Try the model
BYU

BYU 11 at TCU 44

TCU
2023 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2023 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:06 · Ryan Rehkow punt for 40 yds, downed at the TCU 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 9Home team on offense+0.5Score differential+0.1Pregame prior+15.7Garbage-time factor+0.0Blowout margin+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 13:15: Griffin Kell 40 yd FG GOOD — TCU win probability +3.0 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:09: Josh Hoover pass complete to Jared Wiley for 7 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +4.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:15: Keelan Marion run for 3 yds for a TD (Kedon Slovis pass to Chase Roberts for Two-Point Conversion) — BYU win probability +8.8 pts (now 20%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:40: Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 7 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +6.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:55: Josh Hoover pass complete to Warren Thompson for 14 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +4.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5BYU made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 12:06BYU 4th & 7 at BYU 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:55BYU 4th & 20 at BYU 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−1.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:26TCU 4th & 1 at TCU 31, up 14
    Close callPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:19BYU 4th & 9 at BYU 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:39TCU 4th & 1 at BYU 12, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    72.0%−1.7
    86% to make
    Punt
    66.8%−7.0
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:00BYU 4th & 5 at BYU 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:15TCU 4th & 3 at BYU 22, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.9%−0.4
    72% to make
    Punt
    70.2%−5.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:40BYU 4th & 8 at BYU 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−1.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:53BYU 4th & 5 at BYU 47, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:02BYU 4th & 2 at BYU 33, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:29BYU 4th & 24 at TCU 29, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:43TCU 4th & 7 at BYU 17, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.1%
    80% to make
    Punt
    96.4%−2.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:20BYU 4th & 1 at TCU 15, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:44BYU 4th & 4 at TCU 39, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:18TCU 4th & 8 at BYU 29, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    58% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:17BYU 4th & 10 at BYU 35, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5BYU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 13:40TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:09TCU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:09TCU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:15BYU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    16.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    16.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:40TCU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:55TCU Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BYUDrive 1INT TD
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1434% → 33%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
66.5%
LJ Martin run for 6 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
66.5%
LJ Martin run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 30Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-35
66.9%
Kedon Slovis pass intercepted for a TD Millard Bradford return for 35 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2833% → 33%
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.9%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Parker KingstonSimilar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
66.9%
LJ Martin run for 2 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q1 12:47
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+1
67.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Isaac Rex for 1 yd to the BYU 28Similar
Q1 12:06
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
67.4%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 40 yds, downed at the TCU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 1:5267% → 70%
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
67.3%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
67.3%
Emani Bailey run for 4 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 6
OWN 36
-5
67.4%
Hoover, Josh pass complete to Wright, Dylan for 12 yards to the TCU48, PENALTY TCU ineligible downfield on pass (Wiley, Jared) 5 yards to the TCU31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:16
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+13
67.3%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 13 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
67.9%
Emani Bailey run for 3 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
68.0%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Dylan WrightSimilar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+11
67.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 11 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
69.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 42 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4FUMBLE
6 plays · 0 yds · 2:0931% → 29%
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
69.1%
LJ Martin run for 10 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
69.5%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
69.5%
LJ Martin run for no gain to the BYU 35Similar
Q1 8:39
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-10
70.0%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Jamoi Hodge for a loss of 10 yards to the BYU 25Similar
Q1 7:55
4TH & 20
OWN 25
+2
70.8%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 55 yds , JP Richardson returns for 2 yds to the TCU 22 JP Richardson fumbled, recovered by TCU JP RichardsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2571% → 72%
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
71.3%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+9
71.3%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 9 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 1
OWN 31
0
71.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Chase Curtis for no gain to the TCU 31Similar
Q1 6:26
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
71.9%
Jordy Sandy punt for 44 yds , Parker Kingston returns for no gain to the BYU 31 BYU Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the BYU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:0229% → 28%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
71.5%
LJ Martin run for no gain to the BYU 15Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+13
71.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Chase Roberts for 13 yds to the BYU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
71.8%
LJ Martin run for 1 yd to the BYU 29Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
72.2%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Kody EppsSimilar
Q1 4:29
3RD & 9
OWN 29
0
72.3%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:19
4TH & 9
OWN 29
+30
72.5%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 45 yds BYU Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Jacob Boren) to the TCU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7DOWNS
11 plays · 47 yds · 3:3574% → 75%
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
73.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jared Wiley for 1 yd to the TCU 42Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+2
74.1%
Emani Bailey run for 2 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+14
74.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JoJo Earle for 14 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
74.7%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Dylan WrightSimilar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+11
74.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 11 yds to the BYU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
75.0%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 9 yds to the BYU 22Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+1
75.0%
Emani Bailey run for 1 yd to the BYU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
75.3%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JoJo Earle for 5 yds to the BYU 16Similar
Q1 1:27
2ND & 5
OPP 16
0
75.6%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Warren ThompsonSimilar
Q1 1:21
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+4
75.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jack Bech for 4 yds to the BYU 12Similar
