Try the model
TEX

Texas 31 at Houston 24

HOU
2023 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2023 · TDECU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreTEX score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:59 · Ryan Sanborn punt for 51 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 28Pregame prior−43.1Home team on offense−5.8Score differential−2.5Garbage-time factor−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:07: Donovan Smith pass complete to Matthew Golden for 32 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK) — HOU win probability +3.0 pts (now 9%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:26: Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 21 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK) — HOU win probability +6.4 pts (now 15%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:29: Donovan Smith pass complete to Matthew Golden for 3 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK) — HOU win probability +11.1 pts (now 28%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 7:43: Jack Martin 40 yd FG GOOD — HOU win probability +16.4 pts (now 46%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:37: CJ Baxter run for 16 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK) — TEX win probability +23.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8TEX made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00TEX 4th & 2 at HOU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    91.9%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    91.9%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:32HOU 4th & 14 at HOU 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:01HOU 4th & 6 at HOU 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:59TEX 4th & 3 at TEX 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:20HOU 4th & 7 at HOU 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:35HOU 4th & 6 at HOU 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:33TEX 4th & 9 at TEX 21, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:33TEX 4th & 6 at HOU 26, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.2%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    89.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    87.0%−2.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:29TEX 4th & 1 at TEX 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    74.1%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:17TEX 4th & 2 at HOU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    68.7%−3.6
    27% to make
    Punt
    70.4%−1.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:36TEX 4th & 2 at HOU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    70.2%−1.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    61.5%−9.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:17TEX 4th & 7 at HOU 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    54.0%−12.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00HOU 4th & 1 at TEX 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    29.7%−4.5
    54% to make
    Punt
    27.4%−6.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:32TEX 4th & 3 at TEX 27, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.5%−1.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:43HOU 4th & 11 at TEX 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−5.9
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    21.2%−14.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:37HOU 4th & 2 at TEX 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    14.9%−4.5
    28% to make
    Punt
    14.3%−5.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:03HOU 4th & 1 at TEX 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    11.8%−9.2
    88% to make
    Punt
    8.1%−12.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TEX made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:02TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:56TEX Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:49TEX Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:07HOU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:26HOU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:29HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:37TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TEXDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:5895% → 94%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
5.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 10 yds to the TEX 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
5.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 6 yds to the TEX 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+11
5.1%
Jonathon Brooks run for 11 yds to the HOU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
5.1%
Texas Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TEX 47Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+3
5.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jonathon Brooks for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
50
+4
5.1%
Jonathon Brooks run for 4 yds to the HOU 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+8
5.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jonathon Brooks for 8 yds to the HOU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
5.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to CJ Baxter for 4 yds to the HOU 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+4
5.1%
CJ Baxter run for 4 yds to the HOU 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 30
0
5.1%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+16
5.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 16 yds to the HOU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
6.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 14 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:306% → 6%
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
6.2%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-8
6.1%
Donovan Smith sacked by Alfred Collins for a loss of 8 yards to the HOU 17Similar
Q1 10:02
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+4
6.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Matthew Golden for 4 yds to the HOU 21Similar
Q1 8:32
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
6.3%
Laine Wilkins punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 1:3694% → 94%
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
6.3%
Jonathon Brooks run for 9 yds to the TEX 47Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+4
6.3%
Jonathon Brooks run for 4 yds to the HOU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
6.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jonathon Brooks for 7 yds to the HOU 42Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+42
5.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 42 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:556% → 6%
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
6.2%
Parker Jenkins run for 4 yds to the HOU 29Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
6.2%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
6.2%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:01
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
6.3%
Laine Wilkins punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0294% → 94%
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
6.1%
Jonathon Brooks run for no gain to the TEX 27Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+1
6.1%
Jonathon Brooks run for 1 yd to the TEX 28Similar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+6
6.1%
Quinn Ewers run for 6 yds to the TEX 34Similar
Q1 3:59
4TH & 3
OWN 34
0
6.4%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:397% → 7%
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
