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SMU

SMU 17 at TCU 34

TCU
2023 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:32 · Jordy Sandy punt for 44 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 27Home team on offense−0.1Pregame prior+14.5Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:58: Chandler Morris pass complete to Jared Wiley for 2 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +8.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:54: Camar Wheaton run for 1 yd for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +9.2 pts (now 32%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. FG · Q3 11:05: Griffin Kell 35 yd FG GOOD — TCU win probability +5.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 6:14: Griffin Kell 24 yd FG GOOD — TCU win probability +4.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:54: Emani Bailey run for 24 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +9.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9SMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 8:43SMU 4th & 2 at TCU 6, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.3%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    31.4%−1.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:32TCU 4th & 3 at SMU 46, down 3
    Close callPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    66.1%−0.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:17SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 11, up 3
    Close callPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:11TCU 4th & 1 at SMU 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    64.8%−0.8
    81% to make
    Punt
    62.4%−3.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:05SMU 4th & 2 at TCU 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    32.1%−0.6
    62% to make
    Punt
    29.6%−3.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:05TCU 4th & 3 at SMU 23, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    68.1%−0.4
    70% to make
    Punt
    65.2%−3.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:23TCU 4th & 1 at TCU 34, up 4
    Close callPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:03SMU 4th & 8 at SMU 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:05TCU 4th & 14 at SMU 17, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−2.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    63.3%−6.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:31SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−1.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:14TCU 4th & 5 at SMU 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    71.5%−7.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:27SMU 4th & 2 at TCU 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    16.3%−2.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    15.8%−2.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:56TCU 4th & 7 at SMU 7, up 17
    Close callWent for it · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.8%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    95.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    91.4%−3.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:35TCU 4th & 4 at SMU 28, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    96.8%−0.2
    60% to make
    Punt
    95.2%−1.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:35SMU 4th & 2 at TCU 20, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    3.2%−0.3
    75% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−2.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:18TCU 4th & 2 at SMU 36, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    94.9%−0.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    94.7%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4SMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 0:16TCU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:58TCU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:54SMU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:54TCU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:47SMU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.4%−0.4
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:18TCU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1FG
16 plays · 69 yds · 6:1732% → 34%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
67.6%
Preston Stone run for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
67.6%
Camar Wheaton run for 8 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
67.6%
Camar Wheaton run for 2 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+5
67.6%
Preston Stone pass complete to Romello Brinson for 5 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+7
67.6%
Camar Wheaton run for 7 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
67.6%
Camar Wheaton run for 3 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+21
67.6%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 21 yds to the TCU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
67.6%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to RJ MarylandSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+6
67.6%
Preston Stone pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 6 yds to the TCU 19Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+5
67.6%
Preston Stone run for 5 yds to the TCU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
67.6%
Preston Stone pass complete to for 8 yds to the TCU 14Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+9
67.6%
Preston Stone run for 9 yds to the TCU 5Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 5
-1
67.6%
Preston Stone sacked by Namdi Obiazor for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 6Similar
Q1 8:43
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+24
66.1%
Collin Rogers 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 29 yds · 4:0566% → 66%
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
66.2%
Jaylon Robinson run for 1 yd to the TCU 26Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
66.2%
Emani Bailey run for 6 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
66.2%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jared Wiley for 5 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
66.4%
Chandler Morris sacked by Isaiah Nwokobia for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 36Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+7
66.3%
Chandler Morris run for 7 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+4
66.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jared Wiley for 4 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
66.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Blake Nowell for 7 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+2
67.0%
Emani Bailey run for 2 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
66.9%
Emani Bailey run for 2 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q1 4:32
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
65.7%
Jordy Sandy punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1534% → 34%
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
65.9%
Camar Wheaton run for 4 yds to the SMU 6Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+5
65.9%
Camar Wheaton run for 5 yds to the SMU 11Similar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 1
OWN 11
0
65.9%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:17
4TH & 1
OWN 11
0
66.3%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4TD
12 plays · 46 yds · 3:0167% → 70%
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
66.9%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Jaylon RobinsonSimilar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
66.8%
Emani Bailey run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:17
3RD & 14
50
+14
65.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 14 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
66.9%
Emani Bailey run for 11 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
67.4%
Emani Bailey run for 3 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 13
OPP 28
0
66.8%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Trent BattleSimilar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 13
OPP 28
+12
65.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to JoJo Earle for 12 yds to the SMU 16Similar
Q1 1:11
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+2
65.2%
JP Richardson run for 2 yds to the SMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
66.4%
Emani Bailey run for 5 yds to the SMU 9Similar
Q1 0:16
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+9
