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BAY

Baylor 36 at UCF 35

UCF
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:43 · Timmy McClain pass complete to RJ Harvey for 16 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 155Home team on offense−9.5Pregame prior+0.3Score differential−1.6Garbage-time factor−4.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0Blowout margin−2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:12: Demari Henderson 87 Yd Fumble Return (Colton Boomer Kick) — UCF win probability +9.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:08: Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 6 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK) — UCF win probability +4.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:38: Monaray Baldwin 5 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Blake Shapen Pass to Jordan Nabors for Two-Point Conversion) — BAY win probability +12.3 pts (now 17%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:02: Caden Jenkins 72 Yd Fumble Return (Isaiah Hankins Kick) — BAY win probability +12.6 pts (now 23%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 1:21: Isaiah Hankins 25 yd FG GOOD — BAY win probability +30.8 pts (now 76%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 5 of 6BAY made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 13:25BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:16BAY 4th & 19 at BAY 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:26BAY 4th & 19 at BAY 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−1.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:08UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:02BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 40, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.2%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:41UCF 4th & 14 at BAY 14, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    87.9%−3.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:14BAY 4th & 26 at UCF 29, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−1.1
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    5.3%−1.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:20BAY 4th & 13 at UCF 13, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.4%
    85% to make
    Punt
    -0.4%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:55UCF 4th & 3 at UCF 36, up 17
    Close callPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:46UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 25, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−6.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:21BAY 4th & 2 at UCF 7, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−20.9
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    12.4%−38.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:43UCF 4th & 6 at UCF 30, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.5%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.9%−5.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:43UCF 4th & 2 at BAY 46, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    32.5%−4.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    22.5%−14.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5BAY made the numbers' call on 1 of 4
  1. Q1 13:13UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:09UCF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:17UCF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:03BAY Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:12UCF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:08UCF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:38BAY Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    2.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:38BAY Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    10.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    9.4%−0.6
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:02BAY Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.7%−1.0
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3224% → 24%
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
76.4%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:57
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
76.4%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the BAY 23Similar
Q1 14:57
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+6
76.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 6 yds to the BAY 29Similar
Q1 13:25
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
76.1%
Palmer Williams punt for 50 yds, downed at the UCF 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2TD
1 play · 79 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+79
76.5%
Johnny Richardson run for 79 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:5724% → 23%
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
76.5%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the BAY 27Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
76.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jordan Nabors for 3 yds to the BAY 30Similar
Q1 13:13
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-14
76.5%
Blake Shapen sacked by Tre'Mon Morris-Brash for a loss of 14 yards to the BAY 16Similar
Q1 11:16
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
76.7%
Palmer Williams punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4TD
6 plays · 52 yds · 2:0777% → 79%
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
76.9%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Javon Baker for 13 yds to the BAY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+20
76.9%
Xavier Townsend run for 20 yds to the BAY 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
76.9%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+12
76.9%
RJ Harvey run for 12 yds to the BAY 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
76.9%
Timmy McClain run for 5 yds to the BAY 2Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
78.8%
Timmy McClain run for 2 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 2:4322% → 21%
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.1%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
78.1%
Richard Reese run for 6 yds to the BAY 31Similar
Q1 9:09
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
78.1%
Richard Reese run for 5 yds to the BAY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
78.0%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the BAY 37Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
78.0%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:09
3RD & 9
OWN 37
-10
78.1%
Blake Shapen sacked by Malachi Lawrence for a loss of 10 yards to the BAY 27Similar
Q1 6:26
4TH & 19
OWN 27
0
79.3%
Palmer Williams punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6TD
1 play · 65 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
82.3%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Javon Baker for 65 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 4:1418% → 21%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+17
82.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 17 yds to the BAY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
82.3%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+15
82.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 15 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
82.0%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
82.1%
Richard Reese run for 6 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+4
81.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jonah Burton for 4 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+25
81.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 25 yds to the UCF 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
81.5%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the UCF 2Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
81.5%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
