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Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreWYO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:42 · Ryan Sanborn punt for 34 yds, downed at the WYO 4
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q3 0:20: John Hoyland 36 yd FG GOOD — WYO win probability +11.3 pts (now 25%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:12: Xavier Worthy 44 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick) — TEX win probability +13.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 14:12: Harrison Waylee run for a loss of 1 yard to the WYO 24 — WYO win probability +4.6 pts (now 12%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:01: Quinn Ewers 5 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick) — TEX win probability +4.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:46: Jerrin Thompson 27 Yd Interception Return (Bert Auburn Kick) — TEX win probability +4.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 7 of 7WYO made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 12:16TEX 4th & 15 at TEX 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.1% before the snapGo for it96.0%−0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.1%average punt
- Q1 11:13WYO 4th & 6 at WYO 19, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snapGo for it4.1%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.1%average punt
- Q1 9:46TEX 4th & 7 at WYO 19, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.5% before the snapGo for it95.4%−<0.135% to convertField goalTheir call95.5%77% to makePunt95.1%−0.4average punt
- Q1 4:48WYO 4th & 8 at TEX 46, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snapGo for it5.7%−<0.134% to convertField goal5.6%−0.223% to makePuntTheir call5.8%average punt
- Q1 1:11TEX 4th & 1 at WYO 38, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call93.2%70% to convertField goal92.8%−0.438% to makePunt92.7%−0.4average punt
- Q2 15:00TEX 4th & 1 at WYO 22, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.7%71% to convertField goal92.4%−0.372% to makePunt91.5%−1.2average punt
- Q2 7:43WYO 4th & 16 at WYO 43, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snapGo for it7.9%−0.716% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.6%average punt
- Q2 7:18TEX 4th & 10 at TEX 20, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.8% before the snapGo for it90.3%−0.427% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.7%average punt
- Q2 5:02WYO 4th & 3 at WYO 37, down 3Close callPunted · 9.3% before the snapGo for it9.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.1%−0.2average punt
- Q2 3:41TEX 4th & 4 at TEX 23, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.3% before the snapGo for it89.1%−0.247% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.3%average punt
- Q2 0:00WYO 4th & 2 at WYO 49, down 3Close callPunted · 12.4% before the snapGo for it12.8%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.2%−0.6average punt
- Q3 10:42TEX 4th & 19 at WYO 38, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.8% before the snapGo for it85.1%−1.012% to convertField goal86.1%−<0.138% to makePuntTheir call86.1%average punt
- Q3 10:42WYO 4th & 1 at TEX 10, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call14.8%71% to convertField goal13.1%−1.788% to makePunt8.1%−6.7average punt
- Q3 0:20WYO 4th & 19 at TEX 19, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.5% before the snapGo for it16.3%−3.310% to convertField goalTheir call19.5%77% to makePunt11.6%−7.9average punt
- Q4 11:55WYO 4th & 3 at WYO 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snapGo for it11.4%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.4%average punt
- Q4 7:04WYO 4th & 8 at WYO 27, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 3 of 4WYO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 12:45WYO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call3.9%97% to makeGo for two3.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:45TEX Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.7%97% to makeGo for two92.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:12TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.7%97% to makeGo for two84.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 9:01TEX Touchdown, up 13 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call95.4%−0.297% to makeGo for two95.6%45% to convert
- Q4 8:46TEX Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWYODrive 1TD5 plays · 75 yds · 2:152% → 3%
TEXDrive 2PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:2997% → 97%
Q1 12:16
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
97.2%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 53 yds , Caleb Cooley returns for no gain to the WYO 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 3PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:033% → 3%
TEXDrive 4FG5 plays · 19 yds · 1:2797% → 97%
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
97.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Keilan Robinson for 16 yds to the WYO 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 5PUNT12 plays · 40 yds · 4:533% → 4%
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
96.9%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 4 yds to the WYO 18Similar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+5
96.9%
QB Keeper SVOBODA, Evan rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the WYO27 (GBENDA, David;SWEAT, T'Vondre). PENALTY Before the snap, TEX Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the WYO23 to the WYO28 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+20
96.9%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 20 yds to the TEX 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
96.0%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Devin Boddie Jr. for 4 yds to the TEX 44Similar
Q1 4:48
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
95.7%
Clayton Stewart punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Xavier Worthy at the TEX 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6TD20 plays · 90 yds · 8:0396% → 95%
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
95.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 8 yds to the TEX 18Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+8
95.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 8 yds to the TEX 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
95.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 6 yds to the WYO 25Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
94.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 2 yds to the WYO 15Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+14
94.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 14 yds to the WYO 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Byron Murphy II for 1 yd for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 7PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 4:025% → 6%
Q2 11:45
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+12
94.6%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 12 yds to the WYO 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2594% → 93%
Q2 7:18
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
93.0%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Caleb Cooley at the WYO 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 9PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 2:167% → 7%
Q2 7:18
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+2
93.6%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Devin Boddie Jr. for 2 yds to the WYO 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2193% → 92%
Q2 5:02
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+2
92.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 2 yds to the TEX 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 11PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 3:418% → 9%
Q2 3:41
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+6
92.4%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 6 yds to the WYO 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+2
91.7%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Treyton Welch for 2 yds to the WYO 47Similar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+2
90.8%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Treyton Welch for 2 yds to the WYO 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12PUNT11 plays · 30 yds · 4:1190% → 88%
Q3 14:53
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+14
90.5%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 14 yds to the WYO 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+16
90.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 16 yds to the WYO 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 9
OPP 28
-10
91.0%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Sabastian Harsh for a loss of 10 yards to the WYO 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 13FG18 plays · 77 yds · 10:2212% → 25%
Q3 10:42
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+19
88.0%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Devin Boddie Jr. for 19 yds to the WYO 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+5
87.1%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 5 yds to the WYO 44Similar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+18
86.7%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Ayir Asante for 18 yds to the TEX 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+15
86.4%
SVOBODA, Evan pass to the right incomplete intended for MARQUEZ, Ryan thrown to the TEX19. PENALTY TEX Pass Interference on BROOKS, Terrance enforced 15 yards to the TEX19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+7
86.3%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 7 yds to the TEX 10Similar
Q3 10:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
-9
86.4%
Evan Svoboda sacked by Barryn Sorrell for a loss of 9 yards to the TEX 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14TD4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4877% → 93%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 15PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 2:1712% → 10%
TEXDrive 16TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:5492% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 17INT TD2 plays · 0 yds · 0:155% → 1%
WYODrive 18PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:421% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19FUMBLE3 plays · 11 yds · 1:0899% → 99%
WYODrive 20END OF GAME13 plays · 47 yds · 5:561% → 1%
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+18
99.4%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Treyton Welch for 18 yds to the TEX 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
99.4%
JAMES, D.Q. rush up the middle for no gain to the TEX15 (CRAWFORD, Kitan). PENALTY TEX Offsides on BROUGHTON, Vernon enforced 5 yards from the TEX15 to the TEX10 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-15
99.4%
Wyoming Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Treyton Welch) to the TEX 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:12
Xavier Worthy 44 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)
+13.4
FG · Q3 0:20
John Hoyland 36 yd FG GOOD
-11.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 14:12
Harrison Waylee run for a loss of 1 yard to the WYO 24
-4.6