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WVU

West Virginia 41 at UCF 28

UCF
2023 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadWVU aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreWVU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · [NHSG] Kneel down by WVU at UCF16 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+51.5+25.80−25.8−51.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:02: Jahiem White run for 4 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK) — WVU win probability +8.9 pts (now 45%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:01: Garrett Greene run for 7 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK) — WVU win probability +15.0 pts (now 63%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:25: John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 7 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK) — UCF win probability +15.1 pts (now 59%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  4. TD · Q4 14:12: Garrett Greene run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK) — WVU win probability +15.9 pts (now 74%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:25: CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK) — WVU win probability +13.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 2 of 3WVU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00WVU 4th & 1 at WVU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    31.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:01WVU 4th & 6 at UCF 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    32.4%−2.0
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00UCF 4th & 1 at WVU 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    63.8%−1.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    63.9%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:27WVU 4th & 4 at WVU 48, up 3
    Close callPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q3 2:36WVU 4th & 17 at WVU 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%−5.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%
    average punt
  6. Q4 13:37UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  7. Q4 10:56WVU 4th & 2 at UCF 26, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    76.7%−2.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    67.5%−11.3
    average punt
  8. Q4 8:33UCF 4th & 3 at UCF 32, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.5%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.8%
    average punt
  9. Q4 5:15WVU 4th & 14 at UCF 23, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    93.0%−2.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 3 of 4WVU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 10:57WVU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:06UCF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:02WVU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:50UCF Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:01WVU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:25UCF Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:12WVU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:25WVU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:46UCF Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.9%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WVUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:0329% → 32%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.7%
Garrett Greene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
70.7%
Jahiem White run for 11 yds to the WVU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
70.7%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Kole Taylor for 4 yds to the WVU 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
70.7%
Justin Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the WVU 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
70.7%
Justin Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the WVU 45Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+21
70.7%
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 21 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
70.7%
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 9 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+19
70.7%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Devin Carter for 19 yds to the UCF 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
68.3%
Garrett Greene run for 6 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5169% → 70%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
68.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 11 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
68.9%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+10
69.1%
RJ Harvey run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
50
+5
69.2%
Johnny Richardson run for 5 yds to the WVU 45Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 5
OPP 45
-1
69.2%
Johnny Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVU 46Similar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+8
69.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Jarrad Baker for 8 yds to the WVU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
69.2%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WVU 43Similar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+4
69.0%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the WVU 39Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+5
69.2%
Johnny Richardson run for 5 yds to the WVU 34Similar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+34
69.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 34 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 3FG
12 plays · 71 yds · 4:5931% → 33%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
69.1%
Garrett Greene run for 11 yds to the WVU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
69.0%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Rodney Gallagher for 7 yds to the WVU 41Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+15
68.5%
GREENE, Garrett pass up the middle incomplete intended for HORTON, EJ thrown to the UCF45. PENALTY UCF Pass Interference on ADAMS, Brandon enforced 15 yards to the UCF44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
68.4%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Rodney Gallagher for 13 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
67.8%
Justin Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+1
67.7%
Garrett Greene run for 1 yd to the UCF 28Similar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+19
68.1%
Jahiem White run for 19 yds to the UCF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
67.7%
Justin Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCF 7Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
67.7%
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCF 6Similar
Q1 4:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
68.0%
Garrett Greene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
66.7%
Michael Hayes 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4INT
8 plays · 38 yds · 2:4067% → 68%
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
67.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 6 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
67.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Trent Whittemore for 3 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q1 2:01
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+17
67.5%
Johnny Richardson run for 17 yds to the WVU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
68.4%
Johnny Richardson run for 3 yds to the WVU 46Similar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+3
68.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 3 yds to the WVU 43Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+3
67.9%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the WVU 40Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+3
67.4%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 3 yds to the WVU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