70.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jared Wiley for 9 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5DOWNS
11 plays · 43 yds · 3:5530% → 31%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
70.4%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 8 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
69.6%
Jaylan Knighton run for 4 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
70.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Stone,Preston pass incomplete deep right to Daniels, Jr.,Roderick PENALTY SMU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Maryland,RJ) 5 yards from SMU37 to SMU32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+18
70.5%
Jaylan Knighton run for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+4
68.9%
Jaylan Knighton run for 4 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+11
69.0%
Camar Wheaton run for 11 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
68.2%
Camar Wheaton run for 3 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+5
68.0%
Preston Stone pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 5 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 27
0
68.4%
Camar Wheaton run for no gain to the TCU 27Similar
Q2 11:05
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+5
69.1%
Jaylan Knighton run for 5 yds to the TCU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 4:0769% → 79%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+38
69.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to JP Richardson for 38 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-4
70.7%
Chandler Morris sacked by Je'lin Samuels for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 34Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 14
OPP 34
0
69.9%
Trey Sanders run for no gain to the SMU 34Similar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 14
OPP 34
+11
69.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 11 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q2 11:05
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+3
69.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Major Everhart for 3 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
70.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Trey Sanders for 3 yds to the SMU 17Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+1
70.7%
Trey Sanders run for 1 yd to the SMU 16Similar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+10
70.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 10 yds to the SMU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
70.7%
Trey Sanders run for 4 yds to the SMU 2Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
78.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jared Wiley for 2 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0422% → 32%
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+43
77.8%
Preston Stone pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 43 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+11
75.9%
Preston Stone run for 11 yds to the TCU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
74.7%
Tyler Lavine run for 7 yds to the TCU 12Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+8
74.7%
TCU Penalty, Face Mask (8 yards) (Jamoi Hodge) to the TCU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
74.9%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Key'Shawn SmithSimilar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+2
75.0%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 2 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q2 4:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
77.2%
Preston Stone run for 2 yds to the TCU 3Similar
Q2 4:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
77.2%
Preston Stone run for 2 yds to the TCU 1Similar
Q2 2:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.0%
Camar Wheaton run for 1 yd for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:3171% → 70%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
71.0%
PENALTY TCU False Start (Williams,Savion) 5 yards from TCU25 to TCU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+11
70.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Emani Bailey for 11 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
71.8%
Emani Bailey run for 2 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q2 2:54
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
71.2%
Emani Bailey run for 1 yd to the TCU 34Similar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
69.5%
Jordy Sandy punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Roderick Daniels Jr. at the SMU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:2028% → 27%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
71.9%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to RJ MarylandSimilar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+13
72.4%
Jaylan Knighton run for 13 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
70.7%
Jaylan Knighton run for 5 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+2
69.4%
Camar Wheaton run for 2 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 3
OWN 49
0
68.7%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Moochie DixonSimilar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 3
OWN 49
-5
70.6%
PENALTY SMU Delay Of Game 5 yards from SMU49 to SMU44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
72.8%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
70.4%
run for 2 yds to the TCU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11FG
14 plays · 58 yds · 3:5568% → 74%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
68.4%
Emani Bailey run for 7 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
69.5%
Emani Bailey run for 5 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
69.2%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to JP RichardsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
68.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Blake Nowell for 9 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+5
69.7%
Emani Bailey run for 5 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+21
70.7%
Chandler Morris run for 21 yds to the SMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
71.4%
Emani Bailey run for 2 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+13
71.4%
Chandler Morris run for 13 yds to the SMU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-10
71.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Morris,Chandler rush right for 2 yards loss to the SMU15, End Of Play PENALTY TCU Holding (Lanz,John) 10 yards from SMU13 to SMU23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 23
+6
71.2%
Emani Bailey run for 6 yds to the SMU 17Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 17
0
70.8%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to JoJo EarleSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 17
0
69.0%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to JP RichardsonSimilar
Q3 11:05
4TH & 14
OPP 17
+35
74.0%
Griffin Kell 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:3426% → 24%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.1%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
74.3%
SMU Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
75.3%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Romello BrinsonSimilar
Q3 10:31
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
76.2%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13FG
12 plays · 54 yds · 4:1777% → 82%
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
77.1%
Corey Wren run for 9 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+3
77.6%
Corey Wren run for 3 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
77.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DJ Allen for 7 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+4
77.7%
Emani Bailey run for 4 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
77.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bailey,Emani rush right for 1 yard gain to the SMU36 (Roberts,Elijah; Kilgore,Alex) PENALTY TCU Illegal Shift 5 yards from SMU37 to SMU42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+19
76.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Chase Curtis for 19 yds to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
78.1%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Major EverhartSimilar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+12
78.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Warren Thompson for 12 yds to the SMU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
78.0%
