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M-OH

Miami (OH) 31 at Cincinnati 24

CIN
2023 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreM-OH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:42 · Corey Kiner run for a loss of 2 yards to the M-OH 3
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 12Pregame prior+28.3Home team on offense+0.3Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Blowout margin−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:22: Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 17 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — M-OH win probability +5.3 pts (now 31%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 7:23: Carter Brown 23 yd FG GOOD — CIN win probability +3.5 pts (now 73%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:01: Kevin Davis run for 1 yd for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — M-OH win probability +24.3 pts (now 59%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:52: Emory Jones 17 Yd Run (Emory Jones Pass to Chamon Metayer for Two-Point Conversion) — CIN win probability +24.0 pts (now 78%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 5:10: Graham Nicholson 20 yd FG GOOD — M-OH win probability +14.6 pts (now 50%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 7 of 8M-OH made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 9:42CIN 4th & 1 at M-OH 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    81.5%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    81.0%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:28M-OH 4th & 3 at M-OH 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:40CIN 4th & 9 at M-OH 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    77.8%−1.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:35M-OH 4th & 5 at CIN 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    21.7%−0.5
    32% to make
    Punt
    21.9%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:52CIN 4th & 5 at M-OH 5, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.4%
    92% to make
    Punt
    61.6%−5.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:27M-OH 4th & 1 at M-OH 34, up 1
    Close callPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.7%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:16CIN 4th & 17 at CIN 29, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−2.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:44M-OH 4th & 9 at M-OH 20, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:23CIN 4th & 6 at M-OH 6, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    55.7%−10.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:58M-OH 4th & 20 at M-OH 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−4.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:19CIN 4th & 8 at M-OH 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    70.4%−3.9
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:10M-OH 4th & 2 at CIN 2, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.0%−4.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    17.6%−22.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:44CIN 4th & 9 at CIN 26, tied
    Numbers favored punt by 6.3 ptsWent for it · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.1%−6.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    54.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:09CIN 4th & 10 at M-OH 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−14.7
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    28.5%−33.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 1 of 2M-OH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 14:45M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:47CIN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:22M-OH Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:01M-OH Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:52CIN Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    71.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    71.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
M-OHDrive 1TD
1 play · 79 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+79
80.6%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 79 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:5881% → 80%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
80.6%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 3 yds to the CIN 28Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+32
80.6%
Emory Jones pass complete to Payten Singletary for 32 yds to the M-OH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
80.6%
Corey Kiner run for 6 yds to the M-OH 34Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+22
80.6%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 22 yds to the M-OH 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
80.6%
Emory Jones run for 8 yds to the M-OH 4Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+4
80.2%
Corey Kiner run for 4 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
79.8%
Brett Gabbert pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4880% → 80%
Q1 11:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
80.2%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the M-OH 7Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
80.2%
Emory Jones run for 6 yds to the M-OH 1Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
80.1%
Corey Kiner run for no gain to the M-OH 1Similar
Q1 9:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
79.5%
Corey Kiner run for a loss of 2 yards to the M-OH 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:1421% → 22%
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
79.3%
Keyon Mozee run for 4 yds to the M-OH 7Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 6
OWN 7
0
79.3%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 6
OWN 7
+8
79.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Miles Marshall for 8 yds to the M-OH 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
79.3%
Rashad Amos run for 2 yds to the M-OH 17Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
79.2%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+5
79.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kevin Davis for 5 yds to the M-OH 22Similar
Q1 6:28
4TH & 3
OWN 22
0
78.5%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 60 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6FG
11 plays · 72 yds · 4:4878% → 78%
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
78.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 6 yds to the CIN 24Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+5
78.3%
Emory Jones pass complete to Evan Prater for 5 yds to the CIN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
78.3%
Myles Montgomery run for 8 yds to the CIN 37Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+18
78.7%
Emory Jones pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 18 yds to the M-OH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
78.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 15 yds to the M-OH 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
79.0%
Emory Jones run for no gain to the M-OH 30Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+19
79.0%
Ryan Montgomery run for 19 yds to the M-OH 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
79.0%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+1
79.0%
Ryan Montgomery run for 1 yd to the M-OH 10Similar
Q1 6:28
3RD & 9
OPP 10
0
78.8%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:40
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+28
77.8%
Carter Brown 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7TD
15 plays · 69 yds · 7:1222% → 31%
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
77.6%
