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UCF

UCF 31 at Kansas State 44

KSU
2023 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
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Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playKSU scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.2KSU 62.2%Colton Boomer 29 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 7 · Q1 9:08
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:08 · Colton Boomer 29 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 14Home team on offense+0.1Pregame prior+10.4Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Time remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:20: DJ Giddens run for 18 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK) — KSU win probability +9.8 pts (now 74%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:19: Timmy McClain pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 69 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK) — UCF win probability +12.0 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 13:40: Timmy McClain pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 46 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK) — UCF win probability +11.1 pts (now 50%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:28: Will Howard run for 2 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK) — KSU win probability +19.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:01: DJ Giddens run for 3 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant PAT MISSED) — KSU win probability +8.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UCF made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 9:08UCF 4th & 7 at KSU 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    32.5%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q2 4:58UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 4:00KSU 4th & 9 at KSU 19, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:23KSU 4th & 2 at UCF 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    66.6%−1.0
    28% to make
    Punt
    66.7%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:08KSU 4th & 6 at UCF 8, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.6%
    90% to make
    Punt
    64.1%−3.4
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:33KSU 4th & 9 at UCF 12, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−1.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.4%
    86% to make
    Punt
    44.2%−10.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:37UCF 4th & 7 at UCF 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%
    average punt
  8. Q4 10:06UCF 4th & 18 at KSU 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−3.5
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.4%
    45% to make
    Punt
    15.7%−2.7
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:06KSU 4th & 1 at UCF 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    80.7%−5.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    81.4%−4.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:54UCF 4th & 20 at UCF 26, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%−0.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:34UCF 4th & 15 at KSU 30, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%
    56% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UCF made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 11:34KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:47UCF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:19KSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:20KSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:19UCF Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:40UCF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:28KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:01KSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    95.8%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:01KSU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−0.5
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:03UCF Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KSUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2662% → 63%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
61.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 13 yds to the KSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
61.6%
DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the KSU 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+13
61.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 13 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
61.6%
DJ Giddens run for 1 yd to the UCF 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+36
61.6%
DJ Giddens run for 36 yds to the UCF 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
61.6%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
61.6%
Will Howard run for 7 yds to the UCF 1Similar
Q1 11:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.1%
DJ Giddens run for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2FG
6 plays · 63 yds · 2:2637% → 38%
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
62.7%
Timmy McClain run for 12 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+48
62.6%
Johnny Richardson run for 48 yds to the KSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
62.2%
Johnny Richardson run for 4 yds to the KSU 11Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 6
OPP 11
-1
62.2%
Timmy McClain run for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 12Similar
Q1 11:34
3RD & 7
OPP 12
0
62.3%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:08
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+29
62.2%
Colton Boomer 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3INT
5 plays · 37 yds · 2:0362% → 63%
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
62.0%
Will Howard pass complete to DJ Giddens for 4 yds to the KSU 19Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+8
62.0%
DJ Giddens run for 8 yds to the KSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+22
62.1%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 22 yds to the KSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
62.7%
DJ Giddens run for 3 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
63.2%
Will Howard pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4TD
9 plays · 57 yds · 5:1138% → 41%
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
62.0%
RJ Harvey run for no gain to the UCF 43Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+8
62.1%
Xavier Townsend run for 8 yds to the KSU 49Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+4
61.9%
run for 4 yds to the KSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
61.8%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 12 yds to the KSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
61.5%
Timmy McClain run for 9 yds to the KSU 24Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+2
61.4%
run for 2 yds to the KSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
61.4%
Timmy McClain sacked by Nate Matlack for a loss of 5 yards to the KSU 27Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 15
OPP 27
0
61.8%
run for no gain to the KSU 27Similar
Q1 1:47
3RD & 15
OPP 27
+27
58.9%
Timmy McClain pass complete to RJ Harvey for 27 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5TD
12 plays · 84 yds · 4:2359% → 65%
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
59.2%
DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the KSU 18Similar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+11
59.1%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 11 yds to the KSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
59.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Will Swanson for 10 yds to the KSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
59.6%
Anthony Frias II run for no gain to the KSU 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
59.4%
DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the KSU 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+12
