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CIN

Cincinnati 27 at BYU 35

BYU
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 29, 2023 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:33 · Ryan Rehkow punt for 66 yds , returns for no gain to the CIN 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 71Home team on offense−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Score differential−0.7Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3Pregame prior+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:06: Kedon Slovis pass complete to Darius Lassiter for 22 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK) — BYU win probability +14.9 pts (now 68%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:38: LJ Martin run for 29 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK) — BYU win probability +12.6 pts (now 77%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:53: Kedon Slovis pass complete to Chase Roberts for 59 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK) — BYU win probability +13.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:59: Emory Jones pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 23 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK) — CIN win probability +13.9 pts (now 27%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:41: LJ Martin run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK) — BYU win probability +9.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8CIN made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 11:19BYU 4th & 8 at CIN 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:18CIN 4th & 1 at BYU 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    41.7%−0.7
    40% to make
    Punt
    41.6%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:48BYU 4th & 8 at BYU 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:42CIN 4th & 1 at BYU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    39.9%−1.3
    54% to make
    Punt
    39.3%−2.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:24BYU 4th & 5 at BYU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:41CIN 4th & 9 at BYU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    46.1%−0.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:33BYU 4th & 6 at BYU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−0.9
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:33BYU 4th & 6 at BYU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−0.9
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:44CIN 4th & 5 at BYU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%−1.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    42.8%−6.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:40CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 34, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:24CIN 4th & 4 at BYU 4, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.6%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    15.0%−7.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:00BYU 4th & 13 at BYU 22, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%−5.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:35CIN 4th & 20 at CIN 15, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−2.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:31BYU 4th & 27 at CIN 27, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−1.0
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.7%
    62% to make
    Punt
    94.7%−2.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:42CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 36, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.4%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:36BYU 4th & 16 at CIN 42, up 15
    Close callPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    97.9%
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CIN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 8:28BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:59CIN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:06BYU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:38BYU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:53BYU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:59CIN Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:41BYU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:26CIN Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BYUDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 3:4152% → 53%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
52.3%
LJ Martin run for 7 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
52.3%
LJ Martin run for 2 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
52.3%
Kedon Slovis run for 3 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
52.3%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Darius LassiterSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+13
52.3%
LJ Martin run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+3
52.3%
LJ Martin run for 3 yds to the CIN 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+1
52.3%
Miles Davis run for 1 yd to the CIN 48Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
52.3%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Miles DavisSimilar
Q1 11:19
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
52.8%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2INT TD
9 plays · 19 yds · 2:5147% → 45%
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
52.8%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the CIN 21Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 19
OWN 11
+10
52.9%
Corey Kiner run for 10 yds to the CIN 21Similar
Q1 11:19
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+12
53.0%
Corey Kiner run for 12 yds to the CIN 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
52.7%
Aaron Turner run for 6 yds to the CIN 39Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 4
OWN 39
0
52.5%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Braden SmithSimilar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 4
OWN 39
-42
55.2%
Jakob Robinson 42 Yd Interception Return (Will Ferrin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3DOWNS
9 plays · 33 yds · 4:1044% → 44%
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
55.6%
Corey Kiner run for no gain to the CIN 30Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
55.7%
Myles Montgomery run for 5 yds to the CIN 35Similar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+5
55.6%
Emory Jones run for 5 yds to the CIN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
55.3%
Emory Jones pass complete to Corey Kiner for 3 yds to the CIN 43Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+11
55.2%
Corey Kiner run for 11 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
54.9%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Dee WigginsSimilar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+8
55.0%
Corey Kiner run for 8 yds to the BYU 38Similar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+1
54.8%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the BYU 37Similar
Q1 4:18
4TH & 1
OPP 37
0
56.5%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Payten SingletarySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3062% → 61%
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
61.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to LJ Martin for 2 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
61.7%
Keelan Marion run for no gain to the BYU 39Similar
Q1 4:18
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
61.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Keanu HillSimilar
Q1 2:48
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
61.1%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the CIN 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5TD
19 plays · 90 yds · 6:4942% → 49%
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
58.1%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 9 yds to the CIN 19Similar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+3
57.8%
Myles Montgomery run for 3 yds to the CIN 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
