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OU

Oklahoma 20 at Cincinnati 6

CIN
2023 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadOU aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:58 · Josh Plaster punt for 29 yds, downed at the OU 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 84Pregame prior−23.7Home team on offense−6.8Score differential−2.7Garbage-time factor−2.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 8:22: Carter Brown 54 yd FG GOOD — CIN win probability +5.0 pts (now 27%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:23: Dillon Gabriel run for 1 yd for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK) — OU win probability +10.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:36: Timeout Cincinnati, clock 00:36 — OU win probability +3.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 10:59: Zach Schmit 30 yd FG GOOD — OU win probability +5.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  5. INT · Q4 7:42: Emory Jones pass intercepted — OU win probability +4.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 7 of 11OU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 12:52CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:24OU 4th & 9 at OU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:39CIN 4th & 10 at OU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    22.9%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:21CIN 4th & 9 at CIN 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:31CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 34, down 4
    Close callPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:40OU 4th & 11 at CIN 16, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−0.8
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    68.2%−3.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:51OU 4th & 9 at OU 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%−1.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:41CIN 4th & 4 at midfield, down 7
    Close callPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:58OU 4th & 1 at OU 17, up 7
    Close callPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.0%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:11CIN 4th & 4 at OU 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−0.5
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.4%
    89% to make
    Punt
    20.4%−5.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:54OU 4th & 12 at OU 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−1.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:54CIN 4th & 1 at OU 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    22.3%−3.6
    42% to make
    Punt
    21.7%−4.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:22CIN 4th & 13 at OU 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−0.9
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.1%
    40% to make
    Punt
    24.9%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:32CIN 4th & 2 at OU 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    17.0%−1.0
    75% to make
    Punt
    11.1%−7.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00OU 4th & 1 at CIN 22, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    82.1%−1.9
    72% to make
    Punt
    76.4%−7.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:59OU 4th & 5 at CIN 13, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    80.7%−6.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:42CIN 4th & 2 at OU 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    6.4%−0.8
    34% to make
    Punt
    5.9%−1.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:42OU 4th & 14 at OU 22, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−1.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:14CIN 4th & 2 at OU 42, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%−0.3
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    4.6%
    30% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−0.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:44OU 4th & 18 at OU 49, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 0:34OU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 5:23OU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0813% → 14%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
12.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 4 yds to the CIN 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
12.9%
Corey Kiner run for no gain to the CIN 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+4
12.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 4 yds to the CIN 33Similar
Q1 12:52
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
13.9%
Mason Fletcher punt for 57 yds, downed at the OU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:2886% → 85%
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
13.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 11 yds to the OU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-4
13.9%
Marcus Major run for a loss of 4 yards to the OU 17Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 14
OWN 17
+5
13.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 5 yds to the OU 22Similar
Q1 12:52
3RD & 9
OWN 22
0
13.9%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:24
4TH & 9
OWN 22
0
14.7%
Josh Plaster punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3FG
10 plays · 37 yds · 3:4515% → 17%
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
14.7%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+11
14.7%
Corey Kiner run for 11 yds to the OU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
14.8%
Emory Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 12
50
0
14.7%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:24
3RD & 12
50
+15
14.7%
JONES, Emory pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HENDERSON, Xzavier thrown to the OKL13. PENALTY OKL Pass Interference on WILLIAMS, Gentry enforced 15 yards to the OKL35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
14.9%
Ryan Montgomery run for 13 yds to the OU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
14.9%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
14.9%
Braden Smith run for no gain to the OU 22Similar
Q1 11:24
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
14.8%
Emory Jones run for no gain to the OU 22Similar
Q1 7:39
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+40
16.9%