59.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 12 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+24
60.7%
Will Howard pass complete to DJ Giddens for 24 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
61.3%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+8
61.2%
Anthony Frias II run for 8 yds to the UCF 15Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+6
60.5%
Will Howard pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 6 yds to the UCF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
61.2%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
65.0%
DJ Giddens run for 9 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6FUMBLE
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:5837% → 39%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
62.7%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 5 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
61.7%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+10
62.2%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Javon Baker for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
50
+7
61.3%
RJ Harvey run for 7 yds to the KSU 43Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 3
OPP 43
0
61.1%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+5
61.4%
run for 5 yds to the KSU 38 RJ Harvey fumbled, recovered by KSU VJ PayneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 4:0164% → 74%
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
64.0%
DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the KSU 40Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+19
64.3%
Will Howard run for 9 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Defensive Holding (DeJordan Mask) to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
65.0%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
64.9%
DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+5
64.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Anthony Frias II for 5 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q2 10:21
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+5
63.8%
SINNOTT, Ben rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the UCF31 (JOHNSON, Jason). PENALTY UCF Offsides enforced 5 yards from the UCF32 to the UCF27 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-7
65.4%
Will Howard sacked by Tre'Mon Morris-Brash for a loss of 7 yards to the UCF 34Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 17
OPP 34
+16
64.5%
DJ Giddens run for 16 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+18
74.3%
DJ Giddens run for 18 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2228% → 26%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
72.5%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 4 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
72.1%
Johnny Richardson run for 1 yd to the UCF 30Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
72.7%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:58
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
74.3%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 42 yds , Phillip Brooks returns for no gain to the KSU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5874% → 74%
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
74.3%
DJ Giddens run for 1 yd to the KSU 19Similar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 9
OWN 19
0
74.3%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:58
3RD & 9
OWN 19
0
73.4%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:00
4TH & 9
OWN 19
0
73.7%
Jack Blumer punt for 69 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10TD
2 plays · 76 yds · 0:4125% → 37%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
74.8%
RJ Harvey run for 7 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+69
62.8%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 69 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 11DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:4966% → 67%
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
66.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 11 yds to the KSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
67.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 3 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
67.6%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+5
67.7%
Will Howard pass complete to DJ Giddens for 5 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+1
67.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 1 yd to the UCF 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
67.3%
Timmy McClain pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 13MISSED FG
9 plays · 53 yds · 1:0767% → 68%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
67.1%
Will Howard pass complete to DJ Giddens for 5 yds to the KSU 44Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+6
68.1%
Will Howard pass complete to DJ Giddens for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
50
+16
68.4%
Will Howard pass complete to Seth Porter for 16 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+22
69.8%
Will Howard pass complete to DJ Giddens for 22 yds to the UCF 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
69.8%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+4
70.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 4 yds to the UCF 8Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 6
OPP 8
0
69.0%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+26
67.9%
Chris Tennant 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
69.1%
Kneel down by UCF at UCF18 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15TD
3 plays · 46 yds · 1:1039% → 50%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
61.5%
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the KSU 44Similar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 8
OPP 44
-2
61.6%
Johnny Richardson run for a loss of 2 yards to the KSU 46Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+46
50.4%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 46 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16FG
9 plays · 63 yds · 4:0753% → 61%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
53.3%
DJ Giddens run for 18 yds to the KSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+31
56.1%
DJ Giddens run for 31 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
58.4%
DJ Giddens run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 28Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 12
OPP 28
+9
58.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 9 yds to the UCF 19Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+6
56.7%
Will Howard run for 6 yds to the UCF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
58.3%
DJ Giddens run for 1 yd to the UCF 12Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 9
OPP 12
0
58.3%
Kansas State Penalty, Illegal Formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 9
OPP 12
0
56.8%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:33
4TH & 9
OPP 12
+30
60.9%
Chris Tennant 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:5043% → 44%
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+20
56.6%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 20 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
53.5%
Timmy McClain run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 45Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+2
54.8%
Xavier Townsend run for 2 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+7
55.2%
RJ Harvey run for 7 yds to the KSU 46Similar
Q3 9:27
4TH & 2
OPP 46
-5
55.2%
UCF Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the UCF 49Similar
Q3 6:37
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
56.4%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 18TD
13 plays · 85 yds · 5:0959% → 83%
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
59.2%
Will Howard pass complete to DJ Giddens for 4 yds to the KSU 19Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 6
OWN 19
0
59.3%
