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CARK

Central Arkansas 13 at Oklahoma State 27

OKST
2023 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023 · Boone Pickens Stadium
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Win probability · OKST
modelOKST aheadCARK aheadconfidence bandkey playOKST scoreCARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q2Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-2.4OKST 97.0%Will McElvain pass complete toChristian Richmond for 2 yds for a TD(Jake Gaster PAT BLOCKED)AWAY 13 - HOME 27 · Q4 3:28
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:28 · Will McElvain pass complete to Christian Richmond for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Gaster PAT BLOCKED)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q2Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 177Pregame prior+4.2Home team on offense+24.6Score differential+10.2Garbage-time factor+6.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.9Time remaining+3.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:00: Alex Hale 45 yd FG GOOD — OKST win probability +1.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:37: Will McElvain pass complete to Kylin James for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Gaster KICK) — CARK win probability +8.0 pts (now 15%) (top driver: CARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:44: Elijah Collins run for 17 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK) — OKST win probability +6.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:54: Ollie Gordon II run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK) — OKST win probability +2.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:28: Will McElvain pass complete to Christian Richmond for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Gaster PAT BLOCKED) — CARK win probability +2.4 pts (now 3%) (top driver: CARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OKST made the numbers' call on 4 of 9CARK made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q2 1:04OKST 4th & 10 at CARK 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    83.0%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:24OKST 4th & 3 at CARK 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    93.5%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    93.4%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:45CARK 4th & 10 at OKST 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    7.5%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:11CARK 4th & 6 at CARK 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:15OKST 4th & 2 at OKST 46, up 7
    Close callPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:38CARK 4th & 9 at CARK 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:53OKST 4th & 2 at OKST 30, up 7
    Close callPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:33CARK 4th & 12 at CARK 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:33OKST 4th & 1 at CARK 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    90.7%−0.5
    84% to make
    Punt
    89.2%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:34OKST 4th & 8 at CARK 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    88.4%−1.9
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:59CARK 4th & 14 at CARK 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−0.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:00OKST 4th & 10 at CARK 28, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    87.9%−2.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:22CARK 4th & 12 at OKST 28, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.8%
    60% to make
    Punt
    5.3%−1.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:16OKST 4th & 4 at CARK 42, up 13
    Close callPunted · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    92.8%−0.9
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.2%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:37OKST 4th & 3 at OKST 27, up 6
    Close callPunted · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:41CARK 4th & 13 at CARK 43, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−2.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:35CARK 4th & 6 at CARK 29, down 13
    Close callPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OKST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CARK made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 2:58OKST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 4:37CARK Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:44OKST Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:54OKST Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−0.4
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:28CARK Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    2.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OKSTDrive 1PUNT
14 plays · 36 yds · 1:5587% → 86%
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
86.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Jaden Nixon for 6 yds to the OKST 14Similar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+19
86.7%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Talyn Shettron for 19 yds to the OKST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
87.1%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Blaine Green for 2 yds to the OKST 35Similar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+5
87.1%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Jaden Nixon for 5 yds to the OKST 40Similar
Q2 2:59
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+6
87.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Jaden Bray for 6 yds to the OKST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
87.6%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Ollie Gordon IISimilar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
87.2%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Landon DeanSimilar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+5
86.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bowman,Alan pass incomplete short left to Presley,Brennan QB hurried by Golday,Jake PENALTY UCA Illegal Substitution 5 yards from OSU46 to UCA49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+5
87.6%
PENALTY UCA Offside (Clark,Bradley) 5 yards from UCA49 to UCA44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
88.0%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Blaine GreenSimilar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
87.9%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Jaden BraySimilar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
87.2%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q2 1:04
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
86.1%
Hudson Kaak punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 2Uncategorized
3 plays · 23 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q4 3:28
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
64.8%
Elijah Collins run for 8 yds to the OKST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
65.2%
Jaden Nixon run for 8 yds to the OKST 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 3INT
