2023 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2023 · Boone Pickens Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · OKST
modelOKST aheadKU aheadconfidence bandkey playOKST scoreKU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:57 · Jason Bean pass incomplete to Jared Casey
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 2:52: Ollie Gordon II run for 42 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK) — OKST win probability +11.2 pts (now 56%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:06: Jason Bean pass complete to Quentin Skinner for 49 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — KU win probability +10.2 pts (now 61%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:13: Jason Bean pass complete to Quentin Skinner for 42 yds for a TD (Owen Piepergerdes KICK) — KU win probability +14.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 11:32: Alex Hale 21 yd FG GOOD — OKST win probability +10.3 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
- TD · Q4 2:33: Brennan Presley run for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — OKST win probability +39.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OKST made the numbers' call on 5 of 9KU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 10:25KU 4th & 8 at KU 37, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.3% before the snapGo for it53.3%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.4%average punt
- Q1 2:10OKST 4th & 7 at KU 11, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.9% before the snapGo for it51.5%−0.232% to convertField goalTheir call51.8%87% to makePunt48.8%−2.9average punt
- Q2 11:25OKST 4th & 19 at OKST 24, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.3% before the snapGo for it47.9%−1.910% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.8%average punt
- Q2 9:08OKST 4th & 1 at OKST 22, down 2Close callPunted · 46.0% before the snapGo for it46.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.3%−0.9average punt
- Q2 8:13KU 4th & 9 at KU 38, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snapGo for it52.8%−0.932% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.7%average punt
- Q2 6:12OKST 4th & 10 at KU 46, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.4% before the snapGo for it45.9%−0.430% to convertField goal45.0%−1.323% to makePuntTheir call46.3%average punt
- Q2 3:40KU 4th & 8 at KU 16, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snapGo for it50.3%−2.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.6%average punt
- Q2 0:20OKST 4th & 6 at KU 41, down 1Numbers favored field goal by 1.2 ptsPunted · 48.5% before the snapGo for it48.6%−0.540% to convertField goal49.1%32% to makePuntTheir call47.9%−1.2average punt
- Q3 5:28OKST 4th & 2 at KU 9, down 8Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 32.2% before the snapGo for it32.0%54% to convertField goalTheir call30.3%−1.789% to makePunt19.5%−12.4average punt
- Q4 11:32OKST 4th & 4 at KU 4, down 5Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 37.6% before the snapGo for it38.4%40% to convertField goalTheir call36.5%−1.993% to makePunt18.9%−19.5average punt
- Q4 9:38OKST 4th & 8 at KU 27, down 2Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.7% before the snapGo for it47.0%−3.133% to convertField goalTheir call50.1%62% to makePunt35.8%−14.4average punt
- Q4 6:23KU 4th & 5 at OKST 40, up 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call61.6%42% to convertField goal57.3%−4.434% to makePunt57.5%−4.1average punt
- Q4 1:57KU 4th & 1 at KU 34, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call20.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt11.7%−8.7average punt
- Q4 0:15OKST 4th & 1 at KU 25, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.0% before the snapGo for it89.9%−0.471% to convertField goalTheir call90.3%66% to makePunt86.8%−3.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OKST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4KU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
- Q1 13:11OKST Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call44.8%97% to makeGo for two44.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:25OKST Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.7%97% to makeGo for two51.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:14KU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call50.1%97% to makeGo for two50.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:42KU Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call50.4%97% to makeGo for two50.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:41KU Touchdown, up 2 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick53.9%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call53.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:52OKST Touchdown, up 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call55.7%97% to makeGo for two55.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:06KU Touchdown, up 1 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick54.5%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call54.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:13KU Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.1%97% to makeGo for two66.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 2:33OKST Touchdown, up 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · failedKick78.3%−0.997% to makeGo for twoTheir call79.1%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOKSTDrive 1TD6 plays · 77 yds · 1:2436% → 38%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+50
36.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ollie Gordon II for 50 yds to the KU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+5
36.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 5 yds to the KU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
37.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ollie Gordon II for 17 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 2:3463% → 61%
OKSTDrive 3TD9 plays · 83 yds · 2:5040% → 46%
Q1 9:53
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+11
39.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 11 yds to the OKST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
40.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 8 yds to the OKST 37Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 4
50
+18
41.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ollie Gordon II for 18 yds to the KU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+12
42.1%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 12 yds to the KU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
46.1%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 20 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 4TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0555% → 58%
Q1 5:59
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+9
46.0%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jared Casey for 9 yds to the KU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
42.3%