Carter Brown 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 4FUMBLE
12 plays · 71 yds · 3:1283% → 82%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
17.1%
Jalil Farooq run for no gain to the OU 19Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+11
17.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gavin Freeman for 11 yds to the OU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
17.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
17.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+19
17.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 19 yds to the OU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
16.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
16.7%
Dillon Gabriel run for 7 yds to the CIN 44Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+7
16.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 7 yds to the CIN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+18
16.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Nic Anderson for 18 yds to the CIN 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
16.4%
Dillon Gabriel run for 7 yds to the CIN 12Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 3
OPP 12
0
16.4%
Marcus Major run for no gain to the CIN 12Similar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+2
18.4%
Dillon Gabriel run for 2 yds to the CIN 10 Dillon Gabriel fumbled, recovered by CIN Jack DingleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 2:0219% → 20%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+22
18.8%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 22 yds to the CIN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
19.0%
Ryan Montgomery run for 2 yds to the CIN 34Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 8
OWN 34
-1
18.9%
Ryan Montgomery run for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 33Similar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
18.6%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:21
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
19.5%
Mason Fletcher punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 6TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 1:4780% → 82%
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+26
20.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 26 yds to the CIN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+16
19.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tawee Walker for 16 yds to the CIN 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
19.0%
Tawee Walker run for 7 yds to the CIN 17Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+12
19.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Nic Anderson for 12 yds to the CIN 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
19.0%
Tawee Walker run for no gain to the CIN 5Similar
Q1 0:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
17.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Nic Anderson for 5 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2919% → 19%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
19.0%
Myles Montgomery run for 7 yds to the CIN 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
19.7%
Emory Jones pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 1 yd to the CIN 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
19.2%
Myles Montgomery run for 1 yd to the CIN 34Similar
Q2 13:31
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
19.3%
Mason Fletcher punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Gavin Freeman at the OU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 8FG
13 plays · 72 yds · 4:5180% → 82%
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
19.8%
Marcus Major run for no gain to the OU 12Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 10
OWN 12
-6
19.8%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Dorian Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the OU 6Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 16
OWN 6
0
20.4%
Oklahoma Penalty, False Start (Tyler Guyton) to the OU 3Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 19
OWN 3
+19
20.4%
Marcus Major run for 19 yds to the OU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
19.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tawee Walker for 11 yds to the OU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
19.5%
Dillon Gabriel run for 1 yd to the OU 34Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+1
19.5%
Tawee Walker run for 1 yd to the OU 35Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+25
19.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 25 yds to the CIN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+25
18.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 25 yds to the CIN 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
18.4%
Marcus Major run for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 16Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 11
OPP 16
0
18.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 11
OPP 16
0
19.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:40
4TH & 11
OPP 16
+34
18.1%
Zach Schmit 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9INT
8 plays · 49 yds · 3:3819% → 20%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.6%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
18.6%
Corey Kiner run for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 24Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+14
18.0%
Emory Jones pass complete to Evan Prater for 14 yds to the CIN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
19.2%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the CIN 41Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+35
19.6%
Emory Jones pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 35 yds to the OU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
20.9%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-2
20.8%
Corey Kiner run for a loss of 2 yards to the OU 26Similar
Q2 5:02
3RD & 12
OPP 26
0
20.4%
Emory Jones pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:1181% → 80%
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
18.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 12 yds to the OU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
18.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+1
18.3%
Tawee Walker run for 1 yd to the OU 33Similar
Q2 5:02
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