Rashad Amos run for 3 yds to the M-OH 34Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+8
77.5%
Gage Larvadain run for 8 yds to the M-OH 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
76.6%
Rashad Amos run for a loss of 2 yards to the M-OH 40Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+8
77.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kenny Tracy for 8 yds to the M-OH 48Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+6
76.6%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Joe Wilkins Jr. for 6 yds to the CIN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-7
76.3%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Malik Vann for a loss of 7 yards to the M-OH 47Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 17
OWN 47
+2
77.1%
Rashad Amos run for 2 yds to the M-OH 49Similar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 15
OWN 49
+10
76.6%
Brett Gabbert run for 10 yds to the CIN 41Similar
Q2 11:35
4TH & 5
OPP 41
+26
76.1%
Brett Gabbert run for 26 yds to the CIN 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
74.4%
Kenny Tracy run for no gain to the CIN 15Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-2
74.7%
Gage Larvadain run for a loss of 2 yards to the CIN 17Similar
Q2 9:22
3RD & 12
OPP 17
+17
69.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 17 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8FG
18 plays · 79 yds · 7:2372% → 71%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
71.8%
KINER, Corey rush to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the CIN21 (RAY, Malik;MCKINNEY, Christian). PENALTY CIN Holding on BUFORD, Deondre enforced half the distance from the goal, 8 yards from the CIN16 to the CIN8 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 18
OWN 8
+5
71.5%
Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the CIN 13Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 13
OWN 13
+21
71.6%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 21 yds to the CIN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
72.1%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 6 yds to the CIN 40Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+5
73.5%
Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the CIN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
73.4%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
72.6%
Ryan Montgomery run for 9 yds to the M-OH 46Similar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+1
73.7%
Emory Jones run for 1 yd to the M-OH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+16
73.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 16 yds to the M-OH 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-7
74.8%
Ryan Montgomery run for a loss of 7 yards to the M-OH 36 Ryan Montgomery fumbled, recovered by CIN John WilliamsSimilar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 17
OPP 36
+13
69.6%
Emory Jones run for 13 yds to the M-OH 23Similar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+6
71.0%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 6 yds to the M-OH 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
72.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 10 yds to the M-OH 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
72.2%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the M-OH 5Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
72.2%
Corey Kiner run for no gain to the M-OH 5Similar
Q2 4:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
71.0%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
71.2%
Carter Brown 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:2532% → 32%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.1%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
68.3%
Brett Gabbert run for no gain to the M-OH 25Similar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
68.6%
Brett Gabbert run for 9 yds to the M-OH 34Similar
Q2 1:27
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
68.1%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10INT
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:2666% → 67%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+20
66.0%
Emory Jones pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 20 yds to the CIN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
67.2%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
66.7%
Emory Jones pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11FUMBLE
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
61.7%
Gage Larvadain run for 7 yds to the CIN 15 Gage Larvadain fumbled, recovered by CIN Deshawn PaceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:5466% → 65%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
65.6%
Emory Jones run for 3 yds to the CIN 18Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 18
-3
64.9%
Emory Jones sacked by Ty Wise for a loss of 3 yards to the CIN 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 1:3968% → 65%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
67.7%
Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the CIN 20Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 20
0
67.9%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+5
66.7%
JONES, Emory pass to the right intercepted by SALOPEK, Matt at the CIN34 intended for WIGGINS, Dee. Salopek return for 0 yards to the CIN34, End of Play. PENALTY Before the snap, MIA Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the CIN20 to the CIN25 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
68.0%
Emory Jones run for 11 yds to the CIN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
68.9%
Corey Kiner run for a loss of 2 yards to the CIN 34Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 12
OWN 34
0
67.9%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 12
OWN 34
-5
66.8%
Cincinnati Penalty, False Start (Luke Kandra) to the CIN 29Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 17
OWN 29
0
66.5%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:16
4TH & 17
OWN 29
0
64.9%
Mason Fletcher punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Gage Larvadain at the M-OH 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3235% → 33%
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
65.0%
Rashad Amos run for no gain to the M-OH 19Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
65.3%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:16
3RD & 10
OWN 19
-5
66.6%
Miami (OH) Penalty, Delay Of Game (Rashad Amos) to the M-OH 14Similar
Q3 13:16
3RD & 15
OWN 14
+6
66.6%
Brett Gabbert run for 6 yds to the M-OH 20Similar
Q3 11:44
4TH & 9
OWN 20
0
67.2%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the CIN 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15FG
11 plays · 62 yds · 4:2166% → 73%
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
66.4%
Emory Jones run for 13 yds to the CIN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
68.7%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
67.4%
Ryan Montgomery run for 9 yds to the M-OH 46Similar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+26
69.0%
Ryan Montgomery run for 26 yds to the M-OH 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
70.7%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+7
70.7%
Ryan Montgomery run for 7 yds to the M-OH 13Similar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+7
69.2%
Ryan Montgomery run for 7 yds to the M-OH 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
70.7%
Ryan Montgomery run for 2 yds to the M-OH 4Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
70.7%
Ryan Montgomery run for a loss of 2 yards to the M-OH 6Similar
Q3 11:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
69.3%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
72.8%
