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TCU

TCU 36 at Houston 13

HOU
2023 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreTCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:20 · Jordy Sandy punt for 43 yds, downed at the HOU 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 120Home team on offense−20.7Pregame prior−8.2Score differential−9.6Garbage-time factor−4.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 7:08: Griffin Kell 40 yd FG GOOD — TCU win probability +3.8 pts (now 71%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 5:37: Griffin Kell 53 yd FG GOOD — TCU win probability +1.8 pts (now 74%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:56: Jack Martin 44 Yd Field Goal — TCU win probability +8.1 pts (now 69%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:29: C. Morris pass to S. Williams for 31 yds for a TD (G. Kell PAT MISSED) — TCU win probability +7.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:55: T. Sanders run for 18 yds for a TD (G. Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +3.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11TCU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 10:06HOU 4th & 14 at TCU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    32.5%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:25HOU 4th & 1 at TCU 23, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    34.6%−0.4
    70% to make
    Punt
    33.5%−1.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:33TCU 4th & 6 at TCU 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:39HOU 4th & 2 at TCU 31, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.6%−0.4
    54% to make
    Punt
    35.2%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:15TCU 4th & 3 at HOU 15, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    63.8%−0.3
    83% to make
    Punt
    60.7%−3.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:44HOU 4th & 1 at TCU 5, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.8%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    36.3%−1.6
    92% to make
    Punt
    32.2%−5.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:08TCU 4th & 9 at HOU 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    59.0%−4.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:37TCU 4th & 6 at HOU 35, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.6%−0.6
    45% to make
    Punt
    68.0%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:56HOU 4th & 10 at TCU 27, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    35.2%−6.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:07TCU 4th & 2 at HOU 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    71.5%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:50HOU 4th & 15 at HOU 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−2.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:57HOU 4th & 13 at HOU 29, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−1.5
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:20TCU 4th & 5 at HOU 44, up 13
    Close callPunted · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    80.1%−1.9
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:05HOU 4th & 7 at HOU 4, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:47TCU 4th & 6 at HOU 19, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    79.2%−7.0
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:45HOU 4th & 10 at TCU 39, down 16
    Close callPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    13.9%−0.3
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00TCU 4th & 1 at HOU 42, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    88.5%−2.9
    30% to make
    Punt
    89.0%−2.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:52TCU 4th & 13 at HOU 32, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%−0.7
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.6%
    51% to make
    Punt
    93.0%−0.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:23HOU 4th & 7 at TCU 48, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.3%−0.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:27HOU 4th & 17 at TCU 22, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 13:29TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 12:29TCU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 2:55TCU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TCUDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3170% → 70%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
30.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jared Wiley for 10 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
30.0%
Emani Bailey run for 5 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+14
30.0%
Emani Bailey run for 14 yds to the HOU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
30.0%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
30.0%
MORRIS, Chandler pass deep to the right incomplete intended for NOWELL, Blake thrown to the HOU20. PENALTY HOU Offsides on WILLIAMS, Sedrick enforced 5 yards from the HOU46 to the HOU41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+8
30.0%
Emani Bailey run for 8 yds to the HOU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
30.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Warren Thompson for 33 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2FG
8 plays · 48 yds · 3:2330% → 31%
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
30.3%
Stacy Sneed run for a loss of 2 yards to the HOU 23Similar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+1
30.2%
Donovan Smith run for 1 yd to the HOU 24Similar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+53
30.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 53 yds to the TCU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
30.5%
Stacy Sneed run for no gain to the TCU 23Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+6
31.0%
Stacy Sneed run for 6 yds to the TCU 17Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 4
OPP 17
-10
30.9%
Donovan Smith sacked by Johnny Hodges and Jamoi Hodge for a loss of 10 yards to the TCU 27Similar
Q1 10:06
4TH & 14
OPP 27
+44
31.3%
Jack Martin 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3FUMBLE
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0869% → 69%
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
31.5%
Houston Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-8
31.2%