12 plays · 50 yds · 4:3296% → 95%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
95.7%
Ollie Gordon II run for 4 yds to the OKST 24Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
95.7%
Ollie Gordon II run for 3 yds to the OKST 27Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+8
95.7%
Garret Rangel pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 8 yds to the OKST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
95.7%
Garret Rangel pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 14 yds to the OKST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
95.7%
Garret Rangel run for 6 yds to the CARK 45Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 4
OPP 45
0
95.7%
Garret Rangel pass incomplete to Jaden BraySimilar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+8
95.7%
Garret Rangel pass complete to Jaden Bray for 8 yds to the CARK 37 for a 1ST down Central Arkansas Penalty, Defensive Offside (Andrew Hayes) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
95.7%
Jaden Nixon run for 6 yds to the CARK 31Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+2
95.7%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the CARK 29Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+1
95.7%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the CARK 30Similar
Q1 10:24
4TH & 3
OPP 30
0
94.9%
Garret Rangel pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 4MISSED FG
17 plays · 59 yds · 4:395% → 6%
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
94.8%
Darius Hale run for 4 yds to the CARK 35Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+12
94.8%
Will McElvain pass complete to Myles Butler for 12 yds to the CARK 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
94.7%
ShunDerrick Powell run for 5 yds to the OKST 48Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+25
94.7%
ShunDerrick Powell run for 25 yds to the OKST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
94.7%
Darius Hale run for 3 yds to the OKST 20Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 7
OPP 20
-5
94.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun McElvain,Will pass complete short middle to Richmond,Christian for 20 yards to the OSU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 08:08 PENALTY UCA Ineligible Downfield on Pass 5 yards from OSU20 to OSU25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 12
OPP 25
+10
94.1%
Will McElvain pass complete to Kylin James for 25 yds Central Arkansas Penalty, Personal Foul (Javeon Jones) to the OKST 30Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 17
OPP 30
+5
94.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun McElvain,Will pass incomplete deep right to Barnes,Jarrod PENALTY OSU Illegal Substitution (Kelley,Aden) 5 yards from OSU30 to OSU25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 12
OPP 25
+7
94.1%
Will McElvain run for 7 yds to the OKST 18Similar
Q1 8:01
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+12
94.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun McElvain,Will pass incomplete short left to Butler,Myles, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY OSU Pass Interference (Rucker,Trey) 12 yards from OSU18 to OSU06, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
94.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun McElvain,Will pass incomplete short right to Oliver,Trustin PENALTY UCA Illegal Formation 5 yards from OSU06 to OSU11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+2
93.9%
ShunDerrick Powell run for 2 yds to the OKST 13Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+3
93.9%
Will McElvain pass complete to ShunDerrick Powell for 3 yds to the OKST 10Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
93.7%
Will McElvain pass incomplete to Jarrod BarnesSimilar
Q1 5:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
93.8%
Jake Gaster 28 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Korie BlackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 5TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:4794% → 95%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
93.9%
Garret Rangel pass incomplete to De'Zhaun StriblingSimilar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+30
93.9%
Garret Rangel pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
50
0
94.2%
Garret Rangel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 10
50
+22
94.1%
Garret Rangel pass complete to Ollie Gordon II for 22 yds to the CARK 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
94.3%
Garret Rangel pass complete to Brennan Presley for 2 yds to the CARK 26Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+4
94.3%
Garret Rangel pass complete to Jaden Bray for 4 yds to the CARK 22Similar
Q1 5:45
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+10
94.2%
Garret Rangel run for 10 yds to the CARK 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
94.3%
Garret Rangel pass complete to Ollie Gordon II for 1 yd to the CARK 11Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+11
94.6%
Garret Rangel pass complete to Brennan Presley for 11 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:436% → 6%
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
94.3%
Will McElvain pass incomplete to Jarrod BarnesSimilar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+4
94.3%
Will McElvain pass complete to Christian Richmond for 4 yds to the CARK 17Similar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 6
OWN 17
0
94.3%
Will McElvain pass incomplete to Austin EldridgeSimilar
Q1 2:11
4TH & 6
OWN 17
0
94.1%
Chandler Caughron punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKST 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5694% → 94%
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
94.2%
Garret Rangel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
94.2%
Jaden Nixon run for 5 yds to the OKST 43Similar
Q1 2:11
3RD & 5
OWN 43
-15
94.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Rangel,Garret pass complete short right to Stewart,Quinton for 27 yards to the UCA30 (Williams,TD) PENALTY OSU UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Birmingham,Cole) 15 yards from OSU43 to OSU28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:11
3RD & 20
OWN 28
+18
93.9%
Garret Rangel pass complete to Jaden Nixon for 18 yds to the OKST 46Similar
Q1 0:15
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
93.8%
Wes Pahl punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:226% → 7%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
93.6%
Will McElvain pass complete to Myles Butler for 7 yds to the CARK 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+5
93.5%
Will McElvain pass complete to Tra Green for 5 yds to the CARK 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
93.5%
ShunDerrick Powell run for 1 yd to the CARK 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
93.6%
Will McElvain pass incomplete to ShunDerrick PowellSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
93.7%
Will McElvain pass incomplete to KeMari ClarkSimilar
Q2 13:38