79.2%
Blake Shapen run for 2 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5081% → 81%
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
81.1%
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
81.6%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:58
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
81.2%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:08
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
81.1%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9FUMBLE RETURN TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 4:5620% → 12%
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
80.1%
Richard Reese run for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 26Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+8
80.6%
Blake Shapen run for 8 yds to the BAY 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+28
80.4%
Richard Reese run for 28 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
79.9%
Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+11
79.3%
Dominic Richardson run for 11 yds to the UCF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
79.3%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+7
79.2%
Richard Reese run for 7 yds to the UCF 15Similar
Q2 11:12
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+87
88.3%
Demari Henderson 87 Yd Fumble Return (Colton Boomer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:0511% → 11%
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
88.8%
Richard Reese run for 6 yds to the BAY 37Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 4
OWN 37
-10
88.6%
SHAPEN, Blake scrambles up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the BU38 (HUNTER, Lee;BULLARD, Quadric). PENALTY BU Holding on EBOSELE, Alvin enforced 10 yards from the BU37 to the BU27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 14
OWN 27
+10
89.3%
Monaray Baldwin run for 10 yds to the BAY 37Similar
Q2 9:06
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+3
89.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 3 yds to the BAY 40Similar
Q2 9:02
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
89.2%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11MISSED FG
9 plays · 26 yds · 3:2192% → 92%
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
91.8%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the BAY 37Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+20
91.7%
RJ Harvey run for 20 yds to the BAY 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
91.8%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+10
91.8%
RJ Harvey run for 10 yds to the BAY 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
91.5%
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the BAY 2Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
91.5%
RJ Harvey run for no gain to the BAY 2Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-15
91.8%
MCCLAIN, Timmy pass short to the left complete for 2 yards to TOWNSEND, Xavier caught at the BU0 and advanced to the BU0, TOUCHDOWN UCF, score nullified by penalty, clock 06:28 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY UCF Pass Interference on HUDSON, Kobe enforced 15 yards to the BU17 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
+3
92.1%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 3 yds to the BAY 14Similar
Q2 5:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+32
92.0%
Colton Boomer 32 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12MISSED FG
13 plays · 51 yds · 5:2710% → 7%
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
90.5%
UCF Penalty, Roughing the Passer on PETERSON JR., Shaun enforced (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
50
+14
89.5%
Blake Shapen run for 14 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
89.4%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+10
88.8%
Richard Reese run for 10 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
88.8%
Richard Reese run for no gain to the UCF 23Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+5
89.1%
Dominic Richardson run for 5 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q2 5:41
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+5
89.3%
Dominic Richardson run for 5 yds to the UCF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
88.8%
Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the UCF 11Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
91.4%
Dawson Pendergrass run for no gain to the UCF 11Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 8
OPP 11
0
91.9%
Baylor Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Blake Shapen) to the UCF 29Similar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 26
OPP 29
+46
92.9%
Isaiah Hankins 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
94.5%
[NHSG] Kneel down by UCF at UCF27 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14TD
16 plays · 84 yds · 6:4694% → 99%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
94.2%
Johnny Richardson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 14Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 12
OWN 14
+3
94.2%
Johnny Richardson run for 3 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 9
OWN 17
+21
94.0%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Alec Holler for 21 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
94.5%
Johnny Richardson run for 5 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 5
OWN 43
-4
94.5%
Timmy McClain sacked by Cooper Lanz for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 39Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
94.3%
MCCLAIN, Timmy sacked for a loss of 7 yards at the UCF32 (VAUGHNS, Byron). PENALTY UCF Holding on KIGHT, Amari enforced 0 yards BU Personal Foul enforced 0 yards from the UCF29 to the UCF39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
94.6%
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+7
94.5%
Timmy McClain run for 7 yds to the BAY 47Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+5
94.4%
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the BAY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
94.6%
MCCLAIN, Timmy pass deep to the left incomplete intended for BAKER, Javon broken up by REED, Chateau at the BU2. PENALTY UCF Holding on GRABLE, Tylan enforced 10 yards from the BU42 to the UCF48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 20
OWN 48
+5
94.5%
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the BAY 47Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 15
OPP 47
+3
94.5%
Timmy McClain run for 3 yds to the BAY 44Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 12
OPP 44
+35
94.4%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Javon Baker for 35 yds to the BAY 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
94.6%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the BAY 6Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
94.6%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.3%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 6 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 4:391% → 1%
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-8
99.3%
Blake Shapen sacked by Tre'Mon Morris-Brash for a loss of 8 yards to the BAY 29Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 18
OWN 29
+12
99.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jordan Nabors for 12 yds to the BAY 41Similar
Q3 7:59
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+16
99.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 16 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.3%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+5
99.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Matthew Klopfenstein for 5 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q3 7:59
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+10
99.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 10 yds to the UCF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+18
