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ISU

Iowa State 30 at Baylor 18

BAY
2023 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreISU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:17 · Dawson Pendergrass run for 1 yd to the ISU 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 151Home team on offense−29.2Score differential−9.8Garbage-time factor−12.3Pregame prior−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:03: Cartevious Norton run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Contreraz KICK) — ISU win probability +12.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:15: Cartevious Norton run for 49 yds for a TD (Chase Contreraz KICK) — ISU win probability +15.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:49: Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 69 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — BAY win probability +8.6 pts (now 19%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:36: Dawson Pendergrass run for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — BAY win probability +9.0 pts (now 24%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 8:23: Chase Contreraz 25 yd FG GOOD — ISU win probability +11.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 7 of 10ISU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 13:33BAY 4th & 9 at BAY 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:15BAY 4th & 11 at BAY 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:46BAY 4th & 7 at ISU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    42.1%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    41.6%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:39ISU 4th & 9 at BAY 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    56.4%−3.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:40ISU 4th & 3 at ISU 25, up 10
    Close callPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:51BAY 4th & 10 at BAY 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:03BAY 4th & 4 at ISU 24, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.1%−0.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    25.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    22.0%−3.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:05BAY 4th & 17 at BAY 18, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−2.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:13ISU 4th & 1 at BAY 26, up 18
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.5%−2.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    79.9%−7.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:49BAY 4th & 4 at BAY 31, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%−0.7
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:32ISU 4th & 5 at ISU 30, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:36BAY 4th & 1 at ISU 5, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.0%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    12.8%−3.2
    92% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−12.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:23ISU 4th & 6 at BAY 6, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    72.9%−11.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:17BAY 4th & 3 at ISU 23, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    10.0%−0.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−4.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:40ISU 4th & 10 at ISU 36, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:48BAY 4th & 26 at BAY 21, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ISU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:56ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:03ISU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:44BAY Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    31.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:15ISU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:49BAY Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    17.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    17.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:36BAY Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    25.5%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    25.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:2744% → 45%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
44.2%
Dominic Richardson run for 12 yds to the BAY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
44.2%
Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the BAY 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
44.2%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Drake DabneySimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
44.2%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray BaldwinSimilar
Q1 13:33
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
44.6%
Palmer Williams punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ISU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2TD
4 plays · 55 yds · 1:3756% → 56%
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
44.5%
Rocco Becht run for 6 yds to the BAY 49Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+5
44.5%
Eli Sanders run for 5 yds to the BAY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+26
44.5%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 26 yds to the BAY 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
43.6%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 18 yds for a TD (Chase Contreraz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:4144% → 43%
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
43.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 11 yds to the BAY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
44.0%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the BAY 39Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+8
44.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 8 yds to the BAY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
44.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jordan Nabors for 1 yd to the BAY 46Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 11
OWN 46
0
44.1%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Dawson PendergrassSimilar
Q1 11:56
3RD & 11
OWN 46
0
44.0%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray BaldwinSimilar
Q1 9:15
4TH & 11
OWN 46
0
43.4%
Palmer Williams punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4FUMBLE
9 plays · 60 yds · 3:3556% → 58%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
43.7%
Abu Sama III run for 1 yd to the ISU 8Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 9
OWN 8
0
43.7%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Jayden HigginsSimilar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 9
OWN 8
+17
43.8%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 17 yds to the ISU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
43.3%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 5 yds to the ISU 30Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+19
43.2%
Abu Sama III run for 19 yds to the ISU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
42.8%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Abu Sama IIISimilar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+17
42.9%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 17 yds to the BAY 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
42.0%
Abu Sama III run for 1 yd to the BAY 33 Abu Sama III fumbled, recovered by ISU Brooks Miller No Huddle-Shotgun Sama,Abu rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BU33 fumbled by Sama,Abu at BU32 forced by Lanz,Cooper recovered by BU Miller,Brooks at BU33, End Of Play. The previous play is under review. The ruling on the field stands.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5DOWNS
7 plays · 33 yds · 3:5443% → 43%
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
43.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelsey Johnson for 1 yd to the BAY 34Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+16
43.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
50
+13
44.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 13 yds to the ISU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
44.4%
Jordan Nabors run for no gain to the ISU 37Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+6
