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NICH

Nicholls 6 at TCU 41

TCU
2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadNICH aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreNICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:51 · Ray Vallee punt for 41 yds , JoJo Earle returns for 2 yds to the TCU 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 37Home team on offense+19.4Pregame prior+34.2Score differential+14.0Blowout margin+0.7Garbage-time factor+4.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:00: Chandler Morris run for 32 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +0.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:31: Gavin Lasseigne 40 yd FG GOOD — NICH win probability +0.9 pts (now 2%) (top driver: NICH has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:08: Griffin Kell 57 yd FG GOOD — TCU win probability +1.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 2:51: Gavin Lasseigne 47 yd FG GOOD — NICH win probability +1.1 pts (now 2%) (top driver: NICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:15: Chandler Morris pass complete to JoJo Earle for 4 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +1.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5NICH made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 12:17TCU 4th & 11 at TCU 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:34NICH 4th & 6 at NICH 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:58NICH 4th & 1 at NICH 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:43NICH 4th & 10 at NICH 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:12TCU 4th & 8 at NICH 45, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    98.2%−0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    98.3%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:36NICH 4th & 8 at NICH 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  7. Q1 4:20TCU 4th & 2 at TCU 41, up 7
    Close callPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:16NICH 4th & 10 at NICH 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:55NICH 4th & 15 at NICH 20, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:31NICH 4th & 20 at TCU 23, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.3
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:51NICH 4th & 3 at NICH 44, down 21
    Close callPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:42TCU 4th & 5 at TCU 22, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:51NICH 4th & 19 at TCU 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.3
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:10NICH 4th & 4 at NICH 39, down 18
    Close callPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:31TCU 4th & 19 at NICH 24, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:31NICH 4th & 14 at TCU 46, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    23% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q4 10:15TCU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 0:48TCU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TCUDrive 2DOWNS
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 7:58
3RD & 16
OWN 47
+8
98.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Trey Sanders for 8 yds to the NICH 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3PUNT
1 play · 22 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 12:17
4TH & 11
OWN 40
0
98.7%
Jordy Sandy punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 4TD
2 plays · 89 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 10:34
4TH & 6
OWN 30
+24
98.6%
Blake Nowell 24 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Griffin Kell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 5DOWNS
2 plays · 20 yds · 2:152% → 2%
Q1 7:58
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
98.4%
Similar
Q1 5:43
4TH & 10
OWN 39
+6
98.3%
Kylan Dupre punt for 34 yds , JoJo Earle returns for 6 yds to the TCU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6DOWNS
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 6:12
4TH & 8
OPP 45
+6
98.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jack Bech for 6 yds to the NICH 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 7PUNT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 2:36
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
97.9%
Kylan Dupre punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8PUNT
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 4:20
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
98.1%
Jordy Sandy punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 2:442% → 2%
Q1 0:00
4TH & 3
OWN 30
-5
98.2%
Nicholls Penalty, false start (Maurquel Price) to the NICH 25Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 3
OWN 30
-5
98.2%
Nicholls Penalty, false start (Maurquel Price) to the NICH 25Similar
Q2 12:16
4TH & 10
OWN 47
+30
98.0%
Kylan Dupre punt for 38 yds , JoJo Earle returns for 30 yds to the TCU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10TD
1 play · 79 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 1:00
3RD & 12
OPP 32
+32
98.4%
Chandler Morris run for 32 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:222% → 2%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
98.1%
Pat McQuaide pass complete to Terry Matthews for 8 yds to the NICH 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 45
0
98.1%
Pat McQuaide pass complete to Terry MatthewsSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+2
98.1%
Collin Guggenheim run for 2 yds to the NICH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
98.1%
Pat McQuaide pass complete to Neno Lemay for 5 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 48
-5
98.1%
Nicholls Penalty, false start (Reed Lambert) to the NICH 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
98.1%
pass incomplete to Tyren MontgomerySimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
98.1%
Pat McQuaide pass complete to Terry Matthews for 8 yds to the NICH 45Similar
Q2 12:38
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
98.0%
pass incomplete to Neno LemaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13TD
1 play · 55 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
98.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 14 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 14PUNT
1 play · -5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 8:55
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
98.8%
Kylan Dupre punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15FUMBLE
1 play · 49 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 5:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-6
99.0%
Josh Hoover run for a loss of 6 yards to the NICH 10 Josh Hoover fumbled, recovered by NICH Kershawn FisherSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 16TD
4 plays · 90 yds · 0:262% → 2%
Q2 0:57
2ND & 9
OPP 12
-15
98.4%
Pat McQuaide pass complete to Quincy Brown Nicholls Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Tyren Montgomery) to the TCU 27Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 24
