Try the model
KSU

Kansas State 38 at Texas Tech 21

TTU
2023 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2023 · Jones AT&T Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreKSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:45 · Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the TTU 20 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 135Home team on offense−18.7Score differential−7.0Pregame prior+1.5Garbage-time factor−6.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:23: Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK) — TTU win probability +14.4 pts (now 56%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q3 7:31: Jake Strong pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 8 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK) — TTU win probability +19.6 pts (now 70%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:24: Avery Johnson run for 30 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK) — KSU win probability +19.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:06: Avery Johnson run for 11 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK) — KSU win probability +23.3 pts (now 78%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:58: Avery Johnson run for 3 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK) — KSU win probability +12.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9KSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 11:28KSU 4th & 5 at TTU 29, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.0%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    44.7%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:27TTU 4th & 11 at TTU 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:21KSU 4th & 9 at KSU 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:09TTU 4th & 5 at TTU 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:11TTU 4th & 2 at midfield, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    47.8%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:53TTU 4th & 1 at KSU 1, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    43.6%−1.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    39.6%−5.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:59KSU 4th & 5 at KSU 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:32TTU 4th & 11 at TTU 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−1.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:36KSU 4th & 12 at KSU 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:04TTU 4th & 6 at TTU 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:13TTU 4th & 2 at TTU 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    50.1%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:35KSU 4th & 6 at TTU 41, up 3
    Close callPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    50.7%−1.7
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.5%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:31KSU 4th & 1 at TTU 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    33.6%−4.0
    30% to make
    Punt
    34.5%−3.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:45KSU 4th & 8 at KSU 37, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−1.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:45TTU 4th & 1 at TTU 17, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.7%−1.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:34TTU 4th & 1 at KSU 29, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    3.0%−0.4
    58% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3KSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 2:54KSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:53TTU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:20KSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:23TTU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:31TTU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:24KSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:06KSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:58KSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KSUDrive 1FG
8 plays · 50 yds · 3:3243% → 43%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
56.7%
DJ Giddens run for 5 yds to the KSU 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+7
56.7%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 7 yds to the KSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+22
56.7%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 22 yds to the TTU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
56.7%
DJ Giddens run for 11 yds to the TTU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
56.7%
DJ Giddens run for 5 yds to the TTU 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 29
0
56.7%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
56.7%
Will Howard run for no gain to the TTU 29Similar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+47
56.6%
Chris Tennant 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 3:0157% → 56%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
56.7%
Tahj Brooks run for 1 yd to the TTU 26Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
56.6%
Behren Morton run for no gain to the TTU 26Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
56.5%
Behren Morton run for 10 yds to the TTU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
56.8%
Tahj Brooks run for no gain to the TTU 36Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
56.7%
Tahj Brooks run for 4 yds to the TTU 40Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-5
56.7%
Texas Tech Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TTU 35Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
56.5%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:27
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
55.9%
Austin McNamara punt for 42 yds , Phillip Brooks returns for no gain to the KSU 35 Kansas State Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the KSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:0644% → 43%
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
56.5%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 5 yds to the KSU 15Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+18
56.5%
DJ Giddens run for 18 yds to the KSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
56.3%
DJ Giddens run for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 32Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+2
56.5%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 2 yds to the KSU 34Similar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
56.7%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:21
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
56.8%
Jack Blumer punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1256% → 55%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
56.1%
Behren Morton pass complete to Drae McCray for a loss of 7 yards to the TTU 8Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 17
OWN 8
+12
56.0%
Behren Morton pass complete to Tahj Brooks for 12 yds to the TTU 20Similar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 5
OWN 20
0
55.7%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:09
4TH & 5
OWN 20
0
55.1%
Austin McNamara punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KSU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5TD
5 plays · 59 yds · 2:1544% → 50%
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
55.6%
Avery Johnson run for 15 yds to the TTU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
55.4%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 11 yds to the TTU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+18
55.1%
Treshaun Ward run for 18 yds to the TTU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
55.0%
Keagan Johnson run for 13 yds to the TTU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
50.5%
Avery Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:0151% → 57%
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
50.8%
Tahj Brooks run for 9 yds to the TTU 34Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
51.3%
