%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q4 5:38: Donovan Smith pass complete to Tony Mathis Jr. for 24 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK) — HOU win probability +31.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:52: Timeout Baylor, clock 01:52 — HOU win probability +12.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:29: Blake Shapen pass complete to Hawkins Polley for 1 yd for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +48.7 pts (now 68%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 6 of 7HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 7:55BAY 4th & 22 at HOU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−0.4
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.5%
    51% to make
    Punt
    58.3%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:31HOU 4th & 7 at HOU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:32BAY 4th & 3 at BAY 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:14BAY 4th & 6 at HOU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    58.9%−0.7
    28% to make
    Punt
    59.4%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:52BAY 4th & 8 at BAY 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:48BAY 4th & 14 at HOU 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−2.5
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.6%
    74% to make
    Punt
    38.0%−6.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:16HOU 4th & 10 at BAY 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−1.9
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.3%
    84% to make
    Punt
    54.3%−10.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:12HOU 4th & 5 at HOU 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%
    average punt
  9. Q4 8:18BAY 4th & 10 at HOU 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−4.9
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.3%
    88% to make
    Punt
    28.4%−18.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:51HOU 4th & 7 at BAY 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.5%
    64% to make
    Punt
    81.7%−4.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:52BAY 4th & 17 at BAY 33, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.2%−0.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2HOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 8:03HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 2:20BAY Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 5:38HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:29BAY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.1%−7.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1MISSED FG
13 plays · 43 yds · 7:0564% → 63%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
63.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 5 yds to the BAY 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
63.5%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the BAY 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
63.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 6 yds to the BAY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
63.5%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 5 yds to the BAY 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+18
63.5%
Blake Shapen run for 18 yds to the HOU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
63.5%
Richard Reese run for 4 yds to the HOU 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+4
63.5%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the HOU 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+11
63.5%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 11 yds to the HOU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 30
0
63.5%
Blake Shapen run for no gain to the HOU 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 25
OPP 35
+3
63.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 3 yds to the HOU 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 22
OPP 32
0
63.5%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Drake DabneySimilar
Q1 7:55
4TH & 22
OPP 32
+49
62.8%
Isaiah Hankins 49 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jamaree CaldwellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2437% → 37%
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
62.8%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Dalton CarnesSimilar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+1
62.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Parker Jenkins for 1 yd to the HOU 33Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+2
63.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 2 yds to the HOU 35Similar
Q1 6:31
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
63.2%
Laine Wilkins punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Josh Cameron at the BAY 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5963% → 62%
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
62.9%
Blake Shapen run for 4 yds to the BAY 29Similar
Q1 6:31
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
63.0%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 2 yds to the BAY 31Similar
Q1 6:31
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+1
62.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 1 yd to the BAY 32Similar
Q1 4:32
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
62.3%
Palmer Williams punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Malik Fleming at the HOU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4INT
10 plays · 63 yds · 5:2137% → 40%
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
62.6%
Parker Jenkins run for 2 yds to the HOU 24Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+11
62.6%
Donovan Smith run for 11 yds to the HOU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
62.4%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Matthew Golden for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
50
+1
61.6%
Donovan Smith run for 1 yd to the BAY 49Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+3
61.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 3 yds to the BAY 46Similar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+13
61.7%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Mike O'Laughlin for 13 yds to the BAY 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
61.3%
Stacy Sneed run for 13 yds to the BAY 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
59.6%
Donovan Smith run for 3 yds to the BAY 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 23
+8
60.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Mike O'Laughlin for 8 yds to the BAY 15Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 5
OPP 15
0
60.0%
Donovan Smith pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5DOWNS
10 plays · 36 yds · 4:5762% → 63%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
62.4%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 6 yds to the BAY 14Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+7
62.5%
Dominic Richardson run for 7 yds to the BAY 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
62.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 8 yds to the BAY 29Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+5
63.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Richard Reese for 5 yds to the BAY 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
62.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 9 yds to the BAY 43Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+10
63.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Armani Winfield for 10 yds to the HOU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
64.2%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Drake DabneySimilar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
64.1%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the HOU 45Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+2
63.7%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the HOU 43Similar
Q2 9:14
4TH & 6
OPP 43
-13
62.8%
Blake Shapen sacked by Treylin Payne for a loss of 13 yards to the BAY 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6TD
3 plays · 44 yds · 1:1141% → 52%
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
58.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 2 yds to the BAY 42Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+16
58.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 16 yds to the BAY 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
48.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 26 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:1152% → 49%
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
52.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 2 yds to the BAY 35Similar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+4
51.6%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 4 yds to the BAY 39Similar
Q2 8:03
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
51.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Dominic Richardson for no gain to the BAY 39Similar
Q2 5:52
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
49.3%
Palmer Williams punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the HOU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8PUNT
3 plays · 6 yds · 1:3051% → 52%
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
49.0%
Donovan Smith run for 2 yds to the HOU 29Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 13
OWN 24
+9
49.9%
Donovan Smith run for 9 yds to the HOU 33Similar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
48.1%
Laine Wilkins punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9MISSED FG
12 plays · 43 yds · 3:3450% → 46%
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
50.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 16 yds to the HOU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
52.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 5 yds to the HOU 43Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+1
