Try the model
RICE

Rice 10 at Texas 37

TEX
2023 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadRICE aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreRICE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:40 · Conor Hunt punt for 40 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 9Pregame prior+43.9Home team on offense+1.1Score differential+0.1Blowout margin+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:00: CJ Baxter Jr. run for 4 yds to the TEX 29 — RICE win probability +1.3 pts (now 4%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 7:51: Bert Auburn 46 Yd Field Goal — TEX win probability +1.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Jonathon Brooks run for 3 yds to the RICE 35 — TEX win probability +1.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:33: Ja'Tavion Sanders 44 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick) — TEX win probability +1.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:37: Adonai Mitchell 9 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick) — TEX win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 5 of 5RICE made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 10:07RICE 4th & 12 at TEX 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:48RICE 4th & 7 at RICE 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:40RICE 4th & 6 at RICE 19, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:59TEX 4th & 8 at RICE 9, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    95.0%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:51TEX 4th & 18 at RICE 28, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−0.4
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    95.3%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:08TEX 4th & 1 at RICE 24, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    95.8%−0.4
    68% to make
    Punt
    94.6%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:25RICE 4th & 8 at RICE 39, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:17RICE 4th & 7 at RICE 38, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:41RICE 4th & 1 at RICE 44, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:32RICE 4th & 16 at RICE 19, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:28TEX 4th & 29 at RICE 38, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    38% to make
    Punt
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:00RICE 4th & 1 at TEX 11, down 37
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%
    87% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:21TEX 4th & 12 at TEX 30, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 7:27TEX Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 5:33TEX Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:57TEX Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TEXDrive 1DOWNS
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 13:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
98.2%
pass incomplete to Ja'Tavion SandersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 2FG
1 play · 8 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 10:07
4TH & 12
OPP 25
+43
97.9%
Tim Horn 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 7:2798% → 96%
Q1 7:27
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+37
97.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jonathon Brooks for 37 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
96.3%
CJ Baxter Jr. run for 4 yds to the TEX 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 4PUNT
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 5:48
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
97.5%
Conor Hunt punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 6PUNT
1 play · 4 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 1:40
4TH & 6
OWN 19
0
96.8%
Conor Hunt punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7FG
5 plays · 50 yds · 2:0197% → 97%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+26
97.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 26 yds to the RICE 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
97.1%
Jonathon Brooks run for 2 yds to the RICE 9Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
97.1%
Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
97.0%
pass incomplete to Jonathon BrooksSimilar
Q2 12:59
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+27
96.7%
Bert Auburn 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 8INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.0%
JT Daniels pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 9INT
7 plays · 34 yds · 9:534% → 5%
Q2 9:53
3RD & 16
OWN 48
0
96.3%
JT Daniels pass interceptedSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
94.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Dean Connors for 4 yds to the RICE 18Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 18
0
96.0%
pass incomplete to Boden GroenSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+36
96.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Braylen Walker for 36 yds to the TEX 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
95.5%
Dean Connors run for 3 yds to the TEX 43Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-9
95.5%
JT Daniels sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the RICE 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10FG
8 plays · 36 yds · 7:5197% → 97%
Q2 7:51
4TH & 18
OPP 28
+46
96.9%
Bert Auburn 46 Yd Field Goal Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+32
96.6%
CJ Baxter Jr. run for 32 yds to the RICE 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
96.8%
Jonathon Brooks run for 6 yds to the RICE 26Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+6
96.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 6 yds to the RICE 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-3
96.8%
Jonathon Brooks run for a loss of 3 yards to the RICE 23Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 13
OPP 23
0
96.8%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Ja'Tavion Sanders, broken up by Jonathan JeanSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 23
-5
96.6%
Texas Penalty, false start (DJ Campbell) to the RICE 28Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 18
OPP 28
0
96.5%
pass incomplete to Ja'Tavion SandersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 6:0897% → 97%
Q2 6:08
4TH & 1
OPP 24
0
96.9%
Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
97.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy Texas Penalty, illegal touching (Xavier Worthy) to the RICE 33Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+6
97.2%
Jonathon Brooks run for 6 yds to the RICE 27Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+3
97.1%
Keilan Robinson run for 3 yds to the RICE 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 4:253% → 4%
Q2 4:25
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
96.9%
Conor Hunt punt for 58 ydsSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
96.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Juma Otoviano for 13 yds to the RICE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
96.4%
Braylen Walker run for 2 yds to the RICE 39Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
96.3%
pass incomplete to Braylen WalkerSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
96.4%
pass incomplete to Luke McCaffreySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13FG
15 plays · 66 yds · 0:2998% → 99%
Q2 0:29
2ND & 2
OPP 35
-7
97.5%
Quinn Ewers sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the RICE 42Similar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+11
97.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Keilan Robinson for 11 yds to the RICE 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
97.1%
