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TCU

TCU 14 at Iowa State 27

ISU
2023 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2023 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreTCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:36 · (00:36) [NH] Kneel down by BECHT, Rocco at TCU48 (team loss of 2), clock 00:28.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:23: Eli Sanders run for 4 yds for a TD (Chase Contreraz KICK) — ISU win probability +6.3 pts (now 50%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:28: Chandler Morris pass complete to Savion Williams for 6 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +6.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Chase Contreraz 26 yd FG GOOD — ISU win probability +6.4 pts (now 56%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:30: Abu Sama III run for 55 yds for a TD (Chase Contreraz KICK) — ISU win probability +16.0 pts (now 69%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:27: Rocco Becht pass complete to Easton Dean for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Contreraz KICK) — ISU win probability +17.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10TCU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 11:02ISU 4th & 8 at TCU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:34ISU 4th & 5 at TCU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:40TCU 4th & 1 at ISU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    60.7%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:24ISU 4th & 11 at TCU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.9%
    54% to make
    Punt
    42.6%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:33TCU 4th & 6 at TCU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:41ISU 4th & 5 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:52TCU 4th & 6 at TCU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−2.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00ISU 4th & 7 at TCU 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.4%
    90% to make
    Punt
    40.3%−7.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:05ISU 4th & 8 at ISU 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%−1.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:16TCU 4th & 15 at TCU 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−3.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:03TCU 4th & 23 at TCU 12, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−5.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:31ISU 4th & 3 at TCU 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    70.8%−1.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    69.5%−2.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:27ISU 4th & 3 at TCU 3, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.4%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    90.1%−5.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:25TCU 4th & 12 at ISU 30, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−0.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:53TCU 4th & 4 at ISU 4, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%
    93% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−2.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:04ISU 4th & 6 at ISU 30, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:24ISU 4th & 7 at ISU 9, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 0:23ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:28TCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:30ISU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:27ISU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:17TCU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TCUDrive 1INT
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:3364% → 63%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
36.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to JP Richardson for 3 yds to the TCU 20Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+4
36.1%
Emani Bailey run for 4 yds to the TCU 24Similar
Q1 14:07
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+3
36.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to JP Richardson for 3 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
36.5%
Emani Bailey run for 4 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+5
36.6%
Emani Bailey run for 5 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+14
36.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jared Wiley for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
50
0
36.7%
Chandler Morris pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1537% → 38%
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
37.3%
Eli Sanders run for 7 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 3
OPP 44
-5
37.7%
Eli Sanders run for a loss of 5 yards to the TCU 49Similar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
37.7%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:02
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
37.5%
Tyler Perkins punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3INT
10 plays · 63 yds · 2:4563% → 63%
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
37.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Savion Williams for 11 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
37.5%
Emani Bailey run for 12 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+20
37.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Emani Bailey for 20 yds to the ISU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
37.3%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
37.4%
Trent Battle run for 4 yds to the ISU 33Similar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+14
37.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to JP Richardson for 14 yds to the ISU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
37.3%
Trent Battle run for 2 yds to the ISU 17Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
37.3%
Chandler Morris pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 39 yds · 3:2839% → 40%
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
38.9%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 3 yds to the ISU 16Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+3
38.6%
Eli Sanders run for 3 yds to the ISU 19Similar
Q1 6:48
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+6
38.5%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 6 yds to the ISU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
39.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 22 yds to the ISU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
40.3%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
40.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Easton Dean for 5 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q1 4:48
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
40.5%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:34
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
39.9%
Tyler Perkins punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 5DOWNS
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:4461% → 61%
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
39.2%
Emani Bailey run for 13 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
38.6%
Emani Bailey run for no gain to the TCU 43Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+8
39.0%
Emani Bailey run for 8 yds to the ISU 49Similar
Q1 3:22
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+1
38.7%
Emani Bailey run for 1 yd to the ISU 48Similar
Q1 2:40
4TH & 1
OPP 48
-3
39.4%
Chandler Morris run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6TD
6 plays · 49 yds · 2:1242% → 50%
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+24
