Try the model
TEX

Texas 38 at Baylor 6

BAY
2023 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023 · McLane Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreTEX score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:33 · Ryan Sanborn punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Josh Cameron at the BAY 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 92Home team on offense−30.2Pregame prior−23.4Score differential−21.0Garbage-time factor−9.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:15: Jonathon Brooks run for 40 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK) — TEX win probability +2.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. FG · Q1 1:07: Isaiah Hankins 22 yd FG GOOD — BAY win probability +1.6 pts (now 19%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:07: Quinn Ewers run for 29 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK) — TEX win probability +4.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 7:03: CJ Baxter run for 7 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK) — TEX win probability +5.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 2:26: Jonathon Brooks 2 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick) — TEX win probability +5.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 11 of 13TEX made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 12:47BAY 4th & 25 at BAY 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:14TEX 4th & 5 at BAY 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    81.8%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:01BAY 4th & 16 at BAY 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−0.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:07BAY 4th & 5 at TEX 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.1%
    92% to make
    Punt
    16.3%−2.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:05TEX 4th & 3 at TEX 39, up 4
    Close callPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.9%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:35BAY 4th & 18 at BAY 38, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−1.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:35BAY 4th & 5 at BAY 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:15BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 46, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.7%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:34BAY 4th & 5 at BAY 30, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:44BAY 4th & 8 at TEX 19, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    -1.1%−4.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:33TEX 4th & 9 at TEX 26, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:24TEX 4th & 8 at BAY 19, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    95.1%−1.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:04BAY 4th & 4 at TEX 4, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    -2.0%−4.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:40BAY 4th & 10 at BAY 40, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:54BAY 4th & 8 at TEX 8, down 32
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%
    90% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:00BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 29, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:40BAY 4th & 5 at TEX 20, down 32
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:01TEX 4th & 4 at TEX 43, up 32
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 5:15TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:07TEX Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:03TEX Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:26TEX Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:36TEX Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -15 yds · 1:5813% → 14%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
13.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 3 yds to the BAY 28Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-8
13.5%
Sawyer Robertson sacked by Jett Bush for a loss of 8 yards to the BAY 20Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-5
13.8%
Sawyer Robertson sacked by Byron Murphy II for a loss of 5 yards to the BAY 15Similar
Q1 13:00
4TH & 20
OWN 15
-5
13.8%
Baylor Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BAY 10Similar
Q1 12:47
4TH & 25
OWN 10
0
13.9%
Palmer Williams punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Xavier Worthy at the TEX 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:5686% → 84%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
14.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for a loss of 5 yards to the TEX 37Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 15
OWN 37
+5
14.5%
Jonathon Brooks run for 5 yds to the TEX 42Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+11
14.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 11 yds to the BAY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
14.6%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 5 yds to the BAY 42Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+2
14.8%
Quinn Ewers run for 2 yds to the BAY 40Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 3
OPP 40
-2
15.0%
Jonathon Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the BAY 42Similar
Q1 9:14
4TH & 5
OPP 42
0
15.6%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 2:5916% → 17%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
15.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Richard Reese for 7 yds to the BAY 27Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+1
16.1%
Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the BAY 28Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
16.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Hal Presley for 3 yds to the BAY 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
16.7%
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 3 yards to the BAY 28Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 13
OWN 28
-3
17.0%
Sawyer Robertson sacked by Vernon Broughton for a loss of 3 yards to the BAY 25Similar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 16
OWN 25
0
17.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Dominic RichardsonSimilar
Q1 6:01
4TH & 16
OWN 25
0
16.9%
Palmer Williams punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TEX 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4TD
2 plays · 55 yds · 0:1583% → 85%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
17.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 15 yds to the BAY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
15.0%
Jonathon Brooks run for 40 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5FG
12 plays · 70 yds · 3:5316% → 19%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
15.7%
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 3 yards to the BAY 22Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+39
15.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 39 yds to the TEX 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
16.8%
Jordan Nabors run for 5 yds to the TEX 34Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+15
17.4%
Texas Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the TEX 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
17.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+10
17.3%
Sawyer Robertson run for 10 yds to the TEX 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
17.3%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the TEX 6Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
17.5%
Sawyer Robertson run for 1 yd to the TEX 5Similar
Q1 1:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
17.2%
Sawyer Robertson run for no gain to the TEX 5Similar
Q1 1:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
18.9%
Isaiah Hankins 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 1:5582% → 81%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
18.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to CJ Baxter for 4 yds to the TEX 16Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+16
18.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 16 yds to the TEX 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
18.5%
Jonathon Brooks run for 3 yds to the TEX 35Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+4
18.5%
CJ Baxter run for 4 yds to the TEX 39Similar
Q2 14:16
3RD & 3
OWN 39
0
18.5%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Ja'Tavion SandersSimilar
Q2 14:05
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
19.2%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BAY 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:0519% → 19%