Q1 0:39
4TH & 1
OPP 12
0
75.3%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jack BechSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:3326% → 25%
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
74.0%
Darius Lassiter run for 5 yds to the BYU 17Similar
Q1 0:11
2ND & 5
OWN 17
0
74.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Keanu HillSimilar
Q1 0:03
3RD & 5
OWN 17
0
74.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Darius LassiterSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 5
OWN 17
0
74.6%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9FG
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:3977% → 80%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
76.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for no gain to the BYU 43Similar
Q2 14:31
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+14
76.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 14 yds to the BYU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
77.0%
Trey Sanders run for 5 yds to the BYU 24Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+2
77.2%
Trey Sanders run for 2 yds to the BYU 22Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 3
OPP 22
0
77.1%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q2 13:15
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+40
80.0%
Griffin Kell 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2521% → 20%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
78.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Parker KingstonSimilar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+1
79.0%
LJ Martin run for 1 yd to the BYU 33Similar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+1
79.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to LJ Martin for 1 yd to the BYU 34Similar
Q2 11:40
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
80.2%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 28 yds, downed at the TCU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11INT
3 plays · 40 yds · 0:4082% → 83%
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+25
82.2%
Emani Bailey run for 25 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
82.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Warren Thompson for 15 yds to the BYU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-17
82.8%
Josh Hoover pass intercepted Eddie Heckard return for 17 yds to the BYU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12FUMBLE
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:4720% → 20%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
80.5%
Kedon Slovis run for 2 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
80.7%
Slovis, Kedon pass incomplete to Epps, Kody, PENALTY TCU pass interference (Clark, Bud) 15 yards to the BYU42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU.Similar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
80.3%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Avery Helm for 0 yards to the BYU 42 Kedon Slovis fumbled, forced by Avery Helm, recovered by TCU Jamoi Hodge , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 42 yds · 1:4184% → 89%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
83.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Major Everhart for 11 yds to the BYU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+22
83.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Dylan Wright for 22 yds to the BYU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
83.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jared Wiley for 7 yds to the BYU 2Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
84.4%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jared WileySimilar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 0
OPP 2
-5
84.3%
TCU Penalty, False Start (Dylan Wright) to the BYU 7Similar
Q2 8:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
88.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jared Wiley for 7 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14TD
12 plays · 84 yds · 4:4012% → 20%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+26
87.7%
Miles Davis run for 11 yds to the BYU 27 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Abe Camara) to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
87.8%
Miles Davis run for 5 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 5
OWN 47
0
87.8%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Isaac RexSimilar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
88.1%
Miles Davis run for no gain to the BYU 47Similar
Q2 5:53
4TH & 5
OWN 47
+39
88.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Chase Roberts for 39 yds to the TCU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
87.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Parker Kingston for 7 yds to the TCU 7Similar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+2
88.0%
Miles Davis run for 2 yds to the TCU 5Similar
Q2 4:39
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+1
88.8%
Kedon Slovis run for 1 yd to the TCU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
88.7%
LJ Martin run for 1 yd to the TCU 3Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
80.0%
Keelan Marion run for 3 yds for a TD (Kedon Slovis pass to Chase Roberts for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15TD
11 plays · 81 yds · 2:2786% → 94%
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
85.7%
Emani Bailey run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 18Similar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+8
85.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 8 yds to the TCU 26Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+12
86.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 12 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
87.0%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to JP RichardsonSimilar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+15
87.0%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to JP Richardson for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Crew Wakley) to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+34
87.3%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordyn Bailey for 34 yds to the BYU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
87.5%
Emani Bailey run for 6 yds to the BYU 7Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 4
OPP 7
0
88.0%
Emani Bailey run for no gain to the BYU 7Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+7
93.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 7 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:298% → 8%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
91.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Kody Epps for 7 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
91.1%
Miles Davis run for 1 yd to the BYU 33Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
91.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Kody EppsSimilar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
92.0%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 59 yds, downed at the TCU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
94.2%
TEAM run for no gain to the TCU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18TD
9 plays · 82 yds · 1:5593% → 98%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
92.9%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Dylan WrightSimilar
Q3 14:38
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
93.0%
Emani Bailey run for no gain to the TCU 18Similar
Q3 14:12
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+26
93.0%
Josh Hoover run for 26 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+21
93.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 21 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
93.7%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
93.7%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q3 13:12
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+21
93.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 21 yds to the BYU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
98.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Warren Thompson for 14 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19FG
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:152% → 2%
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
98.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Keanu Hill for 2 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+42
98.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Parker Kingston for 42 yds to the TCU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-13
98.5%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Namdi Obiazor for a loss of 13 yards to the TCU 28 BYU Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Kedon Slovis) to the TCU 28Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 23
OPP 28
-1
98.6%
LJ Martin run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 29Similar
Q3 10:34
3RD & 24
OPP 29
0
98.9%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Chase RobertsSimilar
