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TROY

Troy 13 at Kansas State 42

KSU
2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
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Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playKSU scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:54 · Robert Cole punt for 39 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 12Pregame prior+32.5Home team on offense+0.8Score differential+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:16: Phillip Brooks run for 2 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK) — KSU win probability +3.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:52: Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 21 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +8.9 pts (now 24%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:10: Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 39 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK) — KSU win probability +8.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:47: Will Howard run for 2 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK) — KSU win probability +7.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:48: Will Howard pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK) — KSU win probability +3.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 5TROY made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 9:54TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:45KSU 4th & 3 at KSU 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:41TROY 4th & 1 at KSU 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    16.7%−0.7
    30% to make
    Punt
    16.9%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 3:46TROY 4th & 6 at KSU 7, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    10.6%−2.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:29KSU 4th & 2 at KSU 33, up 11
    Close callPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:55TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 34, down 11
    Close callPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:32KSU 4th & 8 at TROY 43, up 11
    Close callPunted · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    86.0%−0.6
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:00TROY 4th & 9 at TROY 6, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:42KSU 4th & 9 at TROY 44, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    86.3%−0.9
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:04TROY 4th & 15 at TROY 5, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−2.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:19TROY 4th & 16 at TROY 19, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−1.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:00KSU 4th & 2 at TROY 49, up 18
    Close callPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:58TROY 4th & 6 at KSU 19, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−3.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:34TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 34, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.7%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:33TROY 4th & 6 at KSU 39, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    36% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6TROY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:35KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:16KSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:52TROY Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:10KSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:47KSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:48KSU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:50KSU Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KSUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 3:2085% → 85%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
84.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 5 yds to the KSU 34Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+22
84.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 22 yds to the TROY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
84.9%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+10
84.9%
DJ Giddens run for 10 yds to the TROY 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
84.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 5 yds to the TROY 29Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 5
OPP 29
0
84.9%
Treshaun Ward run for no gain to the TROY 29Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+20
84.9%
Treshaun Ward run for 20 yds to the TROY 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
84.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 9 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3216% → 16%
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
84.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
84.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for no gain to the TROY 35Similar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+4
84.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Marcus Rogers for 4 yds to the TROY 39Similar
Q1 9:54
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
84.5%
Robert Cole punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:0985% → 85%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
84.6%
Will Howard run for 7 yds to the KSU 37Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 3
OWN 37
0
84.7%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+4
84.6%
DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the KSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
84.7%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
84.7%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+7
84.6%
Will Howard pass complete to DJ Giddens for 7 yds to the KSU 48Similar
Q1 7:45
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
84.5%
Jack Blumer punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4DOWNS
10 plays · 36 yds · 4:0416% → 17%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
84.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the TROY 23Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
84.3%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+7
84.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 7 yds to the TROY 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
84.2%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+8
84.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 8 yds to the TROY 38Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+11
84.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Clayton Ollendieck for 11 yds to the TROY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
83.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 9
50
+4
83.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 4 yds to the KSU 46Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+4
83.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 4 yds to the KSU 42Similar
Q1 3:41
4TH & 1
OPP 42
-2
83.5%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 2 yards to the KSU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5TD
13 plays · 56 yds · 4:2585% → 88%
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
84.7%
Treshaun Ward run for 1 yd to the KSU 45Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+10
84.6%
Will Howard pass complete to RJ Garcia II for 10 yds to the TROY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
84.8%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
84.7%
Treshaun Ward run for no gain to the TROY 45Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 10
OPP 45
-5
84.4%
Kansas State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 15
50
+24
84.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 24 yds to the TROY 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