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
93.5%
Chandler Caughron punt for 45 yds , Brennan Presley returns for no gain to the OKST 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4594% → 93%
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
93.5%
Elijah Collins run for 6 yds to the OKST 28Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+2
93.6%
Garret Rangel run for 2 yds to the OKST 30Similar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 2
OWN 30
0
93.4%
Elijah Collins run for no gain to the OKST 30Similar
Q2 11:53
4TH & 2
OWN 30
+5
92.9%
Wes Pahl punt for 60 yds , Jarrod Barnes returns for 5 yds to the CARK 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:207% → 7%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
93.1%
Darius Hale run for 2 yds to the CARK 13Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 12
OWN 13
-6
93.1%
Will McElvain sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the CARK 7Similar
Q2 11:53
3RD & 18
OWN 7
-3
93.4%
PENALTY UCA Delay Of Game 3 yards from UCA07 to UCA04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:53
3RD & 21
OWN 4
+9
93.4%
Kylin James run for 9 yds to the CARK 13Similar
Q2 9:33
4TH & 12
OWN 13
0
93.0%
Chandler Caughron punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CARK 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 11FG
11 plays · 31 yds · 3:5993% → 93%
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
93.2%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Jaden BraySimilar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+9
93.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 9 yds to the CARK 31Similar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+8
93.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 8 yds to the CARK 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
93.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Jaden Bray for 9 yds to the CARK 14Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 1
OPP 14
0
93.4%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Jaden BraySimilar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+1
93.2%
run for 1 yd to the CARK 14Similar
Q2 9:33
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+3
93.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 3 yds to the CARK 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
93.4%
Brennan Presley run for 5 yds to the CARK 6Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+3
93.4%
Jaden Nixon run for 3 yds to the CARK 9Similar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
93.2%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:34
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+36
93.0%
Alex Hale 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 12Uncategorized
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:357% → 7%
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.1%
ShunDerrick Powell run for no gain to the CARK 29Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
93.0%
Will McElvain sacked by Nickolas Martin for a loss of 1 yard to the CARK 28Similar
Q2 5:34
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
93.3%
Will McElvain pass complete to Kam Robinson for 15 yds to the CARK 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
92.8%
ShunDerrick Powell run for 2 yds to the CARK 45Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+6
92.8%
ShunDerrick Powell run for 6 yds to the CARK 39Similar
Q2 5:34
3RD & 14
OWN 39
0
93.3%
Central Arkansas Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jarrod Barnes) declinedSimilar
Q2 2:59
4TH & 14
OWN 39
0
93.3%
Chandler Caughron punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · 38 yds · 0:447% → 8%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
92.8%
Will McElvain pass complete to Myles Butler for 9 yds to the CARK 24Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+11
92.5%
Will McElvain pass complete to Christian Richmond for 11 yds to the CARK 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
92.4%
Will McElvain pass complete to Jarrod Barnes for 18 yds Jarrod Barnes fumbled, recovered by OKST Kendal DanielsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 14FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2094% → 95%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
93.5%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
93.4%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
92.9%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Talyn ShettronSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+45
94.7%
Alex Hale 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 15MISSED FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 3:386% → 6%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
94.1%
ShunDerrick Powell run for 15 yds to the CARK 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
93.9%
Will McElvain pass complete to Christian Richmond for 13 yds to the OKST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
93.6%
Will McElvain sacked by Collin Clay for a loss of 5 yards to the CARK 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 48
+10
94.1%
Will McElvain pass complete to Darius Hale for 10 yds to the OKST 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+16
93.6%
Darius Hale run for 16 yds to the OKST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
93.1%
Will McElvain pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
93.2%
Will McElvain pass incomplete to Christian RichmondSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 26
-2
93.6%
Will McElvain sacked by Xavier Ross for a loss of 2 yards to the OKST 28Similar
Q3 11:22
4TH & 12
OPP 28
+46
94.3%
Jake Gaster 46 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Korie BlackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 3:0695% → 95%
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
94.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 5 yds to the OKST 33Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+7
94.8%
Jaden Nixon run for 7 yds to the OKST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
95.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Jaden Nixon for 12 yds to the CARK 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
95.0%
Alan Bowman sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 12
50
+4
94.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 4 yds to the CARK 46Similar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+4
94.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 4 yds to the CARK 42Similar
Q3 8:16
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
94.6%
Hudson Kaak punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 17TD
8 plays · 95 yds · 3:395% → 15%
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+12
94.7%
Kylin James run for 12 yds to the CARK 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+29
94.4%
Will McElvain pass complete to Kylin James for 29 yds to the CARK 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
93.9%
Will McElvain pass complete to Kylin James for 12 yds to the OKST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+27
93.6%