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+23
19.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 23 yds to the BAY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
20.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Richard Reese for a loss of 3 yards to the BAY 43Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 13
OWN 43
0
20.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Ketron Jackson Jr.Similar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 13
OWN 43
-5
19.6%
Baylor Penalty, False Start (Alvin Ebosele) to the BAY 38Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 18
OWN 38
0
19.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Josh CameronSimilar
Q2 12:35
4TH & 18
OWN 38
+10
19.3%
Palmer Williams punt for 47 yds , Xavier Worthy returns for 10 yds to the TEX 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0880% → 85%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
19.7%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Mike Smith Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the TEX 18Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+17
20.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 17 yds to the TEX 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
19.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 14 yds to the TEX 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
19.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 11 yds to the BAY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
19.3%
Jonathon Brooks run for 5 yds to the BAY 35Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+6
18.9%
Jonathon Brooks run for 6 yds to the BAY 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
18.8%
Jonathon Brooks run for no gain to the BAY 29Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
19.2%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to CJ BaxterSimilar
Q2 9:07
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+29
15.2%
Quinn Ewers run for 29 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2716% → 15%
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
15.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Monaray BaldwinSimilar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
15.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the BAY 28Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+2
14.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 2 yds to the BAY 30Similar
Q2 7:35
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+40
14.8%
Palmer Williams punt for 52 yds , Xavier Worthy returns for 40 yds to the BAY 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10TD
2 plays · 42 yds · 0:1285% → 91%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+35
15.0%
Xavier Worthy pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 35 yds to the BAY 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
9.3%
CJ Baxter run for 7 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK) Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11DOWNS
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:4212% → 12%
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Ketron Jackson Jr.Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
11.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Hal PresleySimilar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+13
11.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 13 yds to the BAY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
12.1%
Sawyer Robertson run for 2 yds to the BAY 40Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+4
12.0%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the BAY 44Similar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+2
11.8%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 2 yds to the BAY 46Similar
Q2 4:15
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
11.8%
Dawson Pendergrass run for no gain to the BAY 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12TD
6 plays · 46 yds · 1:4191% → 98%
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
8.7%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+16
8.6%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 16 yds to the BAY 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
8.4%
Jonathon Brooks run for 4 yds to the BAY 26Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+18
8.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jonathon Brooks for 18 yds to the BAY 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 0
OPP 8
+6
7.9%
Baylor Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (6 Yards) to the BAY 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
2.5%
Jonathon Brooks 2 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13FUMBLE
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:463% → 3%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
3.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Hal Presley for 3 yds to the BAY 28Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
3.4%
Sawyer Robertson run for 2 yds to the BAY 30Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
3.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Drake DabneySimilar
Q2 1:34
4TH & 5
OWN 30
-2
3.1%
Palmer Williams punt for 47 yds , Xavier Worthy returns for a loss of 2 yards to the TEX 21 Xavier Worthy fumbled, recovered by BAY Garrison GrimesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:464% → 2%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
3.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Drake Dabney for 2 yds to the TEX 19Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 8
OPP 19
0
2.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Ketron Jackson Jr.Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 8
OPP 19
0
2.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Ketron Jackson Jr.Similar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 8
OPP 19
+36
2.2%
I. Hankins 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0797% → 97%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
3.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 4 yds to the TEX 29Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
3.1%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Adonai MitchellSimilar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-3
3.2%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Matt Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the TEX 26Similar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
3.4%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Josh Cameron at the BAY 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16END OF HALF
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:291% → 1%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Ketron Jackson Jr.Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
1.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Drake Dabney for 6 yds to the BAY 31Similar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+10
1.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 10 yds to the BAY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
1.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 2 yds to the BAY 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 17FG
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:2197% → 98%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
3.1%
Jonathon Brooks run for 4 yds to the TEX 30Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+49
3.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 49 yds to the BAY 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
2.6%
Jonathon Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 22Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+3
2.7%
Jonathon Brooks run for 3 yds to the BAY 19Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 8
OPP 19
0
2.5%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Ja'Tavion SandersSimilar
Q3 12:24
4TH & 8
OPP 19
+37
2.5%
Bert Auburn 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18INT
8 plays · 71 yds · 2:572% → 2%
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
2.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Jordan Nabors for 5 yds to the BAY 30Similar
Q3 11:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
2.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Hal Presley for 11 yds to the BAY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+55
2.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 55 yds to the TEX 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
2.1%
Dawson Pendergrass run for no gain to the TEX 4Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