99.2%
Richard Reese run for 18 yds to the UCF 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.2%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-3
99.2%
Blake Shapen run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 13Similar
Q3 7:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
99.3%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+30
98.6%
Isaiah Hankins 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16INT
6 plays · 44 yds · 2:4399% → 99%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
98.9%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Randy Pittman for 35 yds to the BAY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
99.0%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Alec Holler for 14 yds to the BAY 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
99.0%
MCCLAIN, Timmy pass to the right complete for 7 yards to MAGWOOD, Chauncey caught at the BU26 and advanced to the BU19 (JENKINS, Caden). PENALTY Before the snap, UCF Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the BU26 to the BU31. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 15
OPP 31
+2
99.0%
Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the BAY 29Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 13
OPP 29
-2
99.0%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 2 yards to the BAY 31Similar
Q3 0:37
3RD & 15
OPP 31
0
99.2%
Timmy McClain pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 2:591% → 5%
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
99.0%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-10
99.0%
Baylor Penalty, Offensive Holding (Alvin Ebosele) to the BAY 14Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 15
OWN 14
+10
98.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 10 yds to the BAY 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+5
99.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 5 yds to the BAY 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
99.0%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 8 yds to the BAY 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+43
99.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 43 yds to the UCF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
98.8%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+2
98.8%
Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+12
98.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jake Roberts for 12 yds to the UCF 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
94.6%
Dawson Pendergrass 6 Yd Run (Blake Shapen Pass to Ketron Jackson Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:3896% → 97%
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
96.2%
RJ Harvey run for 10 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
96.3%
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+5
96.3%
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q4 12:33
3RD & 3
OWN 36
0
96.4%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:55
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
96.5%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 19 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 1:174% → 17%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
96.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 5
50
+35
95.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 35 yds to the UCF 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
95.2%
Richard Reese run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 16Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+11
95.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 11 yds to the UCF 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
83.2%
Monaray Baldwin 5 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Blake Shapen Pass to Jordan Nabors for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20FUMBLE RETURN TD
7 plays · 37 yds · 3:3688% → 77%
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
88.0%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q4 9:38
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-1
88.7%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 38Similar
Q4 9:38
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+14
87.8%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 14 yds to the BAY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+18
88.9%
Johnny Richardson run for 18 yds to the BAY 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
89.1%
RJ Harvey run for 6 yds to the BAY 24Similar
Q4 9:38
2ND & 4
OPP 24
-1
89.1%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 25Similar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+72
76.6%
Caden Jenkins 72 Yd Fumble Return (Isaiah Hankins Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1073% → 70%
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
73.2%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 4 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-4
73.5%
MCCLAIN, Timmy pass to the left complete for 11 yards to BAKER, Javon caught at the UCF35 and advanced to the UCF40, out of bounds. PENALTY UCF Illegal Forward Pass on MCCLAIN, Timmy enforced 4 yards from the UCF29 to the UCF25, penalty results in a loss of down [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
71.1%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:46
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
70.1%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 45 yds , returns for no gain to the BAY 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22FG
12 plays · 61 yds · 3:2534% → 76%
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
65.6%
Richard Reese run for 4 yds to the BAY 36Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+4
64.4%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 4 yds to the BAY 40Similar
Q4 4:46
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+9
62.6%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 9 yds to the BAY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
61.4%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+36
62.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 36 yds to the UCF 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
55.2%
Dawson Pendergrass run for no gain to the UCF 15Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+3
55.0%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 3 yds to the UCF 12Similar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+5
54.5%
Blake Shapen run for 5 yds to the UCF 7Similar
Q4 1:21
4TH & 2
OPP 7
+25
23.8%
Isaiah Hankins 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23MISSED FG
13 plays · 33 yds · 1:1437% → 21%
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
36.7%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
35.1%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+4
33.1%
Timmy McClain run for 4 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 0:43
4TH & 6
OWN 30
+16
31.3%
Timmy McClain pass complete to RJ Harvey for 16 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
40.6%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
37.9%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 5 yds to the BAY 49Similar
Q4 0:43
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+3
41.4%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Alec Holler for 3 yds to the BAY 46Similar
Q4 0:43
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+5
37.8%
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the BAY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
43.2%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
27.7%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+59
20.8%
Colton Boomer 59 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 1:21
Isaiah Hankins 25 yd FG GOOD
-30.8
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-20.8
TD · Q4 6:02
Caden Jenkins 72 Yd Fumble Return (Isaiah Hankins Kick)
-12.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com