2023 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023 · War Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadTTU aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scoreTTU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
OT 0:00 · John Michael Gyllenborg 11 Yd pass from Andrew Peasley (Sam Scott Run for Two-Point Conversion)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorTime remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 5:37: Sam Scott run for 16 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +20.7 pts (now 47%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- FG · Q4 8:58: John Hoyland 31 yd FG GOOD — WYO win probability +16.1 pts (now 66%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:41: Gino Garcia 27 yd FG GOOD — TTU win probability +25.2 pts (now 57%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: Jerand Bradley 15 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — TTU win probability +31.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: John Michael Gyllenborg 11 Yd pass from Andrew Peasley (Sam Scott Run for Two-Point Conversion) — WYO win probability +51.3 pts (now 80%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 7 of 8TTU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
- Q1 12:23WYO 4th & 8 at WYO 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snapGo for it21.3%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.3%average punt
- Q1 7:43WYO 4th & 6 at WYO 29, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snapGo for it20.1%−0.239% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.3%average punt
- Q1 6:47TTU 4th & 6 at TTU 33, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.3% before the snapGo for it80.3%−0.339% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.6%average punt
- Q1 4:02TTU 4th & 14 at WYO 36, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.5% before the snapGo for it80.3%−0.419% to convertField goalTheir call80.7%42% to makePunt80.5%−0.2average punt
- Q2 14:55WYO 4th & 3 at TTU 38, down 17Close callKicked a field goal · 18.0% before the snapGo for it18.2%53% to convertField goalTheir call17.5%−0.738% to makePunt17.5%−0.8average punt
- Q2 8:53TTU 4th & 4 at TTU 46, up 7Close callPunted · 76.4% before the snapGo for it76.4%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.3%−0.1average punt
- Q2 5:40WYO 4th & 10 at WYO 35, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snapGo for it22.6%−1.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.7%average punt
- Q2 5:40TTU 4th & 2 at TTU 44, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call77.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt76.6%−0.3average punt
- Q2 2:27TTU 4th & 9 at TTU 48, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.9% before the snapGo for it76.3%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.3%average punt
- Q2 0:29WYO 4th & 4 at WYO 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.1% before the snapGo for it24.5%−0.248% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.7%average punt
- Q3 13:08TTU 4th & 8 at TTU 24, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.1% before the snapGo for it74.5%−1.432% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.9%average punt
- Q3 13:08WYO 4th & 2 at TTU 31, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call26.2%57% to convertField goal24.3%−1.954% to makePunt22.8%−3.4average punt
- Q3 5:37TTU 4th & 3 at WYO 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call61.5%53% to convertField goal59.1%−2.447% to makePunt57.8%−3.7average punt
- Q3 0:12TTU 4th & 6 at WYO 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.2% before the snapGo for it56.8%−0.739% to convertField goalTheir call57.6%72% to makePunt44.6%−12.9average punt
- Q4 8:58WYO 4th & 8 at TTU 13, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.7% before the snapGo for it50.6%−2.230% to convertField goalTheir call52.9%85% to makePunt31.6%−21.3average punt
- Q4 5:06TTU 4th & 12 at WYO 32, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.8% before the snapGo for it31.3%−4.223% to convertField goalTheir call35.5%51% to makePunt29.2%−6.3average punt
- Q4 3:39WYO 4th & 7 at WYO 35, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.7% before the snapGo for it73.1%−3.637% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.8%average punt
- Q4 0:41TTU 4th & 5 at WYO 9, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.5% before the snapGo for it17.0%−21.136% to convertField goalTheir call38.1%89% to makePunt6.3%−31.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TTU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 10:34TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.3%97% to makeGo for two78.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:25TTU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.2%97% to makeGo for two79.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:20WYO Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call23.3%97% to makeGo for two23.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:37WYO Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call40.2%97% to makeGo for two40.0%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWYODrive 1PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 2:3716% → 17%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 2TD6 plays · 76 yds · 1:4983% → 83%
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
17.3%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Myles Price for 8 yds to the TTU 32Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+4
17.2%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Myles Price for 4 yds to the TTU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+20
17.2%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 20 yds to the WYO 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
16.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Myles Price for 33 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 3FUMBLE2 plays · 1 yds · 0:2717% → 17%
TTUDrive 4TD2 plays · 26 yds · 0:4283% → 84%
WYODrive 5PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4217% → 17%
TTUDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5684% → 84%
WYODrive 7FUMBLE5 plays · 16 yds · 1:3517% → 17%
TTUDrive 8FG4 plays · -4 yds · 1:1084% → 85%
WYODrive 9FG10 plays · 37 yds · 4:0715% → 17%
Q1 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
14.9%
Texas Tech Penalty, Personal Foul (Jesiah Pierre) to the WYO 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+7
15.3%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Treyton Welch for 7 yds to the TTU 37Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 37
-1
15.2%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the TTU 38 fumbled, recovered by WYO Andrew PeasleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10INT2 plays · 7 yds · 0:5984% → 85%
WYODrive 11TD6 plays · 56 yds · 2:3017% → 23%
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+18
17.3%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Ayir Asante for 18 yds to the TTU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
17.6%
Texas Tech Penalty, Personal Foul (Jesiah Pierre) to the TTU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
17.6%