18.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:51
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
19.7%
Josh Plaster punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:1020% → 21%
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
19.6%
Emory Jones run for 6 yds to the CIN 34Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+10
20.4%
Emory Jones pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 10 yds to the CIN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
20.7%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-3
20.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Myles Montgomery for a loss of 3 yards to the CIN 41Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 13
OWN 41
+9
20.1%
Emory Jones pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:41
4TH & 4
50
0
21.3%
Mason Fletcher punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Gavin Freeman at the OU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:4380% → 80%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
19.7%
Marcus Major run for 5 yds to the OU 13Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 5
OWN 13
-3
19.3%
Dillon Gabriel run for a loss of 3 yards to the OU 8Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 10
OWN 8
+9
19.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marcus Major for 9 yds to the OU 17Similar
Q2 0:58
4TH & 1
OWN 17
0
19.8%
Josh Plaster punt for 29 yds, downed at the OU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13MISSED FG
12 plays · 37 yds · 0:4722% → 21%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
21.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 7 yds to the OU 39Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 3
OPP 39
0
21.9%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+14
21.8%
Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 14 yds to the OU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
23.0%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+10
22.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Evan Prater for 10 yds to the OU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
23.2%
Emory Jones run for 2 yds to the OU 13Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 8
OPP 13
-5
23.2%
Cincinnati Penalty, False Start (Deondre Buford) to the OU 18Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 13
OPP 18
+9
22.6%
Emory Jones pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 9 yds to the OU 9Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 4
OPP 9
0
21.9%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+26
21.1%
Carter Brown 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
18.4%
[NH] Kneel down by GABRIEL, Dillon at OKL19 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:0681% → 80%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+21
19.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jayden Gibson for 21 yds to the OU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
17.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Austin Stogner for 5 yds to the CIN 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 49
-2
17.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gavin Freeman for a loss of 2 yards to the OU 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 49
-5
17.6%
GABRIEL, Dillon pass up the middle complete for 8 yards to STOOPS, Drake caught at the CIN43 and advanced to the CIN43 (WILLIS, Ken). PENALTY Before the snap, OKL Illegal Shift enforced 5 yards from the OKL49 to the OKL44. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 44
0
18.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:54
4TH & 12
OWN 44
0
20.2%
Josh Plaster punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the CIN 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16FG
12 plays · 49 yds · 4:3220% → 27%
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
20.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 12 yds to the CIN 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
20.7%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 15 yds to the CIN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
22.0%
Corey Kiner run for 8 yds to the CIN 49Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+6
22.8%
Corey Kiner run for 6 yds to the OU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
23.1%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the OU 44Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
23.0%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+8
22.1%
Emory Jones run for 8 yds to the OU 36Similar
Q3 12:54
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+2
21.9%
Myles Montgomery run for 2 yds to the OU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
24.1%
Braden Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
24.1%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 10
OPP 34
-3
22.4%
Emory Jones sacked by Jonah Laulu for a loss of 3 yards to the OU 37Similar
Q3 8:22
4TH & 13
OPP 37
+54
27.4%
Carter Brown 54 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 17TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5973% → 86%
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
27.4%
Marcus Major run for 18 yds to the OU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
25.5%
Cincinnati Penalty, Personal Foul (Bryon Threats) to the CIN 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+6
23.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 6 yds to the CIN 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
23.7%
Marcus Major run for 4 yds to the CIN 14Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 6
OPP 14
-1
23.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 15Similar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+8
24.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 8 yds to the CIN 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
23.7%
Tawee Walker run for 6 yds to the CIN 1Similar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
24.0%
Marcus Major run for 9 yds to the CIN 24Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
13.9%
Dillon Gabriel run for 1 yd for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18DOWNS
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:5116% → 16%
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
16.1%
Myles Montgomery run for 9 yds to the CIN 34Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+11
17.0%