Q3 10:29
4TH & 24
OPP 29
+46
98.4%
Will Ferrin 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20FG
14 plays · 67 yds · 3:3599% → 99%
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
98.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Emani Bailey for 7 yds to the TCU 23Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+9
98.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Warren Thompson for 9 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
98.9%
Emani Bailey run for 12 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
99.0%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JoJo Earle for 5 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+9
99.1%
Emani Bailey run for 9 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.1%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Blake NowellSimilar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+6
99.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 6 yds to the BYU 36Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+16
99.2%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 16 yds to the BYU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
99.2%
TCU Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the BYU 25Similar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 15
OPP 25
+8
99.2%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordyn Bailey for 8 yds to the BYU 17Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
99.4%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jordyn BaileySimilar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 7
OPP 17
0
99.4%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Cam CookSimilar
Q3 6:43
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+35
99.3%
Griffin Kell 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 21DOWNS
13 plays · 53 yds · 5:111% → 0%
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
99.3%
Miles Davis run for 2 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
99.3%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Darius LassiterSimilar
Q3 5:43
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+10
99.4%
Miles Davis run for 10 yds to the BYU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.2%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Chase RobertsSimilar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+19
99.2%
LJ Martin run for 19 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
99.2%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Keelan MarionSimilar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+13
99.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to LJ Martin for 13 yds to the TCU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-10
99.5%
Slovis, Kedon pass complete to Martin, LJ for 11 yards to the TCU13, PENALTY BYU holding (Rex, Isaac) 10 yards to the TCU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 20
OPP 34
+4
99.6%
Miles Davis run for 4 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 16
OPP 30
+14
99.6%
LJ Martin run for 14 yds to the TCU 16Similar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+1
99.6%
LJ Martin run for 1 yd to the TCU 15Similar
Q3 1:20
4TH & 1
OPP 15
0
99.6%
Kedon Slovis run for no gain to the TCU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22INT
11 plays · 45 yds · 3:51100% → 100%
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
99.6%
Savion Williams run for 6 yds to the TCU 21Similar
Q3 0:43
2ND & 4
OWN 21
0
99.7%
Emani Bailey run for no gain to the TCU 21Similar
Q3 0:15
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+11
99.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 11 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
99.7%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Dylan WrightSimilar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+13
99.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 13 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.8%
Emani Bailey run for no gain to the TCU 45Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
99.8%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to JoJo EarleSimilar
Q4 13:34
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+15
99.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 15 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
99.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jared Wiley for 5 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 5
OPP 35
-5
99.8%
Hoover, Josh pass complete to Wiley, Jared for 7 yards to the BYU28, PENALTY TCU illegal touching (Wiley, Jared) 5 yards to the BYU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
99.8%
Josh Hoover pass intercepted Siale Esera return for no gain to the BYU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 23DOWNS
10 plays · 41 yds · 3:310% → 0%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
99.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Keelan Marion for 1 yd to the BYU 23Similar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 9
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Kody EppsSimilar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+9
99.9%
Slovis, Kedon pass incomplete to Kingston, Parker, PENALTY TCU pass interference (Burdine, Ish) 9 yards to the BYU32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU.Similar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
99.8%
Miles Davis run for 1 yd to the BYU 33Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+11
99.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Chase Roberts for 11 yds to the BYU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
99.9%
Miles Davis run for 11 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.9%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Miles DavisSimilar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
99.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to LJ Martin for 3 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q4 9:29
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+3
99.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Darius Lassiter for 3 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q4 8:44
4TH & 4
OPP 39
+2
99.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to LJ Martin for 2 yds to the TCU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24FG
6 plays · 34 yds · 2:18100% → 100%
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
99.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 10 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+22
99.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to DJ Rogers for 22 yds to the BYU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
99.9%
Trent Battle run for no gain to the BYU 31Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+2
99.9%
Trey Sanders run for 2 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 8
OPP 29
0
99.9%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Warren ThompsonSimilar
Q4 6:18
4TH & 8
OPP 29
+47
99.9%
Griffin Kell 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 1:540% → 0%
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
LJ Martin run for 3 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
99.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Kody Epps for 7 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Darius LassiterSimilar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Keelan MarionSimilar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
100.0%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Darius LassiterSimilar
Q4 4:17
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
100.0%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 60 yds, downed at the TCU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 26END OF GAME
8 plays · 43 yds · 4:08100% → 100%
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
99.9%
Grant Tisdale run for 2 yds to the TCU 7Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+16
99.9%
Cam Cook run for 16 yds to the TCU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
99.9%
Cam Cook run for 2 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Cam Cook run for 6 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+8
100.0%
Grant Tisdale pass complete to DJ Rogers for 8 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
100.0%
Brant Ahlfinger run for 2 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+3
100.0%
Cam Cook run for 3 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q4 0:03
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+4
100.0%
Franklin Estrada II run for 4 yds to the TCU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:15
Keelan Marion run for 3 yds for a TD (Kedon Slovis pass to Chase Roberts for Two-Point Conversion)
-8.8
TD · Q2 0:40
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 7 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)
+6.9
TD · Q3 12:55
Josh Hoover pass complete to Warren Thompson for 14 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)
+4.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com