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VILL

Villanova 14 at UCF 48

UCF
2023 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadVILL aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreVILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-1.1UCF 93.2%Colton Boomer 26 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 3 · Q1 9:21
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:21 · Colton Boomer 26 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 15Pregame prior+41.9Home team on offense+0.6Score differential+0.0Blowout margin−0.2Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 9:21: Colton Boomer 26 yd FG GOOD — VILL win probability +1.1 pts (now 7%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 4:51: Jordan McDonald run for 1 yd for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK) — UCF win probability +0.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 1:01: Jordan McDonald run for 1 yd for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK) — UCF win probability +1.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 7:47: RJ Harvey run for 5 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK) — UCF win probability +1.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 5:04: Timmy McClain pass complete to Javon Baker for 25 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK) — UCF win probability +1.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 6 of 8VILL made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00UCF 4th & 3 at VILL 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    94.7%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    94.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:21UCF 4th & 6 at VILL 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    93.1%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:08VILL 4th & 9 at VILL 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:14VILL 4th & 18 at VILL 17, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:12UCF 4th & 2 at UCF 48, up 10
    Close callPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.9%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:32VILL 4th & 10 at VILL 43, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:49UCF 4th & 24 at UCF 49, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:32VILL 4th & 3 at VILL 27, down 17
    Close callPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:23VILL 4th & 17 at VILL 30, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:54VILL 4th & 2 at VILL 33, down 31
    Close callPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:25UCF 4th & 5 at VILL 23, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:49VILL 4th & 6 at UCF 49, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:44UCF 4th & 2 at UCF 28, up 34
    Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:18VILL 4th & 9 at midfield, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:00VILL 4th & 3 at UCF 18, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:01VILL 4th & 2 at VILL 33, down 41
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:38UCF 4th & 6 at VILL 47, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:38VILL 4th & 8 at VILL 44, down 41
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:33UCF 4th & 7 at VILL 40, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6VILL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 4:51UCF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:01UCF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:47UCF Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:04UCF Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:12UCF Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:42VILL Touchdown, down 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:22UCF Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:44VILL Touchdown, down 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1FG
15 plays · 69 yds · 5:3994% → 93%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
94.3%
Timmy McClain pass complete to RJ Harvey for 9 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
94.3%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
94.3%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 32Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+22
94.3%
RJ Harvey run for 22 yds to the VILL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
94.3%
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the VILL 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
94.3%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+2
94.3%
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the VILL 39Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 39
+22
94.3%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 22 yds to the VILL 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
94.3%
Timmy McClain run for 3 yds to the VILL 14Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
94.3%
RJ Harvey run for no gain to the VILL 14Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+8
94.3%
Johnny Richardson run for 8 yds to the VILL 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
94.3%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 2 yards to the VILL 8Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
94.3%
Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the VILL 6Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
94.3%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+26
93.2%
Colton Boomer 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:057% → 7%
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
93.1%
Connor Watkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+1
93.2%
Jalen Jackson run for 1 yd to the VILL 19Similar
Q1 9:13
3RD & 9
OWN 19
0
93.2%
Connor Watkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:08
4TH & 9
OWN 19
0
93.0%
Nathan Fondacaro punt for 53 ydsSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
93.0%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3TD
9 plays · 45 yds · 3:1793% → 93%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 15
50
+5
92.9%
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the VILL 45Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-1
93.0%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Jarrad Baker for a loss of 1 yard to the VILL 46Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+15
92.9%
Timmy McClain run for 15 yds to the VILL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
93.1%
RICHARDSON, Johnny rush to the right for a gain of 6 yards to the VU25 (TRINH, Ty;GLOVER, Elijah). PENALTY Before the snap, VU Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the VU31 to the VU26. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 5
OPP 26
0
93.1%
Johnny Richardson run for no gain to the VILL 26Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+4
93.1%
Johnny Richardson run for 4 yds to the VILL 22Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+19
93.0%
Timmy McClain run for 19 yds to the VILL 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
93.1%
Jordan McDonald run for 2 yds to the VILL 1Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.3%
Jordan McDonald run for 1 yd for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:377% → 7%
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.7%
Jalen Jackson run for 1 yd to the VILL 26Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
92.7%
Connor Watkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:51
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-9
92.8%
Connor Watkins sacked by Matthew Alexander for a loss of 9 yards to the VILL 17Similar
Q1 3:14
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
92.9%
Nathan Fondacaro punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0293% → 93%
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
93.0%
