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BAY

Baylor 32 at Cincinnati 29

CIN
2023 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2023 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 14:56 · Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 7 yds to the BAY 29 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsOne-score game
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 6Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0One-score game+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:17: Jake Roberts 6 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — BAY win probability +10.0 pts (now 73%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 5:00: Isaiah Hankins 46 Yd Field Goal — BAY win probability +8.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:20: Myles Montgomery 1 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick) — CIN win probability +13.2 pts (now 32%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 7:01: Isaiah Hankins 43 Yd Field Goal — BAY win probability +8.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:03: Xzavier Henderson 29 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Emory Jones Pass to Evan Prater for Two-Point Conversion) — CIN win probability +32.8 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 7 of 7BAY made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 14:56CIN 4th & 4 at BAY 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    58.5%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    58.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:42CIN 4th & 1 at BAY 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    58.9%−0.2
    75% to make
    Punt
    58.3%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:38BAY 4th & 13 at BAY 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:57CIN 4th & 5 at CIN 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:55BAY 4th & 13 at CIN 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.2%
    42% to make
    Punt
    41.1%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:02CIN 4th & 9 at CIN 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−0.8
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:18BAY 4th & 15 at CIN 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−1.5
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    40.4%−5.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:10BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 49, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    53.5%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:05BAY 4th & 2 at CIN 40, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    55.5%−1.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    55.0%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:26CIN 4th & 14 at CIN 36, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−1.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:34CIN 4th & 3 at BAY 15, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    32.1%−0.5
    83% to make
    Punt
    24.4%−8.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:00BAY 4th & 4 at CIN 29, up 12
    Close callKicked a field goal · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.5%−0.9
    58% to make
    Punt
    66.8%−8.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:01BAY 4th & 23 at CIN 26, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%−4.1
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.0%
    64% to make
    Punt
    77.8%−8.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:19BAY 4th & 18 at BAY 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−6.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:25CIN 4th & 11 at CIN 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.9%
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.9%−3.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3BAY made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 14:55CIN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:16BAY Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:17BAY Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    68.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    68.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:20CIN Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:03CIN Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.2 ptsWent for two · converted
    Kick
    25.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    24.0%−1.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 59 yds · 4:1450% → 51%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
49.8%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the CIN 20Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+38
49.8%
Corey Kiner run for 38 yds to the BAY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
49.8%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 4 yds to the BAY 38Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+2
49.8%
Emory Jones run for 2 yds to the BAY 36Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 4
OPP 36
0
49.8%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:56
4TH & 4
OPP 36
+7
49.8%
Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 7 yds to the BAY 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
49.8%
Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the BAY 25Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 6
OPP 25
0
49.8%
Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for no gain to the BAY 25Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+5
49.8%
Emory Jones run for 5 yds to the BAY 20Similar
Q1 10:42
4TH & 1
OPP 20
-3
50.8%
Emory Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the BAY 23 Emory Jones fumbled, recovered by CIN Emory JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0450% → 49%
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
50.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 11 yds to the BAY 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
50.4%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-3
50.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for a loss of 3 yards to the BAY 31Similar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 13
OWN 31
0
50.7%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:38
4TH & 13
OWN 31
0
51.1%
Palmer Williams punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the CIN 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4151% → 50%
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
50.8%
Cincinnati Penalty, False Start (Dartanyan Tinsley) to the CIN 16Similar
Q1 9:38
1ST & 15
OWN 16
+4
50.7%
Emory Jones pass complete to Aaron Turner for 4 yds to the CIN 20Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+6
50.7%
Corey Kiner run for 6 yds to the CIN 26Similar
Q1 9:38
3RD & 5
OWN 26
0
50.6%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:57
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
50.4%
Mason Fletcher punt for 48 yds, returned by Josh Cameron for 41 yds to the CIN 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4FG
5 plays · -3 yds · 2:0250% → 49%
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
49.9%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-4
49.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Richard Reese for a loss of 4 yards to the CIN 37Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 14
OPP 37
-5
50.7%
Baylor Penalty, False Start (Gavin Byers) to the CIN 42Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 19
OPP 42
+6
50.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 6 yds to the CIN 36Similar
Q1 5:55
4TH & 13
OPP 36
+54
50.8%
Isaiah Hankins 54 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:0050% → 56%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.9%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
49.8%
Emory Jones run for 6 yds to the CIN 31Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
49.7%
Emory Jones run for 5 yds to the CIN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
50.2%
Emory Jones run for 5 yds to the CIN 41Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+7
50.8%