PEASLEY, Andrew pass short to the right incomplete intended for ASANTE, Ayir thrown to the TTU5. PENALTY TTU Holding enforced half the distance from the goal, 4 yards from the TTU8 to the TTU4 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
23.4%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Caleb Driskill for 4 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 21 yds · 2:2779% → 79%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
20.8%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Drae McCray for 15 yds to the TTU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-2
20.0%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the TTU 42 fumbled, recovered by TTU Tyler ShoughSimilar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+4
20.3%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Myles Price for 4 yds to the TTU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 13PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 3:1322% → 21%
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
21.7%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Sam Scott for a loss of 4 yards to the WYO 16Similar
Q2 8:53
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+19
21.6%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Treyton Welch for 19 yds to the WYO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:53
3RD & 7
OWN 38
-3
21.8%
Andrew Peasley sacked by Trent Low and E'Maurion Banks for a loss of 3 yards to the WYO 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 14PUNT10 plays · 26 yds · 3:1379% → 79%
WYODrive 15PUNT11 plays · 35 yds · 1:5822% → 23%
Q2 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+15
22.6%
PEASLEY, Andrew pass deep to the right intercepted by LUX, Bralyn at the WYO43 intended for WIELAND, Wyatt. Lux return for 9 yards to the WYO34 (WIELAND, Wyatt), clock 01:30. PENALTY TTU Personal Foul enforced 15 yards from the WYO24 to the WYO39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 16MISSED FG4 plays · 48 yds · 0:2978% → 82%
TTUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4479% → 77%
Q3 14:52
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+4
20.6%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Xavier White for 4 yds to the TTU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 18TD13 plays · 76 yds · 7:3123% → 47%
Q3 13:08
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+25
22.9%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 25 yds to the TTU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+5
25.0%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to John Michael Gyllenborg for 5 yds to the TTU 31Similar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
26.4%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 8 yds to the TTU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 19MISSED FG14 plays · 53 yds · 5:2562% → 60%
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
38.1%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Xavier White for 10 yds to the TTU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
37.2%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 4 yds to the TTU 39Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+10
35.2%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Mason Tharp for 10 yds to the TTU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+8
36.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Drae McCray for 8 yds to the WYO 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
32.8%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Drae McCray for 5 yds to the WYO 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 20FG15 plays · 65 yds · 6:0246% → 66%
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+5
44.6%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Ryan Marquez for 5 yds to the WYO 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+32
45.3%
Andrew Peasley run for 17 yds to the TTU 48 for a 1ST down Texas Tech Penalty, Personal Foul (TEAM) to the TTU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
52.2%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Treyton Welch for 5 yds to the TTU 20Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+5
50.3%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to John Michael Gyllenborg for 5 yds to the TTU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 21MISSED FG11 plays · 43 yds · 3:5239% → 34%
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
60.6%
Tyler Shough sacked by Braden Siders for a loss of 5 yards to the TTU 20Similar
Q4 8:58
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+29
63.2%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 29 yds to the TTU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+6
55.3%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Xavier White for 6 yds to the WYO 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
54.6%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 10 yds to the WYO 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 6
OPP 26
-6
52.2%
Tyler Shough sacked by Jaden Williams for a loss of 6 yards to the WYO 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 22PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2771% → 74%
Q4 3:39
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
74.4%
Clayton Stewart punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Myles Price at the TTU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 23FG15 plays · 69 yds · 2:5833% → 57%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
66.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 6 yds to the TTU 28Similar
Q4 3:39
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+8
66.7%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Xavier White for 8 yds to the TTU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
64.4%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Myles Price for 6 yds to the TTU 42Similar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
60.1%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 15 yds to the WYO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 15
OPP 41
+27
62.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jordan Brown for 27 yds to the WYO 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+2
56.5%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Tahj Brooks for 2 yds to the WYO 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 24END OF HALF2 plays · 4 yds · 0:4156% → 60%
WYODrive 25TD5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0066% → 75%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
65.6%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Sam Scott for 2 yds to the TTU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 26TD4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0020% → 21%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 27TD5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0059% → 90%
WYODrive 28TD7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0032% → 80%
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
John Michael Gyllenborg 11 Yd pass from Andrew Peasley (Sam Scott Run for Two-Point Conversion)
+51.3
TD · OT 0:00
Jerand Bradley 15 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-31.3
FG · Q4 0:41
Gino Garcia 27 yd FG GOOD
-25.2