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TTU

Texas Tech 39 at Baylor 14

BAY
2023 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2023 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadTTU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreTTU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q4Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameTD+12.5BAY 17.0%Monaray Baldwin 71 Yd pass from BlakeShapen (Blake Shapen Pass to KetronJackson Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)AWAY 24 - HOME 11 · Q4 13:34
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:34 · Monaray Baldwin 71 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Blake Shapen Pass to Ketron Jackson Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q4Q3Q4Play 125Home team on offense−20.9Score differential−7.3Garbage-time factor−8.2Pregame prior−1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:06: Behren Morton pass complete to Baylor Cupp for 16 yds for a TD — TTU win probability +6.8 pts (now 67%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 9:32: Isaiah Hankins 33 yd FG GOOD — TTU win probability +2.2 pts (now 64%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:38: Behren Morton pass complete to Baylor Cupp for 18 yds for a TD — TTU win probability +3.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:34: Monaray Baldwin 71 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Blake Shapen Pass to Ketron Jackson Jr. for Two-Point Conversion) — BAY win probability +12.5 pts (now 17%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:15: Tahj Brooks 18 Yd Run (Tahj Brooks Run for Two-Point Conversion) — TTU win probability +9.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 9 of 11TTU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00TTU 4th & 1 at BAY 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    54.0%−0.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    54.1%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:15BAY 4th & 1 at TTU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    44.0%−0.9
    34% to make
    Punt
    44.1%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:43TTU 4th & 5 at TTU 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:07BAY 4th & 19 at BAY 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%−1.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:08BAY 4th & 9 at BAY 17, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:32BAY 4th & 11 at TTU 16, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−0.9
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.3%
    81% to make
    Punt
    33.3%−4.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:22TTU 4th & 5 at TTU 46, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:07BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 42, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.4%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00TTU 4th & 1 at BAY 18, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    76.5%−2.3
    79% to make
    Punt
    69.9%−8.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:09TTU 4th & 3 at BAY 19, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%−1.0
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    71.2%−4.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:36BAY 4th & 1 at TTU 35, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    15.5%−2.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    14.8%−2.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:02BAY 4th & 6 at TTU 15, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.6%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    11.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−6.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:34BAY 4th & 5 at BAY 29, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:35BAY 4th & 16 at TTU 16, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.1%
    81% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−1.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:47TTU 4th & 18 at TTU 40, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%−0.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:01BAY 4th & 3 at BAY 14, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.0%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:53BAY 4th & 16 at BAY 19, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 0 of 1TTU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:46TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:06TTU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:34BAY Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    11.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    10.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:15TTU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    96.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:38TTU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TTUDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:1457% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
43.5%
Tahj Brooks run for 5 yds to the TTU 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+18
43.5%
Tahj Brooks run for 18 yds to the TTU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
43.5%
Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
50
+4
43.5%
Behren Morton pass complete to Tahj Brooks for 4 yds to the BAY 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+3
43.5%
Behren Morton pass complete to Myles Price for 3 yds to the BAY 43Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+16
43.5%
Tahj Brooks run for 16 yds to the BAY 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
43.5%
Tahj Brooks run for 5 yds to the BAY 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+6
43.5%
Cam'Ron Valdez run for 6 yds to the BAY 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
43.5%
Cam'Ron Valdez run for 3 yds to the BAY 13Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 13
0
43.5%
pass incomplete to Jayden YorkSimilar
Q1 9:46
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+13
42.5%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 13 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2DOWNS
9 plays · 33 yds · 5:0343% → 42%
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
43.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for a loss of 2 yards to the BAY 24Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+13
43.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 13 yds to the BAY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
43.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 14 yds to the TTU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
43.7%
Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the TTU 48Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+2
43.7%
Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the TTU 46Similar
Q1 9:46
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+6
43.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 6 yds to the TTU 40Similar
Q1 6:15
4TH & 1
OPP 40
0
43.0%
pass incomplete to Dominic RichardsonSimilar
Q1 4:43
3RD & 10
OWN 28
-9
41.8%
Blake Shapen sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the BAY 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3259% → 58%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
41.5%
Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
41.7%
pass incomplete to Myles PriceSimilar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+5
42.0%
Behren Morton pass complete to Myles Price for 5 yds to the TTU 46Similar
Q1 4:43
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
41.9%
Austin McNamara punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 3:3642% → 41%
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
42.2%
Texas Tech Penalty, off-side (Bryce Ramirez) to the BAY 11Similar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 5
OWN 11
+5
42.3%
Dominic Richardson run for 5 yds to the BAY 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
42.3%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the BAY 18Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+10
42.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 10 yds to the BAY 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
42.4%
Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