pass incomplete to Adonai MitchellSimilar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
97.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion SandersSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+17
97.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 17 yds to the TEX 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-12
97.0%
Quinn Ewers sacked for a loss of 12 yards to the TEX 8Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 22
OWN 8
+18
97.0%
Jonathon Brooks run for 18 yds to the TEX 26Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+5
96.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jonathon Brooks for 5 yds to the TEX 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
97.1%
pass incomplete to Xavier WorthySimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+10
97.0%
Jaydon Blue run for 10 yds to the TEX 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
97.2%
Jaydon Blue run for 4 yds to the TEX 45Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 45
-2
97.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for a loss of 2 yards to the TEX 43Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+14
97.0%
Quinn Ewers run for 14 yds to the RICE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
97.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm Rice Penalty, substitution infraction (Dean Connors) to the RICE 38Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 5
OPP 38
+3
98.5%
Jonathon Brooks run for 3 yds to the RICE 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14TD
1 play · 44 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
99.8%
Ja'Tavion Sanders 44 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 15PUNT
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 13:17
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+21
99.1%
Conor Hunt punt for 45 yds , Xavier Worthy returns for 21 yds to the TEX 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16TD
1 play · 62 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 9:37
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+9
99.7%
Adonai Mitchell 9 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 17DOWNS
6 plays · 27 yds · 3:040% → 0%
Q3 8:45
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+14
99.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to JoVoni Johnson-McCray for 14 yds to the RICE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Boden Groen for 5 yds to the RICE 40Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
99.7%
Dean Connors run for 3 yds to the RICE 43Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
99.7%
Luke McCaffrey run for 1 yd to the RICE 44Similar
Q3 5:41
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
99.8%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 18PUNT
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 4:32
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
99.8%
Conor Hunt punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19TD
1 play · 54 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 0:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Quinn Ewers 1 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 20FUMBLE
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:060% → 0%
Q3 0:06
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-2
99.9%
Quinton Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the RICE 32 Quinton Jackson fumbled, recovered by TEX Jett BushSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Quinton Jackson for 9 yds to the RICE 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21MISSED FG
9 plays · -6 yds · 2:32100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
99.9%
pass incomplete to Johntay Cook IISimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 28
-5
99.9%
Texas Penalty, false start (Jake Majors) to the RICE 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 33
+14
99.9%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Isaiah Neyor for 14 yds to the RICE 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-15
99.9%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Johntay Cook II Texas Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Patrick Bayouth) to the RICE 34Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 25
OPP 34
-15
99.9%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Juan Davis Texas Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Hayden Conner) to the RICE 49Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 40
OPP 49
+2
99.9%
Jaydon Blue run for 2 yds to the RICE 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 38
OPP 47
+9
99.9%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Johntay Cook II for 9 yds to the RICE 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 29
OPP 38
0
99.9%
pass incomplete to Isaiah NeyorSimilar
Q4 12:28
4TH & 29
OPP 38
+56
99.9%
Bert Auburn 56 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 22TD
15 plays · 62 yds · 3:040% → 0%
Q4 3:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
100.0%
Luke McCaffrey 15 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Tim Horn Kick)Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
100.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Boden Groen for 7 yds to the RICE 45Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+5
100.0%
Dean Connors run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
50
+13
100.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Boden Groen for 13 yds to the TEX 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
100.0%
Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+6
100.0%
Tre'shon Devones run for 6 yds to the TEX 31Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+11
100.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Braylen Walker for 11 yds to the TEX 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-3
100.0%
Juma Otoviano run for a loss of 3 yards to the TEX 23Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 13
OPP 23
+9
100.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kobie Campbell for 9 yds to the TEX 14Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+3
100.0%
Dean Connors run for 3 yds to the TEX 11Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+4
99.9%
Daelen Alexander run for 4 yds to the TEX 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
100.0%
Rice Penalty, illegal formation (Dean Connors) to the TEX 12Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
-5
100.0%
Rice Penalty, delay of game (Dean Connors) to the TEX 17Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 17
-2
100.0%
Dean Connors run for a loss of 2 yards to the TEX 19Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 19
+4
100.0%
JT Daniels run for 4 yds to the TEX 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:21100% → 100%
Q4 0:21
4TH & 12
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 44 ydsSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+17
100.0%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Johntay Cook II for 17 yds to the TEX 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
100.0%
Savion Red run for a loss of 1 yard to the TEX 31Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+8
100.0%
Savion Red run for 8 yds to the TEX 39Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 39
-9
100.0%
Savion Red run for a loss of 9 yards to the TEX 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 24Uncategorized
1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
100.0%
Dean Connors run for 4 yds to the RICE 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 7:51
Bert Auburn 46 Yd Field Goal
+1.4
TD · Q3 5:33
Ja'Tavion Sanders 44 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)
+1.4
TD · Q1 0:00
CJ Baxter Jr. run for 4 yds to the TEX 29
-1.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com