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HOU

Houston 41 at Rice 43

RICE
2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · Rice Stadium
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Win probability · RICE
modelRICE aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playRICE scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q1Q2Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+7.8RICE 44.7%Daelen Alexander run for 1 yd for a TD(Tim Horn KICK)AWAY 0 - HOME 14 · Q1 4:17
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:17 · Daelen Alexander run for 1 yd for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q1Q2Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 33Home team on offense+4.6Pregame prior−15.8Score differential+2.0Garbage-time factor+1.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Time remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:00: JT Daniels pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 32 yds for a TD — RICE win probability +8.7 pts (now 55%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:42: Donovan Smith pass complete to Matthew Golden for 10 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK) — HOU win probability +12.6 pts (now 22%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:05: Donovan Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Martin KICK) — HOU win probability +10.8 pts (now 15%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:46: Stacy Sneed run for 14 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK) — HOU win probability +14.2 pts (now 22%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:15: Donovan Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Martin KICK) — HOU win probability +43.8 pts (now 61%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
RICE made the numbers' call on 3 of 6HOU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 4:17RICE 4th & 1 at HOU 1, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    40.6%−0.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    38.1%−3.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:50HOU 4th & 10 at HOU 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:50HOU 4th & 10 at HOU 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:46HOU 4th & 24 at HOU 26, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−2.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:46HOU 4th & 24 at HOU 26, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−2.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:27HOU 4th & 2 at RICE 44, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    11.4%−5.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    13.9%−2.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:23HOU 4th & 8 at RICE 8, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.2%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    7.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−5.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:32RICE 4th & 3 at RICE 36, up 21
    Close callPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:32RICE 4th & 3 at RICE 36, up 21
    Close callPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:17HOU 4th & 5 at RICE 33, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    4.1%−0.4
    49% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:20RICE 4th & 9 at RICE 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.3%−1.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:30HOU 4th & 24 at RICE 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−1.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:50RICE 4th & 2 at RICE 44, up 14
    Close callPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:50HOU 4th & 6 at HOU 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.3%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:49RICE 4th & 3 at RICE 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RICE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4HOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 10:11RICE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:17RICE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:00RICE Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:32RICE Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:42HOU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:05HOU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:46HOU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.1%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.8%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:15HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.4%−3.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
RICEDrive 1TD
13 plays · 78 yds · 4:4431% → 36%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
31.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kobie Campbell for 8 yds to the RICE 30Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+4
31.3%
Juma Otoviano run for 4 yds to the RICE 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
31.3%
Juma Otoviano run for 4 yds to the RICE 38Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 38
0
31.3%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Braylen WalkerSimilar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+15
31.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Rawson MacNeill for 15 yds to the HOU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
31.3%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Luke McCaffreySimilar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
31.3%
Juma Otoviano run for no gain to the HOU 47Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+35
31.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Juma Otoviano for 35 yds to the HOU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
33.6%
Juma Otoviano run for 2 yds to the HOU 10Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
35.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 10 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 2INT
13 plays · 11 yds · 10:1135% → 43%
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
34.8%
Houston Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the HOU 22Similar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 13
OWN 22
+10
34.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 10 yds to the HOU 32Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
34.5%
Stacy Sneed run for 4 yds to the HOU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
36.0%
Donovan Smith pass interceptedSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
36.0%
Donovan Smith pass interceptedSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
42.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kobie Campbell for 8 yds to the RICE 30Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+4
43.6%
Juma Otoviano run for 4 yds to the RICE 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
43.1%
Juma Otoviano run for 4 yds to the RICE 38Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 38
0
44.0%
pass incomplete to Braylen WalkerSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+15
43.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Jaggar Hebeisen for 15 yds to the HOU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
44.5%
pass incomplete to Luke McCaffreySimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
44.3%
Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+35
43.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Juma Otoviano for 35 yds to the HOU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 3TD
7 plays · 39 yds · 4:0837% → 45%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
37.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Dean Connors for no gain to the HOU 39Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+18
36.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Braylen Walker for 18 yds to the HOU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
37.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Dean Connors for 13 yds to the HOU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
37.1%
Juma Otoviano run for 4 yds to the HOU 4Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
37.1%
Micah Barnett run for 2 yds to the HOU 2Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
36.9%
Daelen Alexander run for 1 yd to the HOU 1Similar
Q1 4:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
44.7%
Daelen Alexander run for 1 yd for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 4:1757% → 53%
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.2%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Stephon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
43.4%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Stephon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
43.5%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Samuel BrownSimilar
Q1 3:50
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
44.0%
Laine Wilkins punt for 44 yds , Sean Fresch returns for no gain to the RICE 31Similar
Q1 3:50
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
44.0%
Laine Wilkins punt for 44 yds , Sean Fresch returns for no gain to the RICE 31Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 13
OWN 22
+10
48.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 10 yds to the HOU 32Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
47.2%
Stacy Sneed run for 4 yds to the HOU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 5TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 3:5045% → 59%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+37
45.0%
Dean Connors run for 37 yds to the HOU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
45.9%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Jack BradleySimilar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+32
54.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 32 yds for a TDSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
60.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Dean ConnorsSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+18
60.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Braylen Walker for 18 yds to the HOU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
60.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Dean Connors for 13 yds to the HOU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
60.5%
Juma Otoviano run for 4 yds to the HOU 4Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
60.0%
Micah Barnett run for 2 yds to the HOU 2Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
59.2%
Daelen Alexander run for 1 yd to the HOU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 11 yds · 3:0747% → 40%
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
53.5%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Matthew GoldenSimilar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+6
53.7%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 6 yds to the HOU 21Similar
Q1 2:53
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+4
53.7%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 4 yds to the HOU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
53.4%
Stacy Sneed run for 8 yds to the HOU 33Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
52.4%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 7 yds to the HOU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
52.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 6 yds to the HOU 34Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 16
OWN 34
0
53.7%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Samuel BrownSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 16
OWN 34
-8
59.8%
Donovan Smith sacked by Coleman Coco for a loss of 8 yards to the HOU 26Similar
Q2 14:46
4TH & 24
OWN 26
0
60.4%
Laine Wilkins punt for 66 ydsSimilar
Q2 14:46
4TH & 24
OWN 26
0
60.4%
Laine Wilkins punt for 66 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 7TD
17 plays · 92 yds · 6:2859% → 75%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.3%
pass incomplete to Stephon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
59.6%
pass incomplete to Stephon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
59.7%
pass incomplete to Samuel BrownSimilar
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
58.6%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Luke McCaffreySimilar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+17
58.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to JoVoni Johnson-McCray for 17 yds to the RICE 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.5%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Luke McCaffreySimilar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
59.4%
Kobie Campbell run for 2 yds to the RICE 23Similar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+17
58.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 17 yds to the RICE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
61.0%
PENALTY HOU Pass Interference (Haulcy,A.J.) 15 yards from Rice40 to HOU45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
61.6%
Dean Connors run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 15
50
+23
60.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Boden Groen for 23 yds to the HOU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+16
61.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kobie Campbell for 16 yds to the HOU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
61.4%
Kobie Campbell run for 6 yds to the HOU 17Similar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 16
OPP 17
+2
61.1%
Juma Otoviano run for 2 yds to the HOU 15Similar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 14
OPP 15
+15
75.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Braylen Walker for 15 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8TD
16 plays · 74 yds · 12:1830% → 22%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+37
69.8%
Dean Connors run for 37 yds to the HOU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
70.4%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Jack Bradley, broken up by Nelson CeaserSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+22
83.1%
Parker Jenkins run for 22 yds to the HOU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
81.9%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Matthew GoldenSimilar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
82.1%
Donovan Smith run for 5 yds to the RICE 47Similar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+3
81.0%
Donovan Smith run for 3 yds to the RICE 44Similar
Q2 8:27
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+14
80.7%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 14 yds to the RICE 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
80.7%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Matthew GoldenSimilar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
80.7%
Parker Jenkins run for no gain to the RICE 30Similar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+3
81.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 3 yds to the RICE 27Similar
Q2 8:27
4TH & 7
OPP 27
+12
80.9%
PENALTY Rice Pass Interference (Fresch,Sean) 12 yards from Rice27 to Rice15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
90.6%
Stacy Sneed run for 2 yds to the RICE 13Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+3
90.6%
Stacy Sneed run for 3 yds to the RICE 10Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+10
78.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Matthew Golden for 10 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 9INT
13 plays · 63 yds · 2:2585% → 88%
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
84.6%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Quinton JacksonSimilar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-8
84.3%
JT Daniels sacked by Nelson Ceaser for a loss of 8 yards to the RICE 20Similar
Q2 2:21
3RD & 18
OWN 20
+23
85.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to JoVoni Johnson-McCray for 23 yds to the RICE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
86.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Dean Connors for 10 yds to the HOU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
86.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Boden Groen for 6 yds to the HOU 41Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+18
85.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Braylen Walker for 18 yds to the HOU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
86.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Dean Connors for 14 yds to the HOU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
88.3%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Quinton JacksonSimilar
Q2 0:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
88.3%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Luke McCaffreySimilar
Q2 0:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
87.9%
JT Daniels pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10END OF HALF
9 plays · -2 yds · 15:0033% → 11%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
67.5%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Matthew Golden, broken up by Sean FreschSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+6
67.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 6 yds to the HOU 21Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+4
67.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 4 yds to the HOU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
66.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 7 yds to the HOU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-6
66.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stacy Sneed for a loss of 6 yards to the HOU 34Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 16
OWN 34
0
68.7%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Samuel Brown, broken up by Tre'shon DevonesSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 16
OWN 34
-8
68.8%
Donovan Smith sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the HOU 26Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
89.5%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the HOU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11DOWNS
16 plays · 77 yds · 7:3216% → 8%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
84.5%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 7 yds to the HOU 22Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+2
83.7%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 2 yds to the HOU 24Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+3
83.8%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 3 yds to the HOU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
84.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Tony Mathis Jr. for 5 yds to the HOU 32Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+22
83.6%
Donovan Smith run for 22 yds to the RICE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
83.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 14 yds to the RICE 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
82.1%
Parker Jenkins run for 2 yds to the RICE 30Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+10
81.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Matthew Golden for 10 yds to the RICE 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
81.7%
Parker Jenkins run for 3 yds to the RICE 17Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 17
-1
81.9%
Donovan Smith sacked by Demone Green for a loss of 1 yard to the RICE 18Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+8
83.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joshua Cobbs for 8 yds to the RICE 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
81.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Matthew Golden for 1 yd to the RICE 11Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
82.2%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Joseph Manjack IVSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+3
83.3%
Donovan Smith run for 3 yds to the RICE 8Similar
Q3 7:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
0
91.6%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Matthew GoldenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 38 yds · 3:5192% → 95%
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
92.0%
Juma Otoviano run for 1 yd to the RICE 9Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 9
OWN 9
0
91.9%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Braylen WalkerSimilar
Q3 7:23
3RD & 9
OWN 9
+20
91.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Dean Connors for 20 yds to the RICE 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
92.3%
Dean Connors run for 2 yds to the RICE 31Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+5
92.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Jack Bradley for 5 yds to the RICE 36Similar
Q3 7:23
3RD & 3
OWN 36
0
92.4%
Juma Otoviano run for no gain to the RICE 36Similar
Q3 3:32
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
94.7%
Conor Hunt punt for 64 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q3 3:32
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
94.7%
Conor Hunt punt for 64 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13DOWNS
5 plays · 57 yds · 1:155% → 5%
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+52
94.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 52 yds to the RICE 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
94.5%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Stephon JohnsonSimilar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+5
94.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 5 yds to the RICE 33Similar
Q3 3:32
3RD & 5
OPP 33
0
94.3%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Matthew GoldenSimilar
Q3 2:17
4TH & 5
OPP 33
0
95.3%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Joshua CobbsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 14FUMBLE
4 plays · 31 yds · 1:4896% → 97%
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
95.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 6 yds to the RICE 39Similar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+7
95.8%
Dean Connors run for 7 yds to the RICE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
95.9%
Dean Connors run for no gain to the RICE 46Similar
Q3 0:29
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+18
97.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Braylen Walker for 18 yds Braylen Walker fumbled, recovered by HOU Malik RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 1:243% → 15%
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
96.7%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Tony Mathis Jr. for 20 yds to the RICE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
97.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 16 yds to the RICE 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+23
96.6%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 23 yds to the RICE 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
96.2%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 4 yds to the RICE 1Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
96.2%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Matthew GoldenSimilar
Q4 14:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.4%
Donovan Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 2:4591% → 92%
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
90.9%
PENALTY Rice Illegal Block in Back (Groen,Boden) 12 yards from Rice25 to Rice13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 22
OWN 13
-8
90.8%
JT Daniels sacked by Nelson Ceaser for a loss of 8 yards to the RICE 5Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 30
OWN 5
+5
90.6%
Dean Connors run for 5 yds to the RICE 10Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 25
OWN 10
+16
90.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Dean Connors for 16 yds to the RICE 26Similar
Q4 11:20
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+12
92.0%
Conor Hunt punt for 33 yds , Malik Fleming returns for 12 yds to the RICE 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:5012% → 9%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
87.8%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 12 yds to the RICE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
87.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Tony Mathis Jr. for 3 yds to the RICE 38Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 13
OPP 38
0
87.9%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Matthew GoldenSimilar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 13
OPP 38
-11
88.3%
Donovan Smith sacked by Coleman Coco for a loss of 11 yards to the RICE 49Similar
Q4 9:30
4TH & 24
OPP 49
0
90.8%
Laine Wilkins punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 3:4094% → 96%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
94.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 9 yds to the RICE 29Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 1
OWN 29
0
94.3%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Luke McCaffreySimilar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+7
94.1%
Daelen Alexander run for 7 yds to the RICE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
94.3%
Juma Otoviano run for 1 yd to the RICE 35Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+9
94.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Dean Connors for 9 yds to the RICE 44Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
94.4%
Dean Connors run for no gain to the RICE 44Similar
Q4 5:50
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+12
95.9%
Conor Hunt punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the HOU 29 , Malik Fleming returns for 12 yds to the HOU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 2:048% → 22%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
92.3%
Donovan Smith run for 14 yds to the HOU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
91.9%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Stephon JohnsonSimilar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
92.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 4 yds to the HOU 47Similar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
91.8%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Joseph Manjack IVSimilar
Q4 5:50
4TH & 6
OWN 47
+39
92.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Matthew Golden for 39 yds to the RICE 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
78.0%
Stacy Sneed run for 14 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:4991% → 91%
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
91.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 7 yds to the RICE 15Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 3
OWN 15
0
91.3%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to JoVoni Johnson-McCraySimilar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 3
OWN 15
0
90.8%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to JoVoni Johnson-McCraySimilar
Q4 2:49
4TH & 3
OWN 15
0
90.8%
Conor Hunt punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the RICE 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21TD
9 plays · 40 yds · 2:3419% → 61%
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
81.4%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 6 yds to the RICE 34Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+3
78.1%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 3 yds to the RICE 31Similar
Q4 2:49
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+2
80.1%
Stacy Sneed run for 2 yds to the RICE 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+18
78.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 18 yds to the RICE 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
78.1%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Samuel BrownSimilar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+8
81.3%
Donovan Smith run for 8 yds to the RICE 3Similar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+2
82.8%
Donovan Smith run for 2 yds to the RICE 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
39.0%
Donovan Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 22END OF GAME
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
59.1%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the RICE 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 24TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
65.6%
PENALTY HOU Pass Interference (Haulcy,A.J.) 1 yard from HOU03 to HOU02. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:15
Donovan Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)
-43.8
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+34.4
TD · Q4 3:46
Stacy Sneed run for 14 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)
-14.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com