Carter Brown 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:2229% → 59%
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
70.6%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Joe Wilkins Jr. for 15 yds to the M-OH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
68.5%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Miles Marshall for 8 yds to the M-OH 48Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+7
67.1%
Kenny Tracy run for 7 yds to the CIN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
67.1%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
67.2%
Kenny Tracy run for 3 yds to the CIN 42Similar
Q3 7:23
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+22
67.6%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 22 yds to the CIN 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+19
65.5%
Brett Gabbert run for 19 yds to the CIN 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
65.6%
Aveon Smith run for no gain to the CIN 1Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
65.5%
AMOS, Rashad rush up the middle for no gain to the CIN1 (BRIGGS, Jowon;THREATS, Bryon). PENALTY Before the snap, CIN Illegal Substitution enforced half the distance from the goal, 0 yards from the CIN1 to the CIN1. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
41.3%
Kevin Davis run for 1 yd for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:0950% → 78%
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
49.8%
Ryan Montgomery run for 5 yds to the CIN 30Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
50.6%
Ryan Montgomery run for no gain to the CIN 30Similar
Q3 3:01
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
49.1%
Miami (OH) Penalty, Offsides (Brian Ugwu) to the CIN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
50.4%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 16 yds to the M-OH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
54.5%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 4 yds to the M-OH 45Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+13
54.7%
Emory Jones run for 13 yds to the M-OH 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
56.6%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+6
56.5%
Ryan Montgomery run for 6 yds to the M-OH 26Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+6
51.3%
Emory Jones run for 6 yds to the M-OH 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
53.5%
Ryan Montgomery run for 1 yd to the M-OH 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+2
53.5%
run for 2 yds to the M-OH 17Similar
Q4 13:52
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+17
77.5%
Emory Jones 17 Yd Run (Emory Jones Pass to Chamon Metayer for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:5428% → 25%
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
72.4%
Rashad Amos run for 13 yds to the M-OH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
70.7%
Rashad Amos run for 3 yds to the M-OH 41Similar
Q4 13:52
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-3
69.4%
Rashad Amos run for a loss of 3 yards to the M-OH 38Similar
Q4 13:52
3RD & 10
OWN 38
-5
72.6%
Miami (OH) Penalty, False Start (Reid Holskey) to the M-OH 33Similar
Q4 13:52
3RD & 15
OWN 33
-5
74.2%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Bryon Threats for a loss of 5 yards to the M-OH 28Similar
Q4 10:58
4TH & 20
OWN 28
0
74.6%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 63 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 45 yds · 2:3974% → 71%
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
74.4%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the CIN 12Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+3
74.6%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the CIN 15Similar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+37
73.4%
Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 37 yds to the M-OH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
78.5%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+1
78.1%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the M-OH 47Similar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+5
77.0%
Miami (OH) Penalty, Offsides (Corey Suttle) to the M-OH 42Similar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+1
78.0%
Ryan Montgomery run for 1 yd to the M-OH 41Similar
Q4 10:58
4TH & 3
OPP 41
-5
76.0%
Cincinnati Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the M-OH 46Similar
Q4 8:19
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
73.9%
Mason Fletcher punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Gage Larvadain at the M-OH 10Similar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+15
71.0%
GABBERT, Brett pass deep to the left incomplete intended for MARSHALL, Miles thrown to the MIA40. PENALTY CIN Pass Interference on YOUNG, Jordan enforced 15 yards to the MIA25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 20FG
9 plays · 88 yds · 3:0929% → 50%
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+38
70.8%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Miles Marshall for 38 yds to the CIN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
65.3%
Miami (OH) Penalty, False Start (Kolby Borders) to the CIN 42Similar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 15
OPP 42
0
67.8%
Gage Larvadain run for no gain to the CIN 42Similar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 15
OPP 42
+15
68.4%
GABBERT, Brett pass deep to the right incomplete intended for LARVADAIN, Gage thrown to the CIN14. PENALTY CIN Pass Interference on HARRIS, Justin enforced 15 yards to the CIN27 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+23
63.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 23 yds to the CIN 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
63.1%
Kevin Davis run for 2 yds to the CIN 2Similar
Q4 8:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
63.1%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
65.1%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
50.5%
Graham Nicholson 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21MISSED FG
16 plays · 57 yds · 5:0160% → 61%
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
60.2%
Emory Jones run for 1 yd to the CIN 26Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
60.0%
Emory Jones run for 6 yds to the CIN 32Similar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-6
59.6%
Emory Jones sacked by Brian Ugwu for a loss of 6 yards to the CIN 26Similar
Q4 2:44
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+27
53.2%
Chamon Metayer run for 27 yds to the M-OH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
64.9%
Ryan Montgomery run for 3 yds to the M-OH 44Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+15
64.8%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 15 yds to the M-OH 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
66.5%
Ryan Montgomery run for 5 yds to the M-OH 24Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+6
66.7%
Ryan Montgomery run for 6 yds to the M-OH 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
69.1%
Ryan Montgomery run for 3 yds to the M-OH 15Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 7
OPP 15
0
69.1%
Emory Jones run for no gain to the M-OH 15Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 7
OPP 15
-3
66.0%
Emory Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the M-OH 18Similar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+35
61.4%
Carter Brown 35 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-61.4
TD · Q3 3:01
Kevin Davis run for 1 yd for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)
-24.3
TD · Q4 13:52
Emory Jones 17 Yd Run (Emory Jones Pass to Chamon Metayer for Two-Point Conversion)
+24
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com