6.7%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 10 yds to the HOU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
6.8%
Stacy Sneed run for a loss of 2 yards to the HOU 37Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 12
OWN 37
0
6.7%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 12
OWN 37
+5
6.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Mike O'Laughlin for 5 yds to the HOU 42Similar
Q1 2:20
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
6.8%
Laine Wilkins punt for 16 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7TD
10 plays · 58 yds · 4:3194% → 96%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
6.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to CJ Baxter for 4 yds to the TEX 46Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+11
6.4%
CJ Baxter run for 11 yds to the HOU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
6.4%
BAXTER, CJ rush up the middle for a gain of 10 yards to the HOU33 (HAULCY, A.J.). PENALTY UT Holding on HELM, Gunnar enforced 10 yards from the HOU43 to the UT47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 20
OWN 47
+11
6.4%
Jonathon Brooks run for 11 yds to the HOU 42Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+23
6.6%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 23 yds to the HOU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
6.6%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 7 yds to the HOU 12Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+2
6.6%
CJ Baxter run for 2 yds to the HOU 10Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+6
6.6%
CJ Baxter run for 6 yds to the HOU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
6.6%
CJ Baxter run for 3 yds to the HOU 1Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.2%
Savion Red 1 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:095% → 5%
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
5.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Parker Jenkins for 4 yds to the HOU 19Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+5
5.0%
SMITH, Donovan pass to the left complete for 5 yards to BROWN, Samuel caught at the HOU18 and advanced to the HOU24 (THOMPSON, Jerrin;BROUGHTON, Vernon). PENALTY UT Offsides on FINKLEY, Justice enforced 5 yards from the HOU19 to the HOU24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+2
5.1%
Parker Jenkins run for 2 yds to the HOU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
5.0%
Joseph Manjack IV run for a loss of 2 yards to the HOU 24Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+6
5.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 6 yds to the HOU 30Similar
Q2 12:44
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
5.0%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:35
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
4.9%
Laine Wilkins punt for 46 yds , Xavier Worthy returns for no gain to the TEX 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 2:0296% → 96%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
4.2%
Jonathon Brooks run for 3 yds to the TEX 23Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
4.2%
Jonathon Brooks run for 3 yds to the TEX 26Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-5
4.3%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Jamaree Caldwell for a loss of 5 yards to the TEX 21Similar
Q2 7:33
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
4.5%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 47 yds , returns for no gain to the HOU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10TD
4 plays · 71 yds · 1:265% → 9%
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
5.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Matthew Golden for 13 yds to the HOU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
5.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 5 yds to the HOU 47Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+21
5.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 21 yds to the TEX 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
8.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Matthew Golden for 32 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11DOWNS
7 plays · 30 yds · 3:2693% → 92%
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
7.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jonathon Brooks for 7 yds to the HOU 48Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+8
7.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 8 yds to the HOU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
7.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 10 yds to the HOU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
7.3%
Jonathon Brooks run for 1 yd to the HOU 29Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+2
7.3%
Jonathon Brooks run for 2 yds to the HOU 27Similar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+1
7.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to CJ Baxter for 1 yd to the HOU 26Similar
Q2 2:33
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+1
8.1%
Ryan Sanborn pass complete to Bert Auburn for 1 yd to the HOU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:078% → 15%
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
8.1%
Donovan Smith sacked by Ethan Burke for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 24Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+12
8.1%
Parker Jenkins run for 12 yds to the HOU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
8.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Matthew Golden for 3 yds to the HOU 39Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+7
8.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Mike O'Laughlin for 7 yds to the HOU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
8.5%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
8.4%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stacy Sneed for no gain to the HOU 46Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+16
8.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 16 yds to the TEX 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+17
8.7%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 17 yds to the TEX 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
15.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 21 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -8 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
11.6%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Jamaree Caldwell for a loss of 8 yards to the TEX 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14TD
6 plays · 49 yds · 2:2415% → 28%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
14.8%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+11
14.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 11 yds to the TEX 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
14.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 2 yds to the TEX 36Similar
Q3 13:29
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+35
15.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 35 yds to the TEX 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
16.4%
Parker Jenkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the TEX 3Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
27.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Matthew Golden for 3 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15DOWNS
12 plays · 31 yds · 4:1279% → 77%
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
21.5%
Jonathon Brooks run for 8 yds to the TEX 33Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
20.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jonathon Brooks for 3 yds to the TEX 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
20.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 6 yds to the TEX 42Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
