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Win probability · KU
modelKU aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playKU scoreUCF score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:13 · Timmy McClain sacked by Taiwan Berryhill Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the UCF 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 13:43: Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 5 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK) — KU win probability +4.8 pts (now 59%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:31: Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK) — KU win probability +12.0 pts (now 79%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 14:48: Devin Neal run for 75 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK) — KU win probability +9.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:01: Timmy McClain pass complete to Alec Holler for 13 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — UCF win probability +4.5 pts (now 7%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:02: Dylan McDuffie 1 Yd Run — KU win probability +2.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UCF made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
- Q1 10:45UCF 4th & 16 at KU 36, tiedClose callPunted · 52.3% before the snapGo for it52.2%−0.116% to convertField goal52.3%42% to makePuntTheir call52.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 3:42KU 4th & 3 at UCF 8, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 49.5% before the snapGo for it49.5%47% to convertField goalTheir call49.3%−0.290% to makePunt47.3%−2.2average punt
- Q1 3:05UCF 4th & 6 at UCF 29, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.3% before the snapGo for it48.4%−0.339% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.6%average punt
- Q2 12:44UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 30, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snapGo for it40.8%−0.341% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.1%average punt
- Q2 3:26UCF 4th & 11 at UCF 42, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snapGo for it21.9%−1.926% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.8%average punt
- Q2 0:25KU 4th & 18 at KU 43, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.9% before the snapGo for it87.9%−0.913% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.8%average punt
- Q4 6:05KU 4th & 15 at UCF 15, up 22Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snapGo for it98.7%−0.315% to convertField goalTheir call99.0%83% to makePunt98.1%−0.9average punt
- Q4 4:13UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 43, down 22Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.8%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UCF made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q2 13:43KU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call58.9%97% to makeGo for two58.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:31KU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.1%97% to makeGo for two72.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:48KU Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.4%97% to makeGo for two97.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:01UCF Touchdown, down 25 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick6.3%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call6.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:09UCF Touchdown, down 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.6%97% to makeGo for two1.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:53KU Touchdown, up 28 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUCFDrive 1PUNT11 plays · 39 yds · 4:1553% → 52%
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
47.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 21 yds to the KU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
47.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 7 yds to the KU 34Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 9
OPP 29
-5
47.8%
PENALTY UCF False Start (Richardson,Johnny) 5 yards from KAN29 to KAN34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:45
4TH & 16
OPP 36
0
48.4%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Trevor Wilson at the KU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 2FG14 plays · 82 yds · 6:5748% → 51%
Q1 10:04
2ND & 5
OWN 15
-5
48.5%
(10:12) Shotgun Hishaw,Daniel rush left for 10 yards gain to the KAN25 (Adams,Brandon), out of bounds PENALTY KAN Illegal Formation 5 yards from KAN15 to KAN10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 7
50
+12
50.0%
Jason Bean pass complete to Mason Fairchild for 12 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+22
50.5%
Jason Bean pass complete to Luke Grimm for 22 yds to the UCF 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:3249% → 48%
Q1 3:05
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
52.3%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Trevor Wilson at the KU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 4TD9 plays · 69 yds · 4:1451% → 59%
UCFDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5142% → 40%
KUDrive 6TD13 plays · 72 yds · 6:0759% → 79%
UCFDrive 7PUNT RETURN TD7 plays · 17 yds · 2:5726% → 14%
Q2 5:17
2ND & 8
OWN 45
-5
74.3%
PENALTY UCF False Start (Harvey,RJ) 5 yards from UCF45 to UCF40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:12
3RD & 12
OWN 41
+1
76.5%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Alec Holler for 1 yd to the UCF 42Similar
Q2 3:26
4TH & 11
OWN 42
+82
86.0%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 40 yds , Trevor Wilson returns for 82 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8FUMBLE8 plays · 30 yds · 1:5714% → 15%
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
85.8%
PENALTY UCF False Start (Hudson,Kobe) 5 yards from UCF25 to UCF20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
85.7%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Javon Baker for 16 yds to the KU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-12
85.4%
Timmy McClain sacked by Austin Booker for a loss of 12 yards to the UCF 49 Timmy McClain fumbled, recovered by KU D.J. Withers , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 0:5591% → 90%
UCFDrive 10END OF HALF3 plays · 13 yds · 0:1911% → 11%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
88.9%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Chauncey Magwood for 13 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
88.5%
(00:19) No Huddle-Shotgun McClain,Timmy pass incomplete short left to Holler,Alec broken up by Bryant,Cobee PENALTY UCF Holding (Grable,Tylan) 10 yards from UCF31 to UCF21. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 11TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:383% → 7%
Q3 13:01
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
93.1%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Alec Holler for 13 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 13TD11 plays · 75 yds · 5:5095% → 99%
UCFDrive 14TD18 plays · 75 yds · 7:561% → 0%
Q3 6:31
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
99.2%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 2 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
99.2%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 8 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
99.3%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 5 yds to the UCF 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 15TD5 plays · 54 yds · 1:55100% → 100%
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
99.7%
UCF Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Brandon Adams) to the UCF 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16TD7 plays · 75 yds · 1:290% → 2%
Q4 11:17
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
99.8%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 5 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+41
99.8%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Javon Baker for 41 yds to the KU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
98.1%
Randy Pittman 23 Yd pass from Timmy McClain (Colton Boomer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 17MISSED FG7 plays · 31 yds · 3:5699% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18DOWNS5 plays · 15 yds · 1:401% → 1%
KUDrive 19TD8 plays · 35 yds · 3:15100% → 100%
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-15
99.6%
Kansas Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the UCF 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20END OF GAME5 plays · -2 yds · 0:440% → 0%
Q4 0:26
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
100.0%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Randy Pittman for 6 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q4 0:17
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
99.9%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Mark-Antony Richards for 3 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-13
100.0%
Timmy McClain sacked by Patrick Joyner Jr. for a loss of 13 yards to the UCF 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:31
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)
+12
TD · Q3 14:48
Devin Neal run for 75 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)
+9
TD · Q2 13:43
Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 5 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)
+4.8