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UCF

UCF 29 at Oklahoma 31

OU
2023 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2023 · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:15 · Mitch McCarthy punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 13Pregame prior+36.6Home team on offense−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:51: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Nic Anderson for 42 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK) — OU win probability +7.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:24: John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 86 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK) — UCF win probability +10.3 pts (now 27%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:16: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 11 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK) — OU win probability +26.0 pts (now 75%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:13: Gavin Sawchuk run for 30 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK) — OU win probability +26.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:16: John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 12 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — UCF win probability +22.0 pts (now 31%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UCF made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 14:14UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:01OU 4th & 14 at OU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:15UCF 4th & 11 at UCF 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:40OU 4th & 5 at UCF 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    85.2%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 8:39UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:46UCF 4th & 6 at UCF 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:59OU 4th & 1 at UCF 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    85.4%−0.4
    77% to make
    Punt
    84.2%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q1 0:53OU 4th & 20 at UCF 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%−0.7
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    83.4%−1.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:05OU 4th & 5 at OU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:01UCF 4th & 4 at OU 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.8%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    20.5%−4.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:51UCF 4th & 8 at OU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.8%
    54% to make
    Punt
    27.5%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:46OU 4th & 3 at OU 39, down 3
    Close callPunted · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:28UCF 4th & 12 at OU 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−2.2
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.3%
    56% to make
    Punt
    35.8%−2.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:41OU 4th & 1 at OU 34, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%−2.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:46UCF 4th & 4 at OU 49, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%−1.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:01OU 4th & 19 at OU 40, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−5.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:31UCF 4th & 9 at UCF 17, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−2.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:30UCF 4th & 15 at UCF 33, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−5.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:16UCF 4th & 10 at OU 12, down 8
    Close callWent for it · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    7.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−3.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UCF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:48OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:49UCF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:51OU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:24UCF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:16OU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.7%−1.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:13OU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:16UCF Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    22.4%−3.5
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    25.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3012% → 12%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
88.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 4 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
88.2%
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd to the UCF 30Similar
Q1 14:14
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
88.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:14
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+22
88.2%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 47 yds , Gavin Freeman returns for 22 yds to the OU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:5188% → 88%
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
88.1%
Dillon Gabriel run for 1 yd to the OU 46Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 9
OWN 46
-5
88.0%
Gavin Sawchuk run for a loss of 5 yards to the OU 41 Gavin Sawchuk fumbled, recovered by OUSimilar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 14
OWN 41
0
87.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:01
4TH & 14
OWN 41
+2
87.8%
Luke Elzinga punt for 49 yds , Xavier Townsend returns for 2 yds to the UCF 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2812% → 13%
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
87.7%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 10Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 12
OWN 10
+4
87.6%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 4 yds to the UCF 14Similar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 8
OWN 14
-3
87.5%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked by Ethan Downs for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 11Similar
Q1 11:15
4TH & 11
OWN 11
0
87.4%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 4MISSED FG
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:2788% → 87%
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
87.5%
Dillon Gabriel run for 8 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+7
87.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gavin Freeman for 7 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
87.4%
Jalil Farooq run for no gain to the UCF 25Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
87.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jalil FarooqSimilar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+5
87.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 5 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q1 9:40
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+38
87.0%
Zach Schmit 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5613% → 13%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
86.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-5
86.7%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 15Similar
Q1 8:54
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+5
86.7%
Oklahoma Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the UCF 20Similar
Q1 8:48
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
86.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
Q1 8:39
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
86.6%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Gavin Freeman at the UCF 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 6TD
3 plays · 45 yds · 0:3887% → 88%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
86.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaquaize Pettaway for 9 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+7
86.7%
Dillon Gabriel run for 7 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
87.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Nic Anderson for 29 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5313% → 13%
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
87.5%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 13Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 11
OWN 13
+5
87.4%
Johnny Richardson run for 5 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 6
OWN 18
0
87.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for no gain to the UCF 18Similar
Q1 5:46
4TH & 6
OWN 18
0
87.5%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 34 yds , Gavin Freeman returns for no gain to the OU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 8MISSED FG
15 plays · 26 yds · 4:4688% → 86%
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
87.6%
Jalil Farooq run for 11 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
87.6%
Dillon Gabriel run for 5 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 5
OPP 36
0
87.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to LV Bunkley-SheltonSimilar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+8
87.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Nic Anderson for 8 yds to the UCF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
87.6%
Marcus Major run for no gain to the UCF 28Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+7
87.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Nic Anderson for 7 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+2
87.3%
Marcus Major run for 2 yds to the UCF 19Similar
Q1 2:59
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+3
87.3%
Marcus Major run for 3 yds to the UCF 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
87.6%
Marcus Major run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 17Similar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 11