19.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 3 yds to the TEX 45Similar
Q3 12:29
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
19.9%
Quinn Ewers run for no gain to the TEX 45Similar
Q3 12:29
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+3
20.9%
run for 3 yds to the TEX 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
19.6%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
22.4%
Jonathon Brooks run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 8
50
+6
22.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 6 yds to the HOU 44Similar
Q3 8:17
4TH & 2
OPP 44
0
23.5%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16FUMBLE
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:4131% → 30%
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
30.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 3 yds to the HOU 47Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
30.8%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 7
OWN 47
-9
30.1%
Donovan Smith sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the HOU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 17FG
11 plays · 31 yds · 4:1978% → 78%
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-4
22.4%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Nelson Ceaser for a loss of 4 yards to the HOU 42Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 14
OPP 42
+1
23.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jonathon Brooks for 1 yd to the HOU 41Similar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 13
OPP 41
+18
24.5%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jonathon Brooks for 18 yds to the HOU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
21.1%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+4
21.5%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jonathon Brooks for 4 yds to the HOU 19Similar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+4
22.2%
Quinn Ewers run for 4 yds to the HOU 15Similar
Q3 7:36
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+5
23.5%
run for 5 yds to the HOU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
21.1%
Jonathon Brooks run for 3 yds to the HOU 7Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
21.1%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
22.2%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
21.6%
Bert Auburn 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18INT
12 plays · 47 yds · 5:3625% → 35%
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
24.6%
Parker Jenkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the HOU 23Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+1
24.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Parker Jenkins for 1 yd to the HOU 24Similar
Q3 3:17
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+16
22.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 16 yds to the HOU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
27.8%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
26.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 3 yds to the HOU 43Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+17
27.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 17 yds to the TEX 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
31.6%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+9
31.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Matt Byrnes for 9 yds to the TEX 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 31
0
31.2%
Donovan Smith run for no gain to the TEX 31Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+3
29.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 3 yds to the TEX 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
33.7%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
34.6%
Donovan Smith pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0974% → 72%
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
26.5%
Jonathon Brooks run for 4 yds to the TEX 24Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
25.9%
Jonathon Brooks run for 3 yds to the TEX 27Similar
Q4 12:41
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
26.2%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:32
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
27.6%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 59 yds , returns for no gain to the HOU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20FG
7 plays · 68 yds · 3:4927% → 46%
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
26.8%
Parker Jenkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 8Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 11
OWN 8
+4
26.5%
Donovan Smith run for 4 yds to the HOU 12Similar
Q4 11:32
3RD & 7
OWN 12
+66
26.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 51 yds to the TEX 37 for a 1ST down Texas Penalty, Personal Foul (Anthony Hill Jr.) to the TEX 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
35.9%
Donovan Smith run for 2 yds to the TEX 20Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 8
OPP 20
-15
35.9%
Houston Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Matthew Golden) to the TEX 28Similar
Q4 11:32
3RD & 16
OPP 28
+5
30.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 5 yds to the TEX 23Similar
Q4 7:43
4TH & 11
OPP 23
+40
46.4%
Jack Martin 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21TD
6 plays · 53 yds · 1:5863% → 90%
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
36.6%
Jonathon Brooks run for 6 yds to the HOU 47Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+15
35.4%
Jonathon Brooks run for 15 yds to the HOU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
33.8%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 7 yds to the HOU 25Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+7
33.2%
Jonathon Brooks run for 7 yds to the HOU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
33.2%
Jonathon Brooks run for 2 yds to the HOU 16Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+16
9.7%
CJ Baxter run for 16 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22DOWNS
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:3417% → 19%
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
17.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Matthew Golden for 24 yds to the HOU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
20.6%
Parker Jenkins run for 8 yds to the TEX 43Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 2
OPP 43
0
22.5%
Parker Jenkins run for no gain to the TEX 43Similar
Q4 5:37
3RD & 2
OPP 43
0
22.4%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:37
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+9
20.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Matthew Golden for 9 yds to the TEX 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
23.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 15 yds to the TEX 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
23.8%
Parker Jenkins run for 2 yds to the TEX 17Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+7
23.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Mike O'Laughlin for 7 yds to the TEX 10Similar
Q4 1:57
3RD & 1
OPP 10
0
21.8%
Stacy Sneed run for no gain to the TEX 10Similar
Q4 1:03
4TH & 1
OPP 10
0
19.2%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 1:0394% → 95%
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
5.6%
[NH] Kneel down by MURPHY, Maalik at UT9 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 9
0
5.3%
[NH] Kneel down by MURPHY, Maalik at UT8 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:37
CJ Baxter run for 16 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)
-23.5
FG · Q4 7:43
Jack Martin 40 yd FG GOOD
+16.4
TD · Q3 12:29
Donovan Smith pass complete to Matthew Golden for 3 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)
+11.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com