2.0%
Dominic Richardson run for no gain to the TEX 4Similar
Q3 9:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
1.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
1.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass intercepted Jaylan Ford return for 5 yds to the TEX 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19TD
7 plays · 95 yds · 3:1498% → 99%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
1.7%
CJ Baxter run for 4 yds to the TEX 9Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+12
1.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to CJ Baxter for 12 yds to the TEX 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
1.6%
CJ Baxter run for no gain to the TEX 21Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-5
1.5%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Matt Jones for a loss of 5 yards to the TEX 16Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 15
OWN 16
+51
1.5%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Johntay Cook II for 51 yds to the BAY 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
1.2%
Jonathon Brooks run for 12 yds to the BAY 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
0.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 21 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20FUMBLE
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:331% → 1%
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
1.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 3 yds to the BAY 20Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+5
0.9%
Richard Reese run for 5 yds to the BAY 25Similar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+15
0.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Jake Roberts for 15 yds to the BAY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
0.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Monaray BaldwinSimilar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
0.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Josh CameronSimilar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
0.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Jake Roberts for no gain to the BAY 40Similar
Q3 2:40
4TH & 10
OWN 40
+3
0.8%
Palmer Williams punt for 44 yds , Jordan Whittington returns for 3 yds to the TEX 19 Jordan Whittington fumbled, recovered by BAY Garrison GrimesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 1 yds · 2:171% → 1%
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
1.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 4 yds to the TEX 15Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+7
1.0%
Jordan Nabors run for 7 yds to the TEX 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
1.1%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 1 yd to the TEX 7Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
0.7%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 2 yds to the TEX 5Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
0.5%
Sawyer Robertson sacked by Byron Murphy II for a loss of 3 yards to the TEX 8Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
0.5%
Sawyer Robertson sacked by Justice Finkley for a loss of 10 yards to the TEX 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22MISSED FG
13 plays · 74 yds · 5:02100% → 100%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
0.5%
Keilan Robinson run for 9 yds to the TEX 27Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+3
0.5%
CJ Baxter run for 3 yds to the TEX 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
0.4%
Baylor Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the TEX 35Similar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 5
OWN 35
+13
0.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 13 yds to the TEX 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+21
0.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 21 yds to the BAY 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
0.4%
CJ Baxter run for 3 yds to the BAY 28Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+9
0.3%
Jonathon Brooks run for 9 yds to the BAY 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
0.3%
Jonathon Brooks run for 12 yds to the BAY 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
0.3%
Jonathon Brooks run for 5 yds to the BAY 2Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
0.3%
Jonathon Brooks run for no gain to the BAY 2Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
0.2%
Jonathon Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 3Similar
Q4 9:45
4TH & 0
OPP 3
-5
0.3%
Texas Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BAY 8Similar
Q4 9:28
4TH & 0
OPP 8
+26
0.3%
Bert Auburn 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23DOWNS
12 plays · 60 yds · 3:200% → 0%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
0.2%
Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the BAY 22Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
0.2%
RJ Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+7
0.2%
RJ Martinez run for 7 yds to the BAY 29Similar
Q4 8:00
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+16
0.2%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 16 yds to the BAY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
0.2%
RJ Martinez pass incomplete to Monaray BaldwinSimilar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+12
0.2%
RJ Martinez pass complete to Josh Cameron for 12 yds to the TEX 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
0.2%
RJ Martinez pass complete to Kelsey Johnson for 6 yds to the TEX 37Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+12
0.1%
RJ Martinez pass complete to Kelsey Johnson for 12 yds to the TEX 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
0.2%
RJ Martinez pass incomplete to Josh CameronSimilar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
0.2%
RJ Martinez pass complete to Jake Roberts for 5 yds to the TEX 20Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
0.1%
RJ Martinez pass incomplete to Monaray BaldwinSimilar
Q4 5:40
4TH & 5
OPP 20
0
0.1%
RJ Martinez pass incomplete to Drake DabneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:59100% → 100%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
0.2%
Jaydon Blue run for 8 yds to the TEX 28Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+9
0.2%
Jaydon Blue run for 9 yds to the TEX 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
0.2%
Jaydon Blue run for no gain to the TEX 37Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
0.2%
Savion Red run for 6 yds to the TEX 43Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
0.1%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to DeAndre Moore Jr.Similar
Q4 3:01
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
0.1%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BAY 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 25END OF GAME
12 plays · 89 yds · 2:270% → 0%
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
0.1%
RJ Martinez pass complete to Armani Winfield for 4 yds to the BAY 11Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+7
0.1%
Jordan Nabors run for 7 yds to the BAY 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+29
0.1%
RJ Martinez pass complete to Armani Winfield for 29 yds to the BAY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
0.1%
RJ Martinez run for 9 yds to the TEX 44Similar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 1
OPP 44
0
0.1%
RJ Martinez pass incomplete to Dawson PendergrassSimilar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+7
0.1%
RJ Martinez pass complete to Josh Cameron for 7 yds to the TEX 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
0.1%
RJ Martinez pass incomplete to Josh CameronSimilar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+18
0.1%
RJ Martinez pass complete to Jonathan Davidson for 18 yds to the TEX 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
0.1%
RJ Martinez run for 6 yds to the TEX 13Similar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+9
0.1%
RJ Martinez pass complete to Armani Winfield for 9 yds to the TEX 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
0.1%
RJ Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
0.1%
RJ Martinez pass incomplete to Armani WinfieldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:03
CJ Baxter run for 7 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)
-5.7
TD · Q2 2:26
Jonathon Brooks 2 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)
-5.3
TD · Q2 9:07
Quinn Ewers run for 29 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)
-4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com