84.9%
Treshaun Ward run for 7 yds to the TROY 19Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+3
84.9%
Treshaun Ward run for 3 yds to the TROY 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
84.9%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+2
84.9%
DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the TROY 14Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+11
84.4%
DJ Giddens run for 11 yds to the TROY 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
84.7%
DJ Giddens run for 1 yd to the TROY 2Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
88.3%
Phillip Brooks run for 2 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6INT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:4813% → 13%
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
86.6%
Asa Martin run for 3 yds to the TROY 38Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
86.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:16
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+18
86.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Ethan Conner for 18 yds to the KSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
86.2%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Nate Matlack for a loss of 2 yards to the KSU 46Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+1
86.6%
Asa Martin run for 1 yd to the KSU 45Similar
Q2 11:28
3RD & 11
OPP 45
0
87.2%
Gunnar Watson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7INT
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:5889% → 89%
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
88.7%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 8 yds to the TROY 46Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+8
88.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 8 yds to the TROY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
88.9%
Will Howard pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8FG
14 plays · 73 yds · 6:4413% → 14%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
87.4%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the TROY 20Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
87.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+16
87.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 16 yds to the TROY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
87.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 2 yds to the TROY 38Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
87.1%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+12
87.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
50
-1
86.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 49Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+14
87.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 14 yds to the KSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
86.7%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 38Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+27
87.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Clayton Ollendieck for 27 yds to the KSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
86.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the KSU 9Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 8
OPP 9
-1
86.2%
Jarris Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 10Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+3
86.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 3 yds to the KSU 7Similar
Q2 3:46
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+24
86.1%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1787% → 87%
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.9%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
86.8%
DJ Giddens run for 3 yds to the KSU 28Similar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
86.5%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 5 yds to the KSU 33Similar
Q2 2:29
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
86.5%
Jack Blumer punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TROY 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3713% → 24%
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
87.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 30 yds to the KSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
85.9%
WATSON, Gunnar pass deep to the left incomplete intended for ROSS, Devonte thrown to the KSU25. PENALTY KSU Holding on SIGLE, Marques enforced 10 yards from the KSU45 to the KSU35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
85.4%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 36Similar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+15
86.0%
WATSON, Gunnar pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for ROGERS, Marcus thrown to the KSU19; QB hurried by PAYNE, VJ. PENALTY KSU Roughing the Passer on PAYNE, VJ enforced 15 yards from the KSU36 to the KSU21 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
85.1%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
85.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+21
76.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 21 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 11TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 0:3279% → 88%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
78.8%
Will Howard pass complete to RJ Garcia II for 10 yds to the KSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-8
80.3%
Will Howard sacked by Javon Solomon for a loss of 8 yards to the KSU 36Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 18
OWN 36
+15
78.6%
Will Howard run for 15 yds to the TROY 49Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+10
79.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 10 yds to the TROY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
88.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 39 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
85.9%
Gunnar Watson run for 5 yds to the TROY 46 Gunnar Watson fumbled, recovered by TROY Eli RussSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0514% → 13%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
86.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the TROY 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
86.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 5 yds to the TROY 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
86.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the TROY 34Similar
Q3 12:55
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
86.6%
Robert Cole punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2388% → 87%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
87.9%
DJ Giddens run for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 47Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 12
OPP 47
+4
87.7%
DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the TROY 43Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
87.3%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:32
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
86.8%
Jack Blumer punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TROY 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3213% → 12%
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
86.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 10
OWN 5
-12
86.7%
MARTIN, Asa rush up the middle for a gain of 12 yards to the TRO17 (MCCALISTER, Colby). PENALTY TRO Holding on RUSS, Eli enforced half the distance from the goal, 2 yards from the TRO5 to the TRO3 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 12
OWN 3
+3
86.7%
Asa Martin run for 3 yds to the TROY 6Similar
Q3 11:32
3RD & 9
OWN 6
0
87.3%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:00
4TH & 9
OWN 6
0
87.7%
Robert Cole punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1888% → 87%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