58.1%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Dee WigginsSimilar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 15
OWN 17
+11
58.3%
Myles Montgomery run for 11 yds to the CIN 28Similar
Q1 2:48
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+8
58.1%
Myles Montgomery run for 8 yds to the CIN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
57.5%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Aaron TurnerSimilar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+10
58.2%
Emory Jones run for 10 yds to the CIN 41Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+5
58.4%
Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 5 yds to the CIN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
57.7%
Myles Montgomery run for no gain to the CIN 46Similar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+14
59.0%
Emory Jones run for 14 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
58.1%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Donovan OllieSimilar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+1
58.1%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the BYU 39Similar
Q2 14:42
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+8
58.4%
Emory Jones run for 8 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q2 14:42
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+2
58.8%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the BYU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
57.2%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the BYU 28Similar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+1
57.3%
Emory Jones pass complete to Myles Montgomery for 1 yd to the BYU 27Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+27
51.0%
Chamon Metayer 27 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Carter Brown Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3556% → 56%
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
56.0%
LJ Martin run for 3 yds to the BYU 38Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
57.0%
Deion Smith run for 2 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
56.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Keanu HillSimilar
Q2 9:24
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
55.6%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CIN 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 41 yds · 4:4347% → 48%
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
53.0%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the CIN 17Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+9
53.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 9 yds to the CIN 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
52.8%
Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the CIN 31Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+23
52.3%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 23 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
50.7%
Myles Montgomery run for 5 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+1
50.4%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the BYU 42Similar
Q2 9:24
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+2
51.1%
Emory Jones run for 2 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q2 4:41
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
51.6%
Mason Fletcher punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Hobbs Nyberg at the BYU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0858% → 56%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
57.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Keanu HillSimilar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+4
57.5%
LJ Martin run for 4 yds to the BYU 9Similar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 6
OWN 9
0
56.6%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Chase RobertsSimilar
Q2 3:33
4TH & 6
OWN 9
0
56.1%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 66 yds , returns for no gain to the CIN 37Similar
Q2 3:33
4TH & 6
OWN 9
0
56.1%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 66 yds , returns for no gain to the CIN 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9FG
10 plays · 42 yds · 2:4950% → 55%
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
50.3%
Myles Montgomery run for 11 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
49.3%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 14 yds to the BYU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
47.9%
Myles Montgomery run for 5 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+2
47.6%
Emory Jones run for 2 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q2 3:33
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+5
49.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 5 yds to the BYU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
47.6%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the BYU 20Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 9
OPP 20
0
47.6%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Dee WigginsSimilar
Q2 3:33
3RD & 9
OPP 20
+4
49.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Evan Prater for 4 yds to the BYU 16Similar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+33
45.2%
Carter Brown 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10TD
5 plays · 82 yds · 0:3048% → 68%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+23
47.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Keanu Hill for 23 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+24
50.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Chase Roberts for 24 yds to the CIN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
68.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Darius Lassiter for 22 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
69.5%
Ethan Wright run for 4 yds to the CIN 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2040% → 39%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
60.5%
Corey Kiner run for 8 yds to the CIN 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
58.2%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Xzavier HendersonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
59.9%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the CIN 34Similar
Q3 13:40
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
61.3%
Mason Fletcher punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Hobbs Nyberg at the BYU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 2:0262% → 77%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+33
61.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Chase Roberts for 33 yds to the CIN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
64.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Isaac Rex for 14 yds to the CIN 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
65.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Keanu Hill for 3 yds to the CIN 29Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 13
OPP 29
0
64.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Isaac RexSimilar
Q3 11:38
3RD & 13
OPP 29
+29
76.9%
LJ Martin run for 29 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14FG
16 plays · 71 yds · 6:1425% → 28%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.7%
Myles Montgomery run for no gain to the CIN 25Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
74.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 6 yds to the CIN 31Similar
Q3 11:38
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+10
74.7%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 10 yds to the CIN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
73.2%
Myles Montgomery run for no gain to the CIN 41Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+17
73.7%
Emory Jones pass complete to Aaron Turner for 17 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
72.2%
Emory Jones run for no gain to the BYU 42Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+7
72.5%
Emory Jones pass complete to Evan Prater for 7 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q3 11:38
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+15
71.8%
Emory Jones run for 15 yds to the BYU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