Emani Bailey run for 2 yds to the SMU 9Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+5
78.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Major Everhart for 5 yds to the SMU 4Similar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+2
77.0%
Emani Bailey run for 2 yds to the SMU 6Similar
Q3 6:14
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+24
81.9%
Griffin Kell 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14DOWNS
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:4719% → 19%
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
81.0%
Camar Wheaton run for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+27
80.5%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 27 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
78.6%
Camar Wheaton run for 5 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+2
78.2%
Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+1
78.4%
Jaylan Knighton run for 1 yd to the TCU 36Similar
Q3 3:27
4TH & 2
OPP 36
0
81.3%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to RJ MarylandSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 1:3384% → 95%
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
83.8%
Emani Bailey run for 11 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
84.5%
Emani Bailey run for 2 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+17
84.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jared Wiley for 17 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
84.9%
Emani Bailey run for 10 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
94.5%
Emani Bailey run for 24 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16INT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:547% → 6%
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
93.4%
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 10 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
93.0%
Preston Stone pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 19 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
92.9%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:54
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-10
92.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Wheaton,Camar rush left for 2 yards gain to the TCU44 (Newton,Josh) PENALTY SMU Holding (Matthews-Harris,Nolan) 10 yards from TCU46 to SMU44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:54
2ND & 20
OWN 44
0
93.4%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Nolan Matthews-HarrisSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 20
OWN 44
0
94.3%
Preston Stone pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17DOWNS
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:0495% → 95%
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
95.2%
Savion Williams run for no gain to the SMU 10Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
95.2%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Jared WileySimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
95.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Blake Nowell for 3 yds to the SMU 7Similar
Q4 13:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+8
95.2%
Jordy Sandy run for 8 yds to the SMU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18INT
5 plays · 70 yds · 1:445% → 5%
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+16
95.0%
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 16 yds to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+51
94.6%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 51 yds to the TCU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
93.7%
Camar Wheaton run for 3 yds to the TCU 15Similar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 7
OPP 15
0
93.7%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Jordan HudsonSimilar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 7
OPP 15
0
94.6%
Preston Stone pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19DOWNS
11 plays · 52 yds · 5:3796% → 97%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
96.0%
Emani Bailey run for 19 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-15
96.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Morris,Chandler rush right for 1 yard gain to the TCU40, End Of Play PENALTY TCU Personal Foul (Deery,Coltin) 15 yards from TCU39 to TCU24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 25
OWN 24
+20
96.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Major Everhart for 20 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+1
96.3%
Trey Sanders run for 1 yd to the TCU 45Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+4
96.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Warren Thompson for 4 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
96.4%
Trey Sanders run for 6 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+11
96.4%
Trey Sanders run for 11 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
96.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Major Everhart for 4 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+2
96.4%
Emani Bailey run for 2 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 4
OPP 28
0
96.3%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:35
4TH & 4
OPP 28
0
97.1%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Major EverhartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20TD
14 plays · 72 yds · 4:483% → 8%
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
96.7%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Key'Shawn SmithSimilar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+8
96.9%
Preston Stone pass complete to Romello Brinson for 8 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+9
96.7%
Camar Wheaton run for 9 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
96.6%
Preston Stone sacked by Channing Canada for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 40Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+18
96.9%
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 18 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
96.5%
Preston Stone pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 14 yds to the TCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
95.9%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Roderick Daniels Jr.Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+6
96.2%
Camar Wheaton run for 6 yds to the TCU 22Similar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+2
96.3%
Preston Stone run for 2 yds to the TCU 20Similar
Q4 6:35
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+5
96.3%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jake Bailey for 5 yds to the TCU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
95.9%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Key'Shawn SmithSimilar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+13
95.9%
Tyler Lavine run for 13 yds to the TCU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.0%
Tyler Lavine run for 2 yds for a TD TCU Penalty, Illegal Substitution ( Yards) declined (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21TD
7 plays · 44 yds · 0:2996% → 99%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
95.7%
PENALTY TCU False Start (Coker,Andrew) 5 yards from SMU44 to SMU49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+10
95.5%
Emani Bailey run for 10 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+1
95.7%
Emani Bailey run for 1 yd to the SMU 38Similar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+2
96.5%
Chandler Morris run for 2 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q4 1:18
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+36
98.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Chase Curtis for 36 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22END OF GAME
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:112% → 2%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-11
98.1%
Preston Stone sacked by Damonic Williams for a loss of 11 yards to the SMU 1Similar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 21
OWN 1
+4
98.2%
Tyler Lavine run for 4 yds to the SMU 5Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 17
OWN 5
0
98.3%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Tyler LavineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:54
Emani Bailey run for 24 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)
+9.6
TD · Q2 2:54
Camar Wheaton run for 1 yd for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)
-9.2
TD · Q2 6:58
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jared Wiley for 2 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)
+8.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com