42.3%
pass incomplete to Hal PresleySimilar
Q1 1:07
4TH & 19
OWN 19
0
40.5%
Palmer Williams punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 3:0160% → 67%
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
40.0%
Behren Morton pass complete to Myles Price for 5 yds to the TTU 46Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+1
40.0%
Tahj Brooks run for 1 yd to the TTU 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+5
39.9%
Tahj Brooks run for 5 yds to the BAY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+24
39.5%
Tahj Brooks run for 24 yds to the BAY 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
39.3%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the BAY 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+5
39.3%
Behren Morton pass complete to Myles Price for 5 yds to the BAY 16Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+5
39.9%
Tahj Brooks run for 5 yds to the BAY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:06
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+16
33.1%
Behren Morton pass complete to Baylor Cupp for 16 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6FUMBLE
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
31.5%
Blake Shapen sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the BAY 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 3:3438% → 35%
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
37.8%
pass incomplete to Richard ReeseSimilar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+1
37.6%
Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the BAY 17Similar
Q2 13:06
3RD & 9
OWN 17
0
37.0%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Ketron Jackson Jr., broken up by Bralyn LuxSimilar
Q2 12:08
4TH & 9
OWN 17
0
36.2%
Palmer Williams punt for 36 ydsSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-15
35.0%
MORTON, Behren pass deep to the right complete for 46 yards to BRADLEY, Jerand caught at the BAY35 and advanced to the BAY13 (REED, Chateau). PENALTY TTU Pass Interference on BRADLEY, Jerand enforced 15 yards to the TTU26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 8FUMBLE
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:4364% → 64%
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
35.8%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 7
50
+6
35.8%
Tahj Brooks run for 6 yds to the BAY 44Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
35.6%
Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the BAY 42 Tahj Brooks fumbled, recovered by BAY Garmon RandolphSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9FG
5 plays · 42 yds · 1:5338% → 36%
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+43
38.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jordan Nabors for 43 yds to the TTU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
39.5%
Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-1
39.5%
Hal Presley run for a loss of 1 yard to the TTU 16Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 11
OPP 16
0
38.4%
pass incomplete to Monaray BaldwinSimilar
Q2 9:32
4TH & 11
OPP 16
+33
36.2%
Isaiah Hankins 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:1065% → 65%
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-15
35.0%
Texas Tech Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Jerand Bradley) to the TTU 26Similar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
36.0%
Behren Morton pass complete to Drae McCray for 16 yds to the TTU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 25
OWN 26
+4
36.1%
Tahj Brooks run for 4 yds to the TTU 30Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 21
OWN 30
+16
36.2%
Behren Morton pass complete to Myles Price for 16 yds to the TTU 46Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
35.2%
Behren Morton pass incomplete to Myles Price, broken up by Devyn BobbySimilar
Q2 7:22
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
34.6%
Austin McNamara punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11DOWNS
11 plays · 28 yds · 7:2234% → 25%
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
33.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the BAY 13Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 8
OWN 13
0
33.8%
pass incomplete to Josh CameronSimilar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 8
OWN 13
+9
33.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 9 yds to the BAY 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
34.0%
Blake Shapen run for 2 yds to the BAY 24Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 8
OWN 24
-9
34.0%
Blake Shapen sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the BAY 15Similar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 17
OWN 15
+18
33.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 18 yds to the BAY 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
34.4%
Jordan Nabors run for 2 yds to the BAY 35Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
34.4%
pass incomplete to Jordan NaborsSimilar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+7
33.7%
Blake Shapen run for 7 yds to the BAY 42Similar
Q2 3:07
4TH & 1
OWN 42
-3
32.0%
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 3 yards to the BAY 39Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
25.2%
[NH] Kneel down by BAY at BAY29 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12DOWNS
6 plays · 21 yds · 3:0774% → 77%
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
26.4%
Cam'Ron Valdez run for 7 yds to the BAY 32Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+5
26.2%
Cam'Ron Valdez run for 5 yds to the BAY 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
26.2%
Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
25.7%
Behren Morton pass incomplete to Coy Eakin, broken up by Garmon RandolphSimilar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+9
26.0%
Behren Morton pass complete to Xavier White for 9 yds to the BAY 18Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 18
0
22.9%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13Uncategorized
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
26.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 6 yds to the BAY 24Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 4
OWN 24
0
27.2%
pass incomplete to Ketron Jackson Jr.Similar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+7
26.8%
Blake Shapen run for 7 yds to the BAY 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 14FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0877% → 77%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
23.5%
Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+5
23.6%
Behren Morton pass complete to Myles Price for 5 yds to the BAY 21Similar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+2
23.6%
Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the BAY 19Similar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 3
OPP 19
+37
23.5%
Gino Garcia 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 33
-7
4.8%
Blake Shapen sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the BAY 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 16INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
10.7%
Behren Morton pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17DOWNS
9 plays · 49 yds · 2:2417% → 17%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
16.5%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the BAY 17Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 17
0
16.4%
pass incomplete to Jordan NaborsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 17
+5
16.2%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Ketron Jackson Jr., broken up by Charles Esters III Texas Tech Penalty, off-side (Steve Linton) to the BAY 22Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+34
16.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 34 yds to the TTU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
18.5%
pass incomplete to Monaray BaldwinSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+5
18.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 5 yds to the TTU 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+4
18.3%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the TTU 35Similar
Q3 12:36
4TH & 1
OPP 35
0
17.0%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18DOWNS