Myles Montgomery run for 7 yds to the CIN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
50.9%
Emory Jones run for 3 yds to the BAY 49Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+3
51.1%
Myles Montgomery run for 3 yds to the BAY 46Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+9
50.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 9 yds to the BAY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
51.1%
Emory Jones run for 3 yds to the BAY 34Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+14
51.5%
Myles Montgomery run for 14 yds to the BAY 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
51.4%
Myles Montgomery run for a loss of 2 yards to the BAY 22Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+14
51.4%
Corey Kiner run for 14 yds to the BAY 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
52.4%
Emory Jones run for 4 yds to the BAY 4Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
55.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 4 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3946% → 53%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+41
54.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 41 yds to the CIN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
52.0%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+14
52.0%
Blake Shapen run for 14 yds to the CIN 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
51.8%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+12
52.0%
Monaray Baldwin run for 12 yds to the CIN 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
51.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 5 yds to the CIN 3Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
47.2%
Blake Shapen run for 3 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:0750% → 49%
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
50.0%
Corey Kiner run for 11 yds to the CIN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
50.6%
Corey Kiner run for 6 yds to the CIN 42Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
51.8%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the CIN 45Similar
Q2 12:09
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-3
51.3%
Corey Kiner run for a loss of 3 yards to the CIN 42 Corey Kiner fumbled, recovered by CIN John WilliamsSimilar
Q2 12:09
4TH & 4
OWN 42
-5
49.8%
Cincinnati Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the CIN 37Similar
Q2 10:02
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
48.9%
punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8FG
8 plays · 47 yds · 2:4451% → 51%
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
49.2%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
49.5%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:02
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+11
50.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelsey Johnson for 11 yds to the BAY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+41
48.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 41 yds to the CIN 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 14
OPP 24
-1
47.4%
Josh Cameron run for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 25Similar
Q2 10:02
3RD & 15
OPP 25
0
48.7%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-4
46.9%
Blake Shapen run for a loss of 4 yards to the CIN 24 Blake Shapen fumbled, recovered by BAY Blake ShapenSimilar
Q2 7:18
4TH & 15
OPP 25
+43
49.1%
Isaiah Hankins 43 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1942% → 47%
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
42.4%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 30 yds to the BAY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
45.1%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the BAY 44Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+6
45.0%
Myles Montgomery run for 6 yds to the BAY 38Similar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+38
46.7%
Myles Montgomery 38 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10DOWNS
5 plays · 22 yds · 2:4958% → 60%
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
42.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 16 yds to the BAY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
40.5%
Richard Reese run for 4 yds to the BAY 45Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+5
40.5%
Blake Shapen run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 1
50
-1
40.4%
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 49Similar
Q2 3:10
4TH & 2
OWN 49
-2
40.5%
Blake Shapen sacked by Deshawn Pace for a loss of 2 yards to the BAY 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -29 yds · 1:2144% → 42%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 24
OWN 38
+1
44.1%
Myles Montgomery run for 1 yd to the CIN 39Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 23
OWN 39
-8
44.0%
Emory Jones sacked by Tre Emory and TJ Franklin for a loss of 8 yards to the CIN 31Similar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 31
OWN 31
-7
42.4%
Emory Jones sacked by Gabe Hall for a loss of 7 yards to the CIN 24Similar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 9
OPP 47
-15
46.7%
Cincinnati Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the CIN 38Similar
Q2 1:49
4TH & 38
OWN 24
0
42.1%
punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12DOWNS
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:5462% → 61%
Q2 1:59
3RD & 2
OPP 40
0
38.0%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
40.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 16 yds to the CIN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
38.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jake Roberts for 5 yds to the CIN 43Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+3
37.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 3 yds to the CIN 40Similar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 2
OPP 40
0
39.0%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:3946% → 42%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
45.7%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for a loss of 3 yards to the CIN 37Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 13
OWN 37
0
43.7%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 13
OWN 37
-1
42.8%
Emory Jones pass complete to Corey Kiner for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 36Similar
Q2 0:26
4TH & 14
OWN 36
0
42.1%
Mason Fletcher punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:2658% → 59%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
41.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 11 yds to the BAY 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
40.9%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
41.2%
[NH] Kneel down by BAY at BAY25 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:4360% → 73%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
39.8%
Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the BAY 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
39.8%
Richard Reese run for 7 yds to the BAY 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
39.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelsey Johnson for 6 yds to the BAY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+55
38.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 55 yds to the CIN 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
36.9%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
26.8%
Jake Roberts 6 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 60 yds · 2:4330% → 30%
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
30.3%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the CIN 27Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+40
30.5%
Corey Kiner run for 40 yds to the BAY 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
33.6%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the BAY 32Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+10
33.5%
Emory Jones run for 10 yds to the BAY 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
32.7%
Braden Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
32.6%
