Try the model
KU

Kansas 14 at Texas 40

TEX
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadKU aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreKU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:25 · Jason Bean run for a loss of 6 yards to the KU 32 Jason Bean fumbled, recovered by TEX Jahdae Barron
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 108Pregame prior+13.4Home team on offense+6.3Score differential+0.4Garbage-time factor+0.1Blowout margin+0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:05: Daniel Hishaw Jr. 18 Yd Run (Seth Keller Kick) — KU win probability +3.3 pts (now 19%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q3 13:28: Jonathon Brooks run for 54 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK) — TEX win probability +6.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:36: Jason Bean pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 58 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK) — KU win probability +9.5 pts (now 21%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:33: Jonathon Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — TEX win probability +6.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:06: Quinn Ewers pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 9 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK) — TEX win probability +5.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 6 of 6KU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:51KU 4th & 7 at TEX 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    14.6%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:18KU 4th & 8 at KU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:01TEX 4th & 3 at KU 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.9%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    84.7%−0.2
    86% to make
    Punt
    83.3%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:52TEX 4th & 8 at KU 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.4%
    90% to make
    Punt
    82.8%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:15TEX 4th & 12 at KU 12, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    77.6%−2.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:16KU 4th & 2 at KU 33, down 6
    Close callPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:45TEX 4th & 8 at KU 32, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.7%
    51% to make
    Punt
    82.0%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:55KU 4th & 10 at KU 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:31TEX 4th & 11 at KU 29, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    74.3%−5.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:25KU 4th & 1 at KU 38, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.6%−2.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:31KU 4th & 6 at KU 29, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:25KU 4th & 12 at KU 22, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:34KU 4th & 4 at TEX 29, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    58% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:15TEX 4th & 1 at KU 45, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 3 of 5KU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:06TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:05KU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:28TEX Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:36KU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:33TEX Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    90.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:06TEX Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:34TEX Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:5714% → 14%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
86.2%
Devin Neal run for 26 yds to the TEX 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
86.0%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Quentin SkinnerSimilar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-6
85.8%
Luke Grimm run for a loss of 6 yards to the KU 45 Luke Grimm fumbled, recovered by KU Luke GrimmSimilar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 16
OWN 45
+9
85.8%
Jason Bean run for 9 yds to the TEX 46Similar
Q1 12:51
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
85.6%
Damon Greaves punt for 34 yds, downed at the TEX 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2TD
7 plays · 88 yds · 2:3486% → 86%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
85.6%
Jonathon Brooks run for 8 yds to the TEX 20Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+12
85.5%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 12 yds to the TEX 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+17
85.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 17 yds to the TEX 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+20
85.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 20 yds to the KU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-4
85.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for a loss of 4 yards to the KU 35Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 14
OPP 35
+5
85.1%
Jonathon Brooks run for 5 yds to the KU 30Similar
Q1 10:06
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+30
85.9%
Quinn Ewers run for 30 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 1:4414% → 14%
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.6%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Mason FairchildSimilar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
85.6%
Devin Neal run for 10 yds to the KU 35 Kansas Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the KU 25Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
85.7%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 11 yds to the KU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
85.4%
Devin Neal run for 2 yds to the KU 38Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
85.4%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Quentin SkinnerSimilar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
85.5%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Trevor WilsonSimilar
Q1 8:18
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
85.7%
Damon Greaves punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Xavier Worthy at the TEX 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4FG
14 plays · 76 yds · 6:1986% → 85%
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
85.6%
Jonathon Brooks run for 7 yds to the TEX 23Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+23
85.5%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jonathon Brooks for 23 yds to the TEX 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+23
85.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 23 yds to the KU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
85.8%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Adonai MitchellSimilar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+5
85.8%
CJ Baxter run for 5 yds to the KU 26Similar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+7
85.6%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 7 yds to the KU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-4
85.7%
Adonai Mitchell run for a loss of 4 yards to the KU 23Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 14
OPP 23
+1
85.5%
Quinn Ewers run for 1 yd to the KU 22Similar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 13
OPP 22
+10
85.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 10 yds to the KU 12Similar
Q1 3:01
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+4
85.1%
Jonathon Brooks run for 4 yds to the KU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
85.5%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Jordan WhittingtonSimilar
Q1 2:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
85.5%
Jonathon Brooks run for no gain to the KU 8Similar
Q1 1:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