44.3%
Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the ISU 31Similar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+3
44.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 3 yds to the ISU 34Similar
Q1 1:46
4TH & 7
OPP 34
0
43.1%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray BaldwinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 4:0758% → 61%
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
41.8%
Eli Sanders run for no gain to the ISU 34Similar
Q1 1:46
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
42.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 5 yds to the ISU 39Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+7
40.9%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Benjamin Brahmer for 7 yds to the ISU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
40.7%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 2 yds to the ISU 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+27
40.8%
Eli Sanders run for 27 yds to the BAY 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
40.2%
Eli Sanders run for 3 yds to the BAY 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
40.2%
Iowa State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Rocco Becht) to the BAY 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 31
+7
41.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 7 yds to the BAY 24Similar
Q2 12:39
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+42
39.1%
Chase Contreraz 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7INT
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:0339% → 39%
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.0%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray BaldwinSimilar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
38.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 9 yds to the BAY 34Similar
Q2 12:39
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
39.1%
Blake Shapen run for 2 yds to the BAY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
39.4%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the BAY 39Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+5
39.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 5 yds to the BAY 44Similar
Q2 12:39
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+8
39.8%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 8 yds to the ISU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
39.4%
Blake Shapen pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:5661% → 64%
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
39.1%
Eli Sanders run for 7 yds to the ISU 14Similar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 3
OWN 14
+2
38.5%
Eli Sanders run for 2 yds to the ISU 16Similar
Q2 9:36
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+2
38.9%
Cartevious Norton run for 2 yds to the ISU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
38.5%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Jaylin NoelSimilar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+7
38.5%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Cartevious Norton for 7 yds to the ISU 25Similar
Q2 9:36
3RD & 3
OWN 25
0
38.7%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Jayden HigginsSimilar
Q2 6:40
4TH & 3
OWN 25
+1
36.4%
Tyler Perkins punt for 45 yds , Josh Cameron returns for 1 yd to the BAY 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9FUMBLE
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:4236% → 36%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
36.4%
Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the BAY 29Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+2
35.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 2 yds Dominic Richardson fumbled, recovered by ISU Joey Petersen No Huddle-Shotgun Shapen,Blake pass complete short right to Richardson,Dominic for 2 yards loss to the BU27 fumbled by Richardson,Dominic at BU30 forced by Willich,Carson recovered by ISU Petersen,Joey at BU27, End Of Play. The previous play is under review. The ruling on the field stands.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:5567% → 79%
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
33.5%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Eli SandersSimilar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+4
33.6%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 4 yds to the BAY 23Similar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+9
33.8%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 9 yds to the BAY 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
33.5%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Eli Sanders for 11 yds to the BAY 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
33.5%
Cartevious Norton run for no gain to the BAY 1Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
33.5%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Jaylin NoelSimilar
Q2 3:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
21.1%
Cartevious Norton run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Contreraz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:1226% → 25%
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
25.8%
Blake Shapen run for 1 yd to the BAY 26Similar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
25.7%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 1 yd to the BAY 25Similar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
26.0%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Drake DabneySimilar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
25.1%
Palmer Williams punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the ISU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
18.5%
Rocco Becht pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13TD
9 plays · 40 yds · 1:0028% → 35%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
28.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 10 yds to the ISU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
29.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 4 yds to the ISU 26Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+5
29.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 5 yds to the ISU 21Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+3
28.2%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 3 yds to the ISU 24Similar
Q2 1:03
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+16
26.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 8 yds to the ISU 16 for a 1ST down Iowa State Penalty, Targeting (T.J. Tampa) to the ISU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
28.0%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Drake DabneySimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
35.3%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 8 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
28.5%
Kneel down by Iowa St. at ISU23 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 15TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 3:4569% → 86%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
30.8%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Stevo KlotzSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+7
31.2%
Eli Sanders run for 7 yds to the ISU 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+5
31.1%
Eli Sanders run for 5 yds to the ISU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
29.8%
Eli Sanders run for 3 yds to the ISU 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 36
-5
31.0%
PENALTY ISU False Start (Neal,James) 5 yards from ISU36 to ISU31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 31
+14
31.3%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Benjamin Brahmer for 14 yds to the ISU 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+6
30.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 6 yds to the BAY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
14.2%
Cartevious Norton run for 49 yds for a TD (Chase Contreraz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:1017% → 16%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
17.2%
Blake Shapen sacked by Tyler Onyedim for a loss of 7 yards to the BAY 18Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
17.0%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Josh CameronSimilar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