52.6%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the HOU 42Similar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+9
52.2%
Dominic Richardson run for 9 yds to the HOU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
53.7%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Dominic RichardsonSimilar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+16
53.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jake Roberts for 16 yds to the HOU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
53.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 4 yds to the HOU 13Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 6
OPP 13
-8
51.4%
Blake Shapen sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the HOU 21Similar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 14
OPP 21
+21
47.9%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Josh CameronSimilar
Q2 0:48
4TH & 14
OPP 21
+38
46.0%
Isaiah Hankins 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10INT
7 plays · 32 yds · 0:3956% → 59%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
43.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joshua Cobbs for 6 yds to the HOU 27Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+7
42.8%
Donovan Smith run for 7 yds to the HOU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+19
42.7%
Parker Jenkins run for 19 yds to the BAY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
40.5%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
40.8%
Donovan Smith pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
45.0%
Kneel down by Baylor at BU04 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12FG
16 plays · 67 yds · 8:4456% → 68%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
44.3%
Parker Jenkins run for 3 yds to the HOU 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+1
44.2%
Parker Jenkins run for 1 yd to the HOU 23Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+5
45.2%
Donovan Smith run for 5 yds to the HOU 28Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
43.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 13 yds to the HOU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
41.9%
Donovan Smith run for 5 yds to the BAY 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+10
41.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 10 yds Samuel Brown fumbled, recovered by HOU Stephon Johnson for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
41.4%
Donovan Smith run for 5 yds to the BAY 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+4
41.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Tony Mathis Jr. for 4 yds to the BAY 30Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+2
38.6%
Donovan Smith run for 2 yds to the BAY 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
37.9%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 14 yds to the BAY 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
37.8%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 3 yds to the BAY 11Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 7
OPP 11
0
37.8%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for no gain to the BAY 11Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 17
OPP 21
+7
39.4%
Parker Jenkins run for 7 yds to the BAY 14Similar
Q3 6:16
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+31
32.3%
Jack Martin 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:5633% → 57%
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
33.3%
Richard Reese run for 9 yds to the BAY 34Similar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
34.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 3 yds to the BAY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 18
OWN 29
-6
33.2%
Blake Shapen sacked by Nelson Ceaser for a loss of 6 yards to the BAY 23Similar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 24
OWN 23
+15
32.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 15 yds to the BAY 38Similar
Q3 6:16
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+13
33.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jake Roberts for 13 yds to the HOU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
36.3%
Dominic Richardson run for 11 yds to the HOU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
56.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 38 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:0852% → 53%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
47.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 11 yds to the HOU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
46.5%
Donovan Smith run for 8 yds to the HOU 42Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+3
44.5%
Parker Jenkins run for 3 yds to the HOU 39Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
45.2%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Stephon JohnsonSimilar
Q3 0:12
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
47.4%
Laine Wilkins punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Josh Cameron at the BAY 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15FG
12 plays · 69 yds · 6:4251% → 63%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
50.5%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the BAY 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+7
50.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Cameron Bonner for 7 yds to the BAY 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+13
51.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Hawkins Polley for 13 yds to the BAY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
54.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 9 yds to the HOU 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+14
56.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 14 yds to the HOU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
58.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 10 yds to the HOU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
59.0%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 9 yds to the HOU 15Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+5
58.9%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 5 yds to the HOU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
58.9%
Richard Reese run for 8 yds to the HOU 2Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
0
57.8%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Josh CameronSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
+7
52.7%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 7 yds to the HOU 10Similar
Q4 8:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
62.7%
Isaiah Hankins 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:4045% → 85%
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+33
54.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 33 yds to the BAY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
49.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 14 yds to the BAY 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
47.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 4 yds to the BAY 24Similar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
47.3%
Donovan Smith run for no gain to the BAY 24Similar
Q4 5:38
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+24
15.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Tony Mathis Jr. for 24 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18MISSED FG
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:3386% → 89%
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
13.6%
Donovan Smith run for 6 yds to the BAY 34Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+5
13.2%
Donovan Smith run for 5 yds to the BAY 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
13.2%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 1 yd to the BAY 30Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+4
13.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 4 yds to the BAY 26Similar
Q4 3:04
3RD & 7
OPP 26
0
10.3%
Donovan Smith run for no gain to the BAY 26Similar
Q4 2:51
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+44
11.1%
Jack Martin 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19TD
13 plays · 74 yds · 2:2221% → 68%
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
21.0%
Blake Shapen run for 8 yds to the BAY 34Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+6
23.4%
Blake Shapen run for 6 yds to the BAY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-7
23.9%
Blake Shapen sacked by Nelson Ceaser for a loss of 7 yards to the BAY 33Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 17
OWN 33
0
11.7%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Drake DabneySimilar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 17
OWN 33
0
11.4%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Drake DabneySimilar
Q4 1:52
4TH & 17
OWN 33
+27
11.2%
Blake Shapen run for 27 yds to the HOU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
15.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jake Roberts for 7 yds to the HOU 33Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+15
21.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 15 yds to the HOU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+15
21.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Cameron Bonner for 15 yds to the HOU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
21.6%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the HOU 1Similar
Q4 0:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Hawkins Polley for 1 yd for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · -9 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
50.6%
Donovan Smith sacked by Byron Vaughns for a loss of 9 yards to the HOU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-50.6
TD · Q4 0:29
Blake Shapen pass complete to Hawkins Polley for 1 yd for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
+48.7
TD · Q4 5:38
Donovan Smith pass complete to Tony Mathis Jr. for 24 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)
-31.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com