85.2%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Jordan WhittingtonSimilar
Q1 1:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
85.2%
Bert Auburn 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 5TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:3515% → 19%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
85.1%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 5 yds to the KU 30Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
84.9%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 6 yds to the KU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
84.7%
Jason Bean pass complete to Mason Fairchild for 18 yds to the TEX 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
84.2%
Devin Neal run for 1 yd to the TEX 45Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+18
81.0%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. 18 Yd Run (Seth Keller Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6FG
6 plays · 63 yds · 2:3882% → 83%
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+67
81.7%
Jonathon Brooks run for 67 yds to the KU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
82.7%
CJ Baxter run for a loss of 2 yards to the KU 10Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-3
82.6%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Austin Booker and Hayden Hatcher for a loss of 3 yards to the KU 13Similar
Q2 11:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+1
81.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to CJ Baxter for 1 yd to the KU 12Similar
Q2 11:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+30
83.3%
Bert Auburn 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3917% → 18%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
82.6%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the KU 24Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
82.6%
Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 5 yds to the KU 29Similar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+4
82.4%
Jason Bean run for 4 yds to the KU 33Similar
Q2 9:16
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
82.3%
Damon Greaves punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Xavier Worthy at the TEX 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8MISSED FG
9 plays · 48 yds · 4:1583% → 83%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
83.4%
Jonathon Brooks run for 8 yds to the TEX 28Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+8
83.8%
Jonathon Brooks run for 8 yds to the TEX 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
84.1%
Jonathon Brooks run for 12 yds to the TEX 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
84.6%
CJ Baxter run for 5 yds to the KU 47Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+14
84.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 14 yds to the KU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
84.8%
CJ Baxter run for 3 yds to the KU 30Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 7
OPP 30
-2
84.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Keilan Robinson for a loss of 2 yards to the KU 32Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
84.2%
Jonathon Brooks run for no gain to the KU 32Similar
Q2 4:45
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+50
83.2%
Bert Auburn 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:4419% → 18%
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
81.3%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Lawrence ArnoldSimilar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+5
81.6%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 5 yds to the KU 37Similar
Q2 3:41
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
81.2%
Jason Bean run for no gain to the KU 37Similar
Q2 3:05
4TH & 5
OWN 37
-5
81.9%
Kansas Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the KU 32Similar
Q2 2:55
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
82.4%
Damon Greaves punt for 49 yds, downed at the TEX 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10INT
10 plays · 52 yds · 2:4383% → 84%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
82.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 8 yds to the TEX 27Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+5
83.4%
Jonathon Brooks run for 5 yds to the TEX 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
82.9%
Brooks, Jonathon rush for 4 yards to the TEXAS36, PENALTY TEXAS holding 10 yards to the TEXAS22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 20
OWN 22
-5
82.6%
Ewers, Quinn pass incomplete to Helm, Gunnar, PENALTY TEXAS ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the TEXAS17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 25
OWN 17
+6
82.6%
CJ Baxter run for 6 yds to the TEX 23Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 19
OWN 23
+12
82.4%
CJ Baxter run for 12 yds to the TEX 35Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+22
82.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 22 yds to the KU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
84.0%
Quinn Ewers run for 3 yds to the KU 40Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+11
84.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 11 yds to the KU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-6
84.3%
Quinn Ewers pass intercepted Cornell Wheeler return for 6 yds to the KU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
80.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the KU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 1:1783% → 91%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
82.7%
Jonathon Brooks run for 2 yds to the TEX 31Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 8
OWN 31
0
82.6%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Adonai MitchellSimilar
Q3 14:12
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+10
82.0%
Quinn Ewers run for 10 yds to the TEX 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
83.7%
Brooks, Jonathon rush for 3 yards to the TEXAS44, PENALTY KANSAS substitution infraction 5 yards to the TEXAS46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 5
OWN 46
0
83.9%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Keilan RobinsonSimilar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+54
90.5%
Jonathon Brooks run for 54 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 13TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4112% → 21%
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.5%
Devin Neal run for no gain to the KU 25Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
88.8%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jared Casey for 16 yds to the KU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
88.5%
Devin Neal run for 1 yd to the KU 42Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+58
79.0%
Jason Bean pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 58 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14MISSED FG
13 plays · 46 yds · 4:5682% → 80%
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
81.8%
CJ Baxter run for 3 yds to the TEX 28Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
81.8%
CJ Baxter run for 4 yds to the TEX 32Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
81.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 5 yds to the TEX 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
82.3%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Adonai MitchellSimilar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
82.0%
CJ Baxter run for 4 yds to the TEX 41Similar
Q3 9:13
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+7
82.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 7 yds to the TEX 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
83.2%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Jereme Robinson for a loss of 2 yards to the TEX 46Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+26
