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HOU

Houston 28 at Texas Tech 49

TTU
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023 · Jones AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:39 · Laine Wilkins punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Xavier White at the TTU 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 138Pregame prior+3.4Home team on offense+31.5Score differential+22.0Garbage-time factor+7.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:47: Behren Morton pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 25 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK) — TTU win probability +6.5 pts (now 76%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:18: Loic Fouonji 7 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Gino Garcia Kick) — TTU win probability +8.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:16: Donovan Smith pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 41 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK) — HOU win probability +11.8 pts (now 34%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:44: Tahj Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK) — TTU win probability +7.1 pts (now 81%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:22: Behren Morton pass complete to Myles Price for 11 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK) — TTU win probability +10.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5HOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q2 7:18HOU 4th & 5 at HOU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  2. Q2 0:44TTU 4th & 1 at HOU 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    66.0%−1.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    60.6%−7.3
    average punt
  3. Q3 13:42TTU 4th & 13 at TTU 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%−2.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.6%
    average punt
  4. Q3 10:10HOU 4th & 7 at TTU 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  5. Q3 3:55HOU 4th & 1 at TTU 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    10.1%−2.0
    60% to make
    Punt
    5.5%−6.6
    average punt
  6. Q3 1:58TTU 4th & 12 at TTU 45, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%−1.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%
    average punt
  7. Q4 14:14HOU 4th & 13 at HOU 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−1.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%
    average punt
  8. Q4 12:39TTU 4th & 10 at TTU 41, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:54HOU 4th & 15 at HOU 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%−1.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:39HOU 4th & 19 at HOU 16, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:10TTU 4th & 4 at HOU 41, up 21
    Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:40HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:15HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:25TTU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:45HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:47TTU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 7:18TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 2:16HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 0:44TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 9:22TTU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 8:47TTU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 6:2022% → 26%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
78.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 2 yds to the HOU 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
78.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 5 yds to the HOU 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+18
78.5%
Donovan Smith run for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+4
78.5%
Parker Jenkins run for 4 yds to the TTU 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+7
78.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Matthew Golden for 7 yds to the TTU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-3
78.5%
Parker Jenkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the TTU 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 42
+16
78.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 16 yds to the TTU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
78.5%
Parker Jenkins run for 4 yds to the TTU 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+10
78.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 10 yds to the TTU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
78.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 4 yds to the TTU 8Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+2
78.5%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 2 yds to the TTU 6Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+6
74.4%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Bryan Henry for 6 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:1023% → 27%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.7%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
76.7%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+34
76.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 34 yds to the TTU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
76.2%
Parker Jenkins run for 13 yds to the TTU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
76.0%
Parker Jenkins run for 12 yds to the TTU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
72.6%
Samuel Brown 16 Yd pass from Donovan Smith (Jack Martin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 3TD
13 plays · 74 yds · 4:5074% → 76%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
73.6%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the TTU 29Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+15
73.7%
Behren Morton pass complete to Myles Price for 15 yds to the TTU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
74.1%
Texas Tech Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TTU 39Similar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+6
73.7%
Tahj Brooks run for 6 yds to the TTU 45Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
74.1%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+10
73.6%
Behren Morton pass complete to Myles Price for 10 yds to the HOU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
74.4%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+11
74.3%
Behren Morton pass complete to Myles Price for 11 yds to the HOU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
74.7%
Xavier White run for 2 yds to the HOU 32Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+15
74.7%
Behren Morton pass complete to Mason Tharp for 15 yds to the HOU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
74.7%
Behren Morton pass complete to Xavier White for 5 yds to the HOU 12Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+5
74.7%
Tahj Brooks run for 5 yds to the HOU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
76.3%
Tahj Brooks run for 7 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:4026% → 33%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
74.2%
Parker Jenkins run for 13 yds to the HOU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
73.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 4 yds to the HOU 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+8