Xavier Townsend run for 4 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+4
93.0%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Javon Baker for 4 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q1 3:14
3RD & 2
OWN 48
0
92.9%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:12
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
92.5%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 6INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
92.5%
Connor Watkins pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7TD
3 plays · 2 yds · 1:0093% → 95%
Q1 2:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
92.8%
Jordan McDonald run for 1 yd to the VILL 1Similar
Q1 2:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
92.8%
Jordan McDonald run for no gain to the VILL 1Similar
Q1 1:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.8%
Jordan McDonald run for 1 yd for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:296% → 5%
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
94.2%
DeeWil Barlee run for 13 yds to the VILL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
94.4%
Rayjuon Pringle run for no gain to the VILL 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
94.5%
Connor Watkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
94.5%
Connor Watkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:32
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
94.6%
Nathan Fondacaro punt for 49 yds , Xavier Townsend returns for no gain UCF Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the UCF 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:4395% → 95%
Q2 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+36
94.7%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 36 yds to the VILL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:32
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
94.9%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:32
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
94.9%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 4 yds to the VILL 33Similar
Q2 14:32
3RD & 6
OPP 33
-18
94.8%
Timmy McClain sacked for a loss of 18 yards to the UCF 49Similar
Q2 12:49
4TH & 24
OWN 49
0
94.7%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Rayjuon Pringle at the VILL 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 2:176% → 5%
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+10
94.5%
Jalen Jackson run for 10 yds to the VILL 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
94.5%
Jalen Jackson run for 3 yds to the VILL 23Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
94.5%
Connor Watkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+4
94.6%
Connor Watkins run for 4 yds to the VILL 27Similar
Q2 10:32
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
94.6%
Nathan Fondacaro punt for 18 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11TD
8 plays · 45 yds · 2:4595% → 97%
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
95.3%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+12
95.3%
RJ Harvey run for 12 yds to the VILL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
95.3%
Timmy McClain run for 7 yds to the VILL 26Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+4
95.3%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the VILL 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
95.3%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 5 yds to the VILL 17Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+7
95.3%
Timmy McClain pass complete to RJ Harvey for 7 yds to the VILL 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
95.3%
Timmy McClain run for 5 yds to the VILL 5Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
96.9%
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:244% → 3%
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
96.5%
DeeWil Barlee run for 12 yds to the VILL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
96.3%
Connor Watkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
96.3%
Connor Watkins pass complete to Justin Marcus for 1 yd to the VILL 38Similar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 9
OWN 38
-8
96.4%
Connor Watkins sacked by Tre'Mon Morris-Brash for a loss of 8 yards to the VILL 30Similar
Q2 5:23
4TH & 17
OWN 30
0
96.7%
Nathan Fondacaro punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13TD
2 plays · 73 yds · 0:0697% → 99%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+63
97.1%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 73 yds for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Illegal Block (Jarrad Baker) to the VILL 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
98.9%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Javon Baker for 25 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:101% → 1%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.8%
TD Ayo-Durojaiye run for 5 yds to the VILL 30Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
98.7%
Jalen Jackson run for 4 yds to the VILL 34Similar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
98.6%
Jalen Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the VILL 33Similar
Q2 2:54
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
98.9%
Nathan Fondacaro punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 2:2999% → 99%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+21
99.1%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Javon Baker for 21 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-4
99.1%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 38Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 14
OWN 38
+19
99.1%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 19 yds to the VILL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.1%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+15
99.1%
Johnny Richardson run for 15 yds to the VILL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
99.1%
Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the VILL 26Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+6
99.1%
Johnny Richardson run for 6 yds to the VILL 20Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 2
OPP 20
-3
99.1%
Xavier Townsend run for a loss of 3 yards to the VILL 23Similar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+41
99.2%
Colton Boomer 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.3%
DeeWil Barlee run for 2 yds to the VILL 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 3:111% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
99.3%
Connor Watkins pass complete to TD Ayo-Durojaiye for 22 yds to the VILL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.3%
TD Ayo-Durojaiye run for no gain to the VILL 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-10
99.3%
WATKINS, Connor scrambles to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the VU49 (CELISCAR, Josh). PENALTY VU Holding on PICARD, Jake enforced 10 yards from the VU47 to the VU37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 37
+8
99.3%
Connor Watkins pass complete to Daniel Lopes for 8 yds to the VILL 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 45
+6
99.3%
Connor Watkins pass complete to Antonio Johnson for 6 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q3 11:49
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
99.5%
Nathan Fondacaro punt for 46 yds, downed at the UCF 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:05100% → 100%
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+9
99.5%
Timmy McClain run for 9 yds to the UCF 12Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 1
OWN 12
+8
99.5%
RJ Harvey run for 8 yds to the UCF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
99.5%
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd to the UCF 21Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
99.5%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:49