82.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Johntay Cook II for 26 yds to the KU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-15
83.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 15 yards to the KU 43Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 25
OPP 43
0
82.2%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Gunnar HelmSimilar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 25
OPP 43
+14
81.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 14 yds to the KU 29Similar
Q3 6:31
4TH & 11
OPP 29
+47
80.3%
Bert Auburn 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 15FUMBLE
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:5921% → 18%
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
78.7%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Devin NealSimilar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+4
79.0%
Devin Neal run for 4 yds to the KU 33Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+5
79.0%
Texas Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the KU 38Similar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 1
OWN 38
0
76.1%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for no gain to the KU 38Similar
Q3 4:25
4TH & 1
OWN 38
-6
81.7%
Jason Bean run for a loss of 6 yards to the KU 32 Jason Bean fumbled, recovered by TEX Jahdae BarronSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16TD
5 plays · 32 yds · 1:3785% → 93%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
85.2%
Jonathon Brooks run for 7 yds to the KU 25Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+11
85.1%
Jonathon Brooks run for 11 yds to the KU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
85.1%
Jonathon Brooks run for 3 yds to the KU 11Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+10
86.2%
CJ Baxter run for 10 yds to the KU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.6%
Jonathon Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:549% → 8%
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
91.1%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 4 yds to the KU 29Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
90.6%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Luke GrimmSimilar
Q3 1:42
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
91.0%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Luke GrimmSimilar
Q3 1:31
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
91.6%
Damon Greaves punt for 43 yds, downed at the TEX 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 3:1493% → 98%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
92.5%
CJ Baxter run for 2 yds to the TEX 30Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+39
92.5%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 39 yds to the KU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
93.2%
CJ Baxter run for 1 yd to the KU 30Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+9
93.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 9 yds to the KU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
93.0%
CJ Baxter run for 11 yds to the KU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
93.3%
CJ Baxter run for no gain to the KU 10Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
93.4%
Jonathon Brooks run for 1 yd to the KU 9Similar
Q4 13:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
98.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 9 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:303% → 3%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
96.8%
Jason Bean pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-4
97.0%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the KU 20Similar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 14
OWN 20
+2
97.1%
Jason Bean run for 2 yds to the KU 22Similar
Q4 11:25
4TH & 12
OWN 22
0
97.2%
Damon Greaves punt for 53 yds, downed at the TEX 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:3698% → 100%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.4%
Jonathon Brooks run for 6 yds to the TEX 31Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
98.5%
Jonathon Brooks run for 9 yds to the TEX 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
98.6%
Jonathon Brooks run for no gain to the TEX 40Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
98.6%
CJ Baxter run for 3 yds to the TEX 43Similar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+15
98.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to CJ Baxter for 15 yds to the KU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+18
98.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 18 yds to the KU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
98.8%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Jordan WhittingtonSimilar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+11
98.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 11 yds to the KU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
98.9%
Jaydon Blue run for 2 yds to the KU 11Similar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
99.0%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Jordan WhittingtonSimilar
Q4 6:06
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+10
99.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 10 yds to the KU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Quinn Ewers run for 1 yd for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 21DOWNS
13 plays · 60 yds · 2:410% → 0%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
99.9%
Jason Bean run for 6 yds to the KU 17Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+4
99.9%
Jason Bean pass complete to Devin Neal for 4 yds to the KU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
99.9%
Devin Neal run for 1 yd to the KU 22Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+2
99.9%
Jason Bean pass complete to Luke Grimm for 2 yds to the KU 24Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+14
99.9%
Bean, Jason pass incomplete to Arnold, Lawrence, PENALTY TEXAS roughing passer 14 yards to the KANSAS38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KANSAS.Similar
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
99.9%
Jason Bean pass complete to Doug Emilien for 15 yds to the TEX 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
99.9%
Jason Bean pass complete to Mason Fairchild for 12 yds to the TEX 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
99.9%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Trevor WilsonSimilar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
99.9%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Torry LocklinSimilar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+6
99.9%
Jason Bean pass complete to Devin Neal for 6 yds to the TEX 29Similar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 4
OPP 29
0
99.9%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Luke GrimmSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22END OF GAME
5 plays · 28 yds · 2:05100% → 100%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+17
99.9%
Jaydon Blue run for 17 yds to the TEX 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
99.9%
Jaydon Blue run for 9 yds to the KU 45Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 1
OPP 45
0
99.9%
Jaydon Blue run for no gain to the KU 45Similar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 1
OPP 45
0
99.9%
Quintrevion Wisner run for no gain to the KU 45Similar
Q4 0:15
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+2
99.9%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 2 yds to the KU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:36
Jason Bean pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 58 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)
-9.5
TD · Q3 13:28
Jonathon Brooks run for 54 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)
+6.6
TD · Q3 2:33
Jonathon Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+6.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com