70.4%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Chamon MetayerSimilar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+10
70.9%
Corey Kiner run for 10 yds to the BYU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
70.4%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the BYU 7Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
70.4%
Emory Jones run for 3 yds to the BYU 4Similar
Q3 5:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
74.4%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Corey KinerSimilar
Q3 5:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
72.5%
Carter Brown 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3180% → 92%
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
79.5%
LJ Martin run for 2 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+10
79.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Chase Roberts for 10 yds to the CIN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
80.0%
Shotgun Smith,Deion rush left for 4 yards gain to the UC44 (Wodtly,Justin) PENALTY BYU Holding (Fitzgerald,Ian) 10 yards from UC48 to BYU42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 20
OWN 42
+1
78.6%
Deion Smith run for 1 yd to the BYU 41Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 21
OWN 41
+59
91.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Chase Roberts for 59 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5414% → 27%
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
86.2%
Myles Montgomery run for 10 yds to the CIN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
87.5%
Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 23 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
86.5%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Myles MontgomerySimilar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+19
86.5%
Emory Jones run for 19 yds to the BYU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
72.6%
Emory Jones pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 23 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:5984% → 82%
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.5%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Chase RobertsSimilar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
83.2%
LJ Martin run for 3 yds to the BYU 22Similar
Q3 0:59
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
82.3%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Isaac RexSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
82.0%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 53 yds , Braden Smith returns for no gain to the CIN 15 Braden Smith fumbled, recovered by BYU Austin RiggsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:1986% → 98%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
85.8%
Miles Davis run for 7 yds to the CIN 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+2
85.8%
LJ Martin pass complete to Kedon Slovis for 2 yds to the CIN 6Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+1
84.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Chase Roberts for 1 yd to the CIN 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
85.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to for 4 ydsSimilar
Q4 12:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.1%
LJ Martin run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:066% → 5%
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.6%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Xzavier HendersonSimilar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
93.6%
Emory Jones sacked by Tyler Batty for a loss of 10 yards to the CIN 15Similar
Q4 12:41
3RD & 20
OWN 15
0
93.8%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Braden SmithSimilar
Q4 11:35
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
94.6%
Mason Fletcher punt for 46 yds , Hobbs Nyberg returns for no gain to the BYU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20MISSED FG
14 plays · 35 yds · 7:0499% → 99%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
98.5%
LJ Martin run for 2 yds to the BYU 36Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+13
98.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Keelan Marion for 13 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
98.6%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Chase RobertsSimilar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+11
98.5%
Miles Davis run for 11 yds to the CIN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
98.6%
Miles Davis run for no gain to the CIN 40Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+21
98.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Keanu Hill for 21 yds to the CIN 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
98.6%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Keanu HillSimilar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+9
98.6%
LJ Martin run for 9 yds to the CIN 10Similar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+1
98.6%
Kedon Slovis run for 1 yd to the CIN 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+18
98.6%
run for 18 yds to the CIN 27 fumbled, recovered by BYU LJ MartinSimilar
Q4 11:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 27
0
98.6%
LJ Martin run for no gain to the CIN 27Similar
Q4 11:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 27
0
98.5%
LJ Martin run for no gain to the CIN 27Similar
Q4 4:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 27
+44
99.2%
Will Ferrin 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:492% → 2%
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
97.7%
Emory Jones run for 1 yd to the CIN 28Similar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+5
97.8%
Emory Jones run for 5 yds to the CIN 33Similar
Q4 4:31
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+3
97.8%
Myles Montgomery run for 3 yds to the CIN 36Similar
Q4 2:42
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
98.1%
Corey Kiner run for no gain to the CIN 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · -6 yds · 1:06100% → 99%
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
99.6%
LJ Martin run for 1 yd to the CIN 37Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+1
99.7%
LJ Martin run for 1 yd to the CIN 38Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 12
OPP 38
+1
99.7%
Chase Roberts run for 1 yd to the CIN 37Similar
Q4 2:30
4TH & 11
OPP 37
-5
99.7%
PENALTY BYU Delay Of Game 5 yards from UC37 to UC42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:36
4TH & 16
OPP 42
0
99.3%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 1:102% → 6%
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
98.3%
Emory Jones pass complete to Corey Kiner for 5 yds to the CIN 25Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+8
98.3%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 8 yds to the CIN 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
98.3%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 5 yds to the CIN 38Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+13
98.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 13 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+20
98.2%
Emory Jones run for 20 yds to the BYU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
97.5%
Emory Jones pass complete to Corey Kiner for 4 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 16
OPP 35
+4
97.8%
Emory Jones pass complete to Myles Montgomery for 4 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q4 0:26
3RD & 12
OPP 31
+31
93.8%
Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 31 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
99.0%
Kneel down by BYU at UC46 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:06
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Darius Lassiter for 22 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
+14.9
TD · Q3 0:59
Emory Jones pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 23 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)
-13.9
TD · Q3 2:53
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Chase Roberts for 59 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
+13.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com