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+5
99.5%
Villanova Penalty, Offsides (Ayden Howard) to the UCF 26Similar
Q3 11:49
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+2
99.5%
Timmy McClain run for 2 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q3 9:44
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
99.6%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:260% → 0%
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
99.6%
Jalen Jackson run for 15 yds to the VILL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
99.6%
Jalen Jackson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 9
50
0
99.6%
Connor Watkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 9
50
0
99.6%
Connor Watkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:18
4TH & 9
50
0
99.6%
Nathan Fondacaro punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Xavier Townsend at the UCF 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20TD
9 plays · 87 yds · 3:06100% → 100%
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
99.7%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Chauncey Magwood for 4 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+18
99.7%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Chauncey Magwood for 18 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
99.7%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 8 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+4
99.7%
Johnny Richardson run for 4 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
99.7%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Javon Baker for 13 yds to the VILL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
99.7%
Timmy McClain run for 2 yds to the VILL 38Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
99.7%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+14
99.7%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Javon Baker for 14 yds to the VILL 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
99.8%
RJ Harvey run for 24 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 21TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:300% → 0%
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
DeeWil Barlee run for no gain to the VILL 25Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Connor Watkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.8%
Connor Watkins pass complete to Rayjuon Pringle for 11 yds to the VILL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
99.8%
DeeWil Barlee run for 4 yds to the VILL 40Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+35
99.8%
Connor Watkins pass complete to DeeWil Barlee for 35 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
99.7%
Jalen Jackson run for 2 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 8
OPP 23
-1
99.8%
Jalen Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 24Similar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+6
99.8%
Connor Watkins pass complete to Daniel Lopes for 6 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+10
99.8%
Connor Watkins pass complete to Rayjuon Pringle for 10 yds to the UCF 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.9%
Jalen Jackson run for no gain to the UCF 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
99.9%
UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (Lee Hunter) to the UCF 3Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.8%
Connor Watkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.8%
Connor Watkins run for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:20100% → 100%
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.8%
Johnny Richardson run for 3 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
99.8%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 8 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
99.9%
Johnny Richardson run for 7 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+10
99.9%
Jordan McDonald run for 10 yds to the VILL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
99.9%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Jaylon Griffin for 11 yds to the VILL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
99.9%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Jaylon Griffin for 36 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:210% → 0%
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Connor Watkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
DeeWil Barlee run for 9 yds to the VILL 34Similar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
99.9%
DeeWil Barlee run for a loss of 1 yard to the VILL 33Similar
Q4 10:01
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Nathan Fondacaro punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:23100% → 100%
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
99.9%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Max Holler for 5 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+5
99.9%
Jordan McDonald run for 5 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
99.9%
Jordan McDonald run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 9
50
0
99.9%
Dylan Rizk pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:28
3RD & 9
50
+3
99.9%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Jaylon Griffin for 3 yds to the VILL 47Similar
Q4 7:38
4TH & 6
OPP 47
+5
99.9%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Chauncey Magwood for 5 yds to the VILL 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 25TD
6 plays · 58 yds · 2:540% → 0%
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
99.9%
TD Ayo-Durojaiye run for 4 yds to the VILL 46Similar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+1
99.9%
TD Ayo-Durojaiye run for 1 yd to the VILL 47Similar
Q4 7:38
3RD & 5
OWN 47
-3
99.9%
TD Ayo-Durojaiye run for a loss of 3 yards to the VILL 44Similar
Q4 7:38
4TH & 8
OWN 44
+45
99.9%
Connor Watkins pass complete to Jaylan Sanchez for 45 yds to the UCF 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
99.9%
Connor Watkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.9%
TD Ayo-Durojaiye run for 11 yds for a TD (Matthew Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 26END OF GAME
13 plays · 64 yds · 4:44100% → 100%
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Demarkcus Bowman run for 5 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
99.9%
Jordan McDonald run for 4 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q4 4:44
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+9
99.9%
Jordan McDonald run for 9 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
99.9%
Jordan McDonald run for 2 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+4
99.9%
Jordan McDonald run for 4 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q4 4:44
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+8
99.9%
Dylan Rizk run for 8 yds to the VILL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
99.9%
Kam Ingram run for 5 yds to the VILL 38Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+4
100.0%
Kam Ingram run for 4 yds to the VILL 34Similar
Q4 1:33
3RD & 1
OPP 34
-6
100.0%
Dylan Rizk sacked by Danny Abraham for a loss of 6 yards to the VILL 40Similar
Q4 1:33
4TH & 7
OPP 40
+15
100.0%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Kam Ingram for 15 yds to the VILL 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
100.0%
Kam Ingram run for 12 yds to the VILL 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
100.0%
Kam Ingram run for 2 yds to the VILL 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 1:01
Jordan McDonald run for 1 yd for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
+1.9
TD · Q2 5:04
Timmy McClain pass complete to Javon Baker for 25 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
+1.9
TD · Q2 7:47
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
+1.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com