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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreSMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:57 · Josh Plaster punt for 46 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:33: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Blake Smith for 2 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK) — OU win probability +3.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:09: Stone Eby 2 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Preston Stone Pass to Jake Bailey for Two-Point Conversion) — SMU win probability +19.2 pts (now 31%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q4 9:01: Jalil Farooq 21 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Zach Schmit Kick) — OU win probability +18.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:00: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tawee Walker for 11 yds to the OU 36 for a 1ST down — OU win probability +2.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:40: Marcus Major 27 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Zach Schmit Kick) — OU win probability +5.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5SMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
- Q1 13:09OU 4th & 10 at OU 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 85.4% before the snapGo for it85.3%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.4%average punt
- Q1 8:43SMU 4th & 8 at OU 10, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.8% before the snapGo for it14.8%−0.128% to convertField goalTheir call14.8%88% to makePunt14.3%−0.5average punt
- Q1 4:18SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 41, down 4Close callPunted · 16.4% before the snapGo for it16.6%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.5%−0.1average punt
- Q1 1:57OU 4th & 10 at OU 41, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snapGo for it82.1%−0.429% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.5%average punt
- Q2 13:26SMU 4th & 6 at OU 42, down 4Close callPunted · 18.5% before the snapGo for it18.7%40% to convertField goal18.3%−0.430% to makePuntTheir call18.6%−0.2average punt
- Q2 5:23SMU 4th & 3 at OU 40, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call14.8%52% to convertField goal14.1%−0.734% to makePunt14.1%−0.7average punt
- Q2 0:00SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 34, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt12.6%−0.5average punt
- Q2 3:33OU 4th & 4 at OU 46, up 11Close callPunted · 86.3% before the snapGo for it86.4%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.3%−0.2average punt
- Q2 0:13SMU 4th & 9 at OU 32, down 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.5% before the snapGo for it13.1%−0.732% to convertField goalTheir call13.8%51% to makePunt12.6%−1.1average punt
- Q3 13:30SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 25, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snapGo for it12.0%−0.828% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.8%average punt
- Q3 9:48OU 4th & 6 at SMU 48, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.5% before the snapGo for it87.7%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.8%average punt
- Q3 4:05OU 4th & 1 at SMU 19, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call88.8%71% to convertField goal87.7%−1.177% to makePunt84.3%−4.5average punt
- Q4 15:00SMU 4th & 3 at OU 48, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call12.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt12.1%−0.6average punt
- Q4 7:31SMU 4th & 5 at SMU 30, down 10Close callWent for it · 7.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.8%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt7.9%average punt
- Q4 5:15SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 17, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.9%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4SMU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q1 10:39OU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.3%97% to makeGo for two85.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:33OU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.4%97% to makeGo for two85.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:09SMU Touchdown, down 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick23.3%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call22.9%−0.445% to convert
- Q4 9:01OU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.0%97% to makeGo for two90.7%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 6:40OU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.0%97% to makeGo for two96.8%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOUDrive 1PUNT3 plays · 12 yds · 13:0989% → 85%
SMUDrive 2PUNT3 plays · 14 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
OUDrive 3TD2 plays · 38 yds · 1:5689% → 90%
SMUDrive 4FG2 plays · 65 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 5PUNT2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 6:40
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
87.7%
Josh Plaster punt for 40 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for no gain to the SMU 34 Roderick Daniels Jr. fumbled, recovered by SMU Roderick Daniels Jr. , return for no gain to the SMU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6PUNT3 plays · 7 yds · 1:4612% → 13%
OUDrive 7PUNT1 play · 21 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8PUNT9 plays · 37 yds · 3:3114% → 15%
Q1 1:57
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+4
86.4%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jake Bailey for 4 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
86.6%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jake Bailey for 15 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+8
86.2%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jake Bailey for 8 yds to the SMU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 9TD13 plays · 94 yds · 11:2686% → 90%
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
86.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 12 yds to the SMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
89.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Blake Smith for 2 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
89.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 12 yds to the OU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10DOWNS9 plays · 35 yds · 5:2312% → 12%
Q2 5:23
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
87.8%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to RJ Maryland, broken up by Jaren KanakSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
88.7%
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+19
89.0%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 19 yds to the OU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
87.4%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to LJ Johnson Jr., broken up by Jaren KanakSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 3:3389% → 90%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12MISSED FG11 plays · 56 yds · 0:1312% → 13%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+20
88.7%
Preston Stone pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 20 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
88.1%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 4 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+4
87.6%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 4 yds to the OU 49Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+13
87.6%
Preston Stone pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 13 yds to the OU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+1
86.7%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 1 yd to the OU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 13END OF HALF2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
SMUDrive 14PUNT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q3 13:30
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+54
89.5%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 44 yds Oklahoma Penalty, Offensive holding (Peyton Bowen) to the OU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 15PUNT1 play · 31 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16FUMBLE1 play · 24 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q3 8:09
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+23
87.5%
Jaylan Knighton run for 23 yds to the OU 38 Jaylan Knighton fumbled, recovered by OU Danny StutsmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 17DOWNS4 plays · 43 yds · 4:0590% → 91%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
91.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tawee Walker for 3 yds to the OU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18TD8 plays · 81 yds · 2:5111% → 31%
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 48
+15
88.9%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for a 1ST down Oklahoma Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jaren Kanak) to the OU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+8
87.8%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to RJ Maryland, broken up by Peyton Bowen for a 1ST down Oklahoma Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Peyton Bowen) to the OU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
68.6%
Stone Eby 2 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Preston Stone Pass to Jake Bailey for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19TD3 plays · 75 yds · 9:0192% → 95%
SMUDrive 20DOWNS2 plays · 5 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 7:31
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
92.7%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Jordan Kerley, broken up by Peyton BowenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21TD1 play · 30 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22INT13 plays · 65 yds · 3:352% → 2%
Q4 5:15
4TH & 1
OWN 17
+6
98.0%
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 6 yds to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+17
98.0%
Preston Stone pass complete to Tyler Lavine for 2 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST down Oklahoma Penalty, personal foul (Adepoju Adebawore) to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+15
97.9%
Oklahoma Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Ethan Downs) to the OU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
97.8%
Preston Stone pass complete to Velton Gardner for 7 yds to the OU 32Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+5
97.4%
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 5 yds to the OU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:09
Stone Eby 2 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Preston Stone Pass to Jake Bailey for Two-Point Conversion)
-19.2
TD · Q4 9:01
Jalil Farooq 21 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Zach Schmit Kick)
+18
TD · Q4 6:40
Marcus Major 27 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Zach Schmit Kick)
+5