Jason Bean pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 47 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
Q1 5:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
41.7%
Keller,Seth kick attempt failed (blocked by Ross,Xavier) (H: Addison,Grayden, LS: Hosford,Luke) PENALTY OSU Offside (Epps,Cameron) 2 yards from OSU03 to OSU01. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 5FG9 plays · 64 yds · 2:5244% → 47%
Q1 4:33
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+40
44.1%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 40 yds to the KU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
45.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ollie Gordon II for no gain to the KU 31Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+17
45.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Blaine Green for 17 yds to the KU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 6TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:1654% → 58%
Q1 0:47
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
48.0%
Jason Bean pass complete to Mason Fairchild for 10 yds to the KU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
47.6%
Jason Bean pass complete to Mason Fairchild for 10 yds to the KU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+18
50.1%
Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 18 yds to the OKST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+30
42.1%
Jason Bean pass complete to Mason Fairchild for 30 yds for a TD (Seth Keller PAT BLOCKED)Similar
Q2 12:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
42.1%
PENALTY KAN False Start (Keller,Seth) 5 yards from OSU03 to OSU08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 7PUNT6 plays · -9 yds · 0:4745% → 44%
KUDrive 8TD2 plays · 72 yds · 0:2955% → 61%
OKSTDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2042% → 41%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4160% → 59%
OKSTDrive 11PUNT8 plays · 31 yds · 1:5042% → 42%
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
41.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 2 yds to the OKST 25Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+5
41.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 5 yds to the OKST 30Similar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
44.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ollie Gordon II for 12 yds to the KU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 2:2559% → 57%
OKSTDrive 13TD2 plays · 53 yds · 0:3745% → 56%
KUDrive 14TD7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3649% → 61%
Q2 1:06
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+49
38.9%
Jason Bean pass complete to Quentin Skinner for 49 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 15PUNT11 plays · 35 yds · 0:4044% → 44%
Q2 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+19
44.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 19 yds to the OKST 43 for a 1ST down Kansas Penalty, Defensive Offside (Quentin Skinner) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
45.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 5 yds to the OKST 48Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
46.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 4 yds to the KU 41Similar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
44.1%
Hudson Kaak punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Trevor Wilson at the KU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 16END OF HALF1 play · 1 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 17TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:4058% → 74%
Q3 14:11
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
41.8%
Jason Bean pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 6 yds to the KU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+3
41.8%
Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 3 yds to the KU 40Similar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+9
41.8%
Jason Bean pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 9 yds to the KU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
40.0%
Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 9 yds to the OKST 42Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+42
25.6%
Jason Bean pass complete to Quentin Skinner for 42 yds for a TD (Owen Piepergerdes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 18FG15 plays · 66 yds · 5:3429% → 38%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
29.1%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 6 yds to the OKST 31Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 7
OWN 44
-5
31.4%
(09:57) No Huddle-Shotgun Bowman,Alan pass complete short right to Gordon,Ollie for 6 yards to the OSU50, out of bounds at OSU50 PENALTY OSU Illegal Motion (Bray,Jaden) 5 yards from OSU44 to OSU39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+8
29.7%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 8 yds to the OKST 47Similar
Q3 8:54
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+13
31.1%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 13 yds to the KU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
32.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 12 yds to the KU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+6
31.7%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 6 yds to the KU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 19INT8 plays · 55 yds · 3:4867% → 74%
OKSTDrive 20FG11 plays · 74 yds · 4:4635% → 47%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
35.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 5 yds to the OKST 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 21INT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3263% → 61%
OKSTDrive 22MISSED FG4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5853% → 48%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 23DOWNS6 plays · 23 yds · 3:0563% → 66%
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
50
+5
33.2%
Jason Bean pass complete to Trevor Kardell for 20 yds to the OKST 30 for a 1ST down Kansas Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Devin Neal) to the OKST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
4TH & 5
OPP 40
-8
34.5%
Jason Bean sacked by Collin Oliver for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard line Jason Bean fumbled, recovered by KU Bryce Cabeldue , return for 0 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 24TD10 plays · 50 yds · 3:3151% → 90%
KUDrive 25DOWNS6 plays · 9 yds · 0:2721% → 15%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 26FG7 plays · 9 yds · 1:3793% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 27END OF GAME3 plays · 1 yds · 0:067% → 7%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:33
Brennan Presley run for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+39.2
TD · Q3 11:13
Jason Bean pass complete to Quentin Skinner for 42 yds for a TD (Owen Piepergerdes KICK)
-14.4
TD · Q2 2:52
Ollie Gordon II run for 42 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK)
+11.2