OPP 17
-5
87.5%
Oklahoma Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 22Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 16
OPP 22
+4
87.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gavin Sawchuk for 4 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q1 1:31
3RD & 12
OPP 18
-8
87.2%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Lee Hunter for a loss of 8 yards to the UCF 26Similar
Q1 0:53
4TH & 20
OPP 26
+43
86.1%
Zach Schmit 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 3:5514% → 20%
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
86.4%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q1 0:21
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+6
86.2%
RJ Harvey run for 6 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+3
86.0%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
85.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 7 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q2 14:27
2ND & 3
OWN 45
0
85.6%
Johnny Richardson run for no gain to the UCF 45Similar
Q2 13:49
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+54
85.5%
RJ Harvey run for 54 yds to the OU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
84.7%
RJ Harvey run for no gain to the OU 1Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
84.5%
RJ Harvey run for no gain to the OU 1Similar
Q2 12:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
84.9%
Mark-Antony Richards run for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 2Similar
Q2 12:10
4TH & 0
OPP 2
+1
85.0%
Oklahoma Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (1 Yards) to the OU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.0%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 1 yd for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:3383% → 82%
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
82.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 9 yds to the OU 34Similar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
83.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 7 yds to the OU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
83.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 4 yds to the OU 45Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+1
83.5%
Dillon Gabriel run for 1 yd to the OU 46Similar
Q2 10:12
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
83.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Nic AndersonSimilar
Q2 10:05
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
82.4%
Luke Elzinga punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11FG
14 plays · 76 yds · 5:5719% → 26%
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
81.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 4 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+11
80.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Randy Pittman for 11 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
80.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Jarrad Baker for no gain to the UCF 35Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+23
80.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 23 yds to the OU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
77.8%
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the OU 40Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+18
77.3%
Xavier Townsend run for 18 yds to the OU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-3
76.1%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 3 yards to the OU 25Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 13
OPP 25
+13
76.2%
RJ Harvey run for 13 yds to the OU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
75.3%
Richardson, Johnny rush for 1 yard to the OKLAHOMA11, PENALTY OKLAHOMA face mask 6 yards to the OKLAHOMA6, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF.Similar
Q2 5:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
75.1%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 7Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
74.5%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the OU 4Similar
Q2 4:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
75.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Alec HollerSimilar
Q2 4:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
74.1%
Colton Boomer 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:5475% → 83%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
75.4%
Marcus Major run for 5 yds to the OU 30Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
75.7%
Marcus Major run for 4 yds to the OU 34Similar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
75.7%
Marcus Major run for 3 yds to the OU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
75.6%
Marcus Major run for 4 yds to the OU 41Similar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+5
76.4%
Gabriel, Dillon pass incomplete to Farooq, Jalil, PENALTY UCF substitution infraction 5 yards to the OKLAHOMA46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+5
76.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 5 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
76.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Nic AndersonSimilar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+7
76.2%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 7 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+42
83.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Nic Anderson for 42 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13TD
4 plays · 86 yds · 0:1216% → 28%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
83.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for no gain to the UCF 14Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+86
73.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 86 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-15
72.4%
UCF Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the UCF 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14FG
10 plays · 67 yds · 1:1673% → 81%
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
73.1%
Marcus Major run for 10 yds to the OU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
73.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Austin Stogner for 8 yds to the OU 44Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+9
74.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marcus Major for 9 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
75.3%
Gabriel, Dillon pass incomplete to Farooq, Jalil, PENALTY UCF pass interference 9 yards to the UCF38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 1
OPP 38
+9
75.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 9 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
76.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 7 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 3
OPP 22
0
76.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Austin StognerSimilar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+15
74.7%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the UCF 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
80.7%
Zach Schmit 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 15INT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:3177% → 78%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
76.9%
Gavin Freeman run for 10 yds to the OU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
77.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gavin Sawchuk for 8 yds to the OU 43Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+2
78.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gavin Freeman for 2 yds to the OU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
78.2%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the OU 47Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 8
OWN 47
-27
78.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass intercepted Quadric Bullard return for 27 yds to the OU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2330% → 32%
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
69.6%
Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the OU 31Similar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 8
OPP 31
0
69.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 8
OPP 31
0
70.3%
RJ Harvey run for no gain to the OU 31Similar
Q3 11:51
4TH & 8
OPP 31
+48
68.2%
Colton Boomer 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:4869% → 67%
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marcus Major for no gain to the OU 25Similar
Q3 11:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
68.2%
Marcus Major run for 5 yds to the OU 30Similar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
67.4%
Gabriel, Dillon pass incomplete to Stoops, Drake, PENALTY UCF pass interference 2 yards to the OKLAHOMA32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAHOMA.Similar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
68.4%
Marcus Major run for 8 yds to the OU 40Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 2
OWN 40
0
70.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jalil FarooqSimilar
Q3 10:28
3RD & 2
OWN 40
-1
69.7%
Marcus Major run for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 39Similar
Q3 9:46
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
66.8%
Luke Elzinga punt for 48 yds, downed at the UCF 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 4:1035% → 47%
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
65.4%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 12Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 11
OWN 12
+17
65.3%
RJ Harvey run for 17 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
64.1%
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd to the UCF 30Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+17
63.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 17 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