Corey Kiner run for no gain to the BAY 22Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+7
31.0%
Emory Jones run for 7 yds to the BAY 15Similar
Q3 9:34
4TH & 3
OPP 15
0
29.8%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17FG
10 plays · 56 yds · 4:3473% → 84%
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
27.1%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+7
27.2%
Dominic Richardson run for 7 yds to the BAY 22Similar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+8
27.4%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 8 yds to the BAY 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
26.6%
Baylor Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BAY 25Similar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+20
27.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 20 yds to the BAY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+20
25.1%
Dominic Richardson run for 20 yds to the CIN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
24.5%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+1
24.6%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 1 yd to the CIN 34Similar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+5
25.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 5 yds to the CIN 29Similar
Q3 5:00
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+46
16.4%
Isaiah Hankins 46 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18TD
12 plays · 62 yds · 5:3220% → 32%
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
20.2%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
19.6%
Myles Montgomery run for no gain to the CIN 38Similar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+12
19.1%
Emory Jones pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
50
+3
20.9%
Emory Jones run for 3 yds to the BAY 47Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+2
21.3%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 2 yds to the BAY 45Similar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+13
21.1%
Emory Jones pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 13 yds to the BAY 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
21.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Aaron Turner for 3 yds to the BAY 29Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+4
22.2%
Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the BAY 25Similar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+9
21.7%
Emory Jones run for 9 yds to the BAY 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
19.0%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 12 yds to the BAY 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
19.0%
Emory Jones run for 3 yds to the BAY 1Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
32.3%
Myles Montgomery 1 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19FG
15 plays · 57 yds · 7:1476% → 88%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
23.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the BAY 21Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+7
23.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 7 yds to the BAY 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-4
23.1%
Blake Shapen sacked by Jowon Briggs for a loss of 4 yards to the BAY 24Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 14
OWN 24
+17
24.3%
Blake Shapen run for 17 yds to the BAY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
21.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jake Roberts for 5 yds to the BAY 46Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+3
21.4%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the BAY 49Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+2
21.8%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 2 yds to the CIN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
20.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 13 yds to the CIN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
20.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jake Roberts for 8 yds to the CIN 28Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+4
19.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the CIN 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
19.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 11 yds to the CIN 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
19.8%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
19.8%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
20.9%
Baylor Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Blake Shapen) to the CIN 26Similar
Q4 7:01
4TH & 23
OPP 26
+43
12.4%
Isaiah Hankins 43 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5813% → 46%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
13.2%
MONTGOMERY, Myles rush to the right for a gain of 14 yards to the CIN25 (JENKINS, Caden), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN. PENALTY BAY Holding on HALL, Gabe CIN Holding on KANDRA, Luke , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
13.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 7 yds to the CIN 32Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
14.4%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
13.1%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 4 yds to the CIN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
14.0%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+35
13.6%
Myles Montgomery run for 35 yds to the BAY 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
46.4%
Xzavier Henderson 29 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Emory Jones Pass to Evan Prater for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 2:4471% → 77%
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.9%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
29.2%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 1 yd to the BAY 26Similar
Q4 5:03
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+24
30.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
50
+1
24.4%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the CIN 49Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 9
OPP 49
-5
24.5%
Baylor Penalty, False Start (Campbell Barrington) to the BAY 46Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 14
OWN 46
-1
27.6%
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 45Similar
Q4 2:27
3RD & 15
OWN 45
-3
20.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for a loss of 3 yards to the BAY 42Similar
Q4 2:19
4TH & 18
OWN 42
0
22.9%
Palmer Williams punt for 51 yds, downed at the CIN 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 35 yds · 0:5430% → 10%
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+10
29.7%
Emory Jones run for 10 yds to the CIN 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
31.4%
Emory Jones pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 9 yds to the CIN 26Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+17
34.1%
Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 17 yds to the CIN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
36.1%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-1
32.2%
Emory Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 42Similar
Q4 1:34
3RD & 11
OWN 42
0
30.0%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:25
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
26.0%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
9.9%
Cincinnati Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the CIN 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:4095% → 95%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-4
5.4%
Blake Shapen run for a loss of 4 yards to the CIN 31Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 14
OPP 31
0
5.5%
[NH] Kneel down by BAY at CIN33 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:03
Xzavier Henderson 29 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Emory Jones Pass to Evan Prater for Two-Point Conversion)
+32.8
TD · Q4 14:20
Myles Montgomery 1 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick)
+13.2
TD · Q3 12:17
Jake Roberts 6 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-10
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com