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HOU

Houston 0 at Kansas State 41

KSU
2023 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
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Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playKSU scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:19 · Ui Ale run for 2 yds to the HOU 42 Ui Ale fumbled, recovered by KSU Desmond Purnell [SG] QB Keeper ALE, Ui rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards, ALE, Ui fumbled at HOU42 forced by LEE III, Will, recovered by KSU PURNELL, Desmond at the HOU42, returned 0 yards to the HOU42, End of Play; HOU turnover on downs, clock 10:19.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q2Q3Q4Play 136Pregame prior+8.2Home team on offense+35.5Score differential+29.3Blowout margin+15.7Garbage-time factor+9.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:08: Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 21 yds for a TD — KSU win probability +2.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:17: Treshaun Ward run for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK) — KSU win probability +5.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:33: DJ Giddens run for 9 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK) — KSU win probability +2.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 14:52: Parker Jenkins run for no gain to the HOU 10 — HOU win probability +2.4 pts (now 4%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. PUNT · Q3 12:04: Laine Wilkins punt for 38 yds — KSU win probability +3.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6HOU made the numbers' call on 12 of 16
  1. Q1 5:56HOU 4th & 8 at KSU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    13.2%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:56HOU 4th & 8 at KSU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    13.2%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:03HOU 4th & 6 at HOU 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:03HOU 4th & 6 at HOU 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:23HOU 4th & 12 at KSU 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−2.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:23HOU 4th & 12 at KSU 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−2.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:02HOU 4th & 11 at HOU 19, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:02HOU 4th & 11 at HOU 19, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00HOU 4th & 9 at KSU 44, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%−0.4
    27% to make
    Punt
    1.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:04HOU 4th & 2 at HOU 29, down 28
    Close callPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:04HOU 4th & 2 at HOU 29, down 28
    Close callPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:14KSU 4th & 3 at KSU 40, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:14KSU 4th & 3 at KSU 40, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:23HOU 4th & 7 at KSU 37, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:23HOU 4th & 7 at KSU 37, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:26KSU 4th & 5 at HOU 38, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:26KSU 4th & 5 at HOU 38, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:49HOU 4th & 8 at KSU 48, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 12:54KSU 4th & 10 at KSU 48, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  20. Q4 10:19HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 40, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 5:42HOU 4th & 10 at HOU 29, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:26KSU 4th & 3 at KSU 43, up 41
    Close callPunted · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 9:37KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:08KSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:17KSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:33KSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:22KSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:46KSU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KSUDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:2389% → 89%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
88.9%
DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the KSU 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
88.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Jayce Brown for 5 yds to the KSU 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
88.9%
Will Howard run for 5 yds to the KSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
88.9%
DJ Giddens run for no gain to the KSU 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-5
88.9%
Will Howard sacked by Chidozie Nwankwo for a loss of 5 yards to the KSU 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 34
+23
88.9%
Will Howard pass complete to DJ Giddens for 23 yds to the HOU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
88.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 2 yds to the HOU 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+14
88.9%
DJ Giddens run for 14 yds to the HOU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
88.9%
DJ Giddens run for 6 yds to the HOU 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+8
88.9%
DJ Giddens run for 8 yds to the HOU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
88.9%
Treshaun Ward run for 1 yd to the HOU 12Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+12
88.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 12 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 31 yds · 3:4112% → 12%
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
88.2%
Houston Penalty, Delay Of Game (Donovan Smith) to the HOU 20Similar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
88.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Matthew Golden for 4 yds to the HOU 24Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+8
88.2%
Parker Jenkins run for 8 yds to the HOU 32Similar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
88.2%
Donovan Smith run for 5 yds to the HOU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
88.1%
Parker Jenkins run for 17 yds to the KSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
88.0%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
88.0%
Donovan Smith run for 2 yds to the KSU 44Similar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 8
OPP 44
0
88.0%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:56
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
87.7%
Laine Wilkins punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KSU 11Similar
Q1 5:56
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
87.7%
Laine Wilkins punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3TD
16 plays · 89 yds · 7:4888% → 90%
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
87.8%
Treshaun Ward run for 9 yds to the KSU 20Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+4
87.5%
Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the KSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
87.7%
Will Howard pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 9 yds to the KSU 33Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+2
87.8%
Jayce Brown run for 2 yds to the KSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
87.7%
Treshaun Ward run for 1 yd to the KSU 36Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+6
87.7%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 6 yds to the KSU 42Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+4
87.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 4 yds to the KSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
88.0%
Will Howard run for 11 yds to the HOU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
88.1%