72.7%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+1
72.5%
Donovan Smith run for 1 yd to the TTU 49Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+49
66.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 49 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 5TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:5868% → 76%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
68.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to Mason Tharp for 1 yd to the TTU 26Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+14
68.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to Xavier White for 14 yds to the TTU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
69.3%
Behren Morton run for 2 yds to the TTU 42Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+4
69.4%
Tahj Brooks run for 4 yds to the TTU 46Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+5
69.3%
Tahj Brooks run for 5 yds to the HOU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
69.9%
Behren Morton run for 7 yds to the HOU 42Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+2
70.1%
Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the HOU 40Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+1
69.9%
Tahj Brooks run for 1 yd to the HOU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
70.0%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
68.3%
Tahj Brooks run for 5 yds to the HOU 34Similar
Q2 10:02
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+7
68.4%
Cam'Ron Valdez run for 7 yds to the HOU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
69.4%
Cam'Ron Valdez run for 2 yds to the HOU 25Similar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+25
75.9%
Behren Morton pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 25 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6PUNT TD
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:2928% → 20%
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+15
71.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 15 yds to the HOU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
71.6%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 5 yds to the HOU 33Similar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 5
OWN 33
0
71.1%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 5
OWN 33
0
71.7%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:18
4TH & 5
OWN 33
+7
79.8%
Loic Fouonji 7 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Gino Garcia Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 5:0221% → 34%
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
79.3%
Parker Jenkins run for 2 yds to the HOU 27Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
79.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Matt Byrnes for 5 yds to the HOU 32Similar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
79.2%
Donovan Smith run for 7 yds to the HOU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
78.5%
Parker Jenkins run for 3 yds to the HOU 42Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+2
78.1%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 2 yds to the HOU 44Similar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+8
78.2%
Donovan Smith run for 8 yds to the TTU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
77.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 5 yds to the TTU 43Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+2
77.5%
Brandon Campbell run for 2 yds to the TTU 41Similar
Q2 2:16
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+41
65.7%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 41 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 8TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:3271% → 81%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
71.3%
Behren Morton pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 5 yds to the TTU 30Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+15
71.8%
Tahj Brooks run for 15 yds to the TTU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
73.2%
Behren Morton pass complete to Myles Price for 16 yds to the HOU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+34
73.7%
Behren Morton pass complete to Xavier White for 34 yds to the HOU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
74.4%
Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the HOU 3Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
73.4%
Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the HOU 1Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
73.6%
Tahj Brooks run for no gain to the HOU 1Similar
Q2 0:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.7%
Tahj Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9MISSED FG
7 plays · 45 yds · 0:4419% → 23%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
80.6%
Donovan Smith run for 8 yds to the HOU 31Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+15
79.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 15 yds to the HOU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
78.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Peyton Sawyer for 1 yd to the HOU 47Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+21
79.7%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 21 yds to the TTU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
76.5%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+49
76.6%
Jack Martin 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:1879% → 77%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
79.3%
Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the TTU 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
79.3%
Behren Morton pass complete to Tahj Brooks for a loss of 5 yards to the TTU 22Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
78.2%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:42
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
77.4%
Austin McNamara punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Malik Fleming at the HOU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:3222% → 21%
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
78.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Parker Jenkins for 12 yds to the HOU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
77.8%
Parker Jenkins run for 4 yds to the HOU 41Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-7
76.9%
Donovan Smith sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the HOU 34Similar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 13
OWN 34
+15
79.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 15 yds to the HOU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
76.5%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 3 yds to the TTU 48Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
76.3%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
76.7%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:10
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
78.6%
Laine Wilkins punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Myles Price at the TTU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:4879% → 90%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
79.4%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the TTU 23Similar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
90.0%
Behren Morton pass complete to Myles Price for 11 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13DOWNS