Behren Morton pass complete to Jayden York for 8 yds to the TTU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
51.5%
Tahj Brooks run for 4 yds to the TTU 46Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+4
50.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:11
3RD & 2
50
0
50.9%
Tahj Brooks run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:11
4TH & 2
50
+7
50.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to Baylor Cupp for 7 yds to the KSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
50.7%
Behren Morton pass complete to Jordan Brown for 8 yds to the KSU 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 35
-3
51.5%
Behren Morton sacked by Austin Romaine for a loss of 3 yards to the KSU 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+5
50.5%
Behren Morton run for 5 yds to the KSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+31
51.5%
Behren Morton pass complete to Xavier White for 31 yds to the KSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
51.5%
Behren Morton pass complete to Xavier White for 1 yd to the KSU 1Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
51.5%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
50.7%
Behren Morton pass complete to Xavier White for no gain to the KSU 1Similar
Q2 11:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
56.8%
Behren Morton run for 1 yd for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5445% → 45%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
54.8%
DJ Giddens run for 1 yd to the KSU 26Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
54.8%
DJ Giddens run for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 25Similar
Q2 11:53
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
55.4%
Avery Johnson pass complete to DJ Giddens for 5 yds to the KSU 30Similar
Q2 9:59
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
55.5%
Jack Blumer punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2755% → 53%
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
55.3%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
55.2%
Behren Morton pass complete to Drae McCray for 4 yds to the TTU 35Similar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 6
OWN 35
-5
54.6%
Behren Morton sacked by Khalid Duke for a loss of 5 yards to the TTU 30Similar
Q2 8:32
4TH & 11
OWN 30
0
53.4%
Austin McNamara punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:5646% → 46%
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
54.0%
DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the KSU 31Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+8
53.6%
Will Howard pass complete to RJ Garcia II for 8 yds to the KSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
52.7%
HOWARD, Will pass to the left incomplete intended for JACKSON, Jadon thrown to the TTU49. PENALTY TTU Holding on DUNLAP, Malik enforced 10 yards from the KSU39 to the KSU49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
52.4%
DJ Giddens run for 3 yds to the TTU 48Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+3
52.2%
Treshaun Ward run for 3 yds to the TTU 45Similar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 4
OPP 45
-8
52.5%
Will Howard sacked by Jaylon Hutchings and Tony Bradford Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the KSU 47Similar
Q2 5:36
4TH & 12
OWN 47
0
53.6%
Jack Blumer punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:3254% → 53%
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
53.5%
Cam'Ron Valdez run for 5 yds to the TTU 24Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+15
53.9%
Behren Morton pass complete to Cam'Ron Valdez for 15 yds to the TTU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
54.7%
Cam'Ron Valdez run for 1 yd to the TTU 40Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+3
54.7%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the TTU 43Similar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
54.9%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:04
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
53.1%
Austin McNamara punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 11TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:4548% → 65%
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
52.4%
DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the KSU 24Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+42
52.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 42 yds to the TTU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
49.2%
DJ Giddens run for 3 yds to the TTU 31Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+5
46.3%
Avery Johnson run for 5 yds to the TTU 26Similar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+16
47.5%
Treshaun Ward run for 16 yds to the TTU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
44.2%
Avery Johnson run for 5 yds to the TTU 5Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
35.2%
Avery Johnson run for 5 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12TD
7 plays · 89 yds · 0:5437% → 56%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
37.0%
Behren Morton pass complete to Cam'Ron Valdez for 9 yds to the TTU 20Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+15
37.4%
Kansas State Penalty, Targeting on CLIFTON, Jake enforced (Jake Clifton) to the TTU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
38.3%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+30
38.1%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 30 yds to the KSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
41.3%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+30
41.1%
Tahj Brooks run for 30 yds to the KSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
55.5%
Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.6%
[NHSG] Kneel down by HOWARD, Will at KSU24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 14DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:4752% → 52%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
51.6%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the TTU 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+10
51.8%
Jake Strong pass complete to Tahj Brooks for 10 yds to the TTU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
52.6%
Jake Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-5
52.3%
Texas Tech Penalty, False Start (Caleb Rogers) to the TTU 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 32
0
51.3%
Jake Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 32
+13
50.0%
Tahj Brooks run for 13 yds to the TTU 45Similar
Q3 13:13
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
51.7%
Jake Strong pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3854% → 51%
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
46.5%
DJ Giddens run for 1 yd to the TTU 44Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
46.6%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+8
47.3%
Will Howard run for 8 yds to the TTU 36Similar
Q3 13:13
4TH & 1
OPP 36
-5
48.6%
Kansas State Penalty, False Start (DJ Giddens) to the TTU 41Similar
Q3 11:35
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
49.0%
Jack Blumer punt for 40 yds, downed at the TTU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 16TD
10 plays · 99 yds · 4:0449% → 70%
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
49.4%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the TTU 4Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+13
49.3%
Jake Strong pass complete to Myles Price for 13 yds to the TTU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
50.0%
Tahj Brooks run for 9 yds to the TTU 26Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+3
52.2%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the TTU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+54
52.4%
Jake Strong run for 54 yds to the KSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
55.5%
Jake Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
55.5%
Jake Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
50.4%
Cam'Ron Valdez run for 2 yds to the TTU 31Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+7
50.5%