68.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass intercepted by Beanie Bishop Jr., at the WVU5, return for 31 yards to the WVU36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 5TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 4:1935% → 45%
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
65.3%
Garrett Greene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
65.5%
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 1 yd to the WVU 37Similar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+14
65.9%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Devin Carter for 14 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
64.5%
Rodney Gallagher run for 11 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
64.5%
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+6
64.0%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Kole Taylor for 6 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+5
64.5%
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 5 yds to the UCF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+14
64.0%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Kole Taylor for 14 yds to the UCF 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
64.0%
Jahiem White run for 6 yds to the UCF 4Similar
Q2 10:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
55.1%
Jahiem White run for 4 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:1256% → 66%
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
56.1%
Johnny Richardson run for 4 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
56.5%
Johnny Richardson run for no gain to the UCF 29Similar
Q2 10:02
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
55.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Jarrad Baker for 7 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
56.7%
Jarrad Baker run for 2 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+7
56.9%
RJ Harvey run for 7 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q2 10:02
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+6
57.1%
RJ Harvey run for 6 yds to the WVU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+29
57.8%
RJ Harvey run for 29 yds to the WVU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
59.0%
Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the WVU 18Similar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+10
59.0%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 10 yds to the WVU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
66.2%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 8 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 7FUMBLE
8 plays · 37 yds · 3:4539% → 43%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
61.0%
Garrett Greene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
61.4%
Rodney Gallagher run for 2 yds to the WVU 37Similar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+14
61.4%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Devin Carter for 14 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
59.4%
Garrett Greene run for 7 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+6
59.3%
Justin Johnson Jr. run for 6 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
59.4%
Justin Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 38Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 12
OPP 38
+2
59.5%
Garrett Greene run for 2 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 10
OPP 36
-2
57.2%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Jaylen Anderson for a loss of 2 yards Jaylen Anderson fumbled, recovered by UCF Demari HendersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
61.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass intercepted by Marcis Floyd, at the WVU42, return for 0 yards to the WVU42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3243% → 42%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
57.0%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Kole Taylor for 2 yds to the WVU 44Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+4
57.0%
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 4 yds to the WVU 48Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 4
OWN 48
0
56.1%
Garrett Greene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
57.8%
Oliver Straw punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Trent Whittemore at the UCF 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10END OF HALF
6 plays · 50 yds · 0:2760% → 62%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+17
59.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 17 yds to the UCF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-11
60.6%
PLUMLEE, John Rhys pass to the right incomplete intended for HUDSON, Kobe thrown to the UCF41. PENALTY UCF Holding on HARVEY, RJ enforced 11 yards from the UCF28 to the UCF17 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 21
OWN 17
+21
59.9%
RJ Harvey run for 21 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
60.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 4 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+19
62.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Jarrad Baker for 19 yds to the WVU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11INT
7 plays · 43 yds · 2:4059% → 62%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
59.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to RJ Harvey for 17 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
61.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to RJ Harvey for 3 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+6
61.9%
RJ Harvey run for 6 yds to the WVU 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+2
62.0%
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the WVU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
62.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Randy Pittman for 13 yds to the WVU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
63.7%
Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the WVU 32Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
62.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass intercepted by Beanie Bishop Jr., at the WVU12, return for 20 yards to the WVU32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 12TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 3:1945% → 63%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
55.3%
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 8 yds to the WVU 40Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 2
OWN 40
0
53.9%
Garrett Greene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+3
54.3%
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 3 yds to the WVU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+28
53.9%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Preston Fox for 28 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
52.1%
Garrett Greene pass complete to CJ Donaldson Jr. for 9 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+7
52.0%
Garrett Greene run for 7 yds to the UCF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
52.0%
Garrett Greene pass complete to EJ Horton for 6 yds to the UCF 7Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+7
37.1%
Garrett Greene run for 7 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:3639% → 59%
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
38.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 16 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
40.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Trent Whittemore for 8 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+3
41.6%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the WVU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+25
41.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Trent Whittemore for 25 yds to the WVU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+16
43.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Alec Holler for 16 yds to the WVU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
43.6%