16.9%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray BaldwinSimilar
Q3 10:05
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
16.1%
Palmer Williams punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the ISU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 17FG
6 plays · 34 yds · 2:5287% → 94%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+25
13.5%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 25 yds to the BAY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
13.1%
Cartevious Norton run for 1 yd to the BAY 34Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+3
13.2%
Cartevious Norton run for 3 yds to the BAY 31Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+5
13.3%
Rocco Becht run for 5 yds to the BAY 26Similar
Q3 7:13
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+45
5.8%
Chase Contreraz 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2410% → 19%
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
9.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 5 yds to the BAY 30Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
10.4%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Jake RobertsSimilar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+1
10.1%
Blake Shapen run for 1 yd to the BAY 31Similar
Q3 5:49
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+69
18.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 69 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:1785% → 87%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
14.7%
Eli Sanders run for 6 yds to the ISU 31Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
14.6%
Eli Sanders run for 3 yds to the ISU 34Similar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
14.9%
run for 4 yds to the ISU 30 fumbled, recovered by ISU Rocco Becht No Huddle-Shotgun Iowa St. rush middle for 4 yards loss to the ISU30 fumbled by Iowa St. at ISU34 recovered by ISU Becht,Rocco at ISU30, End Of Play.Similar
Q3 3:32
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
13.2%
Tyler Perkins punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Josh Cameron at the BAY 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20TD
11 plays · 69 yds · 4:5616% → 24%
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
15.8%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Cameron BonnerSimilar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+2
15.5%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the BAY 33Similar
Q3 3:32
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+15
15.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 15 yds to the BAY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
17.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jordan Nabors for 4 yds to the ISU 48Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+8
17.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 8 yds to the ISU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+26
17.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 26 yds to the ISU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
17.0%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the ISU 12Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+6
17.0%
Blake Shapen run for 6 yds to the ISU 6Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+1
16.6%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 1 yd to the ISU 5Similar
Q4 13:36
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+5
23.9%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 21FG
14 plays · 69 yds · 5:1377% → 92%
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
22.8%
Rocco Becht run for no gain to the ISU 25Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+48
23.7%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Benjamin Brahmer for 48 yds to the BAY 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
18.9%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Daniel JacksonSimilar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+1
19.3%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Easton Dean for 1 yd to the BAY 26Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+9
20.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 9 yds to the BAY 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
18.9%
Cartevious Norton run for 2 yds to the BAY 15Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 8
OPP 15
-5
18.9%
PENALTY ISU False Start (Klotz,Stevo) 5 yards from BU15 to BU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 13
OPP 20
+8
19.2%
Eli Sanders run for 8 yds to the BAY 12Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+6
19.5%
Eli Sanders run for 6 yds to the BAY 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
18.9%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Jayden HigginsSimilar
Q4 13:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
18.9%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Dimitri StanleySimilar
Q4 13:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
19.5%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Jayden HigginsSimilar
Q4 8:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+25
7.7%
Chase Contreraz 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22DOWNS
10 plays · 53 yds · 4:0612% → 9%
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
12.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Armani Winfield for 5 yds to the BAY 30Similar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+17
12.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jake Roberts for 17 yds to the BAY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
13.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelsey Johnson for 4 yds to the ISU 49Similar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+1
13.8%
Blake Shapen run for 1 yd to the ISU 48Similar
Q4 8:23
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+18
13.7%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 18 yds to the ISU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
15.7%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Kelsey JohnsonSimilar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
15.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jordan Nabors for 3 yds to the ISU 27Similar
Q4 8:23
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+4
14.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jordan Nabors for 4 yds to the ISU 23Similar
Q4 4:17
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+1
9.0%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 1 yd to the ISU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:3795% → 98%
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
5.4%
Eli Sanders run for 14 yds to the ISU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
5.2%
Cartevious Norton run for 3 yds to the ISU 33Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+2
5.5%
Cartevious Norton run for 2 yds to the ISU 35Similar
Q4 2:39
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+1
3.7%
Cartevious Norton run for 1 yd to the ISU 36Similar
Q4 1:40
4TH & 10
OWN 36
+18
1.9%
Tyler Perkins punt for 45 yds , Josh Cameron returns for 18 yds to the BAY 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24DOWNS
4 plays · -16 yds · 0:523% → 2%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-6
2.5%
Blake Shapen sacked by J.R. Singleton for a loss of 6 yards to the BAY 31Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 16
OWN 31
0
2.4%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray BaldwinSimilar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 16
OWN 31
0
2.3%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Jake RobertsSimilar
Q4 0:48
4TH & 26
OWN 21
0
2.2%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Josh CameronSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:4898% → 98%
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
1.6%
Kneel down by Iowa St. at BU23 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 23
-1
1.6%
Kneel down by Iowa St. at BU24 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:15
Cartevious Norton run for 49 yds for a TD (Chase Contreraz KICK)
-15.9
TD · Q2 3:03
Cartevious Norton run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Contreraz KICK)
-12.3
FG · Q4 8:23
Chase Contreraz 25 yd FG GOOD
-11.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com