ShunDerrick Powell run for 27 yds to the OKST 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
93.1%
Will McElvain pass complete to Jarrod Barnes for 13 yds to the OKST 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
93.1%
ShunDerrick Powell run for 1 yd to the OKST 1Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
93.1%
Darius Hale run for no gain to the OKST 1Similar
Q3 4:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.1%
Will McElvain pass complete to Kylin James for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Gaster KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0088% → 87%
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
87.7%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the OKST 22Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
87.6%
Gunnar Gundy pass complete to Blaine Green for no gain to the OKST 22Similar
Q3 4:37
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+5
87.0%
Gunnar Gundy pass complete to Blaine Green for 5 yds to the OKST 27Similar
Q3 2:37
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
86.9%
Hudson Kaak punt for 40 yds , Jarrod Barnes returns for no gain to the CARK 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 2:5614% → 13%
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-10
86.2%
Central Arkansas Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the CARK 25Similar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 18
OWN 25
+7
86.9%
Will McElvain pass complete to ShunDerrick Powell for 7 yds to the CARK 32Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+2
86.7%
ShunDerrick Powell run for 2 yds to the CARK 34Similar
Q3 2:37
3RD & 9
OWN 34
-5
87.2%
PENALTY UCA Illegal Snap (Cox,Jacob) 5 yards from UCA34 to UCA29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:37
3RD & 14
OWN 29
+17
87.5%
Will McElvain pass complete to Jarrod Barnes for 17 yds to the CARK 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
83.6%
ShunDerrick Powell run for 3 yds to the CARK 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 43
0
85.4%
Will McElvain pass incomplete to Jarrod BarnesSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 43
0
86.0%
Will McElvain pass incomplete to Jarrod BarnesSimilar
Q4 14:41
4TH & 13
OWN 43
0
86.7%
Chandler Caughron punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 20TD
12 plays · 93 yds · 3:5788% → 97%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
87.8%
Gunnar Gundy pass incomplete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 10
OWN 7
-4
87.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Gordon,Ollie rush middle for 43 yards gain to the OSU50 (Clark,KeMari) PENALTY OSU Holding (Cooper,Dalton) 4 yards from OSU07 to OSU03. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 14
OWN 3
+17
87.7%
Ollie Gordon II run for 17 yds to the OKST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
88.2%
Ollie Gordon II run for 1 yd to the OKST 21Similar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+5
88.1%
Gunnar Gundy pass complete to Brennan Presley for 5 yds to the OKST 26Similar
Q4 12:33
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+8
88.8%
Gunnar Gundy pass complete to Jaden Nixon for 8 yds to the OKST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+21
89.3%
Gunnar Gundy pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 21 yds to the CARK 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
90.7%
Gunnar Gundy pass incomplete to Jaden NixonSimilar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+28
90.5%
Gunnar Gundy pass complete to Brennan Presley for 28 yds to the CARK 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
96.9%
Elijah Collins run for 17 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:034% → 3%
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
96.5%
Will McElvain pass complete to Christian Richmond for 8 yds to the CARK 20Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+5
96.2%
Kylin James run for 5 yds to the CARK 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
96.4%
Will McElvain pass complete to Austin Eldridge for 8 yds to the CARK 33Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-4
96.0%
Will McElvain sacked by Nathan Latu for a loss of 4 yards to the CARK 29Similar
Q4 10:38
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
96.3%
Will McElvain pass incomplete to Myles ButlerSimilar
Q4 8:35
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
96.6%
Chandler Caughron punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKST 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 22TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 2:4197% → 99%
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+39
96.8%
Gunnar Gundy pass complete to Jaden Bray for 39 yds to the CARK 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
97.1%
Ollie Gordon II run for 2 yds to the CARK 37Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+15
97.1%
Ollie Gordon II run for 15 yds to the CARK 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
97.2%
Gunnar Gundy run for 4 yds to the CARK 18Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+16
97.2%
Gunnar Gundy run for 16 yds to the CARK 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.4%
Ollie Gordon II run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 23TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 2:261% → 3%
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+46
99.5%
Will McElvain pass complete to Jarrod Barnes for 46 yds to the OKST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.4%
Will McElvain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+11
99.4%
Darius Hale run for 11 yds to the OKST 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
99.3%
Darius Hale run for 5 yds to the OKST 8Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
99.3%
Will McElvain pass incomplete to Christian RichmondSimilar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+6
99.4%
Will McElvain pass complete to Darius Hale for 6 yds to the OKST 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.0%
Will McElvain pass complete to Christian Richmond for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Gaster PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 24END OF GAME
5 plays · 23 yds · 3:2898% → 99%
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.3%
Elijah Collins run for 7 yds to the OKST 32Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+4
98.7%
Jaden Nixon run for 4 yds to the CARK 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
98.7%
Kneel down by Oklahoma St. at UCA50 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 12
50
-2
98.7%
Kneel down by Oklahoma St. at OSU48 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:37
Will McElvain pass complete to Kylin James for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Gaster KICK)
-8
TD · Q4 10:44
Elijah Collins run for 17 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK)
+6.3
TD · Q4 3:28
Will McElvain pass complete to Christian Richmond for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Gaster PAT BLOCKED)
-2.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com