11 plays · 47 yds · 5:2712% → 11%
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
88.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 5 yds to the HOU 30Similar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
87.2%
Parker Jenkins run for 6 yds to the HOU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
87.4%
Donovan Smith run for 5 yds to the HOU 41Similar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+1
86.8%
Brandon Campbell run for 1 yd to the HOU 42Similar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+10
87.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Matthew Golden for 10 yds to the TTU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
86.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Mike O'Laughlin for 8 yds to the TTU 40Similar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+3
86.1%
Brandon Campbell run for 3 yds to the TTU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
86.5%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+8
86.5%
Donovan Smith run for 8 yds to the TTU 29Similar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+1
86.3%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 1 yd to the TTU 28Similar
Q3 3:55
4TH & 1
OPP 28
0
88.7%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for no gain to the TTU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:5792% → 93%
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+19
91.7%
Tahj Brooks run for 19 yds to the TTU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
92.2%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-1
92.1%
Tahj Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the TTU 46Similar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 11
OWN 46
-1
91.6%
Behren Morton sacked by Nelson Ceaser for a loss of 1 yard to the TTU 45Similar
Q3 1:58
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
92.7%
Austin McNamara punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:449% → 8%
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
91.2%
Stacy Sneed run for 4 yds to the HOU 12Similar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+11
90.9%
Donovan Smith run for 11 yds to the HOU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-10
90.7%
QB Keeper SMITH, Donovan rush to the right for no gain to the HOU23 (LINTON, Steve). PENALTY HOU Holding on JOHNSON, Tyler enforced 10 yards from the HOU23 to the HOU13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 13
+1
92.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 1 yd to the HOU 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 14
+6
92.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 6 yds to the HOU 20Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 20
0
92.2%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 13
OWN 20
0
92.3%
Laine Wilkins punt for 56 yds, downed at the TTU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:3594% → 94%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
94.1%
Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the TTU 26Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+15
94.2%
Tahj Brooks run for 15 yds to the TTU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
94.5%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
94.5%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
94.2%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:39
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
93.9%
Austin McNamara punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:458% → 7%
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
92.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Dalton Carnes for a loss of 5 yards to the HOU 15Similar
Q4 12:39
2ND & 15
OWN 15
0
92.4%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:39
3RD & 15
OWN 15
0
92.5%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:54
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
92.7%
Laine Wilkins punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 18TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 3:0795% → 99%
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
95.3%
Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the TTU 47Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+4
95.3%
Behren Morton pass complete to Baylor Cupp for 4 yds to the HOU 49Similar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+6
95.1%
Tahj Brooks run for 6 yds to the HOU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
95.3%
Cam'Ron Valdez run for 2 yds to the HOU 41Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+41
99.0%
Cam'Ron Valdez run for 41 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 2:081% → 1%
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.9%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for no gain to the HOU 25Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
98.9%
SMITH, Donovan pass to the right complete for 9 yards to JOHNSON JR., Stephon caught at the HOU12 and advanced to the HOU34 (ROBERTS, Ben). PENALTY HOU Holding on UNIJE, Reuben enforced 10 yards from the HOU25 to the HOU15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+1
99.0%
Brandon Campbell run for 1 yd to the HOU 16Similar
Q4 8:47
3RD & 19
OWN 16
0
99.0%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:39
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
99.3%
Laine Wilkins punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Xavier White at the TTU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 4:2999% → 99%
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
99.1%
Nehemiah Martinez I run for 2 yds to the TTU 44Similar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+7
99.1%
Nehemiah Martinez I run for 7 yds to the HOU 49Similar
Q4 6:39
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+2
99.1%
Behren Morton run for 2 yds to the HOU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
99.1%
Tyler King run for 4 yds to the HOU 43Similar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+2
99.1%
Nehemiah Martinez I run for 2 yds to the HOU 41Similar
Q4 6:39
3RD & 4
OPP 41
0
99.1%
Nehemiah Martinez I run for no gain to the HOU 41Similar
Q4 2:10
4TH & 4
OPP 41
0
99.4%
Austin McNamara punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21END OF GAME
5 plays · 32 yds · 2:101% → 1%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.5%
Parker Jenkins run for 2 yds to the HOU 22Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-1
99.5%
Parker Jenkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 21Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+12
99.5%
Parker Jenkins run for 12 yds to the HOU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
99.4%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 13 yds to the HOU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
99.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 6 yds to the TTU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:16
Donovan Smith pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 41 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)
-11.8
TD · Q3 9:22
Behren Morton pass complete to Myles Price for 11 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)
+10.6
TD · Q2 7:18
Loic Fouonji 7 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Gino Garcia Kick)
+8.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com