2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · Milan Puskar Stadium
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Win probability · WVU
modelWVU aheadDUQ aheadconfidence bandkey playWVU scoreDUQ score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:50 · CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 3 yds to the WVU 48 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:40: Jaylen Anderson run for 8 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK) — WVU win probability +0.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 8:14: Brian Bruzdewicz 39 yd FG GOOD — DUQ win probability +0.5 pts (now 4%) (top driver: DUQ has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:49: Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 70 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK) — WVU win probability +0.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:57: Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 46 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK) — WVU win probability +0.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:39: Garrett Greene pass complete to Preston Fox for 22 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK) — WVU win probability +1.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WVU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7DUQ made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 14:05DUQ 4th & 8 at DUQ 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.6%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.7%average punt
- Q1 10:40WVU 4th & 7 at WVU 39, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snapGo for it97.9%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.9%average punt
- Q1 9:11DUQ 4th & 10 at DUQ 9, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it2.2%−0.127% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%average punt
- Q2 13:00DUQ 4th & 10 at DUQ 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snapGo for it3.2%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.3%average punt
- Q2 11:38WVU 4th & 8 at DUQ 41, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.4%34% to convertField goal96.3%−0.132% to makePunt96.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 8:14DUQ 4th & 21 at WVU 21, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.0% before the snapGo for it3.7%−0.48% to convertField goalTheir call4.1%74% to makePunt3.3%−0.9average punt
- Q2 5:11DUQ 4th & 11 at DUQ 24, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snapGo for it3.6%−0.225% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.8%average punt
- Q2 2:50DUQ 4th & 17 at DUQ 18, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.1%−0.513% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%average punt
- Q2 2:50WVU 4th & 2 at WVU 45, up 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt97.1%−0.2average punt
- Q3 12:32WVU 4th & 1 at DUQ 40, up 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.2%70% to convertField goal98.9%−0.334% to makePunt98.9%−0.3average punt
- Q3 10:03DUQ 4th & 10 at WVU 36, down 25Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%−<0.130% to convertField goal0.7%42% to makePunt0.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 7:40DUQ 4th & 8 at DUQ 22, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q4 13:38WVU 4th & 8 at DUQ 48, up 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q4 9:50WVU 4th & 1 at DUQ 1, up 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.6%59% to convertField goal99.4%−0.294% to makePunt98.9%−0.7average punt
- Q4 7:41DUQ 4th & 3 at DUQ 32, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 7:41WVU 4th & 4 at DUQ 34, up 32Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%48% to convertField goal99.9%−0.147% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WVU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8DUQ made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 12:01DUQ Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call2.0%97% to makeGo for two2.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:49WVU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.4%97% to makeGo for two97.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:40WVU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.7%97% to makeGo for two96.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:49WVU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.2%97% to makeGo for two96.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:57WVU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:39WVU Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:40WVU Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:02DUQ Touchdown, down 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.4%97% to makeGo for two0.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:50WVU Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:08WVU Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartDUQDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:551% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 2TD5 plays · 46 yds · 1:291% → 1%
WVUDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 14 yds · 1:2199% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:292% → 2%
Q1 10:40
3RD & 13
OWN 6
+3
98.5%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Jr. Darryl Powell for 3 yds to the DUQ 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 5TD8 plays · 46 yds · 3:2298% → 98%
Q1 5:49
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+14
98.2%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 14 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 6INT7 plays · 27 yds · 3:082% → 3%
WVUDrive 7TD9 plays · 94 yds · 3:0198% → 98%
Q1 2:41
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+15
97.6%
Duquesne Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Jayden Johnson) to the WVU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+39
97.6%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 39 yds to the DUQ 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+10
97.4%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Kole Taylor for 10 yds to the DUQ 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+16
97.4%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Kole Taylor for 16 yds to the DUQ 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:402% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 9DOWNS4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2298% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 10FG10 plays · 38 yds · 3:243% → 4%