Treshaun Ward run for 3 yds to the HOU 40Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 1
OWN 20
0
87.7%
Jayce Brown run for no gain to the KSU 20Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+8
87.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Jayce Brown for 8 yds to the HOU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
87.4%
Treshaun Ward run for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+8
87.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 8 yds to the HOU 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+4
87.1%
Will Howard run for 4 yds to the HOU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
89.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 21 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0511% → 11%
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.8%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
88.8%
Stacy Sneed run for 4 yds to the HOU 29Similar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
88.7%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:03
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
88.9%
Laine Wilkins punt for 42 yds, downed at the KSU 29Similar
Q2 12:03
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
88.9%
Laine Wilkins punt for 42 yds, downed at the KSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5FUMBLE
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:3989% → 89%
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
89.4%
DJ Giddens run for no gain to the KSU 29Similar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-3
89.3%
Avery Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the KSU 26 Avery Johnson fumbled, recovered by HOU David Ugwoegbu [NHSG] QB Keeper JOHNSON, Avery rush up the middle for a loss of 3 yards, JOHNSON, Avery fumbled at KSU24 , recovered by HOU UGWOEGBU, David at the KSU26, returned 0 yards to the KSU26, End of Play, clock 11:24.Similar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-3
89.3%
Avery Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the KSU 26 Avery Johnson fumbled, recovered by HOU David UgwoegbuSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6MISSED FG
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:0113% → 12%
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
87.4%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-2
87.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the KSU 28Similar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 12
OPP 28
0
88.1%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:23
4TH & 12
OPP 28
+45
88.4%
Jack Martin 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q2 10:23
4TH & 12
OPP 28
+45
88.4%
Jack Martin 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 4:0689% → 95%
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
89.4%
Jadon Jackson run for 7 yds to the KSU 35Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+2
89.5%
Will Howard pass complete to DJ Giddens for 2 yds to the KSU 37Similar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+40
89.4%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 40 yds to the HOU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
90.1%
Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the HOU 19Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+8
90.1%
Jadon Jackson run for 8 yds to the HOU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
90.1%
Will Howard run for 2 yds to the HOU 9Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
90.1%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+8
89.8%
Treshaun Ward run for 8 yds to the HOU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.4%
Treshaun Ward run for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 2:106% → 5%
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
94.2%
Parker Jenkins run for no gain to the HOU 20Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-5
94.3%
Houston Penalty, False Start (Reuben Unije) to the HOU 15Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+4
94.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 4 yds to the HOU 19Similar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
94.3%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:02
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
94.9%
Laine Wilkins punt for 40 yds, downed at the HOU 44Similar
Q2 4:02
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
94.9%
Laine Wilkins punt for 40 yds, downed at the HOU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 9TD
5 plays · 44 yds · 2:2996% → 99%
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
96.1%
DJ Giddens run for 9 yds to the HOU 35Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+8
96.1%
DJ Giddens run for 8 yds to the HOU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
96.1%
DJ Giddens run for 3 yds to the HOU 24Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+15
96.1%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 15 yds to the HOU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
98.7%
DJ Giddens run for 9 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10DOWNS
13 plays · 31 yds · 1:332% → 1%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.5%
Donovan Smith run for 4 yds to the HOU 29Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
98.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 11 yds to the HOU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 2
OWN 48
0
98.1%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+7
98.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 7 yds to the KSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
98.3%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-10
98.3%
SMITH, Donovan pass to the right incomplete intended for COBBS, Joshua thrown to the KSU30; QB hurried by CLIFTON, Jake. PENALTY HOU Holding on UNIJE, Reuben enforced 10 yards from the KSU45 to the HOU45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
98.4%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joshua Cobbs for 8 yds to the HOU 48Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 20
OWN 45
+11
98.8%
Parker Jenkins run for 11 yds to the KSU 44Similar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
98.9%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
98.9%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:484% → 1%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
96.5%
Parker Jenkins run for no gain to the HOU 10Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+11
96.5%
Parker Jenkins run for 11 yds to the HOU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
96.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 5 yds to the HOU 26Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+4
96.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 4 yds to the HOU 30Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 1
OWN 30
-1
95.6%
Parker Jenkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 29Similar
Q3 12:04
4TH & 2
OWN 29
0
99.2%
Laine Wilkins punt for 38 ydsSimilar
Q3 12:04
4TH & 2
OWN 29
0
99.2%
Laine Wilkins punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5099% → 99%
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
99.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 5 yds to the KSU 38Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+2
99.2%
Will Howard run for 2 yds to the KSU 40Similar
Q3 12:04
3RD & 3
OWN 40
0
99.2%
Will Howard run for no gain to the KSU 40Similar
Q3 10:14
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
99.2%
Jack Blumer punt for 34 ydsSimilar
Q3 10:14
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
99.2%
Jack Blumer punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13DOWNS
10 plays · 24 yds · 4:511% → 0%
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
99.3%
Parker Jenkins run for 9 yds to the HOU 39Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 1