Chandler Morris sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the TCU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2932% → 32%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
32.3%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+9
32.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 9 yds to the TCU 23Similar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 1
OPP 23
0
32.1%
Donovan Smith run for no gain to the TCU 23Similar
Q1 8:25
4TH & 1
OPP 23
0
32.3%
Brandon Campbell run for no gain to the TCU 23Similar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-10
31.9%
BAILEY, Emani rush to the left for a gain of 5 yards to the TCU28 (AJIJOLAIYA, Hakeem). PENALTY TCU Holding on PATRICK, Willis enforced 10 yards from the TCU23 to the TCU13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:5268% → 67%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 20
OWN 13
+9
31.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Emani Bailey for 9 yds to the TCU 22Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+3
31.9%
Emani Bailey run for 3 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+2
32.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to JP Richardson for 2 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q1 6:33
4TH & 6
OWN 27
0
32.9%
Jordy Sandy punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6MISSED FG
7 plays · 42 yds · 1:5432% → 33%
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
32.3%
Donovan Smith run for 3 yds to the HOU 30Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+16
32.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Matthew Golden for 16 yds to the HOU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
33.1%
SMITH, Donovan pass deep to the right incomplete intended for MANJACK IV, Joseph thrown to the TCU25. PENALTY TCU Pass Interference on BRADFORD, Millard enforced 15 yards to the TCU39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
33.3%
Parker Jenkins run for 8 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 2
OPP 31
0
33.5%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:33
3RD & 2
OPP 31
0
33.1%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:39
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+48
33.4%
Jack Martin 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7DOWNS
9 plays · 17 yds · 3:2467% → 67%
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-15
32.6%
TCU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the TCU 23Similar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 18
OWN 23
+18
33.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 18 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
32.2%
Trey Sanders run for 6 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+11
32.2%
Trey Sanders run for 11 yds to the HOU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+20
32.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 20 yds to the HOU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
31.6%
Trey Sanders run for 6 yds to the HOU 16Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 4
OPP 16
-2
31.6%
Trey Sanders run for a loss of 2 yards to the HOU 18Similar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+3
31.9%
Emani Bailey run for 3 yds to the HOU 15Similar
Q1 1:15
4TH & 3
OPP 15
0
32.9%
Chandler Morris pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8DOWNS
10 plays · 43 yds · 3:3135% → 36%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
35.2%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+9
35.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 9 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+7
35.4%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 7 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
36.3%
Donovan Smith sacked by Paul Oyewale for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+21
35.4%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Matthew Golden for 21 yds to the TCU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
36.2%
Stacy Sneed run for 3 yds to the TCU 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 11
0
36.2%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+6
36.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Matthew Golden for 6 yds to the TCU 5Similar
Q2 12:44
4TH & 1
OPP 5
0
35.8%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9FG
15 plays · 73 yds · 5:3665% → 71%
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
34.8%
Emani Bailey run for 1 yd to the TCU 6Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 9
OWN 6
0
35.0%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:44
3RD & 9
OWN 6
+10
35.4%
Chandler Morris run for 10 yds to the TCU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
34.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to JP Richardson for 9 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+10
33.6%
Trent Battle run for 10 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
33.8%
Chandler Morris sacked by Trimarcus Cheeks for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 33Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+16
34.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to JP Richardson for 16 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
33.1%
MORRIS, Chandler pass to the right complete for 2 yards to BAILEY, Jordyn caught at the TCU43 and advanced to the HOU49 (FLEMING, Malik;HAULCY, A.J.). PENALTY HOU Offsides on CEASER, Nelson enforced 5 yards from the TCU49 to the HOU46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 5
OPP 46
+9
32.7%
JoJo Earle run for 9 yds to the HOU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
32.8%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+14
32.9%
Emani Bailey run for 14 yds to the HOU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-6
32.5%
Chandler Morris sacked by David Ugwoegbu for a loss of 6 yards to the HOU 29Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 16
OPP 29
+7
32.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Chase Curtis for 7 yds to the HOU 22Similar
Q2 12:44
3RD & 9
OPP 22
0
33.1%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:08
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+40
29.3%
Griffin Kell 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10INT
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:2930% → 31%
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
29.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Matthew Golden for 13 yds to the HOU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
30.7%