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd to the WVU 6Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
43.6%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVU 7Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
58.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 7 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:4948% → 48%
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
51.7%
Jahiem White run for 3 yds to the WVU 28Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
51.3%
UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (Malachi Lawrence) to the WVU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
48.9%
Garrett Greene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
49.3%
Justin Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the WVU 48Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 8
OWN 48
-9
49.4%
Garrett Greene sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the WVU 39Similar
Q3 2:36
4TH & 17
OWN 39
0
51.8%
Oliver Straw punt for 43 yds, downed at the UCF 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15FUMBLE
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2653% → 55%
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
52.5%
Jarrad Baker run for 5 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+8
52.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 8 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
53.2%
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 5
OWN 36
-9
54.9%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the UCF 27 John Rhys fumbled, forced by Lee Kpogba, recovered by WVU Jalen ThorntonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 16TD
4 plays · 27 yds · 1:5857% → 74%
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+21
42.8%
Garrett Greene run for 21 yds to the UCF 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
42.0%
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 5 yds to the UCF 1Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
42.0%
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for no gain to the UCF 1Similar
Q4 14:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
26.1%
Garrett Greene run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3527% → 24%
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
26.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
25.3%
West Virginia Penalty, Offsides (Sean Martin) to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
26.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:37
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
24.0%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Preston Fox at the WVU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 4:1273% → 95%
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+32
27.3%
Jahiem White run for 32 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
24.4%
Jahiem White run for 5 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+1
24.2%
Garrett Greene run for 1 yd to the UCF 28Similar
Q4 10:56
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+2
18.2%
Jahiem White run for 2 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q4 10:56
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+13
20.5%
Garrett Greene pass complete to EJ Horton for 13 yds to the UCF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
17.8%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Preston Fox for 7 yds fumbled, forced by Demari Henderson, recovered by WVU Tomas Rimac Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+6
4.7%
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:527% → 7%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
6.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Alec Holler for 2 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
6.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 5 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
7.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:33
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
6.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 20FG
9 plays · 9 yds · 3:1896% → 99%
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
4.4%
Garrett Greene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+5
4.4%
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 5 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+8
4.5%
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 8 yds to the UCF 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
4.4%
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 4 yds to the UCF 15Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+2
1.7%
Rodney Gallagher run for 2 yds to the UCF 13Similar
Q4 5:23
3RD & 4
OPP 13
-10
1.7%
WHITE, Jahiem rush to the left for a gain of 13 yards to the UCF0, TOUCHDOWN WVU, score nullified by penalty, clock 05:23 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY WVU Holding on TAYLOR, Kole enforced 10 yards from the UCF13 to the UCF23 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:23
3RD & 14
OPP 23
0
1.9%
Garrett Greene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:15
4TH & 14
OPP 23
+41
0.8%
Michael Hayes 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 3:212% → 6%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
1.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-10
1.5%
PLUMLEE, John Rhys pass short to the right incomplete intended for HUDSON, Kobe thrown to the UCF21. PENALTY UCF Holding on GRABLE, Tylan enforced 10 yards from the UCF20 to the UCF10 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 20
OWN 10
+16
1.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 16 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+9
1.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Jarrad Baker for 9 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
1.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to RJ Harvey for 4 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+6
1.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to RJ Harvey for 6 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
1.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Randy Pittman for 6 yds to the WVU 49Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+7
1.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Randy Pittman for 7 yds to the WVU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
1.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Mark-Antony Richards for 11 yds to the WVU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
1.9%
PLUMLEE, John Rhys pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HUDSON, Kobe thrown to the WVU0. PENALTY WVU Pass Interference on WILSON, Anthony enforced 15 yards to the WVU16 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
1.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
1.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+16
5.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 16 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 22END OF GAME
8 plays · 28 yds · 1:4398% → 99%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
2.0%
West Virginia Penalty, False Start (Kole Taylor) to the UCF 49Similar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+6
1.5%
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 6 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+32
1.4%
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 32 yds to the UCF 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
1.3%
[NHSG] Kneel down by WVU at UCF13 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 12
OPP 13
0
1.4%
[NHSG] Kneel down by WVU at UCF15 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 15
0
1.4%
[NHSG] Kneel down by WVU at UCF16 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:12
Garrett Greene run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK)
-15.9
TD · Q3 5:25
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 7 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
+15.1
TD · Q3 9:01
Garrett Greene run for 7 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK)
-15
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com