Jake Strong pass complete to Jordan Brown for 7 yds to the TTU 38Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
70.1%
Jake Strong pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 8 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 17TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:0734% → 60%
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
65.8%
Treshaun Ward run for 5 yds to the KSU 30Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
64.8%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 4 yds to the KSU 34Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+15
64.6%
QB Keeper JOHNSON, Avery rush to the left for no gain to the KSU34 (LINTON, Steve). PENALTY TTU Face mask on LINTON, Steve enforced 15 yards from the KSU34 to the KSU49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
62.0%
BROOKS, Phillip rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the TTU49 (DUNLAP, Malik). PENALTY KSU Holding on SINNOTT, Ben enforced 10 yards from the KSU49 to the KSU39 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:31
1ST & 20
OWN 39
+5
65.3%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 5 yds to the KSU 44Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 15
OWN 44
+14
65.1%
Treshaun Ward run for 14 yds to the TTU 42Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 1
OPP 42
0
61.5%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:31
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+12
63.5%
Treshaun Ward run for 12 yds to the TTU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
60.3%
Avery Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TTU 31Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+1
59.3%
Treshaun Ward run for 1 yd to the TTU 30Similar
Q3 2:24
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+30
39.8%
Avery Johnson run for 30 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 18INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
45.4%
Jake Strong pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 19TD
1 play · 11 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
22.1%
Avery Johnson run for 11 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 20INT
7 plays · 43 yds · 1:4825% → 28%
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
25.1%
Jake Strong pass complete to Myles Price for 8 yds to the TTU 22Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+6
26.0%
Jake Strong pass complete to Myles Price for 6 yds to the TTU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
26.0%
Jake Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+16
25.3%
Jake Strong pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 16 yds to the TTU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
27.8%
Jake Strong pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 9 yds to the KSU 47Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+4
29.3%
Tahj Brooks run for 4 yds to the KSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
28.0%
Jake Strong pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1576% → 74%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
23.8%
QB Keeper JOHNSON, Avery rush up the middle for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU34 (ADEDIRE, Joseph). PENALTY Before the snap, KSU False Start on SINNOTT, Ben enforced 5 yards from the end of the play at the KSU34 to the KSU29. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 29
-2
25.6%
Avery Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the KSU 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 27
+10
26.2%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 10 yds to the KSU 37Similar
Q4 13:45
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
25.7%
Jack Blumer punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Myles Price at the TTU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 22INT
8 plays · 74 yds · 2:4822% → 26%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
21.7%
Jake Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
21.5%
Jake Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 10
OWN 8
+9
20.6%
Jake Strong pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 9 yds to the TTU 17Similar
Q4 13:45
4TH & 1
OWN 17
+3
21.0%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the TTU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+43
22.6%
Jake Strong pass complete to Coy Eakin for 43 yds to the KSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
26.5%
Tahj Brooks run for 7 yds to the KSU 30Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+12
28.4%
Jake Strong pass complete to Coy Eakin for 12 yds to the KSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
25.5%
Jake Strong pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 23TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 5:5981% → 97%
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
18.9%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 10 yds to the KSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
18.1%
Treshaun Ward run for 6 yds to the KSU 36Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+3
17.4%
Treshaun Ward run for 3 yds to the KSU 39Similar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+11
17.4%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
50
+21
16.5%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 21 yds to the TTU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
15.6%
Avery Johnson run for 4 yds to the TTU 25Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+10
15.6%
Treshaun Ward run for 10 yds to the TTU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
15.6%
Treshaun Ward run for 9 yds to the TTU 6Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+3
15.6%
Treshaun Ward run for 3 yds to the TTU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
3.2%
Avery Johnson run for 3 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 24DOWNS
9 plays · 46 yds · 2:243% → 3%
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
3.4%
Cam'Ron Valdez run for 14 yds to the TTU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
3.5%
Cam'Ron Valdez run for no gain to the TTU 39Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+12
3.5%
Jake Strong pass complete to Coy Eakin for 12 yds to the KSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
3.7%
Jake Strong pass complete to Coy Eakin for 5 yds to the KSU 44Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+6
3.9%
Jake Strong pass complete to Myles Price for 6 yds to the KSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
3.8%
Jake Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
3.8%
Jake Strong pass complete to Jordan Brown for 3 yds to the KSU 35Similar
Q4 4:58
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+6
4.1%
Jake Strong pass complete to Jordan Brown for 6 yds to the KSU 29Similar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 1
OPP 29
0
3.4%
Cam'Ron Valdez run for no gain to the KSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 25END OF GAME
9 plays · 31 yds · 2:3498% → 99%
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
2.5%
Treshaun Ward run for 14 yds to the KSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
2.2%
Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds to the KSU 45Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+2
1.2%
Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds to the KSU 47Similar
Q4 1:33
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+14
1.2%
Avery Johnson run for 14 yds to the TTU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
1.2%
[NHSG] Kneel down by KSU at TTU40 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 40
0
1.0%
[NHSG] Kneel down by KSU at TTU40 (team loss of 0), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:06
Avery Johnson run for 11 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)
-23.3
TD · Q3 7:31
Jake Strong pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 8 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)
+19.6
TD · Q3 2:24
Avery Johnson run for 30 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)
-19.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com