10 plays · 56 yds · 5:2615% → 11%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-11
15.2%
Blake Shapen sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the BAY 18Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 21
OWN 18
+24
14.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 24 yds to the BAY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
16.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Armani Winfield for 15 yds to the TTU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
16.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 7 yds to the TTU 36Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+5
17.0%
Dominic Richardson run for 5 yds to the TTU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
17.2%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 12 yds to the TTU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
17.5%
Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+4
17.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 4 yds to the TTU 15Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 6
OPP 15
0
17.1%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Hal Presley, broken up by Dadrion Taylor-DemersonSimilar
Q3 7:02
4TH & 6
OPP 15
0
11.2%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Hal Presley, broken up by Rayshad WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 19TD
13 plays · 85 yds · 6:2493% → 97%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
6.7%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the TTU 18Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+2
6.6%
Behren Morton pass complete to Myles Price for 2 yds to the TTU 20Similar
Q3 7:02
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+7
6.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 7 yds to the TTU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
6.6%
Tahj Brooks run for 6 yds to the TTU 33Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 4
OWN 33
0
6.7%
Similar
Q3 7:02
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+7
6.7%
Tahj Brooks run for 7 yds to the TTU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
6.3%
Tahj Brooks run for 8 yds to the TTU 48Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+1
6.1%
Tahj Brooks run for 1 yd to the TTU 49Similar
Q3 7:02
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+3
6.4%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the BAY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
6.2%
Behren Morton pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 6 yds to the BAY 42Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
6.1%
pass incomplete to Jerand BradleySimilar
Q3 7:02
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+24
6.3%
Behren Morton pass complete to Myles Price for 24 yds to the BAY 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
3.1%
Behren Morton pass complete to Baylor Cupp for 18 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 2:045% → 22%
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
4.8%
Blake Shapen run for 9 yds to the BAY 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+3
4.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 3 yds to the BAY 29Similar
Q4 13:34
4TH & 5
OWN 29
+71
17.0%
Monaray Baldwin 71 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Blake Shapen Pass to Ketron Jackson Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q4 13:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
21.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley Texas Tech Penalty, off-side (Dadrion Taylor-Demerson) to the TTU 3Similar
Q4 13:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
21.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 21TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 4:1987% → 98%
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
12.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to Myles Price for 5 yds to the TTU 40Similar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+20
12.0%
Behren Morton pass complete to Myles Price for 20 yds to the BAY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
11.7%
Tahj Brooks run for 8 yds to the BAY 32Similar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 2
OPP 32
0
11.2%
pass incomplete to Myles PriceSimilar
Q4 13:34
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+10
11.5%
Tahj Brooks run for 10 yds to the BAY 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
11.1%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the BAY 19Similar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+1
11.1%
Behren Morton pass complete to Drae McCray for 1 yd to the BAY 18Similar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+18
1.8%
Tahj Brooks 18 Yd Run (Tahj Brooks Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22FG
7 plays · 59 yds · 2:403% → 4%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+54
2.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 39 yds to the TTU 36 Texas Tech Penalty, personal foul (Dadrion Taylor-Demerson) to the TTU 21Similar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
3.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 11 yds to the TTU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
3.3%
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 2 yards to the TTU 12Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
0
3.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Dominic RichardsonSimilar
Q4 9:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
-4
3.0%
Blake Shapen sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the TTU 16Similar
Q4 6:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 16
+33
4.4%
Isaiah Hankins 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:4897% → 98%
Q4 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
2.8%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the BAY 49Similar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 7
OPP 49
-11
2.8%
Behren Morton sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the TTU 40Similar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
2.8%
Similar
Q4 4:47
4TH & 18
OWN 40
0
2.1%
Austin McNamara punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:462% → 2%
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
2.4%
pass incomplete to Jake RobertsSimilar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+7
2.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 7 yds to the BAY 14Similar
Q4 4:47
3RD & 3
OWN 14
0
2.4%
pass incomplete to Monaray BaldwinSimilar
Q4 4:01
4TH & 3
OWN 14
0
2.3%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Ketron Jackson Jr., broken up by Bralyn LuxSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 25TD
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:2398% → 100%
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
1.8%
Tahj Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 15Similar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+5
1.9%
Tahj Brooks run for 5 yds to the BAY 10Similar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+10
0.3%
Behren Morton run for 10 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:450% → 0%
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-16
0.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for a loss of 16 yards Blake Shapen fumbled, recovered by BAY Clark BarringtonSimilar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 26
OWN 9
0
0.2%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray BaldwinSimilar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 26
OWN 9
+10
0.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 10 yds to the BAY 19Similar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+43
0.1%
Palmer Williams punt for 43 yds for a 1ST down , Myles Price returns for 43 yds to the TTU 38 for a 1ST down Baylor Penalty, personal foul (Cameron Bonner) to the BAY 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:34
Monaray Baldwin 71 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Blake Shapen Pass to Ketron Jackson Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)
+12.5
TD · Q4 9:15
Tahj Brooks 18 Yd Run (Tahj Brooks Run for Two-Point Conversion)
-9.4
TD · Q2 13:06
Behren Morton pass complete to Baylor Cupp for 16 yds for a TD
-6.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com