OWN 39
0
99.3%
Parker Jenkins run for no gain to the HOU 39Similar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+1
99.3%
Donovan Smith run for 1 yd to the HOU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
99.3%
Parker Jenkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 39Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+21
99.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 21 yds to the KSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
99.3%
Parker Jenkins run for 2 yds to the KSU 38Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+1
99.3%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 1 yd to the KSU 37Similar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 7
OPP 37
0
99.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Matthew Golden for no gain to the KSU 37Similar
Q3 5:23
4TH & 7
OPP 37
-9
99.6%
Donovan Smith sacked by Nate Matlack for a loss of 9 yards to the KSU 46Similar
Q3 5:23
4TH & 7
OPP 37
-9
99.6%
Donovan Smith sacked by Nate Matlack for a loss of 9 yards to the KSU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 14DOWNS
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:57100% → 100%
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
99.7%
DJ Giddens run for 11 yds to the HOU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
99.7%
Will Howard run for 9 yds to the HOU 34Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 1
OPP 34
-4
99.6%
Will Howard sacked by Jamaree Caldwell for a loss of 4 yards to the HOU 38Similar
Q3 5:23
3RD & 5
OPP 38
0
99.7%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:26
4TH & 5
OPP 38
+4
99.7%
Will Howard pass complete to RJ Garcia II for 4 yds to the HOU 34Similar
Q3 3:26
4TH & 5
OPP 38
+4
99.7%
Will Howard pass complete to RJ Garcia II for 4 yds to the HOU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15INT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:260% → 0%
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
99.7%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Parker Jenkins for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 33Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 11
OWN 33
0
99.7%
Parker Jenkins run for no gain to the HOU 33Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 11
OWN 33
0
99.8%
Donovan Smith pass interceptedSimilar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 11
OWN 33
0
99.8%
Donovan Smith pass intercepted by Will Lee III, at the HOU 40, returned for 16 yards to the HOU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16TD
2 plays · 24 yds · 0:38100% → 100%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
99.8%
DJ Giddens run for 11 yds to the HOU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
99.8%
DJ Giddens run for 13 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17DOWNS
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:330% → 0%
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
99.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
50
0
99.8%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
50
+2
99.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Matthew Golden for 2 yds to the KSU 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
99.8%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:55100% → 100%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
99.8%
Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 8
50
+2
99.8%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 2 yds to the HOU 48Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 6
OPP 48
-4
99.8%
Avery Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the KSU 48Similar
Q4 12:54
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
99.8%
Jack Blumer punt for 36 yds, downed at the HOU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:350% → 0%
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
99.9%
Ui Ale run for 7 yds to the HOU 23Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+8
99.9%
Ui Ale run for 8 yds to the HOU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
99.9%
Stacy Sneed run for 2 yds to the HOU 33Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Ui Ale pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+7
99.9%
Ui Ale pass complete to Joshua Cobbs for 7 yds to the HOU 40Similar
Q4 10:19
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+2
99.9%
Ui Ale run for 2 yds to the HOU 42 Ui Ale fumbled, recovered by KSU Desmond Purnell [SG] QB Keeper ALE, Ui rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards, ALE, Ui fumbled at HOU42 forced by LEE III, Will, recovered by KSU PURNELL, Desmond at the HOU42, returned 0 yards to the HOU42, End of Play; HOU turnover on downs, clock 10:19.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:33100% → 100%
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
99.9%
Anthony Frias II run for 1 yd to the HOU 41Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
99.9%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Anthony Frias II for no gain to the HOU 41Similar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+16
99.9%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 16 yds to the HOU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
99.9%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-5
99.9%
Kansas State Penalty, False Start (Will Swanson) to the HOU 30Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+5
99.9%
Avery Johnson run for 5 yds to the HOU 25Similar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+21
99.9%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Will Swanson for 21 yds to the HOU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
99.9%
Avery Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the HOU 7Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.9%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Seth Porter for 7 yds for a TD (Leyton Simmering PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:000% → 0%
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Ui Ale pass complete to Jonah Wilson for no gain to the HOU 29Similar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Ui Ale pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Ui Ale pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:42
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Laine Wilkins punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 4:16100% → 100%
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
99.9%
Anthony Frias II run for 3 yds to the KSU 27Similar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+2
99.9%
Anthony Frias II run for 2 yds to the KSU 29Similar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+7
99.9%
Anthony Frias II run for 7 yds to the KSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
99.9%
Anthony Frias II run for 1 yd to the KSU 37Similar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+5
99.9%
Jake Rubley pass complete to Erik Pizarro for 5 yds to the KSU 42Similar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+1
99.9%
Anthony Frias II run for 1 yd to the KSU 43Similar
Q4 1:26
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
100.0%
Jack Blumer punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · 30 yds · 1:260% → 0%
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
100.0%
Ui Ale run for 11 yds to the HOU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
100.0%
Stacy Sneed run for 16 yds to the HOU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
100.0%
Stacy Sneed run for 3 yds to the HOU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:17
Treshaun Ward run for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)
+5.5
PUNT · Q3 12:04
Laine Wilkins punt for 38 yds
+3.6
TD · Q2 13:08
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 21 yds for a TD
+2.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com