DJ Giddens run for no gain to the KSU 19Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+6
57.7%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 6 yds to the KSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
59.6%
DJ Giddens run for 13 yds to the KSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
61.3%
DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the KSU 42Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
62.7%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+15
60.8%
HOWARD, Will pass short up the middle incomplete intended for PORTER, Seth broken up by WALKER, John at the KSU46. PENALTY UCF Roughing the Passer on MORRIS-BRASH, Tre'mon enforced 15 yards from the KSU42 to the UCF43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
63.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 3 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+15
63.8%
GIDDENS, DJ rush up the middle for no gain to the UCF40 (YATES, Walter). PENALTY UCF Personal Foul on HUNTER, Lee enforced 15 yards from the UCF40 to the UCF25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
64.9%
DJ Giddens run for 7 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 3
OPP 18
0
64.8%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+16
63.3%
Will Howard pass complete to DJ Giddens for 16 yds to the UCF 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
82.6%
Will Howard run for 2 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19MISSED FG
14 plays · 39 yds · 6:1524% → 17%
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
76.4%
RJ Harvey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-1
76.7%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Townsend for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 25Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 11
OWN 25
-10
78.6%
MCCLAIN, Timmy pass deep up the middle complete for 22 yards to HUDSON, Kobe caught at the UCF42 and advanced to the UCF47 (GARBER, Keenan), clock 00:00. PENALTY UCF Holding on GRABLE, Tylan enforced 10 yards from the UCF25 to the UCF15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 21
OWN 15
+23
78.9%
Johnny Richardson run for 23 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+23
75.8%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 8 yds to the KSU 46 for a 1ST down Kansas State Penalty, Roughing the Passer on CLIFTON, Jake enforced (Jake Clifton) to the KSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
73.4%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+2
73.4%
Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the KSU 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 37
-5
73.9%
UCF Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the KSU 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 42
+15
76.3%
MCCLAIN, Timmy pass deep to the left incomplete intended for BAKER, Javon broken up by PARRISH, Jacob at the KSU10. PENALTY KSU Pass Interference on PARRISH, Jacob enforced 15 yards to the KSU27 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-12
71.0%
Timmy McClain sacked by Khalid Duke for a loss of 12 yards to the KSU 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 22
OPP 39
+3
75.2%
Timmy McClain run for 3 yds to the KSU 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 19
OPP 36
-5
76.5%
UCF Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the KSU 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 24
OPP 41
+6
76.7%
RJ Harvey run for 6 yds to the KSU 35Similar
Q4 10:06
4TH & 18
OPP 35
+52
82.6%
Colton Boomer 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 20TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 6:0586% → 97%
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
86.0%
DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the KSU 37Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
86.7%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:06
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+14
85.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 14 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
87.7%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
87.4%
DJ Giddens run for 3 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q4 10:06
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+6
87.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 6 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q4 10:06
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+4
86.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 4 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+16
88.0%
Will Howard run for 16 yds to the UCF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
88.2%
DJ Giddens run for 3 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+7
88.2%
DJ Giddens run for 7 yds to the UCF 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
88.2%
DJ Giddens run for 5 yds to the UCF 5Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
88.2%
Phillip Brooks run for 2 yds to the UCF 3Similar
Q4 4:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
96.6%
DJ Giddens run for 3 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:075% → 4%
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
95.5%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 11 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
95.0%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-10
94.9%
Timmy McClain sacked by Brendan Mott for a loss of 10 yards to the UCF 26Similar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 20
OWN 26
0
95.7%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:54
4TH & 20
OWN 26
+10
95.9%
Timmy McClain run for 10 yds to the UCF 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 22TD
2 plays · 36 yds · 0:5397% → 99%
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
97.2%
DJ Giddens run for 5 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+31
99.4%
Will Howard run for 31 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 1:581% → 4%
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.5%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Randy Pittman for 12 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
99.4%
MCCLAIN, Timmy pass to the right incomplete intended for TOWNSEND, Xavier broken up by GARBER, Keenan at the KSU50. PENALTY KSU Pass Interference on GARBER, Keenan enforced at the spot of the foul for 13 yards to the KSU50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
50
0
99.4%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 10
50
+12
99.4%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Randy Pittman for 12 yds to the KSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
99.4%
Timmy McClain run for 7 yds to the KSU 31Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+6
99.3%
Timmy McClain run for 6 yds to the KSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-3
99.3%
Timmy McClain sacked by Uso Seumalo for a loss of 3 yards to the KSU 28Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 13
OPP 28
+3
99.3%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the KSU 25Similar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 10
OPP 25
-5
99.5%
UCF Penalty, Illegal Snap on KITLER, Caden enforced (-5 Yards) to the KSU 30Similar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 15
OPP 30
0
99.5%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:34
4TH & 15
OPP 30
+29
99.5%
Timmy McClain pass complete to RJ Harvey for 29 yds to the KSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.4%
RJ Harvey run for no gain to the KSU 1Similar
Q4 0:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.5%
RJ Harvey 1 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:28
Will Howard run for 2 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)
+19.3
TD · Q2 3:19
Timmy McClain pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 69 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
-12
TD · Q3 13:40
Timmy McClain pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 46 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
-11.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com