Emory Jones pass complete to Aaron Turner for 11 yds to the CIN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
17.3%
Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 4 yds to the CIN 49Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+7
17.8%
Corey Kiner run for 7 yds to the OU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
18.2%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+16
18.0%
Emory Jones pass complete to Corey Kiner for 16 yds to the OU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
19.3%
Emory Jones run for 8 yds to the OU 20Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 2
OPP 20
0
19.3%
Emory Jones run for no gain to the OU 20Similar
Q3 0:36
3RD & 2
OPP 20
0
17.0%
Emory Jones run for no gain to the OU 20Similar
Q3 0:32
4TH & 2
OPP 20
0
15.8%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19FG
10 plays · 67 yds · 4:0186% → 94%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+49
13.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 49 yds to the CIN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
11.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marcus Major for 9 yds to the CIN 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 22
-10
11.7%
MAJOR, Marcus rush up the middle for a gain of 10 yards to the CIN12 (HARRIS, Justin). PENALTY OKL Holding on EVERETT, Troy enforced 10 yards from the CIN22 to the CIN32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 32
0
12.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for no gain to the CIN 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 32
+10
12.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 10 yds to the CIN 22Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+4
13.3%
Dillon Gabriel run for 4 yds to the CIN 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
11.7%
Marcus Major run for no gain to the CIN 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+5
11.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 5 yds to the CIN 13Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 13
0
11.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:59
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+30
5.9%
Zach Schmit 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 49 yds · 3:179% → 6%
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
9.3%
Myles Montgomery run for 16 yds to the CIN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
10.3%
Myles Montgomery run for 2 yds to the CIN 43Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-11
10.2%
Emory Jones sacked by Danny Stutsman for a loss of 11 yards to the CIN 32Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 19
OWN 32
+20
8.9%
Emory Jones run for 20 yds to the OU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
10.7%
Corey Kiner run for 6 yds to the OU 42Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+2
10.9%
Emory Jones run for 2 yds to the OU 40Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 2
OPP 40
0
10.9%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:42
4TH & 2
OPP 40
0
6.2%
Emory Jones pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:0095% → 95%
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
5.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
5.1%
Marcus Major run for 4 yds to the OU 30Similar
Q4 7:42
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
5.1%
Oklahoma Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Dillon Gabriel) to the OU 22Similar
Q4 6:42
4TH & 14
OWN 22
0
4.8%
Josh Plaster punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:285% → 4%
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
4.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 8 yds to the CIN 41Similar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+9
5.3%
Ethan Wright run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
50
0
5.3%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 10
50
0
5.3%
Ethan Wright run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 10
50
+3
5.0%
Emory Jones run for 3 yds to the OU 47Similar
Q4 4:36
4TH & 7
OPP 47
+5
4.4%
JONES, Emory sacked for a loss of 9 yards at the CIN44 (BOTHROYD, Rondell), clock 04:36. PENALTY OKL Offsides on DOLBY, Kendel enforced 5 yards from the OKL47 to the OKL42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:14
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+1
3.6%
Emory Jones run for 1 yd to the OU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 23PUNT
11 plays · 8 yds · 3:3097% → 98%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
3.5%
Marcus Major run for 3 yds to the OU 44Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+2
2.6%
Marcus Major run for 2 yds to the OU 46Similar
Q4 3:28
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+11
2.6%
Dillon Gabriel run for 11 yds to the CIN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
2.5%
Jalil Farooq run for 3 yds to the CIN 40Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+2
1.9%
Marcus Major run for 2 yds to the CIN 38Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 5
OPP 38
-10
1.9%
MAJOR, Marcus rush to the left for a gain of 19 yards to the CIN19 (YOUNG, Jordan). PENALTY OKL Holding on GREEN, Cayden enforced 10 yards from the CIN38 to the CIN48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 15
OPP 48
+2
1.9%
Marcus Major run for 2 yds to the CIN 46Similar
Q4 1:48
4TH & 13
OPP 46
-5
2.0%
Oklahoma Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the OU 49Similar
Q4 0:44
4TH & 18
OWN 49
0
2.0%
Josh Plaster punt for 38 yds, downed at the CIN 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
5 plays · 41 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
1.0%
Emory Jones pass complete to Corey Kiner for 9 yds to the CIN 22Similar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+12
1.1%
Emory Jones pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 12 yds to the CIN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
1.1%
Emory Jones run for 8 yds to the CIN 42Similar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+12
1.1%
Emory Jones pass complete to Corey Kiner for 12 yds to the OU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
1.2%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:23
Dillon Gabriel run for 1 yd for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)
-10.1
FG · Q4 10:59
Zach Schmit 30 yd FG GOOD
-5.9
FG · Q3 8:22
Carter Brown 54 yd FG GOOD
+5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com