Donovan Smith pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11FG
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:0272% → 74%
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
28.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to JP Richardson for 14 yds to the HOU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
27.9%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
28.0%
Trey Sanders run for 4 yds to the HOU 35Similar
Q2 6:39
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
28.2%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:37
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+53
26.4%
Griffin Kell 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2363% → 67%
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
36.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Major Everhart for 22 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
34.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jared Wiley for 4 yds to the HOU 49Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+6
34.6%
Chandler Morris run for 6 yds to the HOU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+26
34.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jack Bech for 26 yds to the HOU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
32.9%
Emani Bailey run for 1 yd to the HOU 16Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+16
33.0%
E. Bailey run for 16 yds for a TD (G. Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13FG
8 plays · 24 yds · 1:5239% → 31%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
38.8%
Stacy Sneed run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 9
50
+12
38.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 12 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
39.3%
Stacy Sneed run for 6 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+5
40.3%
Donovan Smith run for 5 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
40.3%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
40.2%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
38.7%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+44
30.6%
Jack Martin 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14MISSED FG
8 plays · 26 yds · 0:4973% → 75%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
26.8%
Corey Wren run for 5 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+8
26.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Savion Williams for 8 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
25.6%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+8
26.0%
Chandler Morris run for 8 yds to the HOU 47Similar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 2
OPP 47
0
25.2%
Corey Wren run for no gain to the HOU 47Similar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+5
26.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Corey Wren for 5 yds to the HOU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+50
24.7%
Griffin Kell 60 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:0630% → 28%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
29.7%
Houston Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Donovan Smith) to the HOU 3Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 23
OWN 2
+8
29.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stephon Johnson Jr. for 8 yds to the HOU 10Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 15
OWN 10
0
28.7%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:50
4TH & 15
OWN 10
0
28.2%
Laine Wilkins punt for 50 yds , JoJo Earle returns for no gain to the TCU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 1:2172% → 82%
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
27.7%
Savion Williams run for 3 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+14
27.3%
Emani Bailey run for 14 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
26.3%
MORRIS, Chandler pass short to the right incomplete intended for WILEY, Jared broken up by FLEMING, Malik at the HOU48. PENALTY HOU Roughing the Passer on ROBINSON, Malik enforced 15 yards from the TCU47 to the HOU38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
25.9%
Emani Bailey run for 12 yds to the HOU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
25.6%
MORRIS, Chandler pass deep to the right incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Savion thrown to the HOU10. PENALTY TCU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on COLEMAN, Brandon enforced 5 yards from the HOU26 to the HOU31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:29
1ST & 15
OPP 31
+31
18.1%
C. Morris pass to S. Williams for 31 yds for a TD (G. Kell PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2523% → 21%
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
23.0%
Stacy Sneed run for no gain to the HOU 32Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
22.9%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:22
3RD & 10
OWN 32
-3
21.9%
Donovan Smith sacked by Johnny Hodges and Micheal Ibukun-Okeyode for a loss of 3 yards to the HOU 29Similar
Q3 10:57
4TH & 13
OWN 29
0
21.4%
Laine Wilkins punt for 51 yds, downed at the TCU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 2:3782% → 82%
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
18.3%
Emani Bailey run for 6 yds to the TCU 26Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
18.8%
Emani Bailey run for 3 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+8
19.1%
Chandler Morris run for 8 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
17.6%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+14
17.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to JP Richardson for 14 yds to the HOU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
16.7%
Trey Sanders run for 5 yds to the HOU 44Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
17.3%
Trey Sanders run for no gain to the HOU 44Similar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
17.6%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:20
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
17.8%
Jordy Sandy punt for 43 yds, downed at the HOU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:1521% → 18%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
20.6%
Stacy Sneed run for no gain to the HOU 1Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
20.4%
Donovan Smith run for no gain to the HOU 1Similar
Q3 6:16
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+3
17.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 3 yds to the HOU 4Similar
Q3 6:05