60.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 5 yds to the OU 48Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+20
60.0%
Xavier Townsend run for 20 yds to the OU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
58.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Johnny RichardsonSimilar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
58.3%
RJ Harvey run for no gain to the OU 28Similar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 10
OPP 28
-2
59.2%
John Rhys Plumlee run for a loss of 2 yards to the OU 30Similar
Q3 5:28
4TH & 12
OPP 30
+46
53.1%
Colton Boomer 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4156% → 53%
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.4%
Jalil Farooq run for 5 yds to the OU 30Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
56.2%
Marcus Major run for 3 yds to the OU 33Similar
Q3 4:28
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
55.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gavin Freeman for 1 yd to the OU 34Similar
Q3 3:41
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+6
52.8%
Luke Elzinga punt for 58 yds , Xavier Townsend returns for 6 yds to the UCF 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 37 yds · 2:4850% → 57%
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-11
50.0%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked by Jordan Kelley for a loss of 11 yards to the UCF 3 UCF Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Yards) to the UCF 3Similar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 21
OWN 3
+15
50.7%
Plumlee, John Rhys pass incomplete to Baker, Javon, PENALTY OKLAHOMA pass interference 15 yards to the UCF18, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF.Similar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
49.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+8
49.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 8 yds Xavier Townsend fumbled, recovered by UCFSimilar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+8
47.5%
RJ Harvey run for 8 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
46.3%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 11 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
42.5%
Johnny Richardson run for 3 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q3 1:13
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+3
41.6%
Johnny Richardson run for 3 yds to the OU 49Similar
Q3 0:54
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
41.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Jarrad BakerSimilar
Q3 0:46
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
43.2%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Gavin Freeman at the OU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 2:3750% → 45%
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
49.8%
Dillon Gabriel run for 8 yds to the OU 16Similar
Q3 0:16
2ND & 2
OWN 16
+4
50.1%
Marcus Major run for 4 yds to the OU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
49.9%
Dillon Gabriel run for 14 yds to the OU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
50.4%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 3 yds to the OU 37Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 7
OWN 37
-5
51.8%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Tre'Mon Morris-Brash for a loss of 5 yards to the OU 32Similar
Q4 13:59
3RD & 12
OWN 32
+17
46.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jayden Gibson for 17 yds to the OU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
53.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jalil FarooqSimilar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
52.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Nic AndersonSimilar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 10
OWN 49
-9
49.2%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Malachi Lawrence for a loss of 9 yards to the OU 40Similar
Q4 13:01
4TH & 19
OWN 40
+5
44.8%
Luke Elzinga punt for 49 yds , Xavier Townsend returns for 5 yds to the UCF 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2260% → 59%
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
39.8%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 15Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+2
39.0%
Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q4 11:41
3RD & 9
OWN 17
0
39.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Xavier TownsendSimilar
Q4 11:31
4TH & 9
OWN 17
0
40.9%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 48 yds , Gavin Freeman returns for no gain to the OU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 23TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 2:0844% → 75%
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
43.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marcus MajorSimilar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
43.4%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 7 yds to the OU 42Similar
Q4 10:56
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+8
45.6%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
50
0
47.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Nic AndersonSimilar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 10
50
+8
46.5%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 8 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q4 10:23
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+5
47.3%
Sawchuk, Gavin rush for 6 yards to the UCF36, PENALTY UCF substitution infraction 5 yards to the UCF37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAHOMA.Similar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+13
47.0%
Marcus Major run for 13 yds to the UCF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
49.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Drake StoopsSimilar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+13
49.2%
Marcus Major run for 13 yds to the UCF 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
75.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 11 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:3633% → 31%
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
66.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to RJ Harvey for 13 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
64.3%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
62.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Xavier TownsendSimilar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 6
OWN 42
-9
63.6%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked by Peyton Bowen for a loss of 9 yards to the UCF 33Similar
Q4 7:30
4TH & 15
OWN 33
+2
69.3%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 49 yds , Gavin Freeman returns for 2 yds to the OU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 25TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:1169% → 96%
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
69.3%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 1 yd to the OU 21Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+14
68.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 14 yds to the OU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
69.2%
Oklahoma Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OU 30Similar
Q4 6:17
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+2
68.5%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the OU 32Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+12
68.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 12 yds to the OU 44Similar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+6
71.1%
Marcus Major run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
50
0
72.6%
Gavin Freeman run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 10
50
+1
71.7%
Marcus Major run for 1 yd to the UCF 49Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+19
69.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Nic Anderson for 19 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
95.5%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 30 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 26TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 1:519% → 31%
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
90.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 10 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
89.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
91.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to RJ Harvey for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+39
93.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Randy Pittman for 39 yds to the OU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+19
87.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 19 yds to the OU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
86.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
88.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Javon BakerSimilar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
91.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Xavier TownsendSimilar
Q4 1:16
4TH & 10
OPP 12
+12
69.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 12 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 27END OF GAME
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:1190% → 95%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
90.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 48Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 11
OPP 48
-2
89.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 13
50
-1
94.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:13
Gavin Sawchuk run for 30 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)
+26.4
TD · Q4 9:16
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 11 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)
+26
TD · Q4 1:16
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 12 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-22
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com