Q2 11:38
3RD & 12
OWN 39
+34
97.3%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Jr. Darryl Powell for 34 yds to the WVU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+22
97.0%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Keshawn Brown for 22 yds to the WVU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-15
96.5%
PERRANTES, Darius pass short up the middle complete for 5 yards to AFFUL, Tedy caught at the WVU0 and advanced to the WVU0, TOUCHDOWN DUQ, score nullified by penalty, clock 09:15 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY DUQ Pass Interference on BROWN, Keshawn enforced 15 yards to the WVU20 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 20
-1
96.7%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Quan Easterling for a loss of 1 yard to the WVU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 11TD4 plays · 75 yds · 1:2596% → 97%
Q2 8:14
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-10
96.4%
ANDERSON, Jaylen rush to the left for a gain of 8 yards to the WVU48 (LENZ, Connor). PENALTY WVU Holding on FRAZIER, Zach enforced 10 yards from the WVU40 to the WVU30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 17
OWN 30
+70
97.3%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 70 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 12PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:383% → 3%
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
97.3%
ANDERSON, Jaylen rush to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the WVU48 (HOWARD, Ty;RAMIREZ, Carlos). PENALTY DUQ Offsides enforced 5 yards from the WVU43 to the WVU48 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 13TD4 plays · 57 yds · 1:1497% → 98%
Q2 5:11
1ST & 5
OWN 48
+3
97.3%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Cortez Braham for 3 yds to the DUQ 49Similar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 2
OPP 49
-5
97.3%
GREENE, Garrett pass short to the left incomplete intended for GALLAGHER, Rodney thrown to the DUQ44. PENALTY WVU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass enforced 5 yards from the DUQ49 to the WVU46 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+8
97.3%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 8 yds to the DUQ 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
98.2%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 46 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 14PUNT4 plays · -7 yds · 1:072% → 2%
Q2 3:57
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-7
98.0%
Darius Perrantes sacked by Jared Bartlett for a loss of 7 yards to the DUQ 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 15TD7 plays · 63 yds · 2:1198% → 99%
DUQDrive 16END OF HALF4 plays · 0 yds · 0:392% → 1%
WVUDrive 17DOWNS6 plays · 34 yds · 2:2899% → 99%
DUQDrive 18DOWNS6 plays · 23 yds · 2:291% → 1%
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+24
99.3%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Keshawn Brown for 24 yds to the WVU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-11
99.2%
Darius Perrantes sacked by Hershey McLaurin and Tomiwa Durojaiye for a loss of 11 yards to the WVU 47Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 21
OPP 47
+11
99.2%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Tedy Afful for 11 yds to the WVU 36Similar
Q3 10:03
4TH & 10
OPP 36
-1
99.2%
Darius Perrantes sacked by Tomiwa Durojaiye for a loss of 1 yard to the WVU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 19FUMBLE5 plays · 63 yds · 1:25100% → 100%
Q3 8:38
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+12
99.6%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Rodney Gallagher for 12 yds Rodney Gallagher fumbled, recovered by DUQSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:581% → 1%
WVUDrive 21TD8 plays · 67 yds · 3:00100% → 100%
Q3 7:40
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-5
99.5%
QB Keeper MARCHIOL, Nicco rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the DUQ40 (EPPS, Antonio;CMIELEWSKI, Steve). PENALTY Before the snap, WVU Illegal Shift enforced 5 yards from the DUQ43 to the DUQ48. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 15
OPP 48
+29
99.5%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Kole Taylor for 29 yds to the DUQ 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 22TD7 plays · 75 yds · 3:380% → 1%
Q3 4:40
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
99.8%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Joey Isabella for 8 yds to the DUQ 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+45
99.8%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Tedy Afful for 45 yds to the WVU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
99.5%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Tedy Afful for 16 yds for a TD (Brian Bruzdewicz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 23PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 2:24100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 24INT2 plays · 5 yds · 0:550% → 0%
WVUDrive 25TD6 plays · 20 yds · 2:53100% → 100%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
99.8%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Jahiem White for 6 yds to the DUQ 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 26PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 2:090% → 0%
Q4 9:50
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+11
100.0%
Matthew Robinson pass complete to Edward Robinson for 11 yds to the DUQ 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 27TD12 plays · 67 yds · 5:33100% → 100%
Q4 7:41
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+7
99.9%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to C.J. Cole for 7 yds to the DUQ 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
99.9%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for no gain to the DUQ 37Similar
Q4 7:41
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+10
99.9%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to C.J. Cole for 10 yds to the DUQ 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 28END OF GAME3 plays · 0 yds · 2:080% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:39
Garrett Greene pass complete to Preston Fox for 22 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK)
+1.2
TD · Q2 6:49
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 70 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK)
+0.9
TD · Q2 3:57
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 46 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK)
+0.9