4TH & 7
OWN 4
0
17.5%
Laine Wilkins punt for 48 yds, downed at the HOU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20FG
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:1887% → 89%
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
13.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Major Everhart for 4 yds to the HOU 33Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 6
OPP 33
-3
12.8%
Emani Bailey run for a loss of 3 yards to the HOU 36Similar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+13
13.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Emani Bailey for 13 yds to the HOU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
12.8%
Emani Bailey run for 2 yds to the HOU 21Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+2
12.8%
Emani Bailey run for 2 yds to the HOU 19Similar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 6
OPP 19
0
12.9%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:47
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+37
11.4%
Griffin Kell 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:5513% → 13%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
13.3%
Parker Jenkins run for 3 yds to the HOU 28Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
13.3%
Parker Jenkins run for 2 yds to the HOU 30Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+31
13.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 31 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
15.1%
Parker Jenkins run for 2 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+3
15.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Mike O'Laughlin for 3 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 5
OPP 34
0
15.2%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:40
4TH & 5
OPP 34
-5
14.8%
Houston Penalty, False Start (Reuben Unije) to the TCU 39Similar
Q3 0:45
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
13.3%
Laine Wilkins punt for 35 yds, downed at the TCU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22MISSED FG
16 plays · 64 yds · 6:5392% → 94%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+19
8.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Major Everhart for 19 yds to the TCU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
8.4%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+1
8.2%
Emani Bailey run for 1 yd to the TCU 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+10
8.5%
Chandler Morris run for 10 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
7.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Savion Williams for 15 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
7.3%
Emani Bailey run for 5 yds to the HOU 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+3
7.1%
Chandler Morris run for 3 yds to the HOU 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+1
7.1%
Emani Bailey run for 1 yd to the HOU 42Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+2
8.1%
Emani Bailey run for 2 yds to the HOU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
7.3%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+2
7.3%
Chandler Morris run for 2 yds to the HOU 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+9
7.4%
Chandler Morris run for 9 yds to the HOU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-13
6.8%
Jack Bech run for a loss of 13 yards to the HOU 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 23
OPP 42
+9
7.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 9 yds to the HOU 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 33
+1
7.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Emani Bailey for 1 yd to the HOU 32Similar
Q4 8:52
4TH & 13
OPP 32
+50
5.8%
Griffin Kell 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:296% → 5%
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
6.0%
Stacy Sneed run for 2 yds to the HOU 34Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
6.0%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:52
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+15
6.0%
Donovan Smith run for 15 yds to the HOU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
6.5%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
6.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 4 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q4 8:52
3RD & 6
OPP 47
-1
6.6%
Donovan Smith sacked by Shad Banks Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 48Similar
Q4 6:23
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
5.3%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24TD
6 plays · 52 yds · 3:2896% → 99%
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
4.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to JP Richardson for 5 yds to the HOU 47Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+4
3.9%
Emani Bailey run for 4 yds to the HOU 43Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+13
3.9%
Chandler Morris run for 13 yds to the HOU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
3.9%
Emani Bailey run for 9 yds to the HOU 21Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+3
3.9%
Emani Bailey run for 3 yds to the HOU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
0.6%
T. Sanders run for 18 yds for a TD (G. Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 25DOWNS
8 plays · 60 yds · 2:191% → 1%
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
0.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 7 yds to the HOU 39Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+26
1.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 26 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-3
1.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stacy Sneed for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 18Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 13
OPP 18
0
1.1%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+20
1.2%
Stacy Sneed run for 20 yds to the TCU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 13
OPP 18
-4
0.6%
Donovan Smith sacked by Jaionte McMillan for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 22Similar
Q4 0:27
4TH & 17
OPP 22
0
0.6%
Donovan Smith pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
0.4%
Cam Cook run for 2 yds to the TCU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 0:56
Jack Martin 44 Yd Field Goal
-8.1
TD · Q3 12:29
C. Morris pass to S. Williams for 31 yds for a TD (G. Kell PAT MISSED)
-7.4
FG · Q2 7:08
Griffin Kell 40 yd FG GOOD
-3.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com