OPP 27
0
98.6%
Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 24
OPP 27
+4
98.7%
Terry Matthews run for 4 yds to the TCU 23Similar
Q2 0:31
4TH & 20
OPP 23
+40
97.8%
Gavin Lasseigne 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17FG
3 plays · 31 yds · 0:0098% → 99%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
98.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jared Wiley for 6 yds to the NICH 39Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+57
99.0%
Griffin Kell 57 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 18PUNT
2 plays · 20 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 11:51
4TH & 3
OWN 44
+2
98.7%
Ray Vallee punt for 41 yds , JoJo Earle returns for 2 yds to the TCU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19PUNT
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 2:42
4TH & 5
OWN 22
+6
98.9%
Jordy Sandy punt for 41 yds , Jaylon Spears returns for 6 yds to the TCU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 20FG
1 play · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 2:51
4TH & 19
OPP 30
+47
97.8%
Gavin Lasseigne 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 13:102% → 2%
Q4 13:10
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
98.0%
Ray Vallee punt for 31 ydsSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
98.2%
Collin Guggenheim run for 5 yds to the NICH 38Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+2
98.3%
Collin Guggenheim run for 2 yds to the NICH 40Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 40
-1
98.4%
Pat McQuaide pass complete to Marquese Albert for a loss of 1 yard to the NICH 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 23TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 10:15100% → 100%
Q4 10:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to JoJo Earle for 4 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
99.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Emani Bailey for 16 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
99.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Warren Thompson for 16 yds to the NICH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
99.9%
TCU Penalty, false start (Brandon Coleman) to the NICH 43Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+5
99.9%
Emani Bailey run for 5 yds to the NICH 38Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+19
99.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to JoJo Earle for 19 yds to the NICH 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
99.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Warren Thompson for 8 yds to the NICH 11Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+4
99.9%
Emani Bailey run for 4 yds to the NICH 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
99.9%
Emani Bailey run for 3 yds to the NICH 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 24INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 9:180% → 0%
Q4 9:18
3RD & 9
OWN 13
0
99.7%
Pat McQuaide pass interceptedSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
99.8%
Pat McQuaide pass incomplete to Lee Negrotto, broken up by Shad Banks Jr.Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+1
99.8%
Collin Guggenheim run for 1 yd to the NICH 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 25TD
8 plays · 26 yds · 7:30100% → 100%
Q4 7:30
3RD & 5
OPP 10
-11
99.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jordyn Bailey for 4 yds TCU Penalty, personal foul (Cordale Russell) to the NICH 21Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 16
OPP 21
+2
99.8%
Chandler Morris run for 2 yds to the NICH 19Similar
Q4 7:30
4TH & 14
OPP 19
-5
99.8%
TCU Penalty, false start (Jasper Lott) to the NICH 24Similar
Q4 6:31
4TH & 19
OPP 24
+42
99.9%
Griffin Kell 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+2
100.0%
Trey Sanders run for 2 yds to the NICH 18Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+3
100.0%
Trey Sanders run for 3 yds to the NICH 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
100.0%
Trey Sanders run for 2 yds to the NICH 13Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+3
100.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jared Wiley for 3 yds to the NICH 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 26FUMBLE
3 plays · 0 yds · 6:160% → 0%
Q4 6:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
100.0%
Jaylon Spears run for 6 yds to the NICH 26 Jaylon Spears fumbled, recovered by TCU Chace BiddleSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
pass incomplete to Terry MatthewsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 27INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 5:45100% → 100%
Q4 5:45
2ND & 9
OPP 25
0
99.9%
Josh Hoover pass interceptedSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
100.0%
Corey Wren run for 1 yd to the NICH 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 28DOWNS
9 plays · 39 yds · 1:310% → 0%
Q4 1:31
4TH & 14
OPP 46
-6
100.0%
Pat McQuaide sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the NICH 48Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
100.0%
Pat McQuaide pass complete to Neno Lemay for a loss of 1 yard to the NICH 8Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 8
+10
100.0%
Pat McQuaide pass complete to Tyren Montgomery for 10 yds to the NICH 18Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+2
100.0%
Collin Guggenheim run for 2 yds to the NICH 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
100.0%
Pat McQuaide pass complete to Nathan Hebb for 4 yds to the NICH 24Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+34
100.0%
Pat McQuaide pass complete to Neno Lemay for 34 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
100.0%
Collin Guggenheim run for 2 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
100.0%
pass incomplete to Quincy BrownSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 40
-6
100.0%
Pat McQuaide sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the TCU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 29TD
3 plays · 48 yds · 0:48100% → 100%
Q4 0:48
2ND & 12
OPP 34
+34
100.0%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordyn Bailey for 34 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
100.0%
Josh Hoover pass complete to D'Andre Rogers for 16 yds to the NICH 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
100.0%
Corey Wren run for a loss of 2 yards to the NICH 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 30Uncategorized
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
100.0%
Jake Dalmado run for 5 yds to the NICH 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:15
Chandler Morris pass complete to JoJo Earle for 4 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)
+1.3
FG · Q2 0:08
Griffin Kell 57 yd FG GOOD
+1.1
FG · Q3 2:51
Gavin Lasseigne 47 yd FG GOOD
-1.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com