42.3%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Stevo Klotz for 24 yds to the TCU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
42.8%
Abu Sama III run for 6 yds to the TCU 19Similar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+5
43.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 5 yds to the TCU 14 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Personal Foul (Avery Helm) to the TCU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
43.4%
Eli Sanders run for 3 yds to the TCU 4Similar
Q1 0:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
49.6%
Eli Sanders run for 4 yds for a TD (Chase Contreraz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 4:4753% → 61%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
46.7%
run for 24 yds to the TCU 46 TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jared Wiley) to the TCU 20Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 12
OWN 20
+19
46.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Chase Curtis for 19 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
46.4%
Emani Bailey run for 16 yds to the ISU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
45.7%
JP Richardson run for 8 yds to the ISU 37Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 2
OPP 37
0
45.7%
Emani Bailey run for no gain to the ISU 37Similar
Q2 13:12
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+10
46.2%
Emani Bailey run for 10 yds to the ISU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
45.6%
TCU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ISU 32Similar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 15
OPP 32
+5
46.6%
Chandler Morris run for 5 yds to the ISU 27Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+14
46.4%
Trey Sanders run for 14 yds to the ISU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
46.3%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+7
46.4%
Emani Bailey run for 7 yds to the ISU 6Similar
Q2 10:28
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+6
39.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Savion Williams for 6 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8MISSED FG
12 plays · 34 yds · 5:0345% → 46%
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
44.8%
Eli Sanders run for 7 yds to the ISU 42Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+1
46.9%
Eli Sanders run for 1 yd to the ISU 43Similar
Q2 9:03
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+5
46.5%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 5 yds to the ISU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
47.8%
Carson Hansen run for 6 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+3
48.4%
Carson Hansen run for 3 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+13
48.1%
Cartevious Norton run for 13 yds to the TCU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
49.9%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 31Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 11
OPP 31
0
50.0%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 11
OPP 31
0
48.6%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:24
4TH & 11
OPP 31
+49
46.3%
Chase Contreraz 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4658% → 56%
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
42.0%
Emani Bailey run for 3 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+1
42.0%
Emani Bailey run for 1 yd to the TCU 35Similar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
42.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Chase Curtis for no gain to the TCU 35Similar
Q2 3:33
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
44.1%
Jordy Sandy punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the ISU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:4447% → 48%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
46.7%
Cartevious Norton run for 8 yds to the ISU 35Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+10
48.2%
Cartevious Norton run for 10 yds to the ISU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
49.1%
Cartevious Norton run for 2 yds to the ISU 47Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+3
50.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 5
50
0
49.7%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:41
4TH & 5
50
0
48.0%
Tyler Perkins punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4154% → 51%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
46.4%
Major Everhart run for no gain to the TCU 12Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+4
47.2%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jared Wiley for 4 yds to the TCU 16Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 6
OWN 16
0
48.0%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:52
4TH & 6
OWN 16
0
49.2%
punt blocked by blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12FG
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:4353% → 56%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
52.5%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+2
52.6%
Cartevious Norton run for 2 yds to the TCU 9Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 8
OPP 9
-15
51.2%
(00:33) BECHT, Rocco pass short to the left complete for 6 yards to NOEL, Jaylin caught at the TCU7 and advanced to the TCU3 (CLARK, Bud), clock 00:29. PENALTY ISU Pass Interference on HIGGINS, Jayden enforced 15 yards to the TCU24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 23
OPP 24
+16
49.4%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Hansen for 16 yds to the TCU 8Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+26
56.0%
Chase Contreraz 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5551% → 51%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
51.1%
Eli Sanders run for 2 yds to the ISU 27Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
52.9%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:13
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
51.3%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:05
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
50.6%
Tyler Perkins punt for 45 yds, fair catch by JP Richardson at the TCU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:4249% → 45%
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
51.2%
Chandler Morris run for 14 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
49.4%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:29
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
50.1%
Emani Bailey run for no gain to the TCU 42Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 10
OWN 42
-5
51.5%
Chandler Morris sacked by J.R. Singleton for a loss of 5 yards to the TCU 37Similar
Q3 12:16
4TH & 15
OWN 37
0
54.6%
Jordy Sandy punt for 37 yds, downed at the ISU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 15TD
2 plays · 74 yds · 0:3553% → 69%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+19
53.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Benjamin Brahmer for 19 yds to the ISU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
69.1%
Abu Sama III run for 55 yds for a TD (Chase Contreraz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 2:1633% → 29%
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
67.4%
Emani Bailey run for 7 yds to the TCU 22Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+3
66.7%
Chandler Morris run for 3 yds to the TCU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
67.3%
Josh Hoover run for a loss of 6 yards to the TCU 19 Josh Hoover fumbled, recovered by TCU Josh HooverSimilar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+3
68.3%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jack Bech for 3 yds to the TCU 22Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-10
70.2%
Josh Hoover sacked by Zach Lovett for a loss of 10 yards to the TCU 12Similar
Q3 9:03
4TH & 23
OWN 12
0
71.5%
Jordy Sandy punt for 26 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 17TD
13 plays · 38 yds · 5:2872% → 95%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-4
71.7%
Abu Sama III run for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 42Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 14
OPP 42
0
71.3%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 14
OPP 42
+11
70.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 11 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q3 7:31
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+5
72.6%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Easton Dean for 5 yds to the TCU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
77.2%
Rocco Becht run for 5 yds to the TCU 21Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+5
76.9%
Eli Sanders run for 5 yds to the TCU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
77.0%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+5
77.7%
Eli Sanders run for 5 yds to the TCU 11Similar
Q3 4:49
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+7
75.9%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 7 yds to the TCU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
76.3%
Cartevious Norton run for 3 yds to the TCU 1Similar
Q3 3:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.3%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Easton Dean for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Contreraz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18INT
5 plays · 37 yds · 1:5110% → 9%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+29
90.5%
Emani Bailey run for 29 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
90.5%
Emani Bailey run for 9 yds to the ISU 47Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+2
89.9%
Emani Bailey run for 2 yds to the ISU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
90.6%
Trey Sanders run for a loss of 3 yards to the ISU 48Similar
Q3 1:29
2ND & 13
OPP 48
0
91.0%
Josh Hoover pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19FG
9 plays · 72 yds · 4:5596% → 99%
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.7%
Cartevious Norton run for 2 yds to the ISU 27Similar
Q3 0:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
96.0%
Cartevious Norton run for 6 yds to the ISU 33Similar
Q4 14:59
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+29
96.7%
Eli Sanders run for 29 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+28
97.2%
Eli Sanders run for 28 yds to the TCU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
97.7%
Abu Sama III run for no gain to the TCU 10Similar
Q4 12:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
97.9%
Abu Sama III run for no gain to the TCU 10Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
98.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Abu Sama III for 7 yds to the TCU 3Similar
Q4 11:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
99.4%
Chase Contreraz 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20DOWNS
12 plays · 56 yds · 3:261% → 1%
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
98.6%
TCU Penalty, False Start (Willis Patrick) to the TCU 35Similar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 15
OWN 35
0
98.6%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+18
98.7%
Emani Bailey run for 18 yds to the ISU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+19
98.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Dylan Wright for 19 yds to the ISU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
98.4%
Emani Bailey run for 3 yds to the ISU 25Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 7
OPP 25
-5
98.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Emani Bailey for a loss of 5 yards to the ISU 30Similar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 12
OPP 30
0
98.7%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:25
4TH & 12
OPP 30
+21
98.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Warren Thompson for 21 yds to the ISU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
98.6%
Corey Wren run for 2 yds to the ISU 7Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
98.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 3 yds to the ISU 4Similar
Q4 7:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
98.8%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
0
98.9%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:45100% → 100%
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
99.7%
Eli Sanders run for 4 yds to the ISU 9Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+15
99.7%
TCU Penalty, Personal Foul (Micheal Ibukun-Okeyode) to the ISU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
99.7%
Eli Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the ISU 25Similar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+5
99.7%
Eli Sanders run for 5 yds to the ISU 30Similar
Q4 5:09
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
99.7%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:04
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
99.7%
Tyler Perkins punt for 27 yds, downed at the TCU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22INT
6 plays · 35 yds · 1:211% → 1%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
99.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JoJo Earle for 4 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 6
OWN 47
0
99.5%
Cam Cook run for no gain to the TCU 47Similar
Q4 4:11
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+20
99.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JoJo Earle for 20 yds to the ISU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
99.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jack Bech for 11 yds to the ISU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
99.4%
JP Richardson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:57100% → 100%
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
99.9%
Cartevious Norton run for no gain to the ISU 6Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+1
99.9%
Cartevious Norton run for 1 yd to the ISU 7Similar
Q4 2:29
3RD & 9
OWN 7
+2
99.9%
Abu Sama III run for 2 yds to the ISU 9Similar
Q4 2:24
4TH & 7
OWN 9
0
99.9%
Tyler Perkins punt for 34 yds, downed at the ISU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24TD
6 plays · 43 yds · 0:580% → 3%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.6%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
99.6%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+14
99.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Warren Thompson for 14 yds to the ISU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.6%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+20
99.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Blake Nowell for 20 yds to the ISU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
97.3%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Blake Nowell for 9 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:41100% → 100%
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.5%
(01:17) [NH] Kneel down by BECHT, Rocco at TCU46 (team loss of 2), clock 01:07.Similar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 12
OPP 46
0
99.5%
(00:36) [NH] Kneel down by BECHT, Rocco at TCU48 (team loss of 2), clock 00:28.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:27
Rocco Becht pass complete to Easton Dean for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Contreraz KICK)
+17.7
TD · Q3 11:30
Abu Sama III run for 55 yds for a TD (Chase Contreraz KICK)
+16
TD · Q2 10:28
Chandler Morris pass complete to Savion Williams for 6 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)
-6.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com