88.4%
Treshaun Ward run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 46Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 11
OPP 46
0
88.3%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+7
87.4%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 7 yds to the TROY 39Similar
Q3 10:00
4TH & 4
OPP 39
-5
87.2%
Kansas State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TROY 44Similar
Q3 8:42
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
87.2%
Jack Blumer punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Deshon Stoudemire at the TROY 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:3813% → 12%
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
86.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+1
86.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the TROY 11Similar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 9
OWN 11
-6
87.4%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Khalid Duke for a loss of 6 yards to the TROY 5Similar
Q3 7:04
4TH & 15
OWN 5
0
88.2%
Robert Cole punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 44 yds · 3:1789% → 96%
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
88.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 3 yds to the TROY 41Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 7
OPP 41
-2
88.9%
DJ Giddens run for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 43Similar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+15
88.3%
Troy Penalty, Personal Foul (Buddha Jones) to the TROY 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
88.9%
Treshaun Ward run for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 19Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 12
OPP 19
+1
88.9%
Treshaun Ward run for 1 yd to the TROY 18Similar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 11
OPP 18
+17
88.4%
Will Howard pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 17 yds to the TROY 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
88.9%
Treshaun Ward run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 2Similar
Q3 3:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.1%
Will Howard run for 2 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:285% → 5%
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 4 yds to the TROY 29Similar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-10
94.9%
Gunnar Watson sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the TROY 19Similar
Q3 2:19
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
95.4%
Robert Cole punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KSU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1996% → 96%
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
96.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 5 yds to the KSU 48Similar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+3
96.3%
DJ Giddens run for 3 yds to the TROY 49Similar
Q3 2:19
3RD & 2
OPP 49
0
96.2%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:00
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
96.3%
Jack Blumer punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Deshon Stoudemire at the TROY 19Similar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
95.6%
WATSON, Gunnar pass deep to the right incomplete intended for LEWIS, Deyunkrea thrown to the TRO45. PENALTY KSU Holding on SAVAGE, Kobe enforced 10 yards from the TRO19 to the TRO29 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21FG
6 plays · 62 yds · 2:025% → 7%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
95.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the TROY 31Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+46
95.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 46 yds to the KSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
95.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+4
95.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the KSU 19Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 19
0
95.3%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:58
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+37
93.2%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 22TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 5:0495% → 99%
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+40
95.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 40 yds to the TROY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
95.6%
Treshaun Ward run for 3 yds to the TROY 33Similar
Q4 13:52
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+3
95.6%
Treshaun Ward run for 3 yds to the TROY 30Similar
Q4 13:52
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+7
95.5%
Treshaun Ward run for 7 yds to the TROY 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
95.6%
Treshaun Ward run for 8 yds to the TROY 15Similar
Q4 13:52
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+6
95.6%
Treshaun Ward run for 6 yds to the TROY 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
95.6%
Treshaun Ward run for 3 yds to the TROY 6Similar
Q4 13:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
95.6%
Will Howard run for 5 yds to the TROY 1Similar
Q4 8:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:141% → 1%
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the TROY 27Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
99.0%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 5 yds to the TROY 32Similar
Q4 8:48
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
99.0%
Goose Crowder run for 2 yds to the TROY 34Similar
Q4 6:34
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
99.3%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the TROY 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 24TD
7 plays · 34 yds · 3:4499% → 100%
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+17
99.2%
DJ Giddens run for 17 yds to the TROY 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
99.2%
DJ Giddens run for 1 yd to the TROY 16Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+4
99.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 4 yds to the TROY 12Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+11
99.5%
Will Howard pass complete to RJ Garcia II for 11 yds to the TROY 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.5%
Will Howard run for no gain to the TROY 1Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Will Howard run for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 25FUMBLE
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:200% → 0%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Ethan Conner for 6 yds to the TROY 31Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+26
99.9%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Devonte Ross for 26 yds to the KSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Jarris Williams for no gain to the KSU 43Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Goose Crowder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+4
99.9%
Goose Crowder run for 4 yds to the KSU 39Similar
Q4 0:33
4TH & 6
OPP 39
+12
100.0%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 12 yds to the KSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-12
100.0%
Goose Crowder sacked for a loss of 12 yards to the KSU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
100.0%
Anthony Frias II run for 2 yds to the KSU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:52
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 21 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
-8.9
TD · Q2 0:10
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 39 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)
+8.7
TD · Q3